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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 959

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creativename | Posted 11/30/2010 6:16:37 PM | message detail

From: transients | #801
I hadn't heard this idea. if anything it would make the older games look better than normal since all the big guns are going to crush the little games.

old games have always been overvalued in my opinion, so much so that everyone was pretty confident in a clean FF7 victory (and not because of LTTP/FFX overlap, either). OOT came along and showed that new games were pretty strong in and of themselves. (OOT was in the 'new' half of the bracket)

I disagree with you very strongly. Yes newer games run deeper, but there's little question to me - the older games were underrated due to generational SFF.

I don' tknow how you can call FF7 an "old" game while OoT is a "new" one. They are like a year and a half apart. Even in 2004 they were considered contemporaries. What bracket they were placed in is fairly meaningless.

From: red sox 777 | #860
The idea was brought up by someone before FFVII/OOT, I remember. It was always true (basically, the upper half of the bracket was filled with Nintendo LFF), but in the context of our old/new debate I remember it felt almost like preemptive damage control.

I have no idea what your debate was, but everyone was screaming generational SFF would happen as soon as the generational division thing was announced. I definitely remember that.

From: Greyfeld | #805
I was thinking we could do a contest similar to GOTD, but for characters. "Character of the Decade" contest, or something like that. Basically, you only include characters who were created in 2000-2009. Doing that pretty much eliminates the entire Noble Nine from the characters bracket. allowing for a contest where the winner is actually up in the air.

Augh. Who would want to see a popularity contest between horribly unpopular characters. Even with only *16* entrants the character pool would stink. Terrible and will thankfully never happen.

From: SuperWhiscash | #954
all fictional characters allowed >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> COTD

Starred/appeared in a video game, you mean. Same thing for all practical purposes (any fictional character remotely of note has had a major game role), but sounds much more relevant to the site.
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transients | Posted 11/30/2010 6:18:58 PM | message detail

I don' tknow how you can call FF7 an "old" game while OoT is a "new" one. They are like a year and a half apart.

it's because FF7 is in the 'old' half and OOT the 'new' one. FF7's performances were perceived to be better in the later rounds thanks to older games being overestimated (or newer games underestimated, whatev)
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creativename | Posted 11/30/2010 6:19:23 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #960
I say we do an FFVII vs. OOT mini-contest. 16 FFVII characters, 16 OOT characters- by the time we're done, both games will be so hated that they might have a chance of losing in the next games contest!

They could run FF7 and OoT related polls for a month straight and both games would still slaughter everything else on day 31 as long as it was a 1v1.

Hell, it might make them stronger as people might go "Man, I haven't played Ocarina in a while, gotta replay it!"
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creativename | Posted 11/30/2010 6:22:40 PM | message detail

From: transients | #1002
I don' tknow how you can call FF7 an "old" game while OoT is a "new" one. They are like a year and a half apart.

it's because FF7 is in the 'old' half and OOT the 'new' one. FF7's performances were perceived to be better in the later rounds thanks to older games being overestimated (or newer games underestimated, whatev)

Like I said, the bracket placement is meanginless.

I'm not really sure what your latter point is. FF7 did better on OoT than the vast majority of people expected pre-contest. And it did a lot better than the Oracle consensus (51.05%).

Also it's quite the opposite. Older games were underrated, newer games overrated. Due to generational SFF and also Starcraft. There is NO WAY the other way around is true.
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Greyfeld | Posted 11/30/2010 6:22:54 PM | message detail

Augh. Who would want to see a popularity contest between horribly unpopular characters. Even with only *16* entrants the character pool would stink. Terrible and will thankfully never happen.

But if all we're not going to narrow the field a bit, then we may as well just cut Chrono and run the remainder of the N9 to watch Link win again. Out of 10 years of new IPs and new series, there has to be at least 64 characters worth putting in a contest.
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Greyfeld | Posted 11/30/2010 6:24:41 PM | message detail

That was supposed to read "cut Chrono and run an 8-man bracket with the remainder of the N9."
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/30/2010 6:24:56 PM | message detail

Transience and I had a big debate following a comment I made late in the 2009 contest that LTTP would get 58% on FFX. Initially things went well for me, with LTTP putting up the same number on FFVII as FFX put on OOT, only with LTTP having Mario 3 and Mario World LFFing it, while FFX benefitted from LFF from Brawl. OOT handily beating FFVII forced me to dial down that 58% though......I'd be pretty happy if LTTP broke 55% on FFX now.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.

