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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 954

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Haste_2 | Posted 11/24/2010 11:50:55 AM | message detail

Today's match makes me feel better about GTA:SA vs. Golden Sun, as GTA:SA should be a little stronger than GTA3.

Also, with today's result how do you feel about FFXII vs. Portal now?

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kinsho3 | Posted 11/24/2010 11:51:06 AM | message detail

From: Kotetsu534 | #089
Hmm, Vice City got 38.6% on Kingdom Hearts (R1 '09). Assuming RE4 is very slightly stronger than KHII (see, R1 and R2 '09), and the KH games are about equal, Vice City should be in the high 30s against RE4. If it's higher, that makes KH look stronger than KHII, if it's lower that makes KHII look stronger than KHI.

Dude, this is seriously much appreciated. I've been looking for some way to try and predict that match for the battle bracket. This may help.
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Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 11/24/2010 11:52:53 AM | message detail

ok fair enouh, thought that was the first round. RE4 seemed to have some sort of fixed strength throughout the contest.
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ctesjbuvf | Posted 11/24/2010 11:54:04 AM | message detail

From: Haste_2 | #101
Also, with today's result how do you feel about FFXII vs. Portal now?

Confident in FFXII.
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Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 11/24/2010 11:54:16 AM | message detail

From: Haste_2 | #101
Today's match makes me feel better about GTA:SA vs. Golden Sun, as GTA:SA should be a little stronger than GTA3.

Also, with today's result how do you feel about FFXII vs. Portal now?

People so want Portal to win it's not funny. It would be hilarious if FFXII won.
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Greyfeld | Posted 11/24/2010 11:57:24 AM | message detail

Actually, now that I think about it...

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3473

Final Fantasy 12 (2009g) VS Portal (2009g)

Final Fantasy 12 has a strength of 29.16.
Portal has a strength of 25.82.

Final Fantasy 12 wins with 55.73% of the vote!
A win of 13,935 with 121,664 total votes cast.
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kinsho3 | Posted 11/24/2010 12:00:22 PM | message detail

Can't rely too much on 2009 stats. 2010 Portal > 2009 Portal
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Haste_2 | Posted 11/24/2010 12:07:36 PM | message detail

GTA3 seems to winning the ASV by a bit, as expected. I'll randomly predict this ends up almost exactly 57/43.

If HL2 didn't rise (today's poll seems to suggest that, unless GTA3 really is on par with VC or SA), could Portal?

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Greyfeld | Posted 11/24/2010 12:22:09 PM | message detail

I could see Portal rising with the hype of Portal 2, without affecting HL2. But how much would it increase it by is the real question.
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PSN - Aevio
Playing: Might & Magic: Clash of Heroes

NoDicePwn | Posted 11/24/2010 12:24:18 PM | message detail

If GTA3 can own the ASV like this against HL2, its in for a world of trouble against MP
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Greyfeld | Posted 11/24/2010 12:25:26 PM | message detail

Gears of War (2009g) VS Portal (2009g)

Gears of War has a strength of 19.92.
Portal has a strength of 25.82.

Portal wins with 61.43% of the vote!
A win of 27,588 with 120,733 total votes cast.

I'm not very good with this sort of math. Can somebody stat out what the new xstat match would be in Portal/FF12, if Gears=Gears2?
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Greyfeld | Posted 11/24/2010 12:35:27 PM | message detail

Ok, I THINK I figured it out.

Assuming we can take the xstats at face value (I haven't really looked closely at the matches these games pertain to, so if they're off, I apologize), also assuming that Gears=Gears2, Portal xstats out to win with 50.48% of the votes.

However, it's probably safe to assume Gears > Gears 2. By how much is unclear. Of course, without more info, there's not much more I can do with the numbers.
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Playing: Might & Magic: Clash of Heroes

Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/24/2010 12:39:41 PM | message detail

I wouldn't read much into Portal/FFXII from this, but we know HL2 beat FFXII last time round, which suggests FFXII is only slightly stronger than GTAIII. That being the case, the fact that Portal beat Halo 3 in '09 suggests (as GTAIII lost to Halo: CE) that FFXII wouldn't beat '09 Portal very comfortably at all. If Portal has boosted (and based off round one, I'd say there's a good chance it has), it'll find it tough to lose against FFXII, especially factoring the anti-voting FF games get.

