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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 955

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charmander6000 | Posted 11/25/2010 9:29:23 PM | message detail
Does America get Friday off too?
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GotD Bracket: 76/84 Today's Matches: Pokemon DPP & SSBB
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JaKyL25 | Posted 11/25/2010 9:30:49 PM | message detail
It's not a government holiday, and if you work in retail you're for sure working, but schools have the day off and so do a lot of other jobs.
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NoDicePwn | Posted 11/25/2010 9:30:51 PM | message detail
Does America get Friday off too?

Kids do, at least.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/25/2010 9:31:18 PM | message detail
College students too ^_^
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swordz9 | Posted 11/25/2010 9:32:20 PM | message detail
I think most students get Friday off, but probably little to no workers do.
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TheCodeisBosco | Posted 11/25/2010 9:33:15 PM | message detail
Man, I guess Metroid Fusion was way stronger than expected after all.

GBAFEAR strikes again!

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ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/25/2010 9:33:54 PM | message detail
Aw yeah DPP doin' work.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/25/2010 9:35:49 PM | message detail
Fusion > FE? Good stuff, GameFAQs
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Greyfeld | Posted 11/25/2010 9:37:43 PM | message detail
What's funny is that people were arguing with me about Fusion saying that there's NO WAY it could have any semblance of strength, and that it just HAD to be DPP sucking it up.
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WhiteLens | Posted 11/25/2010 9:40:38 PM | message detail
Only retail workers don't get the day off tomorrow and it really sucks to be them.

Oh man, if only there was some way to prove Golden Sun > Metroid Fusion.
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Haste_2 | Posted 11/25/2010 9:44:10 PM | message detail
Wasn't it obvious Fusion was stronger than FE? At least, once we found that it got 45% on DPP, that is. We shouldn't have been fooled by No Mercy... it will probably get last in the x-stats.

Random poll: Metroid Fusion vs. Golden Sun. Which do you like more, and which would win in GFAQs contest poll?

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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/25/2010 9:45:33 PM | message detail
Does America get Friday off too?

Back when I was in high school, I got Friday off. College students should definitely get Friday off, though. So there will probably be a diluted ASV in today's day match. Not to mention today is Black Friday, so many working class people might take today off in order to go shopping.

Also, on another note, I think there were signs of an ASV in yesterday's match, but it was very diluted. I did a comparison of the hourly vote totals for yesterday's match against the Oblivion/SoulCalibur II match (which was on a Saturday). I chose the Oblivion match for comparison as the final vote total on that match was 47843, compared to 47898 on CoD4/PD.

Time | CoD4/PD | Oblivion/SCII
1:00 | 6746 | 6680
2:00 | 5703 | 5901
3:00 | 5009 | 5137
4:00 | 4340 | 4587
5:00 | 4136 | 4307
6:00 | 3740 | 3907
7:00 | 3556 | 3579
8:00 | 3120 | 3244
9:00 | 3124 | 2971
10:00 | 2925 | 2798
11:00 | 2910 | 2438
12:00 | 2589 | 2294

The noticeable signs of an ASV can be seen mainly in the 4:00-5:00 PM hour and also the 6:00-7:00 PM hour. The 8:00-9:00 PM and 10:00-11:00 PM hours were also pretty weird as well. I don't think I could blame heavy rallying as the cause for the vote total intake for the 8:00-9:00 PM and the 10:00-10:00 PM hours.
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creativename | Posted 11/25/2010 9:49:08 PM | message detail
Nice showing by DPP here. And since this FE isn't a portable, I doubt there's significant SFF, this is probably just legit strength. Too bad it's going to get worked by Brawl or it could've made some noise.

Just imagine if DPP had been in that lousy North Division. Could've been the 2nd strongest game there. Halo vs. DPP: who ya got?

Galaxy is facing RSE in a night match, although it's Saturday. In the 4-way match, Galaxy got 56.16% over the first 12 hours against DPP, and finished with 54.89% on it. So the night match favors Galaxy but the weekend will make it a bit more balanced. The Oracle predictions seem to be high 50's, low 60's, so people obviously are expecting DPP>RSE.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 11/25/2010 9:55:02 PM | message detail
Completely random, but I'd like to see Melee 60-40 Brawl now just to be in complete defiance of the critics. Melee is the deeper, more fun, more influential game, right guys?

Also I take back what I said earlier. GameCube > Wii for life when it comes to system libraries.
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WhiteLens | Posted 11/25/2010 9:57:52 PM | message detail

From: LinkMarioSamus | #064
I'd like to see Melee 60-40 Brawl now just to be in complete defiance of the critics.


Shouldn't that be more Brawl 60/40 Melee?

