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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 957

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695924 | Posted 11/28/2010 9:07:33 PM | message detail
Massive anti FFX vote.
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lol opinions
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VaultBoyAlbion | Posted 11/28/2010 9:07:58 PM | message detail
I mean Borderlands is a popular console RPG from this gen. Its got the requirements to have some strength.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/28/2010 9:08:24 PM | message detail
Borderlands was on par with Dragon Age in that GOTY poll anyway. That means it could at least be looking about as good as Twilight Princess.

Which... I guess could be disappointing depending on your expectations.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/28/2010 9:09:30 PM | message detail
Luster Soldier gets the match right again while we lose a -5 bracket and a few -6s, -7s and -8s.

The bracket stats for the 90 point brackets will look very weird if I get the next match wrong. I ended up picking San Andreas > Golden Sun, a match that I could get wrong. If I somehow get that one right, I will definitely be wrong when it comes to WoW > Paper Mario.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/28/2010 9:09:39 PM | message detail
FFX is fine.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 88/96 Today's Matches: FFX & GTA: SA
charmander6000 | Posted 11/28/2010 9:10:25 PM | message detail
Under 70% now.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 88/96 Today's Matches: FFX & GTA: SA
TheCodeisBosco | Posted 11/28/2010 9:10:26 PM | message detail
Why did you expect better from RSE? DPP did about the same in BGE2, and the general consensus was that DPP >= RSE. GTA4 was misleading.

The way GBA games had been looking all contest, I really thought RSE had a legit shot at impressing. At the very least, I definitely didn't expect it to barely crack 40%.

Am I the only one who doesn't think this is that bad? I can buy Borderlands = Morrowind

I don't think it's bad either - in fact, I was really shocked so many people were taking FFX > 72% in the Spread Betting topic.

I'm just looking for an excuse to hype up RE4 > FFX!

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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/28/2010 9:10:26 PM | message detail
FFX what are you doing

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DFF
VaultBoyAlbion | Posted 11/28/2010 9:10:31 PM | message detail
dat ffx board vote
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695924 | Posted 11/28/2010 9:10:39 PM | message detail
FFX gonna get killed by FFIX
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lol opinions
HaRRicH | Posted 11/28/2010 9:10:54 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #094
DPP was expected to get 45% and while I'm not surprised a few thought that the two were equal.


My bad, 45% it is. Still though, with the general consensus of RSE being the weakest Pokemon-game, it's not a shocker. Throw in that many people want to believe SMG looks stronger this year too, if you like.
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transience | Posted 11/28/2010 9:10:55 PM | message detail
I think we need to start seriously discussing FFX vs. RE4.
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xyzzy
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/28/2010 9:11:07 PM | message detail
FFX recovered in the last two minutes, at least. It looked bad when Borderlands already hit 30% three minutes into the thing. I figure anything below the 70% here is bad for FFX. Borderlands looked like a North America-centric game, it's a 2009 game, and 55% on Tales of Vesperia really shouldn't put you that comfortably above fodder.

Kingdom Hearts just doubled the 2009 GotY. If FFX can't at least get 70% on the fifth or sixth (or seventh or eighth) strongest 2009 game, then we can't even say it look as strong as KH directly. We really can't.

Update #2 in, and ouch... FFX no bueno.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/28/2010 9:11:25 PM | message detail
Yeah I know it's never going to happen in a million years, but FF9's R1 match looks more impressive than both of FFX's matches so far. That's...pretty bad!

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DFF
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/28/2010 9:12:11 PM | message detail
This is a night match, too. This could have gotten really ugly in a day match.

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DFF
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/28/2010 9:12:11 PM | message detail
So...

Resident Evil 4 vs. GSC, who ya got?
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VaultBoyAlbion | Posted 11/28/2010 9:12:41 PM | message detail

From: WarThaNemesis2 | #116
So...

Resident Evil 4 vs. GSC, who ya got?


