GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 962
TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/2/2010 3:27:25 PM | message detail |
It's
very clear that there was FF/KH overlap there. That's why MGS2 did 4%
better on FFX than in the first round. I think any other argument there
would be ridiculous. |
transients | Posted 12/2/2010 3:27:40 PM | message detail |
I
wasn't saying it was going to be an upset. I'm saying that if MGS4
underperforms like it seemed to in round 1, there's cause for concern. --- xyzzy |
transients | Posted 12/2/2010 3:28:11 PM | message detail |
that's really not that much. --- xyzzy |
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/2/2010 3:28:13 PM | message detail |
From: transients | #199 Didn't MGS2 and Vice City each do a decent bit better in round 2 compared to round 1? Plus, Aerith/Sora in 2003, Squall/Sora 3 out of 4 times, Cloud/Sora... I'm trying to think of an instance where it didn't happen. Well, I guess that one time Squall managed to 60/40 Sora for some reason when he's only managed like 53% the other times in 4-ways. --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
eaglesarebeasts | Posted 12/2/2010 3:28:27 PM | message detail |
PM2 vs Oblivion scares you more than all those others?? Seems like a relatively simple win for Oblivion. |
charmander6000 | Posted 12/2/2010 3:29:06 PM | message detail |
FF/KH SFF/LFF is significant or else Sora would have defeated Squall back in 2008. --- BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls GotD Bracket: 96/108 Today's Matches: Portal & Mass Effect |
transients | Posted 12/2/2010 3:29:51 PM | message detail |
Squall/Sora/Sonic
seemed remarkably normal to me. maybe Squall should have won, I don't
know, but it certainly didn't fall off the map like you would have
expected. like, the next round Melee and OOT tangled and Melee got destroyed. FFX and KH seem to be related but it doesn't drag them way down. a little? yeah, but not like you'd expect. --- xyzzy |
TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/2/2010 3:31:11 PM | message detail |
So
now do we have any other stats outside those two matches that could
show us MGS2 > SotC? I'm really looking for a reason to take MGS2
here. I don't want to be the only person who thinks SotC will win. I
just can't find a reason that it won't. |
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/2/2010 3:31:39 PM | message detail |
From: transients | #207 That's the one time I said it seemed normal. Although that's the one that seems odd since that's the only time Squall beat Sora by any really significant margin. I find it hard to think that FFX and KH1 wouldn't overlap though since FFX and the KH games are like the only Square games of the last ten years people care about. --- http://i43.tinypic.com/dgwh0.gif http://www.majhost.com/gallery/atukam/OHWD/snownd.gif |
xp1337 | Posted 12/2/2010 3:32:26 PM | message detail |
From: eaglesarebeasts | #205 PM2 vs Oblivion scares you more than all those others?? Seems like a relatively simple win for Oblivion. I know it does, but I just can't help but feel it's a trap. NintendoFAQs, RPGFAQs, Day Match, Gears [and hence PM2 for beating it] possibly looking better retroactively thanks to Portal now.... It kind of helps that I don't think any of those others are that difficult either. The only reason I'd worry about Halo at this point is because of its history of choking at inconvenient times, because otherwise I'm confident it beats UC2. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (93/110) SoA v Mass Effect |
transients | Posted 12/2/2010 3:32:56 PM | message detail |
agreed. but didn't you expect Sora to lose to Yoshi in that one year with Cloud in the poll? Sora did great there too. --- xyzzy |
transients | Posted 12/2/2010 3:33:38 PM | message detail |
oh wait, that was Squall, not Cloud. --- xyzzy |
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/2/2010 3:33:56 PM | message detail |
From: transients | #211 You mean Squall/Yoshi/Sora/Fox? Yeah, but Yoshi looked like crap that year and had to deal with Fox anyway. And Sora still got wiped out by Cloud bad enough to still lose to Squall the next round. --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
Greyfeld | Posted 12/2/2010 3:33:59 PM | message detail |
Uh... because SotC isn't that strong, and MGS2 isn't as weak as you believe it is? Take any upset you want to, just don't cry about it when you lose all your battle points because MGS2 won, like everybody told you it would. --- PSN - Aevio Playing: Might & Magic: Clash of Heroes |
charmander6000 | Posted 12/2/2010 3:35:01 PM | message detail |