You don't know what you're saying anymore do you?
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creativename | Posted 11/25/2010 10:01:10 PM | message detail
Wasn't it obvious Fusion was stronger than FE? At least, once we found that it got 45% on DPP, that is. We shouldn't have been fooled by No Mercy... it will probably get last in the x-stats.

Random poll: Metroid Fusion vs. Golden Sun. Which do you like more, and which would win in GFAQs contest poll?


People were predicting right around 60% in the Oracle, so yes, almost everyone assumed Fusion>FE.

I would favor Golden Sun to beat Fusion. Perhaps I'm underestimating Fusion, but Golden Sun has always seemed pretty popular at GameFAQs and has a number of impressive poll showings. I'm pretty sure most would pick GS there, although an upset would be possible.
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Haste_2 | Posted 11/25/2010 10:02:44 PM | message detail
I honestly wonder if DPP is even stronger than RSE, though. I mean, it's true that most consider DPP better, but... if RBY and GSC benefit from the nostalgia factor, what if RSE has some, as well?

If Galaxy gets 60% on RSE, GTA is so weak compared to its other members of the series. When using Brawl's match against CoD4 and GTA4 in the same poll, it suggests a 60.8% victory for CoD4. When comparing Call of Duty 4's expected 55.7% on Galaxy (change it to maybe 51% due to DPP's leeching) that would suggest Mario Galaxy gets about 60% on Grand Theft Auto IV. That's a comfortable victory, enough that Galaxy should be safe even if it has dropped since the last contest.

But there's the other way to measure. GTA could have been underrated in that match, since the previous round with only one other strong competitor, SSBB (the others being SFIV and Persona 4) suggests GTA4 gets 35.77% on SSBB. In Round 2, Call of Duty 4 is expected 38.24% on a leeched Brawl. This perspective suggests that Mario Galaxy (or Call of Duty) might struggle to even beat GTA4 in a normal poll.

Of course, GTA4 also seems like just the type of game to fall off the map since 18 months ago.

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gearofages | Posted 11/25/2010 10:07:05 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=771
Greyfeld | Posted 11/25/2010 10:11:06 PM | message detail
PLEASE stop linking 9 year old polls. They're completely irrelevant.
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gearofages | Posted 11/25/2010 10:16:16 PM | message detail
Come on, Crystal got beat by Dragon Warrior III NINE YEARS AGO...and it is suppose to be a semi-finalist now? I am not seeing it. I have no idea where you guys are getting the stats to support GSC, at all.
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 11/25/2010 10:19:03 PM | message detail
Those Polls also said Yoshi is more popular than Mario, and FF6 is the most popular FF. I think there was one where Knux beat SNOIC

Theyve been worthless for contests since the get go.
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xp1337 | Posted 11/25/2010 10:24:09 PM | message detail
Come on, Crystal got beat by Dragon Warrior III NINE YEARS AGO...and it is suppose to be a semi-finalist now? I am not seeing it. I have no idea where you guys are getting the stats to support GSC, at all.

Man, if Oracle of Ages/Seasons can do that to GSC in that poll, it must be worth something absurd like 80-90% on MM based on the last contest. Look out OoT, not only are you no longer the strongest game on the site, you're not even the strongest Zelda!
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/25/2010 10:29:58 PM | message detail
Come on, Crystal got beat by Dragon Warrior III NINE YEARS AGO...and it is suppose to be a semi-finalist now?

In 2004 Gold/Silver lost to Xenogears.

Last year Gold/Silver almost beat Majora's Mask despite Red/Blue/Yellow being in the poll.

Red/Blue/Yellow might be the strongest non-Ocarina of Time/Final Fantasy VII game on this site, despite the fact that in 2002 Pikachu almost lost to PaRappa The Rapper.

In 2002 Sonic and Samus went 50/50 with each other. Nowadays Samus getting 65% on Sonic is more likely than Sonic beating Samus.

Remember how I said in 2002 Pikachu almost lost to PaRappa the Rapper? In 2007 Pikachu beat both Dante and Leon. In 2009 Charizard beat Bowser and did better on Mario than any non-Link/Sephiroth/Cloud character has done since 2004 without SFF help. See that list of Noble Niners, the contest elites? Charizard out-did them.

Times have changed since way back when, and there is no better example than Pokemon going from being terrible fodder to a force that should be feared.
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Haste_2 | Posted 11/25/2010 10:48:40 PM | message detail
Here's THE day that marked the rise of Pokemon....

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2442

Guru's predictions? 70%, 63.63%, 67.12%, 79%(HM), 69%, 756%, 66.12%, and 57.08% (Lopen).

