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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 962

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xp1337 | Posted 12/3/2010 10:39:00 AM | message detail
From: Assassin_Thane | #449
Why do people think thousand year door is stronger. It was on gc pm was on n64 I think it's stronger and oblivion is close to fallout 3

I won't rule out PM > TTYD, but no way Oblivion is close to Fallout 3. If it was, it'd be a lock to reach the Division Finals.
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GotD (97/114) Paper Mario v WoW
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xp1337 | Posted 12/3/2010 10:42:38 AM | message detail
From: XxSoulxX | #450
Why do you think the Paper Mario series is worth anything on here? I mean, it's a low midcarder at best. Oblivion already proved it's a really strong game last contest, and I don't see how anything could have changed from then until now.

Because it's Nintendo and it's a JRPG in a day match.

Those are all things I count as intangibles in TTYD's favor. And I wouldn't call Oblivion "really strong." I'd call it a midcarder.

I readily admit that Oblivion just has to be viewed as the favorite, but I just can't shake the feeling this has trap written all over it.

But of course, I also thought Persona 4 was in very little trouble and spent the time instead agonizing over FFXII/Portal, so again, my worries aren't necessarily the most credible thing.
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GotD (97/114) Paper Mario v WoW
XxSoulxX | Posted 12/3/2010 10:42:50 AM | message detail
Oblivion can reach the Quarter Finals depending on if GSC sucks as much as it showed in the first round. I definitely see Oblivion/WW going either way, and both should beat Majora's Mask easily enough.
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xp1337 | Posted 12/3/2010 10:45:38 AM | message detail
From: XxSoulxX | #453
Oblivion can reach the Quarter Finals depending on if GSC sucks as much as it showed in the first round. I definitely see Oblivion/WW going either way, and both should beat Majora's Mask easily enough.

...And this is where we're going to disagree. I have no doubt in my mind that the MM/GSC winner walks away with the division without any significant resistance.

I also think WW will beat Oblivion and am pretty confident about it, but I wouldn't rule out Oblivion there, however I don't see either having a chance against the MM/GSC survivor.
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GotD (97/114) Paper Mario v WoW
WhiteLens | Posted 12/3/2010 10:46:36 AM | message detail
Though in a way of how I see it, taking TTYD > Oblivion is pretty like much saying TTYD > ToS, would you take that?
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xp1337 | Posted 12/3/2010 10:48:46 AM | message detail
From: WhiteLens | #455
Though in a way of how I see it, taking TTYD > Oblivion is pretty like much saying TTYD > ToS, would you take that?

...Probably not.

Again, like I said, logically, I know Oblivion should be favored, I just can't shake the feeling that things are lining up for an upset though.
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GotD (97/114) Paper Mario v WoW
XxSoulxX | Posted 12/3/2010 10:50:59 AM | message detail
Why do you think Majora's Mask is that strong?
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/3/2010 10:51:25 AM | message detail

From: XxSoulxX | #453
Oblivion can reach the Quarter Finals depending on if GSC sucks as much as it showed in the first round.


No way. All three bigtendo games in that division would take it easy.
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tgs2 | Posted 12/3/2010 10:51:46 AM | message detail

From: WhiteLens | #455
Though in a way of how I see it, taking TTYD > Oblivion is pretty like much saying TTYD > ToS, would you take that?


People were saying this about Golden Sun a couple weeks ago. Just saying. It's not wise to tempt fate again here.
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The Mana Sword | Posted 12/3/2010 10:52:37 AM | message detail
Yeah, Oblivion's got no chance to go that far. Pre-contest I'd have entertained it, but ZELDA has been doing too damn well.

Should beat TTYD fine, but Wind Waker is going to be tough.
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transience | Posted 12/3/2010 10:53:12 AM | message detail
this Paper Mario hype is a bit much.
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XxSoulxX | Posted 12/3/2010 10:54:24 AM | message detail
I have WW > Oblivion in my bracket and I believe that will be the result, but I do see it being a 54/46 match at the max, more likely a 52/48 match.

If Oblivion does beat WW, then the only competition is GSC. If GSC has been boosted than it most likely wins, but I'm not calling it until it proves that claim in its next match.
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WhiteLens | Posted 12/3/2010 10:55:38 AM | message detail

From: tgs2 | #459
People were saying this about Golden Sun a couple weeks ago. Just saying. It's not wise to tempt fate again here.