Depends on time. RE4 for night match, GSC for day match
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/28/2010 9:12:43 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4149&region=EUR

ahahahahaha
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/28/2010 9:12:56 PM | message detail
FFX will probably go up overnight. Can't be too harsh on a Final Fantasy game 10 minutes in.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
FFDragon | Posted 11/28/2010 9:13:25 PM | message detail

From: WarThaNemesis2 | Posted: 11/29/2010 12:12:43 AM | #118
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4149&region=EUR

ahahahahaha


Okay this is hilarious.

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transience | Posted 11/28/2010 9:13:53 PM | message detail
if there's any game that's gotten stronger since 2009, it's Borderlands. that game has gotten some of the best post-release support of any game that's not made by Valve.

I won't write FFX off until it gets a bad result against a real opponent, but so far it is one of the big disappointments of this contest. if I were to rank the big games so far:

1. Melee
2. Brawl
3. Twilight Princess
4. RE4
5. FFX
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xyzzy
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/28/2010 9:14:11 PM | message detail
The fact that FFX is getting night matches and still underperforming is bad. FFX is supposed to be one of the night kings.

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DFF
kinsho3 | Posted 11/28/2010 9:16:03 PM | message detail

From: transience | #082
I think we need to start seriously discussing FFX vs. RE4.


This match should be more discussed. The night vote may be the only thing to save FFX here.
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VaultBoyAlbion | Posted 11/28/2010 9:16:11 PM | message detail
Was Borderlands not released in Europe or something?
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 11/28/2010 9:16:17 PM | message detail
isn't batman a night king?

he is the night
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/28/2010 9:16:32 PM | message detail
More of those, please.

Man, even if FFX rebounds and looks alright here, no one would take Borderlands to get anywhere near Vice City. If RE4 goes out there and lights things up, there might be a buzz around here.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/28/2010 9:17:03 PM | message detail
Updated Top 10

Top 10 Biggest Day Vote Gaps
1. Super Smash Bros. Brawl – 44460 vs. Mario Kart DS – 8936 (R1) – 35524
2. LoZ: Twilight Princess – 47034 vs. Shenmue – 12220 (R1) – 34814
3. Kingdom Hearts – 43966 vs. Castlevania: DoS – 13206 (R1) – 30760
4. Final Fantasy IX – 41701 vs. Phoenix Wright: AA T&T – 13760 (R1) – 27941
5. Super Smash Bros. Brawl – 38647 vs. Valkyria Chronicles – 11912 (R2) – 26735
6. Pokemon GSC – 37153 vs. Advance Wars – 13547 (R1) – 23606
7. Half-Life 2 – 35766 vs. Left 4 Dead 2 – 12254 (R1) – 23512
8. Diablo II – 34981 vs. Eternal Darkness – 12094 (R1) – 22887
9. Okami – 35156 vs. No More Heroes – 14074 (R1) – 21082
10. Kingdom Hearts – 41363 vs. CoD: Modern Warfare 2 – 21018 (R2) – 20345

Top 10 Most Popular Night Polls
1. Kingdom Hearts II vs. Bioshock (R2) – 43262

2. Star Wars: KotOR vs. Devil May Cry (R1) – 43163
3. Halo 3 vs. Super Mario Sunshine (R1) – 42791
4. Final Fantasy X vs. Viewtiful Joe (R1) – 42049
5. Metroid Prime vs. Star Ocean 3 (R1) – 41441
6. Fallout 3 vs. inFamous (R1) – 41239
7. LoZ: Majora’s Mask vs. Wii Sports (R1) – 41210
8. Super Smash Bros. Melee vs. Morrowind (R2) – 41113
9. Uncharted 2 vs. Legend of Dragoon (R1) – 40826
10. Super Smash Bros. Melee vs. Guitar Hero II (R1) – 40692

Top 10 Most Popular Day Polls
1. Kingdom Hearts vs. CoD: Modern Warfare 2 (R2) – 62381

