GameFAQs Contests

What constitutes substantial though?

The minute you bank, you would start losing your lead at an alarming pace to anyone still left, but assuming you currently have the better streak, you are still gaining on them (though obviously you'd lose faster than your gaining now.)

I think it comes down to "How many people do you think can navigate through the post KH/KH2 matches perfectly that are in a position to pass you?"
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (99/116) MGS4 v Diablo II

I could take a few minutes to look at it and probably actually come up with the leads you'd need for all the scenarios, I suppose.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (99/116) MGS4 v Diablo II

I lost the battle challenge chance on two simple Round 2 mistakes anyway :
Banked on Halo > Halo 3 (was obviously Halo). Streak of 15300.
Then lost 9100 on Golden Sun.

Then I just went into "screw it, I'm going for the karma now" and banked on Portal-FFXII to stay safely ahead of SBAllen.
So now, if I get a streak and I face a risky match, I'll look at SBAllen's score to decide if I bank or not.
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"You have enemies? Good. That means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life." ~ Winston Churchill

From: MegatokyoEd | #250
I don't plan on banking again for the entire tournament. I'd rather have a substantial lead banked at that point and count on myself going on another streak than thinking the people trying to catch up to me will somehow go perfect the rest of the contest.

But I might change my mind. I planned on banking at Golden Sun/SA and then changed my mind and went for it. And hey that paid off.

Think about it like this.

If you bank at KH/KH2, I'd be 40k behind you.

It will take me just 5 matches to cut that in half, and probably about 10 to pass you up. And that's me, behind you by 40k.

There will be at least 10 other people that are closer to you than 40k that don't back at KH/KH2 as well dude. Do what you like, but I'm warning you. Banking there is conceding.
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"I would totally audition to be Extha's best friend" - Mer
See You Space Cowboy

Diablo is doing great right now. Good to see.

I consider MGS3 > MGS4 a solid lock now.
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Calling Pokemon RBY a top 10 game was the most insane contest jibba-jabba ever
Woe unto he who sig bets with the near-invincible Lord High creativename

And yeah, banking right now is just admitting defeat.
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Calling Pokemon RBY a top 10 game was the most insane contest jibba-jabba ever
Woe unto he who sig bets with the near-invincible Lord High creativename

Is KH/KH2 really that close of a match? I thought that it was probably the easiest in series match to pick. I haven't really paid attention to their matches but did something happen that made the outcome more unclear?
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B8 resident lurker for 5 errrr 6 years
Currently Playing: WoW, Poker

LOL, what? The MGS3 and MGS4 matches just confirmed MGS4 is a lock to me.
I mean, Diablo II's performance make it look very much alike MGS3 now.

Or if you prefer...
http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=53
http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=89
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"You have enemies? Good. That means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life." ~ Winston Churchill

I dunno, MGS4 might be able to build this to a solid 58% once it really starts cooking. I'll consider that a good performance since I'd take Diablo to beat MvC2 rather easily. Heck, I'd take Diablo to beat Uncharted 2 rather easily, and that beat SFIV no sweat.
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg
Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world!

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3468
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3489

Diablo II isn't something to be messed with.

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DFF

From: hockeydude15 | #257
Is KH/KH2 really that close of a match? I thought that it was probably the easiest in series match to pick. I haven't really paid attention to their matches but did something happen that made the outcome more unclear?

Both of them looked about the same in the last game contest.
But generally the average fan prefers KH II over KH I.
However KH I has been looking better in its matches.
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http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=207

That said, Diablo has just rocked three straight updates and is over 44%. BUUUUUUUURN
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Yoblazer: http://i32.tinypic.com/zlf1w7.gif
Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world!

I don't consider KH-KH2 hard to pick personally.
KH all the way. Especially after the Halo > Halo 3.
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"You have enemies? Good. That means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life." ~ Winston Churchill

I'm going to attempt to work this out for my case in particular, just as an example. Hopefully my math is right, but I don't guarantee it, I'm way too tried for this, so I may have made a few errors.

I've currently have 82,000 At Risk (40 Match Streak)

There's 13 matches on which points can be gained until KH/KH2, so I would have a 53 Match Streak by then, or 143,100 At Risk.

If I banked there, here's what would happen. There are 24 matches remaining on which people could get points (including KH/KH2) and 23 on which I could for a new streak.

