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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 953

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pjbasis | Posted 11/23/2010 9:13:36 PM | message detail
That was a funny update.

Rooting for that lead change next one.
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HaRRicH | Posted 11/23/2010 9:13:42 PM | message detail
Er, eighteen votes, whatever.
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What do Ocarina of Time, Majora's Mask, and Twilight Princess have in common? EPONA!
http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg
charmander6000 | Posted 11/23/2010 9:14:47 PM | message detail
Updated Top 10

Top 10 Smallest Day Vote Gaps
1. Team Fortress 2 – 30893 vs. Fable – 30856 (R1) – 37
2. Morrowind – 25522 vs. Warcraft III – 25066 (R1) – 456
3. Deus Ex – 25117 vs. Rock Band 2 – 24365 (R1) – 752
4. Street Fighter IV – 27481 vs. Sonic Adventure 2 – 26673 (R1) – 808
5. Pokemon RSE – 30021 vs. Grand Theft Auto IV – 29113 (R1) – 908
6. Marvel vs. Capcom 2 – 26911 vs. New Super Mario Bros. Wii – 25287 (R1) – 1624
7. Borderlands – 27909 vs. Tales of Vesperia – 22346 (R1) – 5563
8. Final Fantasy XII – 27715 vs. Crisis Core – 22089 (R1) – 5626
9. Okami – 27649 vs. Mega Man 9 – 21376 (R2) – 6273
10. Halo: Combat Evolved – 28151 vs. Halo 3 – 21303 (R2) – 6848

Top 10 Most Impressive Day Losers
1. Fable (R1) – 30856
2. Grand Theft Auto IV (R1) – 29113
3. Sonic Adventure 2 (R1) – 26673
4. New Super Mario Bros. Wii (R1) – 25287
5. Warcraft III (R1) – 25066
6. Rock Band 2 (R1) – 24365
7. Tales of Vesperia (R1) – 22346
8. Crisis Core (R1) – 22089
9. Mega Man 9 (R2) – 21376
10. Halo 3 (R2) – 21303

Top 10 Least Impressive Day Winners
1. Deus Ex (R1) – 25117
2. Morrowind (R1) – 25522
3. Persona 4 (R1) – 25820
4. Marvel vs. Capcom 2 (R1) – 26911
5. Assassin’s Creed II (R1) – 27315
6. Street Fighter IV (R1) – 27481
7. Okami (R2) – 27649
8. Final Fantasy XII (R1) – 27715
9. Borderlands (R1) – 27909
10. Halo: Combat Evolved (R2) – 28151

Top 10 Hardest Matches to Predict
1. Pokemon RSE vs. Grand Theft Auto IV (R1) – 26.23%
2. Paper Mario: TTYD vs. Gears of War (R1) – 29.33%
3. Morrowind vs. Warcraft III (R1) – 32.76%
4. Okami vs. Mega Man 9 (R2) – 36.41%
5. Deus Ex vs. Rock Band 2 (R1) – 36.61%
6. Halo: Combat Evolved vs. Halo 3 (R2) – 41.28%
7. Batman: AA vs. Team Fortress 2 (R2) – 41.97%
8. Persona 3 vs. Civilization IV (R1) – 42.85%
9. Tales of Symphonia vs. Resident Evil 5 (R1) – 43.87%
10. Skies of Arcadia vs. Baldur’s Gate II (R1) – 47.63%

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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 68/76 Today's Matches: GoW & HL2
Hochimihnister | Posted 11/23/2010 9:15:06 PM | message detail
The extreme percentage shifts this contest has seen are really quite confounding. The shifts that Cloud and Sephiroth did last contest aren't as impressive anymore. DMC3 gained like 8% last night, almost as much as Cloud did
IkaMusume | Posted 11/23/2010 9:15:06 PM | message detail
28, actually
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/23/2010 9:15:50 PM | message detail
Yeah if ToS can't hold up now, it isn't doing much later on.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 68/76 Today's Matches: GoW & HL2
TheCodeisBosco | Posted 11/23/2010 9:15:53 PM | message detail
More good news!

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CURRENT GOTY SCORE: 69
save_us.kratos
IkaMusume | Posted 11/23/2010 9:16:24 PM | message detail
lol God of War is killing Tales is Asia. Not even Asia can stand those weeaboo rpgs anymore
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/23/2010 9:16:31 PM | message detail
ToS is doing better in Europe than anywhere else guys this means it wins the night vote.