IngmarBirdman | Posted 11/30/2010 6:26:58 PM | message detail

I say we do an FFVII vs. OOT mini-contest. 16 FFVII characters, 16 OOT characters- by the time we're done, both games will be so hated that they might have a chance of losing in the next games contest!

Deku Nuts v. Deku Sticks

WHO YA TAKIN'

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transients | Posted 11/30/2010 6:28:52 PM | message detail

I'm not really sure what your latter point is. FF7 did better on OoT than the vast majority of people expected pre-contest. And it did a lot better than the Oracle consensus (51.05%).

huh? are you saying what I think you're saying -- that Ocarina of Time was the favourite?

Expectations
Final Fantasy VII - 36.55%
Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 35.19%
Zelda: A Link to the Past - 14.72%
Final Fantasy X - 13.72%

Final Fantasy 7 (171, 79%)
Ocarina of Time (36, 17%)

coulda fooled me!

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xyzzy

red sox 777 | Posted 11/30/2010 6:34:15 PM | message detail

FF7's performances were perceived to be better in the later rounds thanks to older games being overestimated (or newer games underestimated, whatev)

It was really hard to try to gauge FF7 and OOT based on their performances in that contest. There was too much SFF flying around to tell much of anything. The only round where FF7 looked flat out better to me was round 3, whereas OOT looked better in round 2. I do have a theory that KP's picture really helped RBY in round 3 (and so hurt OOT).
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.

Haste_2 | Posted 11/30/2010 6:42:04 PM | message detail

Indeed, it was hard to gauage which was the stronger of the two. Most assumed FF7 would win, even after five rounds, I believe because Zelda:OoT "only" managed 38.7% against MGS,RBY, and FF8 (I still find it funny how Zelda:OoT got a HIGHER percentage in the finalsl; of course, that's because LTTP and FFX were SFFed like crazy).

FF7's percentage was higher against what was supposedly comparable - Mario 64, CT, and Goldeneye. Back in 2004 the Mario/CT/007 group arguably would have been stronger.

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/30/2010 6:43:40 PM | message detail

I think you guys are talking about different contests.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/30/2010 6:43:53 PM | message detail

From: creativename | #204
Like I said, the bracket placement is meanginless.

I'm not really sure what your latter point is. FF7 did better on OoT than the vast majority of people expected pre-contest. And it did a lot better than the Oracle consensus (51.05%).

Also it's quite the opposite. Older games were underrated, newer games overrated. Due to generational SFF and also Starcraft. There is NO WAY the other way around is true.

You're talking about 2004, right? Yeah, I thought this was common knowledge.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/30/2010 6:44:22 PM | message detail

And ninja'd by the Persian, once again, because I cannot make a good point first anymore.

I hate you all.
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/30/2010 6:47:16 PM | message detail

RBY's 37% on OOT really was exceptional. If it had just maintained that 37% the next round, it would have beaten FFX despite Triple SFF. I really think the picture caused a small overperformance there.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.

charmander6000 | Posted 11/30/2010 6:52:17 PM | message detail

Match LXXXV: (1) Resident Evil 4 vs. (8) Grand Theft Auto: Vice City

Last Round

Resident Evil 4 – 82.15%
Jet Grind Radio – 17.85%

Grand Theft Auto: Vice City – 63.57%
Silent Hill 2 – 36.43%

Analysis

I’m starting to believe that Grand Theft Auto may be anti-voted a lot more than I once thought. The evidence is quite clear, it underperformers against weak opponents, but the game puts up respectable against strong opponents. Resident Evil 4 shouldn’t have much problem winning this match, but I feel that some people are expecting too much from the game.

Last round Silent Hill 2 was able to perform a lot better than what the stats suggest and considering that there is little separation and the fact that Vice City had two out of the three of the same opponents I would have considered that prediction to be reliable. There’s no reason for Vice City to be weaker this contest so either anti-votes were in play or Silent Hill 2 has hit with PS2 SFF while Vice City wasn’t. Either way I expect Vice City to have a respectable performance because as an anti-voted game goes up against stronger game chances are those anti-voters were going to vote for that game in the first place thus making their effect weaker.

