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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 959

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transients | Posted 11/30/2010 1:09:37 PM | message detail
so, does Fire Emblem beat Persona 3?
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NoDicePwn | Posted 11/30/2010 1:13:40 PM | message detail
I think it would, easily. Playrate for Persona 3 is too low to keep up with a series with a Nintendo backing like Fire Emblem
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Xuxon | Posted 11/30/2010 1:18:47 PM | message detail
P3 would beat FE, and FF9 is still going to beat KOTOR easily.
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TRE Public Account | Posted 11/30/2010 1:19:19 PM | message detail
I think the fact that P4 is a 4 seed and P3 is a 7 seed is telling of the fanbase heirarchy

Board 8 heavily backed Persona 4 in the nominations which inflated the seed in received (although Persona 3 also got a fair amount of support). It probably still gets a higher seed but it would normally be closer than 4 and 7.
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swordz9 | Posted 11/30/2010 1:20:03 PM | message detail
Persona 4 made the last game contest too while Persona 3 didn't even show up at all.
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NoDicePwn | Posted 11/30/2010 1:21:29 PM | message detail

From: Xuxon | #103
P3 would beat FE, and FF9 is still going to beat KOTOR easily.


A massively SFF'd Fire Emblem with Smash and WW in the same poll would only lose 51-49 to Persona 4, and Persona 4 > Persona 3
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TRE Public Account | Posted 11/30/2010 1:23:28 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3469

Massively SFF'd FE got killed by Diagaea. I don't think it would get close to 49% on Persona 4.
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Dr_Football punted my bracket across the field.
Congrats to Dr_Football for winning the Character Battle 8 Guru Contest!
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/30/2010 1:24:29 PM | message detail

From: TRE Public Account | #107
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3469

Massively SFF'd FE got killed by Diagaea. I don't think it would get close to 49% on Persona 4.


Fire Emblem (2009g) VS Persona 4 (2009g)

Fire Emblem has a strength of 15.11.
Persona 4 has a strength of 15.70.

Persona 4 wins with 51.88% of the vote!
A win of 4,489 with 119,457 total votes cast.


Okay you're right, close to 48%. Still enough to easily make FE win if it wasn't in the worst SFF situation possible, though
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Xuxon | Posted 11/30/2010 1:25:01 PM | message detail
that only tells me how flawed the 4-way x-stat calculations are.
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NoDicePwn | Posted 11/30/2010 1:28:01 PM | message detail
I think it comes down to that people forget how weak Persona games are just cuz they got good draws this contest. They're still super niche jrpgs that would struggle with any niche jrpg in this contest. At least Fire Emblem has a Smash presence that let more people know about it.
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swordz9 | Posted 11/30/2010 1:39:37 PM | message detail
I think I would definitely take both Persona games to beat Disgaea. That game is so pathetically weak I don't think it could beat any other RPG 1v1.
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LOLContests | Posted 11/30/2010 2:02:35 PM | message detail
I think it comes down to that people forget how weak Persona games are just cuz they got good draws this contest. They're still super niche jrpgs that would struggle with any niche jrpg in this contest. At least Fire Emblem has a Smash presence that let more people know about it.

Well, based on today's performance, they're clearly not. Is Board 8 just really biased towards Persona 4 or something, since I've barely heard P3 talked about, but P4 gets brought up all the time?
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/30/2010 2:12:01 PM | message detail
Persona 3 would beat Fire Emblem. Jury's out on Persona 4.

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charmander6000 | Posted 11/30/2010 2:20:43 PM | message detail
Based on today's performance Fire Emblem should take Persona 3.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 90/100 Today's Matches: SW: KotOR & FFIX
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/30/2010 2:21:26 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4112
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4106

Braid vs. Tony Hawk, who ya got?

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DFF
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/30/2010 2:23:45 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
swordz9 | Posted 11/30/2010 2:31:28 PM | message detail
Should I just assume that this match is going to stay 69~ to 30~? It doesn't look like the match is going to change much at all since it hasn't changed in a couple hours now. As for Braid vs Tony Hawk, I think I would take Braid I guess. Neither seem particularly strong, but I think Braid's performance looks a little bit better. It'd probably be a pretty close match since I don't want to believe Tony Hawk is as weak as No Mercy.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/30/2010 2:39:17 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #115
Braid vs. Tony Hawk, who ya got?