Aprosenf | Posted 7/18/2006 8:22:42 PM | message detail
HM wins.


*match starts at 9:00*

Janus5000 | Posted 7/18/2006 9:10:26 PM | message detail
What in the...

LeonhartForever | Posted 7/18/2006 9:10:50 PM | message detail
Haha, Pokemon actually cut into the percentage, and the lead's barely over 100. This is awesome.

steve illumina | Posted 7/18/2006 9:09:30 PM | message detail
How can it be so close???

cyko | Posted 7/18/2006 9:06:55 PM | message detail
Pokemon 45.96% 267
Metroid 54.04% 314
TOTAL VOTES 581

WTF............

Master Moltar | Posted 7/18/2006 9:11:07 PM | message detail
I got connectiowned, and I see...

Pokemon...looking like it could....win?

WTF?!?!?!!?!?!?

Mumei | Posted 7/18/2006 9:12:07 PM | message detail
This.
Is.
So.
Awesome.

O_O

steve illumina | Posted 7/18/2006 9:12:25 PM | message detail
No this cant be...my oracle pick...nooooooooooo!

KamikazePotato | Posted 7/18/2006 9:13:17 PM | message detail
My Pokemon>Metroid pick doesn't look nearly as insane now.

Oh, Metroid will still win. But I get the moral victory.

gtonizuka49 | Posted 7/18/2006 9:20:17 PM | message detail
This is bigger than Knuckles/Magus. This is unlike anything we've ever seen before.


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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
MegatokyoEd | Posted 11/25/2010 10:51:51 PM | message detail
The funny thing is if that match was held today, Pokemon would win with 60%+
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gearofages | Posted 11/25/2010 10:54:10 PM | message detail
Just judging from that four way poll, which seems to be the kicker for GSC doing something in this contest, if GSC does manage to beat two Zelda games, it should get completely obliterated by Metal Gear Solid 3/4.
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/25/2010 10:54:21 PM | message detail
oh god I was searching the stats topics for when that match started...

GTAIV/SonicTheHedgehog/Metroid Prime 3/Halo 3

Seriously November starts the best year of gaming EVAH.

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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/25/2010 10:59:04 PM | message detail
GSC might be able to beat MGS1 in a day match, let alone the weaker MGSes.
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MegatokyoEd | Posted 11/25/2010 10:59:15 PM | message detail
Just judging from that four way poll, which seems to be the kicker for GSC doing something in this contest, if GSC does manage to beat two Zelda games, it should get completely obliterated by Metal Gear Solid 3/4.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3463. Nope.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/25/2010 10:59:19 PM | message detail

From: MegatokyoEd | #075
The funny thing is if that match was held today, Pokemon would win with 60%+


I doubt this.
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ctesjbuvf | Posted 11/25/2010 11:04:17 PM | message detail
I think in 1v1 RBY could give FFVII just as close a match as Pokemon vs. Metroid was.
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ctesjbuvf | Posted 11/25/2010 11:07:31 PM | message detail
Just judging from that four way poll, which seems to be the kicker for GSC doing something in this contest, if GSC does manage to beat two Zelda games, it should get completely obliterated by Metal Gear Solid 3/4.

It's a day match, Pokemon has an impressive day vote. In a 24 hour match, I would give the edge to MSG 3/4 though.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/25/2010 11:09:41 PM | message detail
If RBY could get that close to FFVII 1v1 then I'd call GSC to the finals a lock. FFX couldn't manage to break 40% on Ocarina of Time despite both Pokemon and Melee being there.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/25/2010 11:14:59 PM | message detail
And man, I never realized how much of a monster GSC's/lol MGS's ASV is. GSC was down 6400 votes to MGS going into it, and not only did it rip into the percent, it actually cut 700 votes by the end.
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gearofages | Posted 11/25/2010 11:20:07 PM | message detail
GSC isn't RBY. All signs from current and previous polls lead me to believe that it is just another Pokemon game. And from that, I conclude that being just another Pokemon game is not a positive asset to have in this contest.
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/25/2010 11:24:01 PM | message detail
If 'just another Pokemon game' means that you're a threat to the likes of MGS in a day match, then yes, it is an extremely positive asset to have. Doubly so when you realize that the competition is MGS2/3/4, all of whom would lose to the first.

And that HeartGold/SoulSilver were released since the last contest, so GSC has reason to be even stronger than before.
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creativename | Posted 11/26/2010 12:01:07 AM | message detail
In the 2nd half of that match, MGS got only 50.94% on GSC.

However - Tactics was in that match. That's a big asterisk, and we don't really know what it means. If MGS at 51% in a day match vs. GSC is legit, GSC should beat MGS4 handily. It shouldn't even be that competitive. Especially since GSC has some reason to boost, while there are suspicions MGS4 might have declined.