Kingdom Hearts was able to almost break 62% on Vice City so I’m expecting it to be at around that percent. A lot of people are probably going to use this match as insight to which of the two Kingdom Hearts games is going to win. Despite having four games from the series all with decent strength Grand Theft Auto is locked out of the third round for another contest.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Resident Evil 4 > GTA: Vice City

charmander6000’s Prediction: Resident Evil 4 wins, 61.32% - 38.68%

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GotD Bracket: 90/100 Today's Matches: SW: KotOR & FFIX

SuperWhiscash | Posted 11/30/2010 6:57:01 PM | message detail

From: creativename | #201

[quoted text]

Starred/appeared in a video game, you mean. Same thing for all practical purposes (any fictional character remotely of note has had a major game role), but sounds much more relevant to the site.

in a word, yeah.
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IngmarBirdman | Posted 11/30/2010 7:19:11 PM | message detail

Great Items Battle?
Great Weapons Battle?
Great Inanimate Objects Battle?
Too anticlimactic?

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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/30/2010 7:43:53 PM | message detail

So....what does RE4 need to get to be in contention with FFX? >_>
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transients | Posted 11/30/2010 7:44:29 PM | message detail

Vice City beats Borderlands, right?

a doubling would be ideal.
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swordz9 | Posted 11/30/2010 7:45:00 PM | message detail

Man Persona 3 has been gunning for 31% all day and hasn't quite gotten there. I wonder if it will actually make it before the match ends or stay stuck at the 30.80-95% range.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/30/2010 7:45:06 PM | message detail

A doubling would start scaring me.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/30/2010 7:46:06 PM | message detail

I'd definitely take VC > Borderlands, personally.

FFX is so small-time.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/30/2010 7:46:23 PM | message detail

Vice City should beat Borderlands, but does anyone feel confident picking GTA to win a debatable match ever again?

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DFF

creativename | Posted 11/30/2010 7:48:14 PM | message detail

From: transients | #1009
huh? are you saying what I think you're saying -- that Ocarina of Time was the favourite?

Yes, as they said I was clearly talking about 2004. If you are talking about 2009 you are still aren't making sense to me.

I don't see anything in the last contest that in any supports the backwards notion of older games being overrated relative to newer games back in 2004, outside of the fact that games like Chrono Trigger had been declining for a while (which we had already seen from character contests). The only stuff that really jumps out is how underrated Mario 64, Goldeneye etc. were (but we pretty much knew that, it was just a question of degree), and I would definitely qualify those as older games. Generational/console SFF being obviously the major issue - Zelda/Mario games from different eras SFF much less than Ocarina and M64.

I don't think there was a single game from the 128 division that was underrated, which is as what one should have expected, as they had reason to be overrated and not underrated. The problem for some older games was aging and the older gamers who played those games leaving the site, not anything that happened in 2004.

The only old/new thing that was a big surprise was SMB3 vs. SMW, but that doesn't fit what you're saying because SMW was also old as hell.

From: Greyfeld | #1005
But if all we're not going to narrow the field a bit, then we may as well just cut Chrono and run the remainder of the N9 to watch Link win again. Out of 10 years of new IPs and new series, there has to be at least 64 characters worth putting in a contest.

Batman would embarrass half the noble nine.

Other than that, these contests are certainly getting dull. I wouldn't be following this one if not for the Oracle. Character of the Decade would be so pitiful I think it would be the last straw for a lot of us because, augh. Just augh. Horrible idea.

From: IngmarBirdman | #1058
Great Items Battle?
Great Weapons Battle?
Great Inanimate Objects Battle?
Too anticlimactic?

Random Piece of FF7 Furniture was always presumed to be beastly.

Wonder what the best OoT rep could be. I would nominate Epona's saddle. Perhaps LInk's man-skirt. ...or maybe Zelda's bra! Hmm...too bad "Tifa's cleavage" would no doubt be disallowed.

Though I've long maintained "Attack button" from the Final Fantasy games would be a monster, but nobody else thinks of it. ?-block vs. Attack Button finals I'd say! ?-block probably wins.

