GameFAQs Contests

If Paper Mario holds on, the prediction percentage might be under 20%.



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Solid Snake, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.
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"Ulti doesn't get drunk because alcoholism is a character flaw, of which Ulti has zero." -fetusbuckteer

Paper Mario's last boss is one of the best ever in terms of atmosphere.
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Support Squirtle (Pokemon R/B/Y) for Character Battle IX!
http://img832.imageshack.us/img832/8463/banner2squirtle.jpg

Hochi hath spoken, Zelda is doomed. Poor Link.....he couldn't even triple Sonic or double Mario as he so richly deserves. Why do you hate your Hero of Time so, Gamefaqs?

Paper Mario's final boss fight is very atmospherically awesome, yes. Incidentally, the next Mario game I played after Paper Mario was Sunshine.....and that had probably the worst final boss fight ever. Quite the contrast.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.

Well, I completely apologize for the whole Fallout 3/Wind Waker trainwreck, that was completely on me.

Shows how terrible my perceptions and recollections are!
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (97/114) Paper Mario v WoW

From: red sox 777 | #003
as he so richly deserves.

I was just talking about this with KoolAid last night, but...

If Link had the personality from the cartoon for all the Zelda games, I wonder how popular he would be.

I'd probably agree with this sentiment if he did!
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"

Fallout 3's actually better than last year. that game is growing with time and is probably one of the four biggest games of the gen behind TP and Brawl and MGS4. the only other game offhand that could beat it is Portal.

that said, Wind Waker could beat MGS4.
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xyzzy

that said, Wind Waker could beat MGS4.

Yeah, that's just a jump I couldn't make in my mind because I agree now I was severely underestimating WW. I have no idea why I thought it was as weak as I was saying, but looking back on it, that was just embarrassing of me.

It's practically the entire reason I've usually lurked the board and stats topic since 2003, I'm too prone to doing utterly stupid things like that.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (97/114) Paper Mario v WoW

no big deal. I picked Mass Effect over Portal. everyone does silly things sometimes.
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xyzzy

Don't be afraid to post because you might say something stupid! This topic wouldn't have many posts if we thought that way!
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"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"

I've never said a silly thing nor made a silly pick

Yeah, everyone makes bad picks. I still think Oblivion > WW was a solid upset pick before the contest, although it looks hopeless after round 1.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.

Well, everyone except hochi, of course.
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"Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?"
"I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!"

Cloud > Link, Hochi. I know you gained points from it once, but you lost from it twice. But you are the contest master, yes.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.

I always thought people were underestimating Wind Waker due to SSBM and not having seen it in action in six years. Oblivion never had a chance there. you need a real name in order to beat a big Zelda game and Oblivion ain't it.
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xyzzy

The reason I can see people doubting Wind Waker was the 55% on Prime. I mean, I know Prime was pretty strong back then (Probably stronger than it is now), but that didn't really look good for a lot of people.
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http://img267.imageshack.us/img267/2369/mythbattlers.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v516/Sensui22/1248835958206.png

From: LeonhartFour | #009
Don't be afraid to post because you might say something stupid! This topic wouldn't have many posts if we thought that way!

Fair enough. It's just pretty embarrassing to be that wrong based on what largely is a product of lack of research! It's how I got it wrong!
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (97/114) Paper Mario v WoW

From: red sox 777 | #051
Yeah, everyone makes bad picks. I still think Oblivion > WW was a solid upset pick before the contest, although it looks hopeless after round 1.

Same here - I favored WW but thought Oblivion was a good upset pick. But I didn't realize pre-contest that WW was in a match with Smash. After I realized that I didn't give Oblivion much chance.

WW should break 55% on Oblivion (assuming it gets past PM2).
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**** happens, no worries.

The reason I can see people doubting Wind Waker was the 55% on Prime. I mean, I know Prime was pretty strong back then (Probably stronger than it is now), but that didn't really look good for a lot of people.