2. Team Fortress 2 vs. Fable (R1) – 61749
3. LoZ: Twilight Princess vs. Shenmue (R1) – 59254
4. Pokemon RSE vs. Grand Theft Auto IV (R1) – 59134
5. Kingdom Hearts II vs. Halo 2 (R1) – 58733
6. Kingdom Hearts vs. Castlevania: DoS (R1) – 57172
7. Final Fantasy IX vs. Phoenix Wright: AA T&T (R1) – 55461
8. Street Fighter IV vs. Sonic Adventure 2 (R1) – 54154
9. Super Smash Bros. Brawl vs. Mario Kart DS (R1) – 53396
10. LoZ: Twilight Princess vs. Dragon Age (R2) – 52764

Top 10 Highest Individual Day Votes
1. LoZ: Twilight Princess (R1) – 47034
2. Super Smash Bros. Brawl (R1) – 44460
3. Kingdom Hearts (R1) – 43966
4. Final Fantasy IX (R1) – 41701
5. Kingdom Hearts (R2) – 41363
6. Super Smash Bros. Brawl (R2) – 38647
7. Kingdom Hearts II (R1) – 37478
8. Pokemon GSC (R1) – 37153
9. LoZ: Twilight Princess (R2) – 36341
10. Shadow of the Colossus (R1) – 36278

Top 10 Most Impressive Night Losers
1. Super Mario Sunshine (R1) – 20315
2. Tales of Symphonia (R2) – 19489
3. Resident Evil 5 (R1) – 19077
4. Bioshock (R2) – 18918
5. Demon’s Souls (R1) – 18134
6. Devil May Cry (R1) – 18107
7. The World Ends With You (R1) – 17680
8. Legend of Dragoon (R1) – 17393
9. Dissidia (R1) – 17027
10. Street Fighter IV (R2) – 16735

Top 10 Hardest Matches to Predict
1. Pokemon RSE vs. Grand Theft Auto IV (R1) – 26.23%
2. Kingdom Hearts II vs. Bioshock (R2) – 29.25%
3. Paper Mario: TTYD vs. Gears of War (R1) – 29.33%
4. Morrowind vs. Warcraft III (R1) – 32.76%
5. Okami vs. Mega Man 9 (R2) – 36.41%
6. Deus Ex vs. Rock Band 2 (R1) – 36.61%
7. Kingdom Hearts vs. CoD: Modern Warfare 2 (R2) – 38.31%
8. Halo: Combat Evolved vs. Halo 3 (R2) – 41.28%
9. Batman: AA vs. Team Fortress 2 (R2) – 41.97%
10. Persona 3 vs. Civilization IV (R1) – 42.85%

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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 88/96 Today's Matches: FFX & GTA: SA
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/28/2010 9:17:34 PM | message detail
FFX is going to destroy overnight.

The problem though is that even if you assume night Borderlands = night Morrowind, it is merely matching Melee while both are in the timeframe that FFX needs to win big in order to win the contest.
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Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 11/28/2010 9:18:35 PM | message detail
The bracket stats for the 90 point brackets will look very weird if I get the next match wrong. I ended up picking San Andreas > Golden Sun, a match that I could get wrong. If I somehow get that one right, I will definitely be wrong when it comes to WoW > Paper Mario.

Regardless of if you get the match right or wrong, your brackets screw up the stats. When you get the match right, the scoring tiers your brackets are in overperform significantly.
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transience | Posted 11/28/2010 9:20:29 PM | message detail
okay, back to Golden Sun.

I've always gotten the sense that GTA overperforms in losses ever since the Melee match. anyone else feel this way?
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xyzzy
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/28/2010 9:20:59 PM | message detail
Luster, how did you manage to finish your brackets in such closely-timed clusters? Did you predict the first 126 matches in each one BEFORE going back and rapid-predicting the final match in each? If so, hat's off. That's very clever.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/28/2010 9:21:13 PM | message detail
I argued that like 3 or 4 topics ago!
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transience | Posted 11/28/2010 9:22:25 PM | message detail
I wish I knew how many real brackets I was competing with in the battle challenge. banking is a lot easier when you know your competition! lusterrrrr
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xyzzy
charmander6000 | Posted 11/28/2010 9:23:10 PM | message detail
Match LXXXII: (5) Golden Sun vs. (4) Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas

Last Round

Golden Sun – 68.24%
Ratchet & Clank: Up Your Arsenal – 31.76%

Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas – 65.45%
Dead Space – 34.55%

Analysis

This was one of the most fought out second round match last round then after their matches finished almost everyone stopped talking about it until roughly 12 hours ago. Not because the first round match made it obvious which game was going to win, but because everyone was at a stalemate which turned almost into a ceasefire. It’s pretty weird since that never use to stop us from arguing for months. While I acknowledge that Golden Sun isn’t as weak as I once thought I still don’t think it’s going to win over San Andreas.

The main thing that made Golden Sun impressive was its performance against Ratchet & Clank last round and while few people were saying it after the fact we should have known that the games would be weak in a contest setting. For one thing Ratchet & Clank games have performed badly in pretty much every single poll on GameFAQs. Also when you think about it Ratchet has like 10 games to pull from yet it was only just recently that he became high fodder. I know comparing games to characters is a bad idea, but any character from a series with that many games tends to have strength on GameFAQs unless their games aren’t that popular.

A few people were disappointed with San Andreas’ performance against Dead Space last round and while I was in the same boat you have to remember that we have almost nothing on Dead Space. Just because the board hasn’t played the game doesn’t mean the entrant is weak, just take a look at the way people treated Claptrap last contest and it’s not like San Andreas performed that badly, most people expected high 60s and it got mid 60s, not exactly the worst underperformance.

One thing that some people think will be a difference maker is the release of Golden Sun: Dark Dawn on the day of the match which is supposes to give Golden Sun a large boost. The size of the boost has been debatable since the only two times this has happened was to Charizard last contest and Mario in 2002. For Charizard many people believed that he would have still defeated Bowser, sure he struggled to defeat Kratos by a large margin, but you have to remember that Kratos was getting his own boost from the release of God of War III.

Last round I calculated that Cloud would have won over Mario with 58% had it not been for the boost. Some people disagreed saying that it was too high, but both Alucard and Tails suggested that was the case plus Mario looked pretty bad in the first two rounds so I’m not surprised. Of course going from 42% to 50% was not just Super Mario Sunshine; Mario had one of the biggest Nintendo fan sites helping him out plus some shady business going on at the end. We also have to remember that Golden Sun: Dark Dawn is nowhere near as hyped as Super Mario Sunshine or even Pokemon HG/SS, you can pull that poll from a year ago, but that was a year ago and things have changed.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/28/2010 9:23:16 PM | message detail

From: transience | #130
okay, back to Golden Sun.

I've always gotten the sense that GTA overperforms in losses ever since the Melee match. anyone else feel this way?


Yes.

Also, RE4 could seriously beat FFX. This is a terrible performance.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/28/2010 9:23:22 PM | message detail
The main reason why people think a same day game release match helps an entrant is that it brings an influx of fans to the site that wouldn’t normally come to the site. So it means little that people that come to GameFAQs a lot are happy about the game and I don’t see San Andreas fans flipping to Golden Sun since truthfully I don’t see the games having much overlap we need people who either never come or rarely come to GameFAQs, which would mean an increase in vote totals. Taking a look at Charizard matches and taking the average of his day matches against Kratos, L-Block and Mario we have 80356 votes, his match against Bowser had an extra 3168 votes, about a 4% increase which probably didn’t all go to Charizard. With Golden Sun: Dark Dawn not being as hyped as HG/SS I don’t think you should expect the release of the game to sway the match unless you already thought it was going to be a 50/50 affair before the release of the game.

