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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 952

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Big Bob | Posted 11/22/2010 10:58:27 PM | message detail
Stats fixed. Halo with 41.28% prediction.
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trannyscience | Posted 11/22/2010 11:02:38 PM | message detail
#50 on the leaderboard, not even Luster can hold me down
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xyzzy
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/22/2010 11:04:58 PM | message detail
Well done! Kinda doubt I'll be seeing the top 50 this time around.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/22/2010 11:05:34 PM | message detail
Oh wait, my speed bracket made it before the Deus Ex match.

ALWAYS A WINNER
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transients | Posted 11/22/2010 11:06:18 PM | message detail
best part - my real bracket has god of war while that one has Tales. I'm leaderboard-bound no matter what!
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xyzzy
transients | Posted 11/22/2010 11:06:33 PM | message detail
that's right Luster. I made different brackets.
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xyzzy
Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 11/22/2010 11:09:47 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
66------25----------96.00
65------30----------83.33
64------106--------73.58
63------198--------68.18
62------336--------62.50
61------522--------61.30
60------760--------61.84
59------1086------64.00
58------1293------59.63
57------1507------58.39
56------1656------55.01
55------1785------51.48
54------1948------49.79
53------1979------46.18
52------1915------43.29
51------1967------43.67
50------1940------40.93
49------1805------39.06
48------1741------38.71
47------1563------35.64
46------1386------36.29
45------1161------36.52
44------970--------38.45
43------812--------33.74
42------640--------35.00
41------452--------34.51
40------359--------38.72
39------293--------37.54
38------198--------37.88
37------188--------37.23
36------128--------39.06
35------89----------38.20
34------75----------36.00
33------50----------38.00
32------44----------38.64
31------28----------25.00
30------28----------32.14
29------15----------53.33
28------13----------46.15
27------10----------50.00
26------9------------55.56
25------5------------60.00
24------7------------28.57
23------8------------37.50
22------9------------33.33
21------4------------50.00
20------12----------66.67
19------5------------60.00
18------6------------16.67
17------5------------60.00
16------2------------50.00
15------7------------28.57
14------7------------42.86
13------11----------36.36
12------10----------60.00
11------10----------60.00
10------17----------52.94
9--------5------------60.00
8--------8------------87.50
7--------3------------33.33
6--------2------------100.00
5--------5------------0.00
4--------3------------0.00
3--------3------------0.00
2--------9------------22.22
1--------25----------4.00
0--------16----------0.00

That looks a lot better. We lose just one -4 this time as opposed to all of them. The -5s and -6s don't do too badly and manage to stay above 70. From there prediction percentage fades in a pretty normal fashion.

We actually lose more people on the Top 50 compared to Ninja Gaiden winning. 5 people fell off the Top 50. BrokenBokken, Vlodd, Strykr017, shadow0knight and stubbyg did not have Halo beating Halo 3.
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TheCodeisBosco | Posted 11/22/2010 11:14:09 PM | message detail
I remember there being some talk of DMC3 > Metroid Prime pre-contest.

...did anyone actually take that upset? >_>

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CURRENT GOTY SCORE: 65
LOL DEVIL MAY CRY
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/22/2010 11:14:22 PM | message detail
My speed bracket has so many bad mistakes. I have Ratchet and Clank winning. I have Phoenix Wright winning. I have GTAIV winning. I have Braid winning twice. Despite predicting UC2 correctly, it's still two points behind my main bracket. It's definitely worse.