I think people were expecting a SFF beat-down like what the other Zelda games did, but that never happened.
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Calling Pokemon RBY a top 10 game was the most insane contest jibba-jabba ever
Woe unto he who sig bets with the near-invincible Lord High creativename

Man, I still remember having Kingdom Hearts > Metroid Prime in the upper half of my Division 128.

5 years later, my pick was validated!
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"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"

I'm still beating myself up over the fact that, evidently, at some point I believed that Paper Mario would beat MGS3 >.>
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PSN - Aevio
Playing: Might & Magic: Clash of Heroes

Hochi, help! What are SotC's chances of beating MGS2?

Last night's chart:

Time | MGS3 | MvC2 | Votes
0:05 | 62.44% | 37.56% | 900
1:00 | 61.58% | 38.42% | 6694
2:00 | 61.28% | 38.72% | 4251
3:00 | 62.70% | 37.30% | 3137
4:00 | 64.65% | 35.35% | 2286
5:00 | 67.37% | 32.63% | 1952
6:00 | 66.26% | 33.74% | 1799
7:00 | 66.70% | 33.30% | 2177
8:00 | 67.11% | 32.89% | 2575
9:00 | 64.35% | 35.65% | 2909
10:00 | 64.04% | 35.96% | 3115
11:00 | 64.12% | 35.88% | 3124
12:00 | 63.55% | 36.45% | 2875

Man, it's so weird to see an MGS game display day trends. The fighting game night vote is something else.

West Division

First Quarter

Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater - 50.00%
Marvel vs. Capcom 2 - 36.15%
New Super Mario Bros. Wii - 35.02%
TimeSplitters 2 - 23.15%

TimeSplitters gets 33.05% on NSMBWii and 32.02% on MvC2.
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"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"

Yeah, everyone makes bad picks. I still think Oblivion > WW was a solid upset pick before the contest, although it looks hopeless after round 1.

Yeah, those matches are the ones that make you say "**** If I only knew!"...

Kind of like me thinking Fallout 3, Batman Arkham Asylum and Uncharted 2 all had the same strength, or that Twilight Princess wasn't even going to be able to break 60% on Dragon Age because of its huge anti-vote factor.

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"I remember a time when someone called World of Warcraft 'World of WoW'"

So can we stop giving Metroid Prime so much grief for that 2009 match yet?

From: AxemPink | #024
So can we stop giving Metroid Prime so much grief for that 2009 match yet?

NEVER

Okay, maybe a little.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

From: TheOneAboveAll | #101
Hochi, help! What are SotC's chances of beating MGS2?

SOTC is a hipster game.

Hipster games can only win in California.

Cali will not save SOTC.
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I guess WoW's chance of winning this four-pack...

(puts on sunglasses)

...only sounded good on paper.

YEAAAAAAH

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CURRENT GOTY SCORE: 103
LOL WARCRAFT

Looks like I was easily wrong about today. Good thing I banked for DR/P4, because I wouldn't have for today.


PM:TTYD-hype against Oblivion feels so wrong, but I dunno, maybe. Every game from SC2's vote-in except SC2 has looked bad, and it didn't win the vote-in so I don't know how easily it can be the exception. PM's beating WoW considerably worse than Oblivion did, but it's looking likely this isn't the same WoW we saw in BGE2 and we don't really know how the Paper Mario games compare yet. PM:TTYD may be a JRPG to Oblivion's WRPG, but I don't think that matters much. It's Nintendo in a day-match, but Oblivion's a 360-hit so it should fend okay for itself.

For what it's worth, Nintendo RPGs are currently 11-3 in this contest (7-2 if you take out Pokemon) and SMRPG got 46.87% on Goldeneye last contest. Not bad numbers to have if PM:TTYD wants to pull this off...but then again, PM looked back in BGE2 to MP, so it's hard to find a solid strand of information to get behind here.
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Love Epona.

Paper Mario seems to be getting the ASV already and it kicked in before 2:30 PM as well.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!