agreed. but didn't you expect Sora to lose to Yoshi in that one year with Cloud in the poll? Sora did great there too. You're getting your matches mixed up. People thought that Yoshi had a chance against Sora if Squall LFF'd him while Yoshi SFF'd Fox. Of course Yoshi choking in round 1 didn't help matters then Fox had to hold up pretty well. --- BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls GotD Bracket: 96/108 Today's Matches: Portal & Mass Effect |
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/2/2010 3:35:06 PM | message detail |
From: TheOneAboveAll | #208 Considering SOTC has had a grand total of two matches its entire career, you're going to have a hard time finding much else. --- "Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!" "Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!" |
charmander6000 | Posted 12/2/2010 3:36:30 PM | message detail |
And Sora still got wiped out by Cloud bad enough to still lose to Squall the next round. basically this if Sora couldn't get SFF less than Squall just a bit (which is all he needed) to win the match I don't see how you can say that the two don't have overlap without a straight face. --- BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls GotD Bracket: 96/108 Today's Matches: Portal & Mass Effect |
red sox 777 | Posted 12/2/2010 3:37:08 PM | message detail |
FFX and KH should overlap, though the 4% measured through MGS2 probably overrates the overlap a bit I think. --- Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest. |
transients | Posted 12/2/2010 3:37:26 PM | message detail |
still,
the whole idea is that FF and KH would drag each other down. it didn't
even come close to doing that unless Yoshi was REALLY bad, like fodder
line bad. --- xyzzy |
Haste_2 | Posted 12/2/2010 3:37:52 PM | message detail |
Well,
I guess that one time Squall managed to 60/40 Sora for some reason when
he's only managed like 53% the other times in 4-ways. Yeah, I'm still wondering how that happened. I think there are two ways to reason it out: either Sora got abandoned by his fanbase due to stronger competition all-around (not that the competition was THAT much bigger), or it had something to due with the fact that Squall/Sora/Fox/Yoshi doesn't have NEARLY the diversity as Squall/Sonic/Sora/Sub-Zero. But, yeah, that was a long time ago and it's meaningless. Sometimes it's fun to try to ponder stuff like that, though.... --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/2/2010 3:38:28 PM | message detail |
Wait xp, you thought Halo over UC2 was obvious? I was thinking the other way around. Oh, this will get interesting. And I know that SotC has no stats, that's why I'm looking for anything. Trying to find a way to compare The Sims to Banjo-Tooie or anything like that. |
charmander6000 | Posted 12/2/2010 3:38:50 PM | message detail |
Fox was in the match or are you going to say that Smash characters don't have overlap. --- BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls GotD Bracket: 96/108 Today's Matches: Portal & Mass Effect |
charmander6000 | Posted 12/2/2010 3:40:35 PM | message detail |
Wait xp, you thought Halo over UC2 was obvious? I was thinking the other way around. Oh, this will get interesting. Uncharted 2 has looked terrible all contest, Sonic Adventure 2 would get 46% on it. --- BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls GotD Bracket: 96/108 Today's Matches: Portal & Mass Effect |
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/2/2010 3:40:42 PM | message detail |
From: transients | #219 Well, it's not like Yoshi and Fox wouldn't drag each other down. We just thought the two characters dealing out the LFF would win over the characters on the receiving end of it. Yoshi looked quite bad that year and didn't really do any damage to Fox at all though, so it kinda messed our theory up. Although it makes sense that the two stronger characters would still get the largest percentage of the vote, which is what happened in Squall/Sora. --- "Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!" "Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!" |
red sox 777 | Posted 12/2/2010 3:41:05 PM | message detail |
Yoshi and Fox probably overlap more than Squall/Sora. --- Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest. |
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/2/2010 3:42:03 PM | message detail |
From: TheOneAboveAll | #221 There's even less to find on that. But The Sims is not GameFAQs' kind of game at all. It'd lose to most anything in this contest. --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/2/2010 3:44:29 PM | message detail |
I
don't know if that's true Leon. The Sims would get a lot of casual
support. People don't come to GameFAQs for it, but there are definitely
plenty of people that come here and have played it and would vote for
it. |
red sox 777 | Posted 12/2/2010 3:44:32 PM | message detail |
MGS2
is the favorite, but you can't really rule out an unknown, like ever.
