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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 962

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charmander6000 | Posted 12/2/2010 9:30:20 PM | message detail
I wonder if SBAllen will change the pic before Paper Mario's match.
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GotD Bracket: 100/112 Today's Matches: MGS3 & WoW
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kinsho3 | Posted 12/2/2010 9:36:25 PM | message detail
Not a pretty result for MGS3, and this is coming from someone that has it over MGS4.

Even with this pic advantage, I really doubt I'd take MvC2 over AC. Then again, action games haven't done so well this contest. Gears of War 1 & 2 were annihilated, God of War 2 stunk it up, Uncharted 2 isn't faring that well, and AC2 largely disappointed against Ico.

So....dammit, I don't know
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Haste_2 | Posted 12/2/2010 9:36:29 PM | message detail
Poor Timesplitters 2. :[ What I think today is telling is that MGS3 probably was never really that close to RE4, despite getting similar scores back in BGE 2009. I'll be bold and predict that MvC2 doesn't let MGS3 gain very much percentage in the night, if any.

Spread Betting has messed with me so badly lately....heh. I'm liking this result, though. I would have loved to see MvC2 back in, say, 2002, in a game contest.

Okay, let's say MGS3 ends with 62%.... what would that suggest for MGS2 against SotC?

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transience | Posted 12/2/2010 9:41:56 PM | message detail
the best argument for SOTC has been MGS's inability to put up a good performance.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 12/2/2010 9:43:49 PM | message detail
This match makes me all kinds of worried for MGS2.

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vcharon | Posted 12/2/2010 9:44:09 PM | message detail
I always wonder why MGS3 is held in such high regard in the series; it's the only one of the four main games without the real Snake in it. You'd think by default that would make it the weakest.
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creativename | Posted 12/2/2010 9:44:13 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #755
creativename

http://img13.imageshack.us/img13/5696/uncharted22.png

Allen originally accepted that picture for Uncharted 2 in round 1, but then he changed it. Can you put this on the picture section of your site?


Added.

From: charmander6000 | #1109
Yoshi and Fox probably overlap more than Squall/Sora.

Yet Yoshi performed better in the second round against Squall.


Because Sora is stronger than Fox.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/2/2010 9:44:40 PM | message detail

From: Haste_2 | #303
what would that suggest for MGS2 against SotC?


49%
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transience | Posted 12/2/2010 9:45:08 PM | message detail
though really, it's not that bad.

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3490&num=4

World of Warcraft got 42% on it last year.
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Haste_2 | Posted 12/2/2010 9:45:47 PM | message detail
It took 45 minutes for MGS3 to finally gain percentage.

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KamikazePotato | Posted 12/2/2010 9:46:25 PM | message detail

From: transience | #309
though really, it's not that bad.

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3490&num=4

World of Warcraft got 42% on it last year.


It's bad when you've got people hyping it to beat a game that once beat Brawl in a poll.

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swordz9 | Posted 12/2/2010 9:46:30 PM | message detail
I took SotC to beat MGS2 thinking it'd be a pretty big upset, but now it's sounding like it's not so big after all.
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transience | Posted 12/2/2010 9:49:39 PM | message detail
well, that's their problem, not mine!
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YoboD | Posted 12/2/2010 9:49:50 PM | message detail
This is not a good contest for MGS. Wonder how good Diablo will do when MGS4 inevitably disappoints.
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Haste_2 | Posted 12/2/2010 9:51:16 PM | message detail
It would still be a huge major upset as far as pre-contest expectations go. Likewise with Golden Sun > GTA:SA. However, GS > GTA:SA had much discussion after their Round 1 matches and most acknowledged it had a great shot. That's my favorite kind of upset, though. My favorites are the ones that occur without warning.

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TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/2/2010 9:51:47 PM | message detail
Screw this, I'm sticking with SotC. Though now I am decently worried that my streak will be killed by Diablo before I even get there. I might have pulled the Diablo trigger over MGS3, but I can't in good faith do it over 4.
transience | Posted 12/2/2010 9:52:51 PM | message detail
wow, serious overreaction. what were people expecting?

64%? all this over 2.5%?
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creativename | Posted 12/2/2010 9:53:36 PM | message detail
Final Fantasy and MGS have both looked bad this contest. Sony console stuff losing strength or something? Or maybe their opponents are stronger than we thought. That excuse seems a slight stretch though since the disappointing has been widespread from both franchises.

From: Haste_2 | #1503
I'll be bold and predict that MvC2 doesn't let MGS3 gain very much percentage in the night, if any.


Nah, MGS3 will definitely gain at night. But as said earlier, it will look stronger than it should by the end since MvC2 is pretty clearly a day game.