Golden Sun’s strength has been the debate and I’ve seen people arguing it to be at many different places. Personally I’m having trouble seeing it being stronger than a mainline Pokemon game, it was nowhere near as big of any of the Pokemon releases and even for RSE while people may have hated Pokemon when it was released it was mostly for show as the game still had decent popularity. Pokemon RSE barely defeating the weakest Grand Theft Auto game in the contest doesn’t help Golden Sun’s chances. What’s worse is that Super Mario Galaxy almost got 60% on Pokemon RSE last round which suggests that Grand Theft Auto IV is even weaker compare to last year meaning the gap between San Andreas and Grand Theft Auto IV is even larger. Based on last year Golden Sun would have to be closer to, if not beating Pokemon DPP than RSE to have a chance at winning, which again I think is asking a bit too much for Golden Sun.

Performances like what Grand Theft Auto III did to Half-Life 2 and even last year’s matches show that the series is not weak on GameFAQs. I know people don’t think highly of the series because it had a couple of bad performances, but after awhile you have to draw the line somewhere. Even if San Andreas loses here it won’t be because the game is weak, it’ll be because Golden Sun is strong, but I just don’t see that happening.

charmander6000’s Bracket: GTA: San Andreas > Golden Sun

charmander6000’s Prediction: GTA: San Andreas wins, 57.26% - 42.74%


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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 88/96 Today's Matches: FFX & GTA: SA
charmander6000 | Posted 11/28/2010 9:24:19 PM | message detail
My analysis, with a cameo from Ulti
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 88/96 Today's Matches: FFX & GTA: SA
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/28/2010 9:24:20 PM | message detail
dear lord Char. Just call it "RacistFAQs" call it a day.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/28/2010 9:25:17 PM | message detail

From: transience | #130
okay, back to Golden Sun.

I've always gotten the sense that GTA overperforms in losses ever since the Melee match. anyone else feel this way?


GTA is probably like Master Chief. It does well in defeat (usually) but is incapable of blowing anything out. This also means it has a lot of trouble actually winning close matches.

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DFF
charmander6000 | Posted 11/28/2010 9:25:45 PM | message detail
dear lord Char. Just call it "RacistFAQs" call it a day.

I had almost nothing to do today and not arguing it for weeks on end just added to the energy.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 88/96 Today's Matches: FFX & GTA: SA
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/28/2010 9:30:30 PM | message detail
Actually, let's look at GTA: a history of close matches.

Close matches GTA has won:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1351
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2084

Close matches GTA has lost:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2067
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3470

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1648

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3246
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4094

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3468

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2434


Tommy is clutch. The rest of the series, not so much.

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DFF
transience | Posted 11/28/2010 9:31:26 PM | message detail
Tommy isn't clutch. those are the two characters in the world that are less clutch than GTA.

well, three if you include Magus.
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xyzzy
transience | Posted 11/28/2010 9:32:08 PM | message detail
another way to put it: would I take Oblivion, Symphonia and God of War over Golden Sun?

yes, yes, yes.
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xyzzy
Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 11/28/2010 9:33:00 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3246

Niko Bellic beat Kefka in a close match there as well. But it's Kefka. >_>
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/28/2010 9:33:46 PM | message detail
He also lost to Marth <_<
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/28/2010 9:34:53 PM | message detail
I wouldn't take Symphonia or God of War over Golden Sun.

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DFF
transience | Posted 11/28/2010 9:35:39 PM | message detail
you have a much higher opinion of Golden Sun than I do. yikes.
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xyzzy
transience | Posted 11/28/2010 9:35:54 PM | message detail
(and I've got Golden Sun winning!)
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xyzzy
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/28/2010 9:36:39 PM | message detail
transience | Posted 11/29/2010 12:32:08 AM | message detail
another way to put it: would I take Oblivion, Symphonia and God of War over Golden Sun?

yes, yes, yes.


That's a good way of thinking about that match. I used something similar to that for SFIV/Uncharted 2 (which some people thought SFIV could win) in which I asked "Would you take Sonic Adventure 2 over Uncharted 2?". That one was an obvious yes for me.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/28/2010 9:36:39 PM | message detail
He would have to at least consider it considering he has GS > SA.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 88/96 Today's Matches: FFX & GTA: SA