Well I would take GS > R/S/E...

....but Nintendo RPGs have been doing quite well in this contest.
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xp1337 | Posted 12/3/2010 10:56:30 AM | message detail
From: XxSoulxX | #457
Why do you think Majora's Mask is that strong?

Because this is ZeldaFAQs.

Seriously though, I always felt MM > WW, and since R1 did nothing to change my view on that (Granted, Wii Sports is just lol) and since I think WW > Oblivion, there's no one else left to contest the division.

I'm not really basing any of this on hard stats, I don't think that's even possible. There not any good data for either game, is there? Other than going to Spring 2004 for WW, that is, which being over 6 years old, is not good data anymore.
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GotD (97/114) Paper Mario v WoW
The Mana Sword | Posted 12/3/2010 10:58:06 AM | message detail
Chrono Cross is going to beat Majora's Mask anyway.









...
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/3/2010 10:58:37 AM | message detail

From: XxSoulxX | #450
Oblivion already proved it's a really strong game last contest, and I don't see how anything could have changed from then until now.


I dunno if I'd say "really strong." Solid midcarder, sure, but I mean, the game got like 53% on Tales of Symphonia and didn't beat WoW by all that much (although WoW was certainly stronger in the 4-way format).

TTYD scares me for some reason, although I know I shouldn't be worried about it.

Why are we confident it's stronger than the original anyway?
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WhiteLens | Posted 12/3/2010 10:58:47 AM | message detail
Man, now I really regret taking my joke pick of AC > WoW, if only I had 1 more point I'd have a lot better chance of appearing on the leaderboard after this match.
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XxSoulxX | Posted 12/3/2010 10:58:59 AM | message detail
MM is the weakest 3D Zelda game. WW was hated for its graphics before it came out, but is mostly loved now (other than triforce shards and sailing). MM has always been the blacksheep of the 3D console Zelda family and I don't see that changing anytime soon.

Of course, this is based off of real-world facts and GameFAQs a lot of times is completely opposite of that, so we'll see. I just don't see it being possible.
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The Mana Sword | Posted 12/3/2010 10:59:41 AM | message detail
Who's confident that TTYD is stronger than the original?

I'm pretty confident that it's not.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/3/2010 11:01:20 AM | message detail

From: XxSoulxX | #462
I have WW > Oblivion in my bracket and I believe that will be the result, but I do see it being a 54/46 match at the max, more likely a 52/48 match.


Why? Zelda just killed God of War II so much worse than Oblivion beat the original last year, and Zelda did that in an obviously disadvantaged time frame. It'll get Oblivion in the day. Zelda has been mauling everything this contest, and watching TP get within a stone's throw of 70% on Dragon Age has only lessened my confidence in Oblivion giving WW a respectable fight.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 12/3/2010 11:02:06 AM | message detail
TTYD could easily be stronger than PM. It sold a lot more, and is considered the better game by the fanbase. And yes, this match just makes me feel more confident. Oblivion is going down.

No longer on the PM>MGS3 upset train choo choo but it should be close judging from this. Maybe if it were a day match.
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XxSoulxX | Posted 12/3/2010 11:03:45 AM | message detail
WW is a lot weaker than TP, God of War II is much weaker than God of War, and Oblivion is one of the 360's biggest games so it's unfair to think that it will get demolished in a day match.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/3/2010 11:05:12 AM | message detail

From: XxSoulxX | #462
I have WW > Oblivion in my bracket and I believe that will be the result, but I do see it being a 54/46 match at the max, more likely a 52/48 match.


Man, you have a lot of unwarranted faith in SoulCalibur II being worth a crap or you're really underestimating Wind Waker (which is pretty common around here). GoW2 would probably beat SC2 pretty easily. Wind Waker is going to wreck Oblivion (Ulti-style, although pushing 60% honestly wouldn't surprise me. I've really lost faith in Oblivion being all that good).