I would have loved to see MvC2 back in, say, 2002, in a game contest.

Oh man, MvC2 would've been beastly back then!

From: KamikazePotato | #1551
It's bad when you've got people hyping it to beat a game that once beat Brawl in a poll.


Huh?

From: swordz9 | #1552
I took SotC to beat MGS2 thinking it'd be a pretty big upset, but now it's sounding like it's not so big after all.


It would be a very big upset.
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AppreciateTrees | Posted 12/2/2010 9:54:04 PM | message detail
I might have pulled the Diablo trigger over MGS3, but I can't in good faith do it over 4.

MGS4 > MGS3? I hope not :p
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Haste_2 | Posted 12/2/2010 9:54:13 PM | message detail
Honestly, I was expecting like 67%. >_> That's what I predicted in the Oracle... though it is not my forte this yhear....

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/2/2010 9:55:39 PM | message detail
Things will be back to normal once Diablo II hits the mid-40s in its bad time frame. All this is right now is yet more fodder for the ever-growing "MGS is so, so dead against Pokemon/Zelda" theory.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 12/2/2010 9:55:51 PM | message detail
I figured MGS3 would get 66%. In a night match which was going to overrate it already vs. a game equal to NSMBWii, a doubling sounded very reasonable.

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transience | Posted 12/2/2010 9:57:21 PM | message detail
MGS will go up soon here. it's already begun actually.

I agree that this will be fine after Diablo gets done making MGS4 look bad. god knows that game would beat AC.
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creativename | Posted 12/2/2010 9:57:24 PM | message detail

From: transience | #1557
wow, serious overreaction. what were people expecting?

64%? all this over 2.5%?


I was about to say exactly this - typical stats topic overreaction going on. I think this is mostly MvC2 being good. Which isn't that surprising. Even if MGS3 is weaker than expected, it should still beat SOTC fairly easily.

I'd be pretty damn suprised if SOTC beats MGS2. I see it getting 46% on the high end. Doubt it breaks 45% though.
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swordz9 | Posted 12/2/2010 9:58:58 PM | message detail
What I meant was people are making it sound like MGS isn't as strong as it used to be. Seeing all this worry about it made me think my upset pick wasn't so big anymore. I guess it's just a big overreaction.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 12/2/2010 9:59:07 PM | message detail
Replace 'Marvel vs. Capcom 2' with 'New Super Mario Bros. Wii'. Doesn't look nearly as good.

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red sox 777 | Posted 12/2/2010 10:00:46 PM | message detail
Not really......NSMBW was the favorite over MvC2. I don't think it'd be disappointing for MGS3 to get 62% on that game.
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ZFS | Posted 12/2/2010 10:00:59 PM | message detail
Yeah, I don't see anything really bad about this performance, unless you thought MVC2 wasn't worth anything, which was never going to be the case. It has always had a good claim to being the strongest fighting game we've seen.

Also agree that Diablo II will do away with the idea that MGS4 is on some other level.

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LOLContests | Posted 12/2/2010 10:08:20 PM | message detail
I thought that MGS was 33 on Base FFVII and MvC2 was 22, so for me this is quite the disappointment! Were those not the consensus?
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creativename | Posted 12/2/2010 10:12:11 PM | message detail
Where are you getting any sort of stat for MvC2?

In the Oracle looks like people expected ~63%-66% I think, just from a quick glance.
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red sox 777 | Posted 12/2/2010 10:15:00 PM | message detail
33% on FFVII sounds high for MGS3. Going by MGS3 = RE4 = 45% on Brawl/Melee, that'd give MGS3....31.5% on FFVII by my own estimates. Well, those numbers are close, and based on estimates based on 4-way LFF matches that none of us are going to agree upon, so it's not meaningful either way. I mean, MvC2 could just as easily be at 22% on FFVII as 24%, and that'd give you the difference in this match.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
red sox 777 | Posted 12/2/2010 10:17:05 PM | message detail
MGS3 should rise a fair amount with the night vote though. It's only at 60% in North America, and currently at 76% in Europe though it's still very early there.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
TheCodeisBosco | Posted 12/2/2010 10:20:20 PM | message detail
What are you guys expecting from MGS4/Diablo, out of curiosity?

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ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/2/2010 10:23:33 PM | message detail
What the **** were you guys all flipping out about? We literally JUST SAW how legit MvC2 was. The hell.
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HaRRicH | Posted 12/2/2010 10:26:02 PM | message detail
I've not seen a single suggestion for MvsC2's pic being a factor here for looking good, so this is our cue to never mention SSBM's pic against FFX in 2004 again.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 12/2/2010 10:32:35 PM | message detail
I was expecting MGS3 to be at a doubling at worst. Lol. The MGS series probably just stinks this year; I think by now I'd take Metroid Prime over MGS2, and maybe even a slew of other games (e.g. Galaxy, Portal, BioShock). It's that bad, though to be fair MGS2 was the only MGS not to be embarassed in the first round plus it IS "the original" in this contest.