But the important part is the streak they would have immediately after KH/KH2

For me to maintain the lead against someone with my own current streak of 40, they'd have a streak of 54 after KH/KH2. So, they'd be gaining 5400 points on me for every one of the 24 remaining matches.

Therefore, I'd need a lead of 5400 * 24 = 129,600 to end up tied with them at the end of the contest.

Using the Battle Stats to jump to the next At Risk Amount listed (74100 = 38 Match Streak), the lead needed would be 5200 * 24 = 124,800 needed to end in a tie. However, it should be kept in mind that since this is a shorter streak than mine, I'm gaining 200 on them for the 13 matches until KH2, but that just means I need 200 * 13 = 2600 less points than that last number. So, I'd need a lead of 122,200 right now to get a tie at the end.

Current Match Streak | Lead needed currently to tie at the end of the contest
40 | 129,600
38 | 122,200
34 | 107,400
32 | 100,000
31 | 96,300
28 | 85,200
27 | 81,500
24 | 70,400
23 | 66,700
22 | 63,000
20 | 55,600
19 | 51,900

I could keep constructing that, but it'd take a while, and that's probably way more than enough to make the point.

Also keep in mind, that's using my streak to come up with that, which is a best case scenario since a 40 Match Streak is the highest in the Battle Challenge. A lower current streak makes those numbers worse.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (99/116) MGS4 v Diablo II

From: MegatokyoEd | #1202
I'm #18 and not planning on banking until KH/KH2. I feel confident enough in anything up to that match but I'd feel like hell getting a 130k streak and losing it all by risky picking.

My advice, take Kingdom Hearts and don't look back. Unless you don't care about finishing top 10 and just want to finish on the leaderboard.

KH2 could win - and I don't believe this is comparable to Halo/Halo 3. Halo was clearly plain stronger in the past and just a far more respected and legendary game, clearly preferred by the franchise's fanbase. None of that is the case with KH and KH2. Halo vs. Halo 3 was never legitimately debatable, the Kingdom Hearts civil war is debatable. But, KH1 is still the clear choice there IMO, and if you happen to blow everything on a smart pick like that, you shouldn't regret it. You just got unlucky.
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www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery

Score-Brackets-% Right
108----1------------0.00
107----2------------50.00
106----31----------22.58
105----29----------44.83
104----55----------18.18
103----54----------40.74
102----101--------43.56
101----121--------38.84
100----157--------34.39
99------224--------29.91
98------262--------26.72
97------388--------22.16
96------362--------22.65
95------436--------21.56
94------490--------18.16
93------504--------20.44
92------562--------19.57
91------629--------15.90
90------657--------14.00
89------690--------15.07
88------662--------16.47
87------684--------15.20
86------771--------14.92
85------741--------13.77
84------746--------14.21
83------774--------12.92
82------812--------10.47
81------829--------10.37
80------890--------11.01
79------909--------11.22
78------866--------9.35
77------941--------10.52
76------901--------8.44
75------918--------8.61
74------958--------10.65
73------871--------9.41
72------951--------10.30
71------932--------8.48
70------905--------9.39
69------889--------11.02
68------906--------11.26
67------803--------11.71
66------747--------12.18
65------705--------12.62
64------676--------13.02
63------577--------13.17
62------504--------14.48
61------498--------13.65
60------433--------15.70
59------406--------14.78
58------298--------15.44
57------259--------20.85
56------261--------21.46
55------216--------18.52
54------174--------13.79
53------155--------21.94
52------123--------18.70
51------116--------25.86
50------102--------24.51
49------74----------28.38
48------54----------25.93
47------62----------14.52
46------51----------25.49
45------32----------21.88
44------36----------11.11
43------23----------26.09
42------20----------30.00
41------20----------25.00
40------14----------7.14
39------12----------25.00
38------8------------25.00
37------7------------14.29
36------11----------9.09
35------8------------25.00
34------12----------0.00
33------7------------14.29
32------8------------0.00
31------4------------0.00
30------5------------20.00
29------3------------0.00
28------7------------0.00
27------5------------0.00
26------3------------33.33
...
21------6------------16.67
...
17------5------------20.00
...
12------7------------14.29

Max Score: 114
Omitted scores all got the match wrong.

