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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 954

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neonreaper | Posted 11/24/2010 9:58:13 AM | message detail
who wants my nuts

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Solid Snake, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/24/2010 9:58:32 AM | message detail
me me me
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tgs2 | Posted 11/24/2010 9:59:03 AM | message detail
Like I said earlier. It isn't that big of a bomb if golden sun loses 60-40 now. SA is respectable!
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Advokaiser | Posted 11/24/2010 9:59:18 AM | message detail
I want your bolts

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Greyfeld | Posted 11/24/2010 9:59:18 AM | message detail
Um... but they're ALL franchises. How do they all overperform if they're... performing against each other? Do... only some of them overperform at random? Do you even check what you say?

*Sighs* Overperform in comparison to all-system polls. For example, God of War scored a very convincing 1st-place vote in one of the polls I linked. But look at it struggling with Tales of Symphonia. The fact that the game is one of th
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paulg235 | Posted 11/24/2010 9:59:19 AM | message detail
Holy crap a stats topic that was made AFTER the previous stats topic closed
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voltch | Posted 11/24/2010 9:59:33 AM | message detail
smurf wouldn't be happy.
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Nyoro~n
gAmEwlzArD | Posted 11/24/2010 9:59:39 AM | message detail
Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Solid Snake, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.

lmao
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sess
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/24/2010 10:00:24 AM | message detail

From: gAmEwlzArD | #008
Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Solid Snake, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.

lmao


='(
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Greyfeld | Posted 11/24/2010 10:00:25 AM | message detail
gah, message got clipped.

*the fact that the game is one of the strongest Sony-only titles doesn't mean jack when it's going against games from the entire industry.
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PSN - Aevio
Playing: Might & Magic: Clash of Heroes
paulg235 | Posted 11/24/2010 10:01:16 AM | message detail
Someone really needs to add a description to the Noble Nine thing so people can finally shut up about it. Better yet, wouldn't mind if it was removed altogether.
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The Gamer In Me
"Oh boy, I always wanted to be a pedo." - Janus5000's response to sleeping with Misty for the night
Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 11/24/2010 10:01:32 AM | message detail
Crono should be there ahead of Sonic. Can't believe that overrated rodent is N9.
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Greyfeld | Posted 11/24/2010 10:01:43 AM | message detail
btw, I always hear people talk about the "guru." Where can I see that info at?
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Playing: Might & Magic: Clash of Heroes
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/24/2010 10:02:23 AM | message detail
Uhh...so basically you're saying God of War overperformed in that poll?

....so are you saying that Golden Sun beats God of War, which beat San Andreas, easily?
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/24/2010 10:03:08 AM | message detail
The guru is here: http://thengamer.com/guru/
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"SEXTON HILLBEAST" - TimJab
paulg235 | Posted 11/24/2010 10:03:17 AM | message detail

From: Greyfeld | #013
btw, I always hear people talk about the "guru." Where can I see that info at?


Find the Guru topic on this board. You find it by entering "guru" in the search bar.
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The Gamer In Me
"Oh boy, I always wanted to be a pedo." - Janus5000's response to sleeping with Misty for the night
paulg235 | Posted 11/24/2010 10:03:51 AM | message detail
Or follow that link War has provided for you. >__>
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The Gamer In Me
"Paulg is a genius." - MajinZidane
The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/24/2010 10:03:52 AM | message detail

From: Greyfeld | #005
For example, God of War scored a very convincing 1st-place vote in one of the polls I linked.


No, a performance that implies you lose handily to Golden Sun(it didn't do as well as Ratchet) is not an overperformance
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Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 11/24/2010 10:04:38 AM | message detail
Gow/SA would be an SFF match to some degree so that's not exactly accurate and LOL @ GS>ToS. ToS is stronger than any Nintendo RPG bar Paper Marios
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/24/2010 10:04:58 AM | message detail
against Ratchet*
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
TRE Public Account | Posted 11/24/2010 10:05:19 AM | message detail
*Sighs* Overperform in comparison to all-system polls. For example, God of War scored a very convincing 1st-place vote in one of the polls I linked. But look at it struggling with Tales of Symphonia. The fact that the game is one of the strongest Sony-only titles doesn't mean jack when it's going against games from the entire industry.