From: xp1337 | #451
From: Assassin_Thane | #449
Why do people think thousand year door is stronger. It was on gc pm was on n64 I think it's stronger and oblivion is close to fallout 3

I won't rule out PM > TTYD, but no way Oblivion is close to Fallout 3. If it was, it'd be a lock to reach the Division Finals.


Wind Waker would beat Fallout 3.

And Wind Waker would beat Majora's Mask if it somehow manages to beat G/S/C.

From: XxSoulxX | #472
WW is a lot weaker than TP, God of War II is much weaker than God of War, and Oblivion is one of the 360's biggest games so it's unfair to think that it will get demolished in a day match.


Wind Waker's closer to TP than a lot of people are willing to give it credit for, I'd imagine.

Not sure why you think GoW2 is so much weaker than the original though.
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AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 12/3/2010 11:05:12 AM | message detail
Wait, somebody believes Oblivion will beat a console 3D Zelda?

Now THERE is a match I'd love to bet a testicle and a sig on. It's a freebie.
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MegatokyoEd | Posted 12/3/2010 11:06:37 AM | message detail
Am I the only one who thinks it being a day match favors Oblivion even more? Oblivion and Morrowind have always shown to be better in the day and we've already seen Mario can easily lose the day vote(NSMB vs MvC2).
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AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 12/3/2010 11:07:36 AM | message detail
In fact, I'd toss in a spread. Zelda definitely tops 53% there. I'd probably feel pretty confident about 54% too.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/3/2010 11:08:32 AM | message detail
I don't think WW/Oblivion's final percentage will be much different regardless of whether it's a day match or a night match.

And modern Mario is pretty bad at the day vote, for whatever the reason. Galaxy sucks with the day vote, too.
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XxSoulxX | Posted 12/3/2010 11:08:47 AM | message detail
Not sure why you think GoW2 is so much weaker than the original though.

The original is usually always stronger than every game afterwards, with the exception of obvious series' (SSB, Mario Kart, Street Fighter, Resident Evil). I don't see GoW2 being close to GoW.

Wait, somebody believes Oblivion will beat a console 3D Zelda?

Not that I know of, but it could be close.
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Woe unto he who sig bets with the near-invincible Lord High creativename
xp1337 | Posted 12/3/2010 11:08:57 AM | message detail
Wind Waker would beat Fallout 3.

...what.

Zelda is a monster, but there are limits to what its lesser games can do here.

I'd take Fallout 3 against WW with no doubts. I don't even think WW gets to 45%.
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GotD (97/114) Paper Mario v WoW
XxSoulxX | Posted 12/3/2010 11:09:51 AM | message detail
In fact, I'd toss in a spread. Zelda definitely tops 53% there. I'd probably feel pretty confident about 54% too.

I predicted between 52/48 and 54/46. Don't know who you're arguing against...
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KamikazePotato | Posted 12/3/2010 11:10:10 AM | message detail
Wind Waker did better on God of War II than Oblivion did on Soul Calibur II. That says it all.

I would set TTYD=Paper Mario.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/3/2010 11:12:39 AM | message detail

From: XxSoulxX | #478
The original is usually always stronger than every game afterwards, with the exception of obvious series' (SSB, Mario Kart, Street Fighter, Resident Evil). I don't see GoW2 being close to GoW.


I buy GoW1 being stronger, but it's the much stronger I'd take issue with.

From: xp1337 | #479
I'd take Fallout 3 against WW with no doubts. I don't even think WW gets to 45%.


Man, Fallout 3 getting 55% on Wind Waker?

You are either overestimating how strong FO3 is or underestimating how strong WW is.

Probably both.
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MegatokyoEd | Posted 12/3/2010 11:13:14 AM | message detail
I'd take Fallout 3 against WW with no doubts. I don't even think WW gets to 45%.

....is this for real?
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red sox 777 | Posted 12/3/2010 11:13:23 AM | message detail
Wind Waker breaks 45% on Fallout 3 easily. Fallout 3 got 43% on MGS4 last year, so it'd struggle to put up 40% on Melee/Brawl. Wind Waker got 35% on Melee, after SFF. For WW to fail to break 45% on FO3, the SFF it suffered against Melee would have had to been minimal, and this is a case where I'd believe there was massive SFF before believing there was minimal SFF.
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AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 12/3/2010 11:14:09 AM | message detail
Not as much arguing, but I'm guessing between 54% and 58% with a small margin of error on either edge. And probably more of a bias towards 55-56%
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transience | Posted 12/3/2010 11:14:40 AM | message detail
55% on Wind Waker would probably beat FFX.
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xp1337 | Posted 12/3/2010 11:15:24 AM | message detail
Man, Fallout 3 getting 55% on Wind Waker?