13.73% overall prediction percentage. Ouch. The Gurus looked a lot better at 54.90%. The match puts an end to the -6 brackets and takes out one of the remaining two -7 brackets. The -8s and -10s do unusually badly due to Luster getting the match wrong. The tiers around them actually manage to hit the high 30s and low 40s which is more than I expected even from the higher tiers. By the time you reach the -22s, the prediction percentage falls below 20 and never recovers.

11 people fell off the Top 50. EdmundExley, warriorsallofit, Iamdead7, OceloTRaveN, Demonsniperxd, KennyPT1, ZenzokukenX, Pizzaknight, Consolesonlyalt, fpce666 and Ambertwo did not have Paper Mario winning the match.

26 people got the match wrong and lived. Former first place maisface86, former second place PSU_Jer, MerchantTorneko, Randomcrazydude, Eternal_Debate, Air_Pollution, CaptainLeapYear, Land_Pollution, 6-Hour_Power, Anti_LUEshi, Shinigami_Duo, Zero_Bracket, Mouth-Wash, Lame-Username, Black-LUEsday, TurkeyDayFeast, Captain-Bumper, Negative-Slope, RIP_Computer, Heart-Luster, ROFLatl33t5p34k, Emoticon-Gun, -LUEFO-, Wishing-Star, PKProStudio and SomeGamerDude also did not have Paper Mario winning the match.

Haha, so many typos in that, I really was too tired for that.

However, I think I just math'd myself into not banking at KH/KH2, that table, even if I'm slightly off in the math, is just way too much to ignore.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (99/116) MGS4 v Diablo II

Oh yeah, a kind of obvious note, that table only holds up assuming someone goes perfect the entire contest (it also assumes that you would go perfect from KH/KH2 on, for whatever it is worth.) Obviously if everyone somehow got things wrong, you'd be safe. But it also doesn't cover a case in which they pass you and bank themselves, something you may or may not be able to overcome, depending on the situation.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (99/116) MGS4 v Diablo II

I'm on, I'm off, I'm on again, I'm off again.........

I'm still in the Top 100 at least. That's pretty cool.

Damn that block of Luster accounts still on the leader board. I'm on 106 too and they're blocking my appearance.

Luster, if you read this, when do you think the next time they'll lose points is?

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Tofa7 - LoZ-LoD | Hardcore
"Thank you, thank you, no applause necessary, just send money..."

I knew I should have taken Majora's Mask to lose to FFX.
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GameFAQs isn't going to be merged in with GameSpot or any other site. We're not going to strip out the soul of the site. -CJayC

Forget what I said about MGS4 using the night vote to churn out a good performance. Looks like the Metal Gears are still mired in meh. No clear favorite.
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Yoblazer: http://8board.webs.com/ariel.jpg
Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world!

Luster, if you read this, when do you think the next time they'll lose points is?

Probably in round 3 for picking Uncharted 2 > Halo. I also picked Oblivion > Paper Mario: TTYD, and that's a match that is getting some talk about a possible upset. Also in round 3, I picked Final Fantasy XII > Mass Effect so I would get no points there since Final Fantasy XII got eliminated by Portal this round.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!

oh hey Diablo 2 managed a cut. nice
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

Excellent work, Diablo. Keep hope of MGS3 > MGS4 alive.
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It takes a genius to make something simple truly great.
Dr. Football, you are the man! I'll take you down next contest though...

I didn't know a thing about Diablo's trends. Was it expected to take the night vote here? Sure doesn't look like it's losing it...
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg
Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world!

They're both technically night games. Probably wouldn't be much of a chance in trends
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

change*
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

Hell yes i'm 4th on the bracket leaderboard now, and the second guy with Melee winning.

Of course i had to screw myself with a dumbass upset like KOTOR>FFIX next round though. Hopefully having Halo>Uncharted 2 makes up for it, as i think gitanil and tranman don't have that.
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"I just want to see more young black holes" ~ A (lady) from NASA, November 15, 2010

This is going to sound somewhat weird, but I picked Morrowind and Persona 3 to win their first round matches without a second thought, and I also picked Halo > Uncharted 2 in the same fashion.