Or at least you can't find a good reason to do so, even if you're
confident it will lose. The Sims/Banjo Tooie comparison looks good for SotC to me though. The Sims was a really big game- sure Gamefaqs doesn't like it, but Banjo Tooie? It's like Mario Kart Wii and Phoenix Wright, only the Nintendo game is the "obscure" one and Nintendo games basically by definition can never be obscure on this site. --- Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest. |
charmander6000 | Posted 12/2/2010 3:45:25 PM | message detail |
Yoshi and Fox probably overlap more than Squall/Sora. Yet Yoshi performed better in the second round against Squall. --- BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls GotD Bracket: 96/108 Today's Matches: Portal & Mass Effect |
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/2/2010 3:46:51 PM | message detail |
From: TheOneAboveAll | #227 You just saw the game get 30% on SOTC. It's not getting much support of any kind from anywhere. I mean, SimCity lost to The Secret of Monkey Island where you needed 10 freakin' percent to advance. --- "Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!" "Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!" |
transients | Posted 12/2/2010 3:47:34 PM | message detail |
so
Yoshi and Fox, two Nintendo characters from wildly different series'
that share a party fighting game, overlap more than, as you said, two
of the five biggest Square games of the decade? that seems more like an
argument for it being relatively minimal than one against. I'm not saying there's no overlap there, just that it isn't massive and KH wasn't murdered by it. MGS2 put up a *much* better number than SOTC did in their respective matches so it's got some breathing room if there is overlap there. if the overlap is only a few percent, SOTC's in a bad postiion. I actually think SOTC has a decent shot at this one, but if you're gonna number crunch muddy numbers then MGS2 will come out on top. --- xyzzy |
red sox 777 | Posted 12/2/2010 3:48:03 PM | message detail |
But
there's one important fact about Banjo Tooie here: no character from
the Banjo series ever appeared in Smash. This opens it up to the
possibility of obscurity beyond what a Nintendo game can typically
suffer. Even with something like Mother 3, you just knew there were
lots of Smash fans who knew perfectly well what Ness and Earthbound
was, even if they had never played Earthbound, and by extensions knew
what Mother 3 must be. It didn't matter that they hadn't played those
games, the knowledge was enough to save Mother 3 from total obscurity.
Banjo Tooie doesn't have that the shield of Smash here, although it'd
be much stronger than Mother 3 on its own rights. --- Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest. |
charmander6000 | Posted 12/2/2010 3:50:52 PM | message detail |
so
Yoshi and Fox, two Nintendo characters from wildly different series'
that share a party fighting game, overlap more than, as you said, two
of the five biggest Square games of the decade? that seems more like an
argument for it being relatively minimal than one against. Actually Yoshi performing better in the second suggests that Squall and Sora have more overlap and besides didn't you see Mario crushing Fox in 2007? The two series share a fanbase. --- BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls GotD Bracket: 96/108 Today's Matches: Portal & Mass Effect |
charmander6000 | Posted 12/2/2010 3:52:30 PM | message detail |
Personally I think Banjo-Kazooie and in extension Banjo have some strength and have just been hidden all there years. --- BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls GotD Bracket: 96/108 Today's Matches: Portal & Mass Effect |
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/2/2010 3:52:42 PM | message detail |
Well,
in 4-ways KH has always held up well because it gets a lot of LFF and
doesn't really get SFF'd (well, except by Cloud because the only
FF-related thing that Cloud wouldn't SFF 100% of the time is
Sephiroth). It usually makes the stronger game look weaker than it
really is rather than the other way around, at least from what I've
seen. But 4-ways are a mess when it comes to adjusting for SFF/LFF/whatever, and regardless of what you look at stats-wise, MGS2 comes out on top, so it's not like it really matters. If SOTC wins, it's an upset, plain and simple. MGS2 is the favorite. --- "So cold. I am always by your side." "There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!" |
charmander6000 | Posted 12/2/2010 3:53:12 PM | message detail |
there = these --- BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls GotD Bracket: 96/108 Today's Matches: Portal & Mass Effect |
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/2/2010 3:53:40 PM | message detail |
Also,
Fox probably gets a pretty significant chunk of his strength from
Smash, so it's understandable why he'd get overlap pretty good with
another Smash character. --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
ZFS | Posted 12/2/2010 3:54:23 PM | message detail |
MGS2
should be the favorite to win, but SOTC has a great shot at winning as
well. A much better shot than people are wanting to give, the only
thing I'd worry about there is that MGS2 at least is part of a big
series here. GameFAQs more often than not tends to stick to the same
old thing over something different, so that might be the difference
maker. --- There are no foreign lands. It is the traveler only who is foreign. |
xp1337 | Posted 12/2/2010 3:56:46 PM | message detail |
but SOTC has a great shot at winning as well. A much better shot than people are wanting to give What kind of chance would you give it? I'd balk even at a 20% chance of victory. Personally, I probably view it as under 10%. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (93/110) SoA v Mass Effect |
ZFS | Posted 12/2/2010 4:01:17 PM | message detail |
I
don't know about percentages, probably something close to 40%. It's not
hard to imagine Metal Gear Solid 2 losing to Shadow of the Colossus.