I think everyone should make a quick "gut reaction" bracket and leave it alone. Then, when that bracket scores fewer points for most of the board, maybe we'll think before yelling at each other for PEER PRESSURE I WOULD HAVE HAD A PERFECT SCORE WITHOUT PEER PRESSURE.
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Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world!
transients | Posted 11/22/2010 11:17:33 PM | message detail
yep, that's what I do. that bracket is at 64 points for me. I picked freaking Animal Crossing. I also took Demon's Souls two rounds. (that one I really don't get - I think I just didn't see Okami or something)
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xyzzy
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/22/2010 11:18:59 PM | message detail
Man, Devil May Cry 3 is bad. This also says some bad things about KOTOR, I think, especially if DMC3 = DMC1.
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/22/2010 11:19:11 PM | message detail
I think I did pretty well with gut reactions back before we started 4-ways. Seem to remember I generally made very few changes after the first 2 days- I think my 189/192 bracket in 2004 was fixed after 2 days, if I remember correctly. Since 4-ways......I've felt like I've made a ton of errors in every contest, but that's the way 4-ways work, I suppose. With this contest, I made a ton of changes to my bracket, because I had very little idea what a lot of the games even were, so my gut reaction was useless there.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
transients | Posted 11/22/2010 11:20:01 PM | message detail
DMC1 rocks 3. don't think you'll find too many people going the other way.
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xyzzy
Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 11/22/2010 11:21:56 PM | message detail
My speed bracket is at 57 points. I had TF2, SA2 and SMS advancing to Round 3. I have SMS over F3 in Round 4. People can complain to me all they want that I should think for myself but that's clearly a road to disaster. <_<
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"Let me believe what you've always believed! That living is wonderful!"
"Thank you so much... Thank you for loving me."
TheCodeisBosco | Posted 11/22/2010 11:22:24 PM | message detail
This also says some bad things about KOTOR, I think, especially if DMC3 = DMC1.

KotOR's path is basically set in stone anyway, though, so it's not too big a deal in my opinion. I can't really see it losing to Fire Emblem... but then again, GBAFEAR is looking pretty legit!

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CURRENT GOTY SCORE: 65
LOL DEVIL MAY CRY
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/22/2010 11:25:16 PM | message detail
Yeah, I doubt anyone will argue DMC3>1 now.
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VaultBoyAlbion | Posted 11/22/2010 11:42:53 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
VaultBoyAlbion | Posted 11/22/2010 11:43:34 PM | message detail
Also someone mentioned that Prime does about equal at night and day... How is this? Its all NA power, and does really bad in Europe and Asia... and there are significantly more votes coming from NA during the day. How could it do as well at night?
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Azp2k32 | Posted 11/22/2010 11:44:00 PM | message detail
TRAAANNNNNNNYYYYYYYYY
you lucky sole 66er on the top 50
you
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"I submitted brackets on all [224] of my accounts so they would get the 10 free Karma for beating SBAllen's score." - Luster Soldier
The Real Truth | Posted 11/23/2010 12:16:15 AM | message detail
PartOfYourWorld
Posted 11/22/2010 11:25:16 PM
message detail
Yeah, I doubt anyone will argue DMC3>1 now.


Yeah I already said 1 is stronger than 3, long ago.

I'm pretty sure RE1 was stronger than 2.
DKC was stronger than DKC2.
Sonic 1 was stronger than the other Sonic's (I think).
And then just recently you have Halo 1 which is stronger than 3.

Though I'm actually really disappointed with the results here today. I mean, really. I let myself forget that people hate difficult games, regardless of how much fun they are. Oh well, no more bias from here on out.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/23/2010 12:20:35 AM | message detail
I hope you guys are aware this match further proves Melee is going to torch Brawl.
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The Real Truth | Posted 11/23/2010 12:25:17 AM | message detail
I'm more aware of my disappointment for the taste of this site. I mean, winning is one thing, but DMC3 is getting massacred here.
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The Real Truth | Posted 11/23/2010 12:25:37 AM | message detail
in the*
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Justin_Crossing | Posted 11/23/2010 12:25:58 AM | message detail
ulti i hope you are aware the relevance of this match to that match is minimal
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Azp2k32 | Posted 11/23/2010 12:26:53 AM | message detail
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Melee_vs_Diablo_II_vs_Wind_Waker_vs_Halo_2009
has this been posted yet
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"I submitted brackets on all [224] of my accounts so they would get the 10 free Karma for beating SBAllen's score." - Luster Soldier
Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 11/23/2010 12:51:13 AM | message detail
Also someone mentioned that Prime does about equal at night and day... How is this? Its all NA power, and does really bad in Europe and Asia... and there are significantly more votes coming from NA during the day. How could it do as well at night?