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DFF
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/23/2010 9:17:04 PM | message detail
GoW winning Asia very easily and also winning Oceania. ToS is still winning Europe, but that could change later on.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!
Hochimihnister | Posted 11/23/2010 9:17:09 PM | message detail
At this point in the 15 minute mark, ToS/RE5, ToS only had bled .5% and went on to bleed 4%
ToS has already bled 3%


This match is over unless it isn't
red sox 777 | Posted 11/23/2010 9:17:16 PM | message detail
I thought FFVII kind of lost its touch with the massive rising last contest. I think the reason is that the really early voters have figured out that Link always wins, not Cloud and Sephiroth, and have stopped anti-voting them to some extent, meaning they don't rise as much from the freeze to the end of the power hour anymore.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
pjbasis | Posted 11/23/2010 9:17:26 PM | message detail

From: Hochimihnister | #154
The extreme percentage shifts this contest has seen are really quite confounding. The shifts that Cloud and Sephiroth did last contest aren't as impressive anymore. DMC3 gained like 8% last night, almost as much as Cloud did


Less votals will do that.

Though I don't actually know how many the last contest was getting.
EvilNcr | Posted 11/23/2010 9:17:36 PM | message detail
Yeah, God of War seems to be starting to overcome the board vote from ToS. But one thing worries me a bit. WTF at Asia? Is that the only continent neutering all the rest?
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"You have enemies? Good. That means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life." ~ Winston Churchill
nintendogirl1 (Moderator) | Posted 11/23/2010 9:17:38 PM | message detail
If GoW can be cutting in the Power Hour, it's hard to see this as a ToS win.

It's not OVER over, but it's pretty comforting.
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Happy with my money on GoW.
Greyfeld | Posted 11/23/2010 9:18:12 PM | message detail
ToS is doing better in Europe than anywhere else guys this means it wins the night vote.

Yeah, because we've never had Europe flop after the first 10 minutes of the match before, ever.
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PSN - Aevio
Playing: Might & Magic: Clash of Heroes
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/23/2010 9:18:28 PM | message detail
sarcasm

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DFF
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/23/2010 9:18:31 PM | message detail
Europe hates ToS, as a note.
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I've been burned so bad, but I still play with fire.
Sometimes naked truth is what I don't believe in.
red sox 777 | Posted 11/23/2010 9:18:52 PM | message detail
The Europe number is almost meaningless at this point- there's very few votes coming in from Europe at this time of day.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
IkaMusume | Posted 11/23/2010 9:18:59 PM | message detail
God of War is gonna take over Europe soon enough, along with everywhere else to a 54% win
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/23/2010 9:20:11 PM | message detail
Looking at last year's match it seems that ToS did perform better in Europe. Doesn't change the fact that GoW was winning after 12 hours though.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 68/76 Today's Matches: GoW & HL2
Greyfeld | Posted 11/23/2010 9:20:17 PM | message detail
Yeah, God of War seems to be starting to overcome the board vote from ToS. But one thing worries me a bit. WTF at Asia? Is that the only continent neutering all the rest?

Asia hates ToS. That was something I noticed when I did research for this match last week. It's not that weird, honestly, since the most Asia votes come from the Philippines, not from Japan.
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PSN - Aevio
Playing: Might & Magic: Clash of Heroes
charmander6000 | Posted 11/23/2010 9:20:38 PM | message detail
ToS not dying as fast as I would like.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 68/76 Today's Matches: GoW & HL2
PreseaCombatir | Posted 11/23/2010 9:21:18 PM | message detail
ToS is still hanging on. I hope it can try and start making gains soon.
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"Chiri to kashinasai! Kore de... owari desu! HIEN MESSHOUJIN!!! Toki wa modoranai, sore ga sizen no setsuri." ~Presea Combatir
IkaMusume | Posted 11/23/2010 9:21:35 PM | message detail
ToS not dying as fast as I would like.

Eh, its dying fast enough. It'll die completely once we get out of the power hour and won't show any life again till the morning, but it should be down by at least a thousand by then so it won't matter.
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kinsho3 | Posted 11/23/2010 9:21:58 PM | message detail
GoW already on a cigarette break or something?
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It takes a genius to make something simple truly great.
Dr. Football, you are the man! I'll take you down next contest though...
EvilNcr | Posted 11/23/2010 9:22:30 PM | message detail
ToS isn't gonna roll and die until the power hour is finished at the very least.
I wouldn't be surprised if GoW had trouble breaking 51% during the match actually.
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"You have enemies? Good. That means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life." ~ Winston Churchill
Achromatic | Posted 11/23/2010 9:23:01 PM | message detail
and I think we can all give a round of applause to half-life 2 making round 4.
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Sir Chris
SuperAngelo128 | Posted 11/23/2010 9:24:03 PM | message detail
hey PreseaCombatir aka TeamRocketElite have you played the Japanese version of Symphonia?

or did you just like a Hi-ougi/Mystic Arte video
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~ Ange
no heroickrauss bullying topic i see. feels wrong, board viewing experience feels lesser
charmander6000 | Posted 11/23/2010 9:24:41 PM | message detail
and I think we can all give a round of applause to half-life 2 making round 4.

It could choke.