Metal Gear, as a whole, is more popular, but MGS2 is by no means a
beloved game, it's not anywhere close to the same tier as the other
Metal Gear Solid games in this contest. Regardless of who wins, I would
expect it to be close. I don't expect SOTC to actually win, because I would take Banjo-Tooie over The Sims and, at the least, MGS2 is still Metal Gear, which makes it easy for most people to just default to what they know. Still, my first instinct on this match, before the contest began, was to go with SOTC. It has always had a shot at this, I think. --- A journey of a thousand miles must begin with a single step. |
Kotetsu534 | Posted 12/2/2010 4:04:17 PM | message detail |
So long as the match-pic isn't Raiden's face, I don't think SOTC will have much chance. ... The match pic's gonna be Raiden's face, isn't it? >.> --- I predict and analyse the Game of the Decade contest here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56817040 |
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/2/2010 4:04:54 PM | message detail |
From: Kotetsu534 | #241 With any luck, it'll be naked cartwheeling Raiden, as I requested from Zen. --- Support Otacon (Metal Gear Solid) for Character Battle IX! http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/1950/banner4otacon.jpg |
pjbasis | Posted 12/2/2010 4:05:41 PM | message detail |
You kidding? That kind of pic wins contests. |
xp1337 | Posted 12/2/2010 4:06:26 PM | message detail |
For
me, I understand that the stats make this look like a debatable match,
it's just, this is a case where I think it has to be looked at from
another angle. Just the idea of a Metal Gear Solid game losing to SotC
seems too out of place here even if statistically it's fairly
realistic. It's an intangible I just can't ignore. If I detached myself from things like "instinct" and "gut feeling" and looked purely the stats I'd agree SotC's are much higher than I'd otherwise give it credit for. But once I factor that back in, SotC's chances in my mind plummet again. They certainly don't go to zero, but they make the climb that much steeper. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (93/110) SoA v Mass Effect |
red sox 777 | Posted 12/2/2010 4:06:31 PM | message detail |
Why does Ulti hate SotC so much anyway? --- Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest. |
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/2/2010 4:07:27 PM | message detail |
From: red sox 777 | #245 Let's not open this can of worms, shall we? --- Support Squirtle (Pokemon R/B/Y) for Character Battle IX! http://img832.imageshack.us/img832/8463/banner2squirtle.jpg |
KamikazePotato | Posted 12/2/2010 4:08:43 PM | message detail |
From: red sox 777 | #245 Let's let the man himself say it! Hey Ulti, why don't you like the supremely amazing game of the ever that is SotC? --- DFF |
transients | Posted 12/2/2010 4:09:06 PM | message detail |
I'll be back for part 963 ...maybe 964 --- xyzzy |
ZFS | Posted 12/2/2010 4:12:59 PM | message detail |
Welp, time to retreat from the stats topic for a while again. --- A journey of a thousand miles must begin with a single step. |
Big Bob | Posted 12/2/2010 4:16:34 PM | message detail |
Let's all talk about how hype for Shadow of the Colossus HD will win it the match! --- http://card.mygamercard.net/Mach+Tornado.png |