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EvilNcr | Posted 11/24/2010 12:55:52 PM | message detail

People put way too much faith in 4-way polls.
If you manage to come up with a Portal > Gears with 61.43% yet you see it eating up Gears of Wars 2 with 71.47% and Paper Mario eating Gears of War with 59.82%. when 1v1 matches roll out.

It should be a big hint that those stats aren't reliable.
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Greyfeld | Posted 11/24/2010 1:02:03 PM | message detail

Stats are only unreliable if you don't know the trends behind them, no matter how many entries are in the poll. I'm not posting this stuff just to be arbitrary, I'm posting it in hopes that somebody with more knowledge about this stuff than myself can point out where the information is correct, and where it's misleading.
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Playing: Might & Magic: Clash of Heroes

Pondos | Posted 11/24/2010 1:12:19 PM | message detail

Soooo....

GoW > HL2 isn't going to happen, is it?
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TheCodeisBosco | Posted 11/24/2010 1:27:25 PM | message detail

(Checks poll results)

...well, this isn't too promising. >_>

I guess it makes me feel a little better about SA, though.

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frisqo | Posted 11/24/2010 1:41:23 PM | message detail

Yeah i let my fanboyism get in the way and picked both god of war games to go to their division final as my upset picks.

pretty upset at my upset picks and gamefaqs lack of appreciation for such classics (seriously where do the people who play all these million-selling casual franchises go online!? what website!? do they even have the intwerwebz??????)
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695924 | Posted 11/24/2010 1:49:57 PM | message detail

Well GoW2 never had a chance of getting past WW. That wasn't really much of a surprise if you look at who wins the majority of these contests.
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transients | Posted 11/24/2010 1:50:35 PM | message detail

hmm... it's weird. I think this is an underwhelming performance and that Prime is going to beat HL2, but at the same time, a GTA game straight up beat Prime. I don't think that would happen again though.

I'm not convinced HL2 beats God of War or Tales of Symphonia, so I'm holding off on judging this performance.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/24/2010 2:05:53 PM | message detail

I guess I still have decent respect for GTAIII. I mean, I'd take LBP to beat Mega Man 9, and that suggests GTAIII should outright beat Okami with ease. I'm content with Gordy's percentage here, but the trends are disconcerting. I know we all tout Samus as the queen of hourly consistency, but eh, I've gotta say Metroid leans slightly toward the daytime unless I see it disproven. Watching HL2 lose the ASV to GTA doesn't give me the greatest of confidence when it goes up against Nintendo in the day.
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FastFalcon05 | Posted 11/24/2010 2:18:47 PM | message detail

"the queen of hourly consistency"

nice.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/24/2010 2:25:04 PM | message detail

GRAND THEFT AUTO BEAT METROID PRIME

Christ, you people are ridiculous
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/24/2010 2:26:14 PM | message detail

Where is this GTA3 disrespect coming from? It was just under KOTOR and Halo last year.

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DFF

KamikazePotato | Posted 11/24/2010 2:32:26 PM | message detail

In fact, let's look at comparisons.

Through direct matchups, Okami is projected to get 58.93% on Demon's Souls. Grand Theft Auto II got 61.98% on LittleBigPlanet. So if Demon's Souls=LittleBigPlanet, GTA3 beats Okami with room to spare - and most people here seem to think that LBP is stronger than Demon's Souls, so it's likely that the GTA3 would beat it even worse than that.

Today, HL2 is getting 57% on GTA3, which implies that it would get well over 60% on Okami and would handle Diablo II, Halo 1, and KOTOR with ease. So how exactly is this a bad result?

