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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 961

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transients | Posted 12/1/2010 3:14:52 PM | message detail
Dead Rising 50.07% 13958
Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 4 49.93% 13920
TOTAL VOTES 27878

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~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
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~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Solid Snake, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.
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xyzzy
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Articuno2001 | Posted 12/1/2010 3:21:23 PM | message detail
Persona 4 > Dead Rising
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2010 Game of the Decade Contest - 91/104 points - Today: Resident Evil 4 / Dead Rising
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DpObliVion | Posted 12/1/2010 3:22:24 PM | message detail
Persona 4 crumbling....

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Booyah, Grandma. Booyah. {XI} dood
Bigwig_rah | Posted 12/1/2010 3:22:31 PM | message detail
This is the same thing Dead Rising did to TWEWY. Why can't good games hold the lead against this piece of ****?
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See You Space Cowboy...
transients | Posted 12/1/2010 3:22:52 PM | message detail
I won't feel comfortable here until DR has at least a 400 vote lead. Persona fans are too rabid to let their game go out quietly.
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xyzzy
kinsho3 | Posted 12/1/2010 3:23:16 PM | message detail

From: ExThaNemesis | #322
What, in the guru?

When I get all of r3 and r4 right I'll move way the **** up. I'm not worried.

Also, you have FFX winning how dare you criticize me.


If I remember correctly, ExTha, you're one of my rival brackets. I think you and a couple other brackets have SSBM > G/S/C in the finals.

So it's on, punk.
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It takes a genius to make something simple truly great.
Dr. Football, you are the man! I'll take you down next contest though...
Pondos | Posted 12/1/2010 3:23:29 PM | message detail
P4 is poised to take the SNV.

Yet I can't help but feel that it won't.
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Mega is all like 'pew pew mother****ers' and X us all like 'pew pew but only if I have to' -ChidoriNoJutsu
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MegatokyoEd | Posted 12/1/2010 3:23:35 PM | message detail
DR is going to upset RE4 by making the biggest comeback in history just to piss everyone off even more.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
http://www.last.fm/user/crazydom
ZFS | Posted 12/1/2010 3:23:51 PM | message detail
Persona what a failure why did I switch my battle challenge
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The whole object of travel is not to set foot on foreign land; it is at last to set foot on one's own country as a foreign land.
WhiteLens | Posted 12/1/2010 3:23:51 PM | message detail
And that ends my perfect Round 2 streak....
But it was with picking Persona 4, so that's ok!
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Only on GameFAQs would criticallly acclaimed PC games lose to niche JRPGs
Go Us!
tgs2 | Posted 12/1/2010 3:23:59 PM | message detail

From: Bigwig_rah | #004
This is the same thing Dead Rising did to TWEWY. Why can't good games hold the lead against this piece of ****?


they aren't popular enough here. deal with it.
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You may take Mr. Rogers down, but I will be back and become more powerful than you ever imagine
"tgs is taking it alone"
kinsho3 | Posted 12/1/2010 3:24:29 PM | message detail
All right, DR built up a lead of 100 votes so far. Keep kicking ass, DR.
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It takes a genius to make something simple truly great.
Dr. Football, you are the man! I'll take you down next contest though...
Azp2k32 | Posted 12/1/2010 3:27:07 PM | message detail
this is why I don't listen to b8
changed my battle bracket to persona last minute.
thankfully, my regular bracket remains with all its Dead Rising-y glory
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"I submitted brackets on all [224] of my accounts so they would get the 10 free Karma for beating SBAllen's score." - Luster Soldier
DpObliVion | Posted 12/1/2010 3:27:10 PM | message detail
Cut! Keep fighting!

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Booyah, Grandma. Booyah. {XI} dood
HaRRicH | Posted 12/1/2010 3:28:14 PM | message detail

From: transients | #005
I won't feel comfortable here until DR has at least a 400 vote lead. Persona fans are too rabid to let their game go out quietly.


I keep seeing comments like this, but Persona let SF4 beat it last year by seven votes, so I'm not convinced yet. I don't care if no points were on the line -- it was in a struggle only Board 8 cared about and lost despite being hyped that Persona-fans wouldn't let it down.
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"Support Epona because we've run out of good ideas." --Leonhart
http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg
greatone10 | Posted 12/1/2010 3:28:22 PM | message detail
Thankfully, I banked on GTASA/Golden Sun. Between that match and this match going on, I was destined to lose a crapton of points.
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"Go get me Jared...from Subway!" -- CM Punk
This space reserved for Game of the Decade Guru Contest Winner.
ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/1/2010 3:28:33 PM | message detail

From: kinsho3 | #006
If I remember correctly, ExTha, you're one of my rival brackets. I think you and a couple other brackets have SSBM > G/S/C in the finals.