Why was the last one debated again? Halo is a proven solid midcarder while Uncharted 2 couldn't beat Modern Warfare 2. Lol.
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Currently Playing - Zelda: Majora's Mask
Next Games Up - Super Smash Bros. Melee, Resident Evil 4, Okami

Where the hell do you get that silly idea that U2 can't beat CoD:MW2?
It couldn't even comfortably beat Dissidia.
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"You have enemies? Good. That means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life." ~ Winston Churchill

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3727
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

Yesterday's chart:

Time | P. Mario | WoW | Votes
0:05 | 60.64% | 39.36% | 691
1:00 | 57.24% | 42.76% | 6972
2:00 | 57.60% | 42.40% | 5566
3:00 | 59.09% | 40.91% | 5476
4:00 | 60.93% | 39.07% | 5606
5:00 | 59.91% | 40.09% | 5420
6:00 | 60.45% | 39.55% | 5196
7:00 | 59.16% | 40.84% | 4606
8:00 | 60.13% | 39.87% | 3792
9:00 | 57.69% | 42.31% | 3614
10:00 | 60.17% | 39.83% | 3264
11:00 | 59.10% | 40.90% | 3100
12:00 | 58.96% | 41.04% | 2617

Not much shifting, but Paper Mario does noticeably better once we hit the ASV in full swing.

Second Quarter

Paper Mario – 50.00%
World of Warcraft – 40.85%
Animal Crossing – 33.86%
Katamari Damacy – 27.86%
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"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"

Animal Crossing > Katamari? Booooooo.

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http://img.imgcake.com/BroAndCharSigjpgna.jpg
http://img.imgcake.com/charbullyingjpgeg.jpg

Uncharted 2 lost to Modern Warfare 2 in the GOTY polls, right? I got the vibe that it was a Galaxy-esque game on this site (in terms of amassing loads of critical acclaim and GOTY awards and GameFAQs just passing on by). Uncharted 2 probably does beat Modern Warfare 2 now...wait a minute what am I saying???

To change the topic, here's something else:

Oblivion (2009g) has a strength of 30.15 against Base Link.
Gears of War (2009g) has a strength of 19.92 against Base Link.


Oblivion 66.97% 86,481
Gears of War 33.03% 42,662
TOTAL VOTES 129,144

Oblivion wins with 66.97% of the vote!
A 43,819 vote margin of victory.

Now gee, why the hell is TTYD/Oblivion being debated when TTYD clearly failed to reach Oblivion's number?
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Currently Playing - Zelda: Majora's Mask
Next Games Up - Super Smash Bros. Melee, Resident Evil 4, Okami

From: The n00b Avenger | #282
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3727

-_-....
Come on. I voted DA:O in that poll and I'd vote U2 without a second thought. You should know better than using polls like those. Especially when so many GOTY polls were made irrelevant in this contest.
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"You have enemies? Good. That means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life." ~ Winston Churchill

Oh yeah may I see the x-stats for the other fourpacks?
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Currently Playing - Zelda: Majora's Mask
Next Games Up - Super Smash Bros. Melee, Resident Evil 4, Okami

I'm really worried about MGS2 vs SotC, unless The Sims really is that weak. Should I be?

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Sign up for the fastest 500 topic here!
bit.ly/fastest500

My round 2 is abysmal. I picked SotC in my bracket, which means MGS2 is a lock to win.
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A pro isn't someone who sacrifices himself for his job. That's just a fool. - Reno, FFVII
http://i25.tinypic.com/2cp5chf.jpg

This is near useless, but taking the first round matches of the games that have yet to have their second round matches yet (plus MGS4 and Diablo II), I'll post which games some of the newcomers are closest to according to last contest's x-stats, and then we'll analyze whether or not that's believable.