But is that legit? Who knows? In the second half of that match between just those three (ignoring Deus Ex), FFT got 24.28%, MGS 38.57%, and GSC 37.15%. 24.28% is a very significant number, and if those votes hurt MGS more, that changes things pretty substantially.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 11/26/2010 2:18:08 AM | message detail
To my recollection MGS almost lost to RBY in R2 when there were two other Nintendo games in the poll to steal votes from RBY. I doubt that FFT was doing much to MGS's strength, but that weird FF7/MGS SFF match might say otherwise. I also doubt that MGS was SFFing FFT, but who knows?
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 11/26/2010 2:59:25 AM | message detail
Another trend I just noticed: casual games from this generation are stinking it up (e.g. Halo 3, GTAIV, both Modern Warfares), while hardcore current-gen games are exceeding expectations (e.g. BioShock, Portal).
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Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 11/26/2010 4:02:02 AM | message detail
Nice performance of Pokemon.And now an unrelated question,what is Black Friday?
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Menji76 | Posted 11/26/2010 4:08:06 AM | message detail
Biggest shopping day in America.

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Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/26/2010 4:13:13 AM | message detail
Oh hey, first match of the contest where Pokémon looks good.

Of course, Fire Emblem's mostly an unknown and could be really weak, but this is what the series needed to do after an abysmal first round. Of course if it wants a shot out of its division let alone to the final GSC is going to need to triple Mario Kart Wii...
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Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 11/26/2010 4:16:29 AM | message detail
You have a national shopping day?Now that is awesome.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/26/2010 4:59:29 AM | message detail

From: swordz9 | #055
I think most students get Friday off, but probably little to no workers do.


Only the workers in crappy jobs. Most of us who put the proper effort into college get Black Friday off.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/26/2010 5:00:02 AM | message detail

From: Greyfeld | #059
What's funny is that people were arguing with me about Fusion saying that there's NO WAY it could have any semblance of strength, and that it just HAD to be DPP sucking it up.


Came in to say this. Told you guys to relax and wait for things to play out, sheesh.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/26/2010 5:00:47 AM | message detail

From: creativename | #087
In the 2nd half of that match, MGS got only 50.94% on GSC.

However - Tactics was in that match. That's a big asterisk, and we don't really know what it means. If MGS at 51% in a day match vs. GSC is legit, GSC should beat MGS4 handily. It shouldn't even be that competitive. Especially since GSC has some reason to boost, while there are suspicions MGS4 might have declined.

But is that legit? Who knows? In the second half of that match between just those three (ignoring Deus Ex), FFT got 24.28%, MGS 38.57%, and GSC 37.15%. 24.28% is a very significant number, and if those votes hurt MGS more, that changes things pretty substantially.


Ctrl + F "HGSS"

huh
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/26/2010 5:03:41 AM | message detail
Don't you have Boxing Day?
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/26/2010 5:06:51 AM | message detail
*looks at analysis crew*

And I thought I was low-balling it with 63%
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/26/2010 6:14:57 AM | message detail
Don't you have Boxing Day?

Nope.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/26/2010 6:58:37 AM | message detail
Match LXXVI: (7) Valkyria Chronicles vs. (2) Super Smash Bros. Brawl

Last Round

Valkyria Chronicles – 52.41%
Disgaea – 47.59%

Super Smash Bros. Brawl – 83.26%
Mario Kart DS – 16.74%

Analysis

Usually the first round filters most of the weak games, but sometimes a few can get through to the next round. Brawl is shaping up to have the biggest blowout of the round in this match. While most of the board got burned by underestimating Valkyria Chronicles the game is still pretty weak as it only just defeated Disgaea.

In the previous contest Disgaea was able to get 24% on Melee with two other Nintendo games holding it back. This almost suggests that Brawl has to be pushing towards 80% for it to look good and I’m not too sure if it’s up for the challenge. At high percent anti-votes start mattering a lot more and while people who hate the Wii rather than just not caring and hate Brawl are just a small loud minority they do start to matter at a high percent.

Valkyria Chronicles may not be the weakest game that made the second round, but it was unlucky to be facing one of the strongest games in the bracket. If Brawl somehow struggles to triple Valkyria Chronicles I feel it would be very hard to argue for it to win over Melee let alone the entire contest. If the anti-votes are kept in check it should be able to break 80% without too much trouble.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Super Smash Bros. Brawl > Disgaea

charmander6000’s Prediction: Super Smash Bros. Brawl wins, 81.42% - 18.58%

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GotD Bracket: 76/84 Today's Matches: Pokemon DPP & SSBB