It's due to having a very good power hour. It's more important in night matches due to the lower vote total and it makes up for being overall weaker in night hours outside of the power hour.
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"Let me believe what you've always believed! That living is wonderful!"
"Thank you so much... Thank you for loving me."
VaultBoyAlbion | Posted 11/23/2010 12:56:14 AM | message detail
Wouldn't it also have a power hour (though a diluted one) in the day, though? Maybe if you look at it from a 24 hour perspective, it might look even, but I'd still give the edge to Prime in a day match since it'll have a power hour + the increased votes from NA.
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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 11/23/2010 1:16:50 AM | message detail
Ha, Husky pimping Starcraft again in another contest. We're going to have to be careful about it the next time here.
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Dr Football and Snake have won this round, but Sephiroth will rise again!
VaultBoyAlbion | Posted 11/23/2010 2:03:36 AM | message detail
Man, if Prime beats Half Life 2, that board vote against Fallout 3 will be so lopsided.
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VaultBoyAlbion | Posted 11/23/2010 2:54:47 AM | message detail
And theres a cut! Been a while since I saw a cut in a 65-35 match..
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 11/23/2010 4:20:01 AM | message detail
And Metroid impresses again.

For those who didn't see it in the Analysis Crew topic, I pity voted for DMC3. Yeah.
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Next Games Up - StarCraft, Star Fox 64, Super Smash Bros. Melee
Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 11/23/2010 4:20:53 AM | message detail
Man I saw the first stats by TRE and when I saw Ninja Gaiden and less than 5% I thought what the hell is going on here?But they fixed this.Still because it is a same series match less than 42% sounds right.
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HaRRicH | Posted 11/23/2010 4:30:33 AM | message detail
DMC3's made this a lot more respectable now...but the series still looks pretty weak here. It'll be fun to see if Okami can give a more legitimate scare to MP later today.
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transience | Posted 11/23/2010 4:47:10 AM | message detail
Prime seems like a big power hour game. Okami should be like that too. I wonder how that first hour goes...
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xyzzy
charmander6000 | Posted 11/23/2010 5:07:11 AM | message detail
Wouldn't it also have a power hour (though a diluted one) in the day, though? Maybe if you look at it from a 24 hour perspective, it might look even, but I'd still give the edge to Prime in a day match since it'll have a power hour + the increased votes from NA.

It obviously only works in a 24 hour match for resaons you just said. It's like saying FFVII is about equal in the night/day.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 64/72 Today's Matches: Metroid Prime & Okami
charmander6000 | Posted 11/23/2010 6:11:31 AM | message detail
Match LXX: (12) Mega Man 9 vs. (4) Okami

Last Round

Demon’s Souls – 47.00%
Mega Man 9 – 53.00%

Okami – 71.41%
No More Heroes – 28.59%

Analysis

Mega Man 9 was able to use its name brand to sneak into this match, but Okami is a whole different monster. I know the game showed to have some strength last contest, but to actually see it break 70% on an opponent is quite the sight. I think a few people argued for Mega Man 9, but after seeing their match’s last round I think they have all quiet down.

Demon’s Souls was always going to be weak, that match last round was more about who sucked less. While Mega Man 9 is the strongest downloadable game that isn’t saying much, just take a look what happened to Braid against Persona 4. Okami and even Amaterasu have proven from time to time that they do have strength and while the board doesn’t fully understand why they are smart enough to know that the game is going to cruise this match.