Next thing you know, MGS2 does as expected and SotC turns out to actually be weaker than Assassin's Creed, Marvel vs. Capcom 2, and New Super Mario Wii. Just watch.

Also...haven't 2009 games been stinking it up across the board? Yet this match makes NSMBWii look good, and then RE5 wasn't embarassed and seems to be worth 44% on God of War or something. Uh oh...
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 12/2/2010 10:36:36 PM | message detail
Also should I vote for MGS2 just to spite SotC's whiny fanbase? If they come and whine about SotC being art, something is wrong with them, considering how MGS2 is ALSO one of the premier examples of video games as an artistic medium.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/2/2010 10:37:45 PM | message detail
The MGS series probably just stinks this year

what's that?

is that a Sephiroth > Snake that I hear?!
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fluffyflyingpig | Posted 12/2/2010 10:38:32 PM | message detail
Diablo with the upset! >.>


...


blizzard please leak something major overnight. or better yet tomorrow.
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creativename | Posted 12/2/2010 10:39:52 PM | message detail

From: HaRRicH | #1655
I've not seen a single suggestion for MvsC2's pic being a factor here for looking good, so this is our cue to never mention SSBM's pic against FFX in 2004 again.


Uhh...these pics aren't really comparable. Don't know how you'd even try to compare them.

The MvC2 pic is a cluster****, not to mention the MvC2 characters are puny in terms of strength to Mario etc.

And Big Boss is a long way form Meg Ryan. MGS3 actually has a pretty good pic. It's actually a better pic than MvC2's other than the bright colors, which draw attention. The only MvC2 character you can even really see on a glance is Chun-Li.

A pic with just say Ryu, Ken, Wolverine, Cyclops, Cable being large and visible would be much better for MvC2. Not that it would really make much difference, but this is far from a great pic for that game (although I do like the pic - it just doesn't convey any advantages whatsoever).
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Pizzaknight | Posted 12/2/2010 10:45:02 PM | message detail
Don't be too hard on MGS3, guys, it's dealing with MAHVEL BABY! It's the game that managed to beat FRIGGIN' MARIO! I know it's newer Mario, but it's still FRIGGIN' MARIO! Neither game is fodder.
creativename | Posted 12/2/2010 10:50:57 PM | message detail
In fact, just Cable doing his Hyper Beam to someone like Ryu would've been very fitting...

So many badass pics could've been made for MvC2. It's the type of game where we should have ten pics rotating featuring different sets of characters, would be awesome.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 12/3/2010 12:35:21 AM | message detail
So if Paper Mario beats WoW by a similar margin

Upset train choo choo
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Pizzaknight | Posted 12/3/2010 12:42:53 AM | message detail
Did anybody take a stab at the how much stronger PM is than Animal Crossing question yet? That decides the match, really.
Lightning Strikes | Posted 12/3/2010 12:59:37 AM | message detail
TTYD vs. Oblivion is another big one. It seems like Oblivion's a favourite for that one, but honestly I'm quite confident PM will win. the only question is by how much. MGS3 was not that far ahead of Oblivion itself. I guess TTYD could be stronger than the original but I don't know...
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AppreciateTrees | Posted 12/3/2010 1:04:23 AM | message detail
I'm quite confident PM will win.

Why?
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 12/3/2010 1:07:24 AM | message detail
Well it seems fairly obvious. Gears of War 2 beat Soul Calibur 2 in the vote-in poll. And then PM beat the much stronger original GoW by almost as much as Oblivion beat Soul Calibur 2, in a night match no less. The next one is a day match, so I'm not really seeing much of a way TTYD can lose.
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ShatteredElysium | Posted 12/3/2010 1:56:39 AM | message detail
It's quite amusing being a European for these night matches. In a decent amount of matches I get to read reactions to the board vote/power hour before work and then get to laugh at just how much people have overreacted by my morning break.

Not faulting anyone for it, just saying it makes me smile at work.

Anyway, looks like MGS will end up on the lower-mid end of Oracle predictions here so not exactly the huge underperformance people were calling it earlier.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 12/3/2010 1:58:50 AM | message detail
Something that I've noticed is that the only games from the '04-'06 bracket last contest that haven't disappointed this time are Resident Evil 4, Twilight Princess, and Shadow of the Colossus
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paulg235 | Posted 12/3/2010 2:06:22 AM | message detail
MGS3 is doing fine right now against MvC2. I don't know why people are seriously calling this a disappointment.
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