This one?:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3999

Tales of Symphonia would stomp all of the non-GoW games in that poll. Tales of Symphonia isn't weak to begin with.

btw, I always hear people talk about the "guru." Where can I see that info at?

http://thengamer.com/guru/
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/24/2010 10:08:37 AM | message detail
And yeah, you forget that how good your performance is is based solely on the games you're with, it's a comparison. That's why it doesn't make sense to say "they all overperform" because... well, just think about it. If ALL of them are over performing then NO ONE is over performing.
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
EvilNcr | Posted 11/24/2010 10:09:54 AM | message detail
Personally, SA 57-43 over GS. Something like that. 2-3% off give or take.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/24/2010 10:11:26 AM | message detail
I doubt San Andreas will have anything resembling a comfortable win.
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Greyfeld | Posted 11/24/2010 10:11:38 AM | message detail
And yeah, you forget that how good your performance is is based solely on the games you're with, it's a comparison. That's why it doesn't make sense to say "they all overperform" because... well, just think about it. If ALL of them are over performing then NO ONE is over performing.

My point was that a game in a "system only" or "company only" poll is likely to show a higher percentage than in a "goty" or "gotd" poll. In this way, they "overperform," since they don't have the same level of competition to whittle down their votes.

I really feel like I'm not explaining this very well.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/24/2010 10:14:52 AM | message detail
We're not basing our analysis on total percent. Golden Sun did better on Ratchet and Clank than God of War did. That's a fact. If you insist on using those polls we've stopped paying attention to, then you need to accept that your line of logic states that Golden Sun (and if you insist on using that poll too, Fire Emblem) cleanly beats God of War.

Obviously this is silly and why those polls aren't used in analysis.
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TRE Public Account | Posted 11/24/2010 10:17:39 AM | message detail
My point was that a game in a "system only" or "company only" poll is likely to show a higher percentage than in a "goty" or "gotd" poll. In this way, they "overperform," since they don't have the same level of competition to whittle down their votes.

I'm not following this at all. Higher percentage of what? Who or what is overperforming? What makes you think this applies to system or company polls?
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Dr_Football punted my bracket across the field.
Congrats to Dr_Football for winning the Character Battle 8 Guru Contest!
Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 11/24/2010 10:18:57 AM | message detail
or you know Jak and Daxter(for some STUPID reason) wasn't there so all Jak fans voted for rachet...
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/24/2010 10:19:04 AM | message detail
*checks in*

Make your time, MP.

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DFF
Greyfeld | Posted 11/24/2010 10:19:22 AM | message detail
We're not basing our analysis on total percent. Golden Sun did better on Ratchet and Clank than God of War did. That's a fact. If you insist on using those polls we've stopped paying attention to, then you need to accept that your line of logic states that Golden Sun (and if you insist on using that poll too, Fire Emblem) cleanly beats God of War.

I suppose that depends on where you believe the LFF is in those polls.
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Greyfeld | Posted 11/24/2010 10:21:08 AM | message detail
I'm not following this at all. Higher percentage of what? Who or what is overperforming? What makes you think this applies to system or company polls?

Forget it, I'm kinda tired of trying to explain it properly when I obviously don't have the right words to do so.
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Solid_Mike86 | Posted 11/24/2010 10:23:16 AM | message detail
I can't wait for MP to beat HL2. It's going to be very satisfying.
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Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 11/24/2010 10:25:52 AM | message detail
WTF hl2's gains are being decreased significantly.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/24/2010 10:33:07 AM | message detail
Wait, you guys think this is a bad result from HL2? Uuuuuh you guys do remember that MP lost to a GTA game last year

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DFF
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/24/2010 10:36:13 AM | message detail
GTA was never illegitimate, you know <_< I'd seriously consider a couple of those games to beat Metroid Prime.