I see Okami breaking 60% in this match. Name brand can get you some votes, but at the same time to have any decent strength your game has to well liked and played. Mega Man titles have never been the strongest in a contest setting and Mega Man 9 is nowhere near the strongest title.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Okami > Mega Man 9

charmander6000’s Prediction: Okami wins, 61.31% - 38.69%

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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 64/72 Today's Matches: Metroid Prime & Okami
Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 11/23/2010 6:15:02 AM | message detail
Okami is a stronger game than DMC3..but not by much. I'd say okami does better on Prime because it was on the wii as well. Okami is basicaly just one game. Hugely respected sure but it's still 1 game.

SOTC/Okami would be one hell of a match though imo.
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voltch | Posted 11/23/2010 6:16:29 AM | message detail
so what was i thinking when i picked DMC3 to win the div?
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Uguu~
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 11/23/2010 6:17:35 AM | message detail
Random question: Is there anyone here who actually somehow liked Other M more than Prime? I certainly didn't.

And man, this pic...the glory days of Samus, before we knew that she was awfully immature and plagued with daddy issues. The memories. For what its worth Prime is the only game this contest that I've played to completion within the last quarter of a year or so (though I'm currently playing through Majora's Mask, and beforehand it was...Sonic Adventure 2. Yeah).
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/23/2010 6:18:06 AM | message detail
Personally I think Okami has a great chance at breaking 40% on Metroid Prime.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 64/72 Today's Matches: Metroid Prime & Okami
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/23/2010 6:19:56 AM | message detail

From: voltch | #386
so what was i thinking when i picked DMC3 to win the div?


Good question!
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voltch | Posted 11/23/2010 6:29:34 AM | message detail
So guys, I have Sunshine to div finals, DMC3 winning this div and ToS to the div finals.
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mii~
FFI3_Lightning | Posted 11/23/2010 6:45:22 AM | message detail

From: LinkMarioSamus | #389
Random question: Is there anyone here who actually somehow liked Other M more than Prime? I certainly didn't.

And man, this pic...the glory days of Samus, before we knew that she was awfully immature and plagued with daddy issues. The memories. For what its worth Prime is the only game this contest that I've played to completion within the last quarter of a year or so (though I'm currently playing through Majora's Mask, and beforehand it was...Sonic Adventure 2. Yeah).


Of course there is. Just go to other M board. Though those are people who hated Prime. If you did a 1v1 poll right now Prime could easily quadruple Other M. Other M if it came out last year wouldn't even be in this contest...maybe not even in the vote ins.
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pjbasis | Posted 11/23/2010 6:54:20 AM | message detail
Okami breaking 60% is debatable?

My oracle says 68%...oh boy.
Guess I'm thinking No More Heroes is only a little weaker than Mega Man 9.
draarrowgant | Posted 11/23/2010 7:18:27 AM | message detail
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/23/2010 3:20:35 AM | message detail
I hope you guys are aware this match further proves Melee is going to torch Brawl.


I hope you are wrong, but how does this match prove so? Samus was in both and Dante/DMC has relatively little to do with either.... it was only on PS2 and PC, nothing to do with GC/Wii... please elaborate.

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Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/23/2010 7:20:49 AM | message detail
I wonder what possible parallels could be drawn between Metroid Prime and SSBM. >.>

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http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56817040
Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 11/23/2010 7:22:20 AM | message detail
They are both on Gamecube. But that's irrelevant since Sunshine is arguably the flop of the contest so far.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/23/2010 7:22:35 AM | message detail
DMC > DMC3 or something dumb like that.

I think someone needs to tell him that Melee wasn't the first game in the series. >_>
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 64/72 Today's Matches: Metroid Prime & Okami
charmander6000 | Posted 11/23/2010 7:23:44 AM | message detail
But that's irrelevant since Sunshine is arguably the flop of the contest so far.

No it wasn't, it did exactly what it was suppose to do.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 64/72 Today's Matches: Metroid Prime & Okami
pjbasis | Posted 11/23/2010 7:25:25 AM | message detail
Everything does exactly as it's supposed to do.

So that means nothing.