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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 952

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EvilNcr | Posted 11/22/2010 1:08:45 PM | message detail
Personally, I believe Portal is looking misleadingly strong.
It beat Gears of War 2 pretty bad. GEARS OF WAR 2. You know, the one with the original game (likely stronger like Halo's proving today) being embarrassed 60-40 by Paper Mario.

I really believe its performance is very deceiving. As well as FFXII's performance because we have no f***ing clue how Crisis Core ranks in terms of power. As far as we know, it could have been a 3rd round match or division finals had they been placed differently.
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Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 11/22/2010 1:12:41 PM | message detail
Isn't Half Life 2 stronger than Portal?
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HaRRicH | Posted 11/22/2010 1:13:07 PM | message detail

From: EvilNcr | #151
Personally, I believe Portal is looking misleadingly strong.
It beat Gears of War 2 pretty bad. GEARS OF WAR 2. You know, the one with the original game (likely stronger like Halo's proving today) being embarrassed 60-40 by Paper Mario.

I really believe its performance is very deceiving. As well as FFXII's performance because we have no f***ing clue how Crisis Core ranks in terms of power. As far as we know, it could have been a 3rd round match or division finals had they been placed differently.


I agree here. Portal has to be the favorite and man am I rooting for it, but what we've seen has been deceptive. It was never going to be a blow-out and will still likely be fairly close.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/22/2010 1:13:20 PM | message detail
FFXII>Portal was a fine pick, and no one argued that it was stupid before the bracket closed. Calling it stupid now is a fine example of revisionist history.
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ctesjbuvf | Posted 11/22/2010 1:13:29 PM | message detail
I believe in Final Fantasy XII>Portal. I feel 75% safe on that one.
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ctesjbuvf | Posted 11/22/2010 1:14:56 PM | message detail

From: Lord_Yggdrassil | #152
Isn't Half Life 2 stronger than Portal?


I'd say without a doubt.
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HaRRicH | Posted 11/22/2010 1:17:12 PM | message detail

From: Lord_Yggdrassil | #152
Isn't Half Life 2 stronger than Portal?


It was last year by a little bit, but since then two million free copies of Portal were given out and Portal 2's been announced. It's hard to say which is stronger now from what we've seen so far, but GTA3 and FF12 will help better gauge this comparison than L4D2 and Gears 2 have.
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voltch | Posted 11/22/2010 1:17:55 PM | message detail
FFXII>Portal was never stupid, more of an upset special.
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HaRRicH | Posted 11/22/2010 1:18:59 PM | message detail
Also, does Luster now have twenty-eight brackets on the battle-leaderboard?
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transients | Posted 11/22/2010 1:19:44 PM | message detail
I expect they'll all be going away today.
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voltch | Posted 11/22/2010 1:20:29 PM | message detail
he had halo 3?
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ctesjbuvf | Posted 11/22/2010 1:21:45 PM | message detail
Luster has Halo 1.
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Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 11/22/2010 1:21:49 PM | message detail
IF you say without a doubt then FFXII>Portal is a possibility. Especially at night. It's going to be a closer than people think. Ideally Both lose to Mass Effect though. I hope.
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transients | Posted 11/22/2010 1:21:49 PM | message detail
probably Mario.
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Greyfeld | Posted 11/22/2010 1:23:24 PM | message detail
FF12>Portal was never a "stupid" pick per se... no more stupid than SMS>Halo3 or SA2>SF4 were. But that doesn't mean some of us can't regret making the pick, regardless.

Also, as I said, assuming the favorite wins, it's still not going to be a blowout. As a night match, I fully expect FF12 to put up a decent fight.
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HaRRicH | Posted 11/22/2010 1:23:27 PM | message detail
Battle-challenge won't let him pick Mario this round, though that would definitely hurt his brackets.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/22/2010 1:32:21 PM | message detail

From: Greyfeld | #165
FF12>Portal was never a "stupid" pick per se... no more stupid than SMS>Halo3 or SA2>SF4 were. But that doesn't mean some of us can't regret making the pick, regardless.


Unlike today's Halo 3 > Halo match, I don't regret FF12 > Portal at all, and I still have faith in it.
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Greyfeld | Posted 11/22/2010 1:33:18 PM | message detail
Well, as they say, hindsight's a b****.
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Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 11/22/2010 1:34:31 PM | message detail
I can't believe i had Sunshine to Finals. Truly an embarassing showing. Mario should be ashamed.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/22/2010 1:36:18 PM | message detail
Boy, you're really stuck on this Portal > FF12 thing, huh?
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kinsho3 | Posted 11/22/2010 1:39:35 PM | message detail
Yeah Evilncr did bring up a great point...how strong is Gears of War 2 despite the fact that it won a vote-in? The fact that Paper Mario chewed up its older brother is not a good sign

Man, this match has me more worried than GTA/Golden Sun...
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Greyfeld | Posted 11/22/2010 1:41:22 PM | message detail
Boy, you're really stuck on this Portal > FF12 thing, huh?