Also, just woke up. God damn, that match went from tied to 1200 votes in a few hours?
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/24/2010 10:36:52 AM | message detail
F***ING NINJA'D
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Solid_Mike86 | Posted 11/24/2010 10:44:14 AM | message detail
GTA Vice City is more popular than GTA3 and it stunk up the place against SILENT HILL 2.

And yes MP lost to a GTA game in a four way poll. Not 1 vs 1.

Make your time HL2 :)
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/24/2010 10:46:29 AM | message detail
Wow, so the game that beat MP stunk it up against SH2? Sucks for MP!

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DFF
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/24/2010 10:48:47 AM | message detail

From: Solid_Mike86 | #037
GTA Vice City is more popular than GTA3 and it stunk up the place against SILENT HILL 2.

And yes MP lost to a GTA game in a four way poll. Not 1 vs 1.

Make your time HL2 :)


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3467

You have to give Prime almost *all* of Paper Mario's votes just to equal this performance today, which speaks nothing of Vice City and Kingdom Hearts being on the same system. And the GTA games basically all have the same strength.

Not that I'd expect you to do stuff other than biased rambling since you'll never mature ("VINCE YOUNG IS SO AWESOME HE WON'T MELT DOWN AGAIN"), but I see other people -- really smart people -- saying this match is bad for Half-Life. I'm just sitting here shaking my head about it, because you'd think the stats topic would know this match is just the opposite. This is a *really* good match for Half-Life.
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Heroic Common Sense | Posted 11/24/2010 10:49:49 AM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #038
Wow, so the game that beat MP stunk it up against SH2? Sucks for MP!


It's Super Luigi, you can't expect rational thought processes.

He lacks common sense, after all.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/24/2010 10:50:05 AM | message detail
This match is neither bad nor good.

It's doing just what it needs to do to keep MP and HL2 interesting.
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Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 11/24/2010 10:51:02 AM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #034
Wait, you guys think this is a bad result from HL2? Uuuuuh you guys do remember that MP lost to a GTA game last year


In a fourway with an N64 game in the poll which killed Prime. By that logic HL2 barely beat FFXII.
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The Mana Sword | Posted 11/24/2010 10:51:04 AM | message detail
I dunno if I'd say this is really good. I think HL2 is doing what it needs to do to show that I can definitely win the division, but I don't think this result screams "PRIME IS SCREWED".
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
KommunistKoala | Posted 11/24/2010 10:51:28 AM | message detail
Yeah everyone listen to KP

He was right about Demon's Souls/MM9 and Tales of Symphonia he'll be right again!
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The Mana Sword | Posted 11/24/2010 10:51:31 AM | message detail
what ever noob avenger
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/24/2010 10:51:33 AM | message detail
I'd say this match is definitely good for HL2.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3468

LOL 4-ways all you want, but this puts it above all those games. Do we even take Metroid Prime over Diablo II? Halo? KOTOR?

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DFF
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/24/2010 10:52:12 AM | message detail
I've called every match that Tales of Symphonia has been in correctly!

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DFF
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/24/2010 10:52:28 AM | message detail
Prime has never (even in this contest) shown it can hack it in a contest setting. What's worse is I *love* the game, but so many of its fans are embarrassing.
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TRE Public Account | Posted 11/24/2010 10:52:30 AM | message detail
It's possible GTA games are simply weaker now then they were last time.
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Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 11/24/2010 10:53:19 AM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #039
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3467

You have to give Prime almost *all* of Paper Mario's votes just to equal this performance today, which speaks nothing of Vice City and Kingdom Hearts being on the same system. And the GTA games basically all have the same strength.

Not that I'd expect you to do stuff other than biased rambling since you'll never mature ("VINCE YOUNG IS SO AWESOME HE WON'T MELT DOWN AGAIN"), but I see other people -- really smart people -- saying this match is bad for Half-Life. I'm just sitting here shaking my head about it, because you'd think the stats topic would know this match is just the opposite. This is a *really* good match for Half-Life.


Using fourways is stupid period. MP/HL is going to be close, especially in a 1v1 where Prime will get a lot of Nintendo fanboy votes.
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