Paper Mario's been on fire so far, but I'm still feeling pretty good about Oblivion. I think SCII is stronger than the vote-ins suggest - in general, the vote-ins have seemed quite unreliable this contest - and Morrowind managed to impress in both of its matches.

I almost want TTYD to win, though, just to see the prediction percentage. It could very well be below 10%, honestly.

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CURRENT GOTY SCORE: 103
LOL WARCRAFT

Could all the recent Cataclysm ads actually have worked against WoW here? I can imagine all the anti-WoW folks seeing the ads and thinking "Another xpac?? OMG, just DIE already!"
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For the swarm...

More like, the Wow voters are all furiously playing the expansion right now.
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Nyoro~n

The rest of round 2's pictures are up.
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·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·
Every man lives. Not every man truly dies.

dat day vote

make your time, oblivion
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xyzzy

Awesome show, Paper Mario! I look forward to seeing how high it can go on MGS3.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.

oh dear, do i bank or not on that match, i should be on a fairly good streak by then.
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Nyuu~

Paper Mario had a fantastic day vote last time around, and WoW's day vote sucks! Oblivion's was a lot better!
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."

sotc is boned
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xyzzy

Dang, no Raiden in MGS2's pic. Upset averted.
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See You Space Cowboy...

http://image.com.com/gamefaqs/images/gotd/gotd-91.jpg
http://image.com.com/gamefaqs/images/gotd/gotd-92.jpg
http://image.com.com/gamefaqs/images/gotd/gotd-93.jpg
http://image.com.com/gamefaqs/images/gotd/gotd-94.jpg
http://image.com.com/gamefaqs/images/gotd/gotd-95.jpg
http://image.com.com/gamefaqs/images/gotd/gotd-96.jpg
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2010 Game of the Decade Contest - 95/112 points - Today: Metal Gear Solid 3 / Paper Mario
http://backloggery.com/articuno2001/sig.gif

oblivion too, yikes
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xyzzy

Question:

Is MGS4 just a little bit weaker than Melee/Brawl, or has it really dropped its strength?

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"I remember a time when someone called World of Warcraft 'World of WoW'"

MGS4 got 47.5% on FFX, so I'd put it around 45% on Melee/Brawl.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.

Also TTYD, Assassin's Creed II, Pokemon, and Majora have really good pics. Props to whoever made those.
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See You Space Cowboy...

Man, what the heck is that SOTC pic?

From: Advokaiser | #042
Question:

Is MGS4 just a little bit weaker than Melee/Brawl, or has it really dropped its strength?

MGS4 was a decent bit weaker than Melee/Brawl last Games Contest. Don't take that GOTY poll at face value!
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Support Otacon (Metal Gear Solid) for Character Battle IX!
http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/1950/banner4otacon.jpg

I just had to check this as soon as I got home and all I can say is


ahahahahahahaha

here comes a 10% prediction rate

http://image.com.com/gamefaqs/images/gotd/gotd-96.jpg

...I take back what I said, Oblivion is screwed. >_>

Okay, not really, but DANG THAT PIC ADVANTAGE IS HUGE! Whoever made that TTYD picture did an amazing job. Mario Kart Wii, Pokemon G/S/C, MGS2 and Wind Waker look great as well.

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CURRENT GOTY SCORE: 103
LOL WARCRAFT

From: LeonhartFour | #045
Man, what the heck is that SOTC pic?

That's Allen being a smart-pants and not using my picture because I hate the game >_>

http://img337.imageshack.us/img337/4188/sotcu.png

Seriously, pretend you have no clue who made any of these pictures. Which one would you choose?
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´
http://img.imgcake.com/mjpop.gif

http://image.com.com/gamefaqs/images/gotd/gotd-95.jpg

Used my AC2 pic! Good stuff.
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The whole object of travel is not to set foot on foreign land; it is at last to set foot on one's own country as a foreign land.

Did I do something wrong with the Oblivion picture?
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·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·
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