So it's on, punk.


I'm sorry but you are not a threat in the slightest!
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"I would totally audition to be Extha's best friend" - Mer
See You Space Cowboy
swordz9 | Posted 12/1/2010 3:29:16 PM | message detail
Persona only lost to SF4 by 7 votes. It's not like it completely crumbled.
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/1/2010 3:31:53 PM | message detail
Persona only lost to SF4 by 7 votes. It's not like it completely crumbled.

Persona 4 also only lost the lead at the end of the match.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 94/104 Today's Matches: RE4 & TWEWY
transients | Posted 12/1/2010 3:32:00 PM | message detail
man, Persona vs. SF4 for third place didn't even matter. we aren't the only ones that care.
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xyzzy
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 12/1/2010 3:32:40 PM | message detail
Man Persona sucks
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My God, did that predict good!
Dr_Football-l-l it no goin' and you tell me do things, I done runnin'...
kinsho3 | Posted 12/1/2010 3:33:00 PM | message detail

From: ExThaNemesis | #017
I'm sorry but you are not a threat in the slightest!


The feeling's mutual :)
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It takes a genius to make something simple truly great.
Dr. Football, you are the man! I'll take you down next contest though...
HaRRicH | Posted 12/1/2010 3:33:52 PM | message detail
I wouldn't want to say it crumbed anyway. I'm just not fully buying the rabid fanbase Board 8 houses for Persona to come through in a way we might expect Frog to.
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http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg
Epona: C^ C< C>, C^ C< C>
kinsho3 | Posted 12/1/2010 3:34:06 PM | message detail
Even if the Persona fanbase were to try to pull a rally, what could they really do? Are there any major sites out there dedicated to Persona?
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It takes a genius to make something simple truly great.
Dr. Football, you are the man! I'll take you down next contest though...
Mr3790 | Posted 12/1/2010 3:34:11 PM | message detail
Good job Dead Rising, my bracket lives on. As well as the better game.
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This space for rent.
VeryInsane | Posted 12/1/2010 3:34:34 PM | message detail
Both Personas did win.

Although it's now between No Mercy and Braid for weakest contest entrant after RE4 destroys Dead Rising next match due to massive SFF.
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Hail to VI, Village Idiot!
Currently Playing: Mass Effect 2, Pokemon Heart Gold, and some other games that aren't important
swordz9 | Posted 12/1/2010 3:34:58 PM | message detail
There's the Atlus forums, but I don't know how active they are. It doesn't seem like anybody in particular is even rallying it.
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http://myanimelist.net/animelist/swordz9
Jman_maximum | Posted 12/1/2010 3:35:16 PM | message detail
you don't honestly believe that DR is the better game do you?

have you even played persona 4?
charmander6000 | Posted 12/1/2010 3:35:25 PM | message detail
I took the percent from major places over the last 30 minutes and DR went up everywhere except Oceania and California. The biggest jump was in North America, mostly from US and Canada.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 94/104 Today's Matches: RE4 & TWEWY
TheCodeisBosco | Posted 12/1/2010 3:39:01 PM | message detail
Looks like Mr. West decided to...

(puts on sunglasses)

...Runaway with the lead.

YEAAAAAAH

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CURRENT GOTY SCORE: 97
Wake up, Mr. West... WAKE UP, MR. WEST!!!
kinsho3 | Posted 12/1/2010 3:40:30 PM | message detail
Interestingly enough, the West Coast hasn't flipped over to DR yet. Persona still retains Oregon and Cali.
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It takes a genius to make something simple truly great.
Dr. Football, you are the man! I'll take you down next contest though...
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 12/1/2010 3:42:47 PM | message detail
Guys how long was Persona 4 winning for?
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Currently Playing - Zelda: Majora's Mask
Next Games Up - Super Smash Bros. Melee, Resident Evil 4, Okami
xp1337 | Posted 12/1/2010 3:42:57 PM | message detail
From: transients | #005
I won't feel comfortable here until DR has at least a 400 vote lead. Persona fans are too rabid to let their game go out quietly.

Unless Persona starts making sustained cuts by around 9 PM EST, I think 400 is overkill.