Gimme some Rodney Mullen street action.

Siding with Albion here. No way do I take either Persona to beat Fire Emblem. FE is a much more recognizable series that has gotten legit Nintendo backing over the years. I know I'd take FE to beat Civilization with more than 52%.
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WhiteLens | Posted 11/30/2010 2:39:20 PM | message detail

From: LOLContests | #112
since I've barely heard P3 talked about


Did you miss all those P3P topics during the summer?
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transients | Posted 11/30/2010 2:41:29 PM | message detail
KOTOR could have a respectable performance vs. FF9 then. if FF9 is pure franchise power, KOTOR could put a big scare on FF9, especially since it's a day match. FF9 has a CT-esque day vote, as evidenced by losing it to Phoenix Wright and Persona.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/30/2010 2:42:47 PM | message detail
KOTOR probably gets 45% on FF9, but it's virtually impossible for it to actually win.

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charmander6000 | Posted 11/30/2010 2:46:14 PM | message detail
I never expected FFIX to blow KotOR away anyway.
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swordz9 | Posted 11/30/2010 2:47:58 PM | message detail
I probably would take Fire Emblem to beat the Persona games, but only due to getting reps in Smash Bros. I think without that Fire Emblem wouldn't be quite as strong. I'd still take both over Disgaea and probably TWEWY and maybe even Valkyria Chronciles, but that would be about it unless some other super weak JRPG makes it into a contest.
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transients | Posted 11/30/2010 2:48:05 PM | message detail
P3 and P4 probably aren't too far apart. P3 came first and has more releases, P4 is more loved. I'd pick P4 over P3 but it's like taking San Andreas over Vice City or something. they're not far apart.
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WhiteLens | Posted 11/30/2010 2:59:33 PM | message detail
Well you could think that P4 might have a higher player-rate due to it constantly labeled as "the last great PS2 game" by word of mouth, so anyone still using their PS2 and are an RPG fan probably went in on it without trying P3.

And I really don't think that P3P is bringing in much more votes for P3 because of lol PSP.
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transients | Posted 11/30/2010 3:04:22 PM | message detail
P3P is flat out better as a game though. that matters.
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Articuno2001 | Posted 11/30/2010 3:12:34 PM | message detail

From: transients | #126
P3P is flat out better as a game though. that matters.


this
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2010 Game of the Decade Contest - 87/100 points - Today: Star Wars: KotoR / Final Fantasy IX
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swordz9 | Posted 11/30/2010 3:14:39 PM | message detail
P3P is a really great game, but I don't think it sold as well as the original or FES version. It makes sense though since not many are going to buy the game 3 times even if things are changed. I agree that they aren't far apart in strength though. If Persona 3 and Persona 4 faced each other I wouldn't be surprised if the match was really close. Persona 4 might be preferred enough to get 53-55% on Persona 3, but I don't think it would 60-40 it.
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transients | Posted 11/30/2010 3:15:45 PM | message detail
oh P4 would probably rock P3. but indirectly, it wouldn't really be much different.
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xyzzy
charmander6000 | Posted 11/30/2010 3:18:06 PM | message detail
P3P sold like 80k in North America, that's about 1/3 of each PS2 version.
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GotD Bracket: 90/100 Today's Matches: SW: KotOR & FFIX
swordz9 | Posted 11/30/2010 3:18:21 PM | message detail
Yeah, they're probably in the same strength tier. How would Persona 3 and 4 rank as far as contest strength goes anyways? I imagine they're at least odder fodder level, but that's probably it. I know they definitely are midcard material.
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swordz9 | Posted 11/30/2010 3:19:08 PM | message detail
*above fodder. I have no clue how I made a typo like that.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/30/2010 3:20:24 PM | message detail
I know they definitely are midcard material.