Says the person that's still stuck on FF12>Portal.
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695924 | Posted 11/22/2010 1:41:24 PM | message detail
For GTA SA vs GS I went in thinking SA would 60-40. Then I found out Dark Dawn comes out on the match day. Yeah.

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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/22/2010 1:45:10 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/22/2010 1:45:49 PM | message detail
Several people in the thread have said FF12 > Portal could happen, and yet you're still going on like Portal > FF12 is a foregone conclusion. Portal is the favorite, no one is disputing that, but its not FF12 > Portal is a silly pick, no matter how many times you drum on about it.

Christ, dude. This f***ing thread.
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shane15 | Posted 11/22/2010 1:46:55 PM | message detail
FF12 will beat Portal.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/22/2010 1:47:12 PM | message detail
NoDicePwn
Posted 11/22/2010 3:26:12 PM
message detail

Mega Man 9 is not that strong

who are you and what have you done with black turtle


I never said Mega Man 9 would light any fires. It will lose comfortably to Okami this round. It just boggled my mind that people thought an obscure PS3 exclusive would beat it. I really wish someone had taken my up on my account bet offer for that match.
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transients | Posted 11/22/2010 1:50:58 PM | message detail
MM9 got like 53%, right? sounds like you should have been surprised that a debatable match was indeed debatable, not everyone else.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/22/2010 1:51:43 PM | message detail
Who are you talking to, tran?
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Greyfeld | Posted 11/22/2010 1:52:09 PM | message detail
Yeah Evilncr did bring up a great point...how strong is Gears of War 2 despite the fact that it won a vote-in? The fact that Paper Mario chewed up its older brother is not a good sign

That's a good point, though for FF12=Portal to be true, Crisis Core would have to about double Gears 2. I don't know about you, but I wouldn't take CC to double much of anything.
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transients | Posted 11/22/2010 1:52:37 PM | message detail
you probably have him ignored :)
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xyzzy
transients | Posted 11/22/2010 1:53:33 PM | message detail
regarding Portal: I don't know it could have been more impressive. I don't know how you can have faith in FF12 there. can it win? absolutely. should you feel good about it? no.
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Greyfeld | Posted 11/22/2010 1:56:19 PM | message detail
Several people in the thread have said FF12 > Portal could happen, and yet you're still going on like Portal > FF12 is a foregone conclusion. Portal is the favorite, no one is disputing that, but its not FF12 > Portal is a silly pick, no matter how many times you drum on about it.

I don't think it's going to be a blowout (I don't think we'll see this go 60/40 or anything like that), but Portal looks like the clear favorite from where I'm sitting.

For the record, I'm not saying FF12 > Portal COULDN'T happen. Afterall, it's a night match, and Portal is still a slip of a game.

Also, as I said, assuming the favorite wins, it's still not going to be a blowout. As a night match, I fully expect FF12 to put up a decent fight.


Hmmm and here I thought I was making it blatantly clear that I was giving FF12 a fair shot, despite Portal being the favorite. I think you really need to cool your jets and stop taking my comments as personal attacks, when it's obvious that they were never intended to be such.
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lightsout06 | Posted 11/22/2010 2:07:56 PM | message detail
I picked FFXII>Portal and never looked back. Yeah it will be close but FF will edge it out.
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EvilNcr | Posted 11/22/2010 2:15:30 PM | message detail

From: Greyfeld | #180
That's a good point, though for FF12=Portal to be true, Crisis Core would have to about double Gears 2. I don't know about you, but I wouldn't take CC to double much of anything.


Would you believe Halo 1 > 3 to be a great indicator of how strong Halo 1 is?
I personally don't consider SFF matches to be a good indicator of strength anyway. Like for example, how Link always embarrassed Mario so badly despite Mario being very strong. And since we don't even have any idea of how strong it is, it's even more of a mysterious performance. It won 55-45 over Crisis Core... we're all simply guessing Crisis Core's strenght and its the SFF factor of the match.