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DFF

EvilNcr | Posted 11/24/2010 2:57:48 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #123
GRAND THEFT AUTO BEAT METROID PRIME

Christ, you people are ridiculous

WIth Paper Mario splitting the Nintendo vote. The only certain thing you can use in that poll is that KH is leaps above Metroid Prime since Paper Mario + Metroid Prime still comes short on KH.

You're misusing the stats by ignoring obvious counter-points.
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EvilNcr | Posted 11/24/2010 3:07:49 PM | message detail

And if I want to mean... I could use that to prove my point :

http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=47
http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=20

You seriously believe CoD4 is above Pokemon? Or GTA? Or Mario Galaxy?

There's stats... and there's stats.
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transients | Posted 11/24/2010 3:08:33 PM | message detail

I think Prime looks stronger this year than last. it'll also be a day match. I think it's a tossup right now but I'm not convinced on anything. division 2's third round could be really interesting. this is the most balanced division in the bracket.
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xyzzy

Achromatic | Posted 11/24/2010 3:09:11 PM | message detail

Cod4 would beat any gta <_<
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Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 11/24/2010 3:10:07 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #125
In fact, let's look at comparisons.

Through direct matchups, Okami is projected to get 58.93% on Demon's Souls. Grand Theft Auto II got 61.98% on LittleBigPlanet. So if Demon's Souls=LittleBigPlanet, GTA3 beats Okami with room to spare - and most people here seem to think that LBP is stronger than Demon's Souls, so it's likely that the GTA3 would beat it even worse than that.

Today, HL2 is getting 57% on GTA3, which implies that it would get well over 60% on Okami and would handle Diablo II, Halo 1, and KOTOR with ease. So how exactly is this a bad result?

HL2 would never beat KOTOR with ease.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/24/2010 3:12:57 PM | message detail

Yes it would, even today's match suggests it would be a 55/45 match.
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GotD Bracket: 68/76 Today's Matches: GoW & HL2

TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/24/2010 3:18:19 PM | message detail

So what's the strongest FPS in these Games contests? Goldeneye 007? Is Goldeneye 007 the strongest Western game?
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kinsho3 | Posted 11/24/2010 3:21:13 PM | message detail

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3468

The one thing I take away from today's poll and the poll above is that Half-Life 2 is at least on Halo's level. At least.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3471

Okami is a clear step below Halo's level. So it seems more instructive to wait and see how MP performs against Okami. If Okami gets within 45% of Metroid Prime, Half-Life 2 should be the favorite.
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Dr. Football, you are the man! I'll take you down next contest though...

PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/24/2010 3:22:32 PM | message detail

Goldeneye would do bad bad things to CoD and Halo. I'm not sure how many Western games challenge it; maybe Fallout 3.
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Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 11/24/2010 3:27:09 PM | message detail

that's not with ease. anyway i honestly can't wait until the latter stages so people can discount fourway BS. People use stats like they are accurate, the MP/hL2 is going to be one hell of a close match.

From: TheKoolAidShoto | #132
So what's the strongest FPS in these Games contests? Goldeneye 007? Is Goldeneye 007 the strongest Western game?

It's between GE and FO3. Goldeneye would definitely beat every FPS on this site. Especially considering how strong N64 games can be.
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Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 11/24/2010 3:29:01 PM | message detail

Though i don't believe Oblivion is that much weaker than FO3.
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IngmarBirdman | Posted 11/24/2010 3:35:53 PM | message detail

Europe makes no sense. How are they above the % for games like Deus Ex, Demons Souls, Silent Hil 2 (over GTA: VC), and agreed with the huge backing of Portal ... but NOW they're more for GTA than the U.S. The f.

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NoDicePwn | Posted 11/24/2010 3:37:17 PM | message detail

FO3 isn't a FPS. Its an rpg that takes place in first person.
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NoDicePwn | Posted 11/24/2010 3:40:18 PM | message detail

Not to mention that only less than half of the weapons in the game are actually firearms..
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695924 | Posted 11/24/2010 3:43:44 PM | message detail

FPRPG.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/24/2010 4:03:52 PM | message detail

Europe makes no sense. How are they above the % for games like Deus Ex, Demons Souls, Silent Hil 2 (over GTA: VC), and agreed with the huge backing of Portal ... but NOW they're more for GTA than the U.S. The f.