How strong do you think FFIX is?
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GotD Bracket: 90/100 Today's Matches: SW: KotOR & FFIX
swordz9 | Posted 11/30/2010 3:21:38 PM | message detail
That was supposed to be aren't. It seems I made more than one typo in that post.
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transients | Posted 11/30/2010 3:22:38 PM | message detail
no idea what 'midcard' means in this context, but I think Persona is decent. not super strong, but as far as cult RPGs go it's up there, probably second to Symphonia.
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xyzzy
transients | Posted 11/30/2010 3:22:53 PM | message detail
I mean, I can't see it being much worse than Legend of Dragoon.
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swordz9 | Posted 11/30/2010 3:25:51 PM | message detail
I only used 'midcard' since that seemed to be the term I saw most people calling games that were relatively strong, but not quite top tier strong. I might have misused it since I don't know much about the contest terminology I've seen used here.
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transients | Posted 11/30/2010 3:28:26 PM | message detail
it's a term that means something with characters, but games have never had a true definition. with this contest being the first legit game contest ever, we can set a 'fodder line' and work from there. I'm thinking a fodder line would be like.. well, Persona actually. Dead Rising or TWEWY would be about the same level.
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transients | Posted 11/30/2010 3:30:12 PM | message detail
although it's kind of skewed because we're missing 15 of our 25 strongest games or so.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/30/2010 3:33:04 PM | message detail
Legend of Dragoon would win over Persona 3/4, let's not get crazy they're both fodder.
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GotD Bracket: 90/100 Today's Matches: SW: KotOR & FFIX
transients | Posted 11/30/2010 3:33:46 PM | message detail
you're sure about that? I would take Persona 3/4 to beat Battlefront easily - I mean, unless you think Bioshock beats FF9.
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xyzzy
transients | Posted 11/30/2010 3:34:12 PM | message detail
which I guess is possible given what happened to KH2.
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xyzzy
swordz9 | Posted 11/30/2010 3:35:34 PM | message detail
I see. I thought those terms were used for the games as well. I agree with your statement though. It sounds like 4way contests are considered laughable so now that everybody likes this one it's a good chance to see what strength the games have.
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transients | Posted 11/30/2010 3:36:35 PM | message detail
it's more that games were split up by generation and so nobody really had any idea what was going on. red sox and I have waged some opinion wars over the years about old vs. new thanks to that stupid setup.
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/30/2010 3:42:27 PM | message detail
I'd go with:

Top Tier = OOT and FFVII
Elite = #3-15
Near-Elite = #15-25
Mid-Card = Below that

With characters, mid-card is a really big range because it's really 3 ranges, from strong midcarders to low midcarders. With games, I dunno, I have no idea where to set the fodder line. I wanted to use Tales of Symphonia as the weakest non-fodder game, but that makes too many games fodder. Maybe something like Street Fighter 4.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
red sox 777 | Posted 11/30/2010 3:45:55 PM | message detail
Although SF4 probably doesn't work either, because that implies that only 4 non-fodder games were released in all of 2009 through the 2009 GOTY. Ah......20% on OOT I guess, but I dunno what games are around that strength.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
transients | Posted 11/30/2010 3:48:51 PM | message detail
last year's contest suggests that Persona is indeed the fodder line if you use SF4. I don't think that's unreasonable either - there are probably at least 60 games that would beat SF4, enough so that you could make an entire bracket and have SF4 be the weakest game there.

I can't wait to see our x-stats. those will be interesting.
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xyzzy
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/30/2010 3:58:54 PM | message detail
I'd go with:

Top Tier = OOT and FFVII
Elite = #3-15
Near-Elite = #15-25
Mid-Card = Below that


Why not try to make up a Noble Nine for games?

it's a term that means something with characters, but games have never had a true definition. with this contest being the first legit game contest ever, we can set a 'fodder line' and work from there. I'm thinking a fodder line would be like.. well, Persona actually. Dead Rising or TWEWY would be about the same level.

Besides trying to set a fodder line for games, I think we should also try to work on a Noble Nine for games too.

If you had to ask me what games I think would be in the Noble Nine, here's what I would propose:

OoT, FFVII, FFX, LTTP, Melee, Brawl, SMW, SMB3, and Pokemon RBY (in no specific order).

Other games close to the Noble Nine level would include MGS, SM64, Chrono Trigger, The Legend of Zelda, Twilight Princess, and RE4.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/30/2010 4:03:30 PM | message detail
Couple of new pics:

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charmander6000 | Posted 11/30/2010 4:04:55 PM | message detail
I usually use 20% on the strongest thing as the fodder line so using what FFX got on OoT in round 5 the fodder line would be anything that can't break 29% on FFX.

Basically if you can't defeat Borderlands you're fodder. At least that's what I have for now.
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GotD Bracket: 90/100 Today's Matches: SW: KotOR & FFIX