You are either overestimating how strong FO3 is or underestimating how strong WW is.

Probably both.


Well, compared to what I've put together from your expectations here, I'd agree with probably both!
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GotD (97/114) Paper Mario v WoW
ShatteredElysium | Posted 12/3/2010 11:16:34 AM | message detail
I'd take WW over Fallout without a second thought. Match would probably be close (52-54 ish for WW?) but I don't know, I just wouldn't have faith whatsoever in Fallout to put away a Zelda.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/3/2010 11:17:17 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3493
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3501

Well, neither of these performances strikes me as a "I can get 55% on Wind Waker."

Especially after what we've seen CoD4 do this contest.
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transience | Posted 12/3/2010 11:17:47 AM | message detail
wait, how can you think Fallout could crush Zelda and Paper Mario could beat Oblivion? that's just weird.
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xp1337 | Posted 12/3/2010 11:18:31 AM | message detail
From: transience | #486
55% on Wind Waker would probably beat FFX.

...Are you guys messing with me? Or am I seriously underestimating WW that much? I'd believe it, but seriously what?

I could see that if we took Spring 2004 xstats at face value or something.

I mean, what are we even basing WW's strength off of? It was stuck behind Melee in lol4ways, and has gone up against AC2. That's all I can see.
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xp1337 | Posted 12/3/2010 11:20:58 AM | message detail
...

everything becomes clear now.

My view on Fallout 3 has been permanently frozen on that [lol] Game of the Year poll. I literally forgot it was even in the last contest!

Well, that's totally embarrassing!

Okay, yeah, I'll admit Fallout 3 getting 55% on WW is lolz, but I'm still wondering how 55% on WW became a threat to FFX though.
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GotD (97/114) Paper Mario v WoW
red sox 777 | Posted 12/3/2010 11:22:00 AM | message detail
It got 35% on Melee after SFF, so I'd expect 40%+ before SFF. That God of War 2 match suggests it's substantially above 40%. 55% on Metroid Prime from back in 2004 suggests much the same thing. Starcraft is Starcraft, but how much could it have boosted in 4 days? Well, a lot, evidently, but more than 10% seems unlikely even for Starcraft.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/3/2010 11:22:04 AM | message detail

From: xp1337 | #491
...Are you guys messing with me? Or am I seriously underestimating WW that much?


I think so.

But I'm the guy who for some reason believes in Wind Waker's strength despite having zero rooting interest in the game. Wind Waker has never really gotten a chance to prove itself until it put up 64% on God of War 2, which isn't going to be a weak game. It rocked RE5 and Metroid Fusion in the vote-ins, which both proved to be decently strong games (and RE5 got decently close to the original God of War, to boot). That's enough for me.
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xp1337 | Posted 12/3/2010 11:22:37 AM | message detail
From: transience | #490
wait, how can you think Fallout could crush Zelda and Paper Mario could beat Oblivion? that's just weird.

Key word: "could"

And I don't know. All I know is that my gut is telling me it's possible, even though every time I analyze it logically I come up with, "No, that's silly."
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (97/114) Paper Mario v WoW
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/3/2010 11:23:53 AM | message detail
All I know is that it's going to be a fun day when Wind Waker beats Oblivion, especially if it actually approaches 60%.
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red sox 777 | Posted 12/3/2010 11:24:24 AM | message detail
Wasn't Wind Waker favored to win the 128 division back in 2004? I think FFX was the favorite actually, but WW had more brackets than Melee.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 12/3/2010 11:24:58 AM | message detail
I believe the percentage will be less than 33% for this match...
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Hochimihnister | Posted 12/3/2010 11:25:49 AM | message detail
Zelda has done nothing but disappoint me all contest. I will be floored if WW can break 54% on Oblivion
Hochimihnister | Posted 12/3/2010 11:27:28 AM | message detail
Floored