Personally, I think Persona needs to be at Down 100 maybe 150 going into the final hour to even have a chance. Not even a good chance, just a chance at all.

I still think a 300 vote lead ends this, and even at about 250, I imagine Persona 4 is about doomed.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (91/106) Dead Rising v Persona 4
swordz9 | Posted 12/1/2010 3:43:24 PM | message detail
Almost the first 6 hours.
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GrapefruitKing | Posted 12/1/2010 3:46:51 PM | message detail
Persona 4 keeping it relatively close, but if it gets to 200 this match is absolutely over, methinks
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Oracle contest - 18th
Today's pick: Persona 4 - 52.85% Status:
MegatokyoEd | Posted 12/1/2010 3:48:55 PM | message detail
Persona 4 is really impressing me. Most times we get a comeback these days the opponent just rolls over and dies. This is one hell of a struggle it's putting up.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
http://www.last.fm/user/crazydom
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 12/1/2010 3:49:23 PM | message detail
So I gather that Dead Rising has only been able to keep a lead of around 100 votes for the last two hours or so?

Lol P4. Board favorites seem to be commiting suicide this contest, with the possible exception of SSBM.
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Currently Playing - Zelda: Majora's Mask
Next Games Up - Super Smash Bros. Melee, Resident Evil 4, Okami
Achromatic | Posted 12/1/2010 3:50:31 PM | message detail

From: LinkMarioSamus | #037
So I gather that Dead Rising has only been able to keep a lead of around 100 votes for the last two hours or so?

Lol P4. Board favorites seem to be commiting suicide this contest, with the possible exception of SSBM.


That's...simply not true.
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Sir Chris
DpObliVion | Posted 12/1/2010 3:51:26 PM | message detail
Hmm, grabbed some dinner, came back to see the lead just about the same. Good stalling by P4 to end the afternoon! Bring on the SNV!

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Booyah, Grandma. Booyah. {XI} dood
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/1/2010 3:52:21 PM | message detail
Interestingly enough, the West Coast hasn't flipped over to DR yet. Persona still retains Oregon and Cali.

West coast includes Nevada as well, because it's in the same timezone as Oregon and California.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 12/1/2010 3:54:34 PM | message detail
Also boy is it ironic that Dead Rising will outlast all the GTA games. But Dead Rising is from the *Mega Man* creator so maybe...Dead Rising vs. Demon's Souls who've you got?
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Currently Playing - Zelda: Majora's Mask
Next Games Up - Super Smash Bros. Melee, Resident Evil 4, Okami
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 12/1/2010 3:57:22 PM | message detail
Dead Rising, otherwise Okami beats Persona 4 badly...which would mean Okami might be able to give FFIX a fight. >_>
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Eeeevil Overlord | Posted 12/1/2010 3:59:11 PM | message detail
On the battle leaderboard, hurrah! If Dead Rising holds on I'll be on the main leaderboard, too. But that's big if, I'm guessing...
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James - Board 8's Resident Warm And Safe, Slipper-Wearing User
& The Cream of Porcupine Tree Fanboyism
Achromatic | Posted 12/1/2010 4:01:06 PM | message detail
this.

contest.
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Sir Chris
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/1/2010 4:01:12 PM | message detail
Wow, Persona is still in this.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
red sox 777 | Posted 12/1/2010 4:01:19 PM | message detail
Well, we're in the middle of the West Coast ASV right now, where Persona is doing better than the rest of the US. DR is really running up the numbers in the Midwest.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
ff6man | Posted 12/1/2010 4:02:11 PM | message detail
Whoa massive cut suddenly I have hope again!
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Rs Name: I g g l y - Skill Total - 2110+ - Combat level 130, 309/309 Quest Points
swordz9 | Posted 12/1/2010 4:03:03 PM | message detail
Haha Persona 4 just refuses to lay down and die. Matches like these are really fun. It'd be hilarious if Brawl vs Melee was like this for about 5-6 hours.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/1/2010 4:03:05 PM | message detail
Yeah, Cali dominates this timeframe, and Persona is still holding to the lead there. It'll need more when all of Europe is asleep, but just keeping it close could fuel rallies at the end.
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Yoblazer: http://i38.tinypic.com/2s024p4.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Kamekguy | Posted 12/1/2010 4:03:18 PM | message detail
*reaches out to the truth*
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"Have you tried the rolling jump? We apes have no need to obey the laws of physics" - Cranky Kong