Maybe
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 68/76 Today's Matches: GoW & HL2
kinsho3 | Posted 11/23/2010 9:25:19 PM | message detail
Yeah, this match looks pretty good for HL2...but let's wait and see if HL2 beats GTA3 into the ground before giving it the bye....
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It takes a genius to make something simple truly great.
Dr. Football, you are the man! I'll take you down next contest though...
charmander6000 | Posted 11/23/2010 9:25:30 PM | message detail
Lead change coming to an update near you.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 68/76 Today's Matches: GoW & HL2
nintendogirl1 (Moderator) | Posted 11/23/2010 9:25:31 PM | message detail
Slow and steady.
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Plod.
TheCodeisBosco | Posted 11/23/2010 9:25:59 PM | message detail
That's what I like to see!

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CURRENT GOTY SCORE: 69
save_us.kratos
PreseaCombatir | Posted 11/23/2010 9:27:16 PM | message detail
I haven't played the Japanese version of ToS. I got the quotation from a hi-ougi video.
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"Chiri to kashinasai! Kore de... owari desu! HIEN MESSHOUJIN!!! Toki wa modoranai, sore ga sizen no setsuri." ~Presea Combatir
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/23/2010 9:27:44 PM | message detail
Anyways, this is the last update that I will see tonight before going to sleep. When I wake up in the morning, I expect to see GoW in the lead.

ToS loses a little bit of percentage in Europe and ToS is also losing ground in NA. GoW's best chance of winning should come from GoW taking the lead in NA rather than GoW winning Europe, Asia, and Oceania.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!
HaRRicH | Posted 11/23/2010 9:28:57 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
PreseaCombatir | Posted 11/23/2010 9:29:47 PM | message detail
Why GTA:SA?
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"Chiri to kashinasai! Kore de... owari desu! HIEN MESSHOUJIN!!! Toki wa modoranai, sore ga sizen no setsuri." ~Presea Combatir
HaRRicH | Posted 11/23/2010 9:29:51 PM | message detail
This match makes GTA:SA look really good, somehow...don't ask questions.
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http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg
http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg
charmander6000 | Posted 11/23/2010 9:29:52 PM | message detail
ToS loses a little bit of percentage in Europe and ToS is also losing ground in NA. GoW's best chance of winning should come from GoW taking the lead in NA rather than GoW winning Europe, Asia, and Oceania.

I just noticed that ToS has the lead in NA. I know Canada likes the game, but it seems to be leading in the US too.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 68/76 Today's Matches: GoW & HL2
LOLContests | Posted 11/23/2010 9:30:18 PM | message detail
Weird state by state results last match. I was going through them, and Okami was outdoing the US score in almost every state I came to in the beginning, across all regions. It ended up being that MM9 held up great in the Rust Belt (and NJ/NY for some reason) and the big states inf the former (IL, MI, OH, PA) were able to help out its score. Did pretty well in the Midwest too, though that's not many votes, at least compared to the states where Okami was owning.
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Dr. Football beat me, Yesmar in the 2010 Guru Contest!
charmander6000 | Posted 11/23/2010 9:30:28 PM | message detail
Stall.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 68/76 Today's Matches: GoW & HL2
nintendogirl1 (Moderator) | Posted 11/23/2010 9:30:49 PM | message detail
Goddammit this contest.
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FFFFF-
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/23/2010 9:31:05 PM | message detail
This match makes SA look pretty bad. It basically proves that the LFF in the ToS/GoW/SA match was minimal at best, and SA really just isn't very strong.

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DFF
PreseaCombatir | Posted 11/23/2010 9:31:56 PM | message detail
20 vote Field Barrier!
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"Chiri to kashinasai! Kore de... owari desu! HIEN MESSHOUJIN!!! Toki wa modoranai, sore ga sizen no setsuri." ~Presea Combatir
HaRRicH | Posted 11/23/2010 9:32:28 PM | message detail
It was more of a joke since they both faced GTA:SA in the same match -- I'm looking for any reason to support GTA:SA at this point. GTA3 better give me a legitimate reason tomorrow!
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/23/2010 9:32:41 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #194
This match makes SA look pretty bad. It basically proves that the LFF in the ToS/GoW/SA match was minimal at best, and SA really just isn't very strong.


I could have told you San Andreas was garbage before this match.
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TF2beatsBatman | Posted 11/23/2010 9:33:31 PM | message detail

From: nintendogirl1 | #165
If GoW can be cutting in the Power Hour, it's hard to see this as a ToS win.


Pretty much this
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_foolmo_
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greatone10 | Posted 11/23/2010 9:34:36 PM | message detail
If anything, it looks like the LFF hurt Oblivion more than anyone else, given the way Oblivion pulled way ahead of TOS in the second round.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/23/2010 9:35:05 PM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #197
I could have told you San Andreas was garbage before this match.


BLACK TURTLE COULD HAVE TOLD YOU THAT
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