GTA has always done well in Europe.
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GotD Bracket: 68/76 Today's Matches: GoW & HL2

Lopen | Posted 11/24/2010 4:04:58 PM | message detail

Man, you know what's funny? My northeast division. I got every round 1 match right, but in round 2 I have DMC3, Mega Man 9, ToS, and GTA3 winning.

It takes skill to be so bad.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/24/2010 4:05:14 PM | message detail

From the last topic:

IkaMusume | Posted 11/24/2010 4:12:53 AM | message detail
Uhh, if you're gonna insult me, at least make sense. He didn't say anywhere why there was no asv tomorrow. I've never heard of the day before Thanksgiving being a day off.. only Thanksgiving and the friday.

When I was back in high school, I never got off on the day before Thanksgiving. I got off on Thanksgiving, the day after Thanksgiving, and the next Monday after Thanksgiving.

Hourly vote totals so far in this match:

1:00 | 6615
2:00 | 5273
3:00 | 4921
4:00 | 4722
5:00 | 4201
6:00 | 4130
7:00 | 3615

Yep, those look like ASV trends alright, although it is slightly diluted.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/24/2010 4:10:57 PM | message detail

From: Lopen | #142
It takes skill to be so bad.

Years of practice
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Haste_2 | Posted 11/24/2010 4:17:41 PM | message detail

I'm not convinced HL2 beats God of War or Tales of Symphonia, so I'm holding off on judging this performance.
It's going to be a day match, won't it? Ouch. It will be close, for sure. HL2 probably will get 53% if it's lucky. I think the fact that God of War struggled with Symphonia will basically ensure HL2's victory, though. This division is going to be tight.

God of War beat GTA:SA by a small margin, and GTA:SA is a bit stronger than GTA3, judging by their opponents. (KOTOR/Halo/Diablo II don't seem to be quite the level of God of War or Oblivion, if you ask me.... I could be wrong)

Let's go back to those 4-way polls and find out what the most optimistic way of measuring GTA3 compared to GTA:SA:

I won't go through the shortcuts, but going through the most optimistic measurement of GTA3 and the most pessimistic for GTA:SA (I won't bore you with the details):

GTA3 gets an expected 36.11% on SSBM, one that was leeched by Zelda:WW
GTA:SA gets an expected 32.08% on SSBB

Reversing the optimism around?
GTA3 gets an expected 29.29% on Melee; this is measuring based on Diablo II's Round 3 score against FFX/KH/SSBM
GTA:SA gets an expected 33.72% on Brawl

So, maybe GTA3 could be equal to it, after all. Somehow I have a hard time accepting that KOTOR could hang with Oblivion, though.

Poll
God of War vs. Metroid Prime: who ya got? (assume a 24-hour match)

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Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 11/24/2010 4:18:38 PM | message detail

Nintendofaqs man.Metroid of course.
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Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 11/24/2010 4:19:53 PM | message detail

From: NoDicePwn | #138
FO3 isn't a FPS. Its an rpg that takes place in first person.

never said it was, i was referring to the strognest western game. FO3 is more of a shooter than an RPG though.
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NoDicePwn | Posted 11/24/2010 4:20:58 PM | message detail

FO3 is more of a shooter than an RPG though.

Huh? Its one of the deepest and most indepth rpgs out there. How could you say that the shooter mechanics (which are pretty barebones to be honest, its not where the development time was spent on) are the main part of the game?
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Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 11/24/2010 4:21:42 PM | message detail

God of War vs. Metroid Prime: who ya got? (assume a 24-hour match)

If GOw can't even comfortably beat ToS how the hell could it beat Prime?
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EvilNcr | Posted 11/24/2010 4:21:51 PM | message detail

From: Lopen | #142
It takes skill to be so bad.

I have Halo 3 and GTAIII in the quarters.
If that can console you a little bit.
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