Inanimate object contest would probably be fairly popular just because of all the zaniness. The sad part is the winner would probably be stronger than every character this decade other than maybe Auron and perhaps Dante.
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abdou | Posted 11/30/2010 7:48:44 PM | message detail

Hating FFX is so cool.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/30/2010 7:50:07 PM | message detail

Hey, I'm playing FFX right now! Its pretty good, but RE4 it aint!
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IngmarBirdman | Posted 11/30/2010 8:04:33 PM | message detail

Right now I'm envisioning a GameFAQs Great Weapons Battle...

Dr. Football wins the preceeding contest and makes the board nominate the Klobb from 007 and it becomes another WWF No Mercy.

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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/30/2010 8:06:12 PM | message detail

Though I've long maintained "Attack button" from the Final Fantasy games would be a monster, but nobody else thinks of it. ?-block vs. Attack Button finals I'd say! ?-block probably wins.

I've been nominating ? Block for every character contest since ? Block defeated L-Block in a silly bonus match. However, ? Block hasn't managed to make it into an actual contest yet.
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TheCodeisBosco | Posted 11/30/2010 8:53:01 PM | message detail

Screw the ? Block, Paddle should have won that match!

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CURRENT GOTY SCORE: 93
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Master Moltar | Posted 11/30/2010 9:00:10 PM | message detail

Resident Evil 4 83.33%

10
Grand Theft Auto: Vice City 16.67%

2
TOTAL VOTES 12
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Moltar Status: 92 Points - Vote: RE4
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/30/2010 9:00:28 PM | message detail

RESIDENT

EVIl

FOUUUUUUUUUUUR

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DFF

WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/30/2010 9:00:28 PM | message detail

oh god the board vote
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/30/2010 9:00:32 PM | message detail

Resident Evil 4 81.82% 9
Grand Theft Auto: Vice City 18.18% 2
TOTAL VOTES 11

Sorry Tommy, but this is Vice City.
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GotD Bracket: 94/104 Today's Matches: RE4 & TWEWY

TheCodeisBosco | Posted 11/30/2010 9:00:33 PM | message detail

Resident Evil 4 is going to the finals.

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CURRENT GOTY SCORE: 93
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/30/2010 9:00:42 PM | message detail

Resident Evil 4 80.16%

101
Grand Theft Auto: Vice City 19.84%

25
TOTAL VOTES 126

Holy ****
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/30/2010 9:00:44 PM | message detail

uh
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GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/30/2010 9:00:46 PM | message detail

so uh
... it's still over 80%
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Oracle contest - 18th
Today's pick: Resident Evil 4 - 65.23% Status:

TheCodeisBosco | Posted 11/30/2010 9:00:54 PM | message detail

(Not really, but how awesome would that be?)

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CURRENT GOTY SCORE: 93
Did I mention that you should watch Outsourced?

FFDragon | Posted 11/30/2010 9:00:58 PM | message detail

x
f
d

that is all
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Iamthekuzalol | Posted 11/30/2010 9:00:59 PM | message detail

RE4 > FFX

KamikazePotato | Posted 11/30/2010 9:01:09 PM | message detail

Well gosh darn

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DFF

Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 11/30/2010 9:01:14 PM | message detail

Vercetti, youre small time.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/30/2010 9:01:16 PM | message detail

Final Fantasy IX 61.99%

Pretty low with 3 fodder games.
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GotD Bracket: 94/104 Today's Matches: RE4 & TWEWY

GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/30/2010 9:01:33 PM | message detail

what the bloody hell, only 62% had FFIX going to Round 3
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Oracle contest - 18th
Today's pick: Resident Evil 4 - 65.23% Status:

ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/30/2010 9:01:56 PM | message detail

From: Iamthekuzalol | #241
RE4 > FFX

forget that.

RE4 > Melee!!!
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/30/2010 9:02:14 PM | message detail

RE4 winning the entire contest would be okay.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 94/104 Today's Matches: RE4 & TWEWY

Hochimihnister | Posted 11/30/2010 9:02:22 PM | message detail

Falling hard now. Won't be above 70% which isn't spectacular considering how badly GTA games have done

KamikazePotato | Posted 11/30/2010 9:02:28 PM | message detail

RE4 winning the contest? Let's do this.

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DFF

TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/30/2010 9:02:47 PM | message detail

This is all a board vote right?

Right?
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