Assassin's Creed - Metroid Prime
Eternal Darkness - Donkey Kong Country 2
Banjo-Tooie - Mass Effect
The Sims - LittleBigPlanet
Wii Sports - Streets of Rage 2
Dragon Quest VIII - Team Fortress 2
Mario Kart Wii - Paper Mario
Advance Wars - Paper Mario
God of War II - Left 4 Dead
Paper Mario: TYD - BioShock
Soulcalibur II - Super Metroid
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Currently Playing - Zelda: Majora's Mask
Next Games Up - Super Smash Bros. Melee, Resident Evil 4, Okami

Oh right, and KD gets 34.10% on WoW and 41.14% on Animal Crossing.
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http://img267.imageshack.us/img267/2369/mythbattlers.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v516/Sensui22/1248835958206.png

Also I did not mean to place Fallout 3 below Prime in my thingy. Whoops.
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Currently Playing - Zelda: Majora's Mask
Next Games Up - Super Smash Bros. Melee, Resident Evil 4, Okami

From: LinkMarioSamus | Posted: 12/4/2010 8:32:27 PM | #290

Assassin's Creed - Metroid Prime
Eternal Darkness - Donkey Kong Country 2
Banjo-Tooie - Mass Effect
The Sims - LittleBigPlanet
Wii Sports - Streets of Rage 2
Dragon Quest VIII - Team Fortress 2
Mario Kart Wii - Paper Mario
Advance Wars - Paper Mario
God of War II - Left 4 Dead
Paper Mario: TYD - BioShock
Soulcalibur II - Super Metroid

Most of the games on the right would have easy wins over the games on the left. I'd only be afraid of Paper Mario TTYD v Bioshock and Wii Sports v Streets of Rage.



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Tofa7 - LoZ-LoD | Hardcore
"Thank you, thank you, no applause necessary, just send money..."

From: -Tofa7- | #293
Most of the games on the right would have easy wins over the games on the left. I'd only be afraid of Paper Mario TTYD v Bioshock and Wii Sports v Streets of Rage.

God of War II would stomp Left 4 Dead just like God of War did. Other than that i pretty much agree with what you said, though i don't think SoR or Bioshock would have trouble with either of their matches.
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"The power of accurate observation is commonly called Dr. Football Factor by those who have not got it."

I'd pick BioShock over TTYD without a second thought, honestly. And who cares about Wii Sports vs. SoR2?

Other Games:

inFamous - Pong
Rock Band 2 - Team Fortress 2
Fable - Oregon Trail
Batman Arkham Asylum - Battletoads

Lots of fodder there, yikes. I'll get around to some other ones later.
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Currently Playing - Zelda: Majora's Mask
Next Games Up - Super Smash Bros. Melee, Resident Evil 4, Okami

Now throwing veteran games into the mix. In such a case I'll hold each veteran equal to its 2009 value and see where that leads.

Fallout 3 - Castlevania: SOTN (uh oh)
Deus Ex - Xenogears
Sonic Adventure 2 - Mortal Kombat II
Uncharted 2 - Mass Effect

I'll do the Halo fourpack later.
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Currently Playing - Zelda: Majora's Mask
Next Games Up - Super Smash Bros. Melee, Resident Evil 4, Okami

MGS2 is still a lock over SotC, The Sims really is that weak.

Things are looking great for MGS3 though.
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Dr Football and Snake have won this round, but Sephiroth will rise again!

From: Lieutenant Kettch | #297
MGS2 is still a lock over SotC, The Sims really is that weak.

Things are looking great for MGS3 though.

For all we know, Diablo is that damn strong. Nothing from last year is translating very well to this year anyways.
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You may take Mr. Rogers down, but I will be back and become more powerful than you ever imagine
"tgs is taking it alone"

From: tgs2 | #298
For all we know, Diablo is that damn strong. Nothing from last year is translating very well to this year anyways.

I think it's much more likely that MGS4 has dropped a bit as it's gotten a couple years older, and isn't the shiniest thing around anymore. You can say 4-ways all you want, but Diablo barely beating out Halo and getting rocked by Kingdom Hearts with FFX in the match wasn't very impressive.

And even more importantly, while Diablo has looked like a night vote beast (against the likes of Halo and SSBM), it's absolutely destroying MGS4 here. It's looking like the night match will almost certainly favor MGS3.
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Dr Football and Snake have won this round, but Sephiroth will rise again!

The Halo fourpack (aka if you hold Halo and Halo 3 equal to their 2009 selves in the x-stats here are the games which the games from that fourpack are closest too according to said stats):

Super Mario Sunshine - Super Metroid
Ninja Gaiden - Paper Mario
Halo 3 - Super Metroid
Halo: Combat Evolved - Final Fantasy IV
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Currently Playing - Zelda: Majora's Mask
Next Games Up - Super Smash Bros. Melee, Resident Evil 4, Okami