My main point is that Gears of War is pretty damn weak on GameFAQs. Every indicator of that game seems to point it towards being really weak. Like for example that poll : http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=27
I don't like 4 way matches because it's a very vague indicator but we have little stats on that one except Marcus Fenix's lackluster performances, the 4-way matchup and Gears of War being eaten alive by Paper Mario.

http://oraclechallenge.com/profiles.php?type=competitors&id=284

I wouldn't be surprised if it really did turn out to be noticeably weaker than SotC.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/22/2010 2:26:14 PM | message detail
Oh, so Board 8 is doing their moths to the flame thing. No wonder trolls never leave this place.
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Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/22/2010 2:32:49 PM | message detail
Hmm, I feel like some dodgy x-stating is in order!

Let's assume Gears of War = Gears of War 2 (chances are the original is slightly stronger, which helps FFXII at the end a little).
Gears of War 2 got 28.53% on Portal.
Gears of War got 29.2% on Kingdom Hearts II.
Portal is projected to get 48.8% on Kingdom Hearts II!
Final Fantasy XII got 37.7% on Twilight Princess.
Assuming Twilight Princess = Kingdom Hearts II, Portal is projected to get 61.4% on Final Fantasy XII!

The poll in which Gears of War got 29.2% on Kingdom Hearts II contained RE4 and SotC, which I doubt affect KHII more than GoW.

Final Fantasy XII needs a big combination of a) Twilight Princess being stronger than Kingdom Hearts II and b) Gears of War 2 to be significantly weaker than Gears of War to level things up. It does probably have a favourable match time too. Even supposing a) and b) combine to buy it 6%, and the match time grants it another 1%, it still loses easily.

(Yes, I know there's lots of assumptions and projections here - don't kill me. I enjoy moving the numbers around.)

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Greyfeld | Posted 11/22/2010 2:35:06 PM | message detail
Would you believe Halo 1 > 3 to be a great indicator of how strong Halo 1 is?

No, but that's not exactly the same thing. What if you took God of War 3 against Chains of Olympus? Or Assassin's Creed 2 against Bloodlines? Those would be closer to what we're looking at. A main line game with a widespread audience that isn't the most popular in the series, against a spinoff game on the PSP.

I personally don't consider SFF matches to be a good indicator of strength anyway.

Against other games? Of course not. But they're perfect matches to look at franchise hierarchy. I think having the FF7 name is going to make CC more popular than your average mediocre handheld JRPG. However, in a potential SFF blowout match, if you can't break 60/40 on a spinoff from your own franchise, you're kind of in trouble for future matches.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/22/2010 2:38:35 PM | message detail
Not sure if anyone has brought this up, but based on what we're seeing right now (Halo 3 taking the ASV), do you guys think the night match helps Melee?
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ctesjbuvf | Posted 11/22/2010 2:54:37 PM | message detail
t might actually help melee a lot good point, (please be a weekend match.
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creativename | Posted 11/22/2010 3:03:08 PM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #023
and I definitely think that series goes 64 > Brawl > Melee.


-_-

Melee is the Halo 2 of Smash

Everyone overlooked this, but BT is actually correct about this part - the Halo/Halo 3, Melee/Brawl comparison doesn't work at all. Largely because Melee isn't even Halo, it's Halo 2 - Melee *is* the sequel. But the completely different hierarchies, with Halo>Halo 3>=Halo 2 probably, vs. Melee=Brawl>>>SSB, show just how the series are completely different. There is absolutely nothing for Melee/Brawl to be drawn from Halo beating Halo 3.



From: EvilNcr | #151
Personally, I believe Portal is looking misleadingly strong.
It beat Gears of War 2 pretty bad. GEARS OF WAR 2. You know, the one with the original game (likely stronger like Halo's proving today) being embarrassed 60-40 by Paper Mario.

I really believe its performance is very deceiving. As well as FFXII's performance because we have no f***ing clue how Crisis Core ranks in terms of power. As far as we know, it could have been a 3rd round match or division finals had they been placed differently.


Yeah I agree. I'm fairly confident Gears 1 would get 55+% indirectly on Gears 2. I think Portal will beat FF12, but it should be fairly close. I expect low to mid 50's.

From: EvilNcr | #185
I personally don't consider SFF matches to be a good indicator of strength anyway. Like for example, how Link always embarrassed Mario so badly despite Mario being very strong.


I don't think that's a good example. I think that's only happened in multi-option polls where Mario was irrelevant. I'm not convinced Link SFFed Mario in 2k2, and if he did it was pretty minor. Yes SFF matches aren't good indicators of strength - but as we've never really seen any example of rSFF ever, it's questionable to try and say CC somehow got the SFF benefit here against FF12.

From: PartOfYourWorld | #189
Not sure if anyone has brought this up, but based on what we're seeing right now (Halo 3 taking the ASV), do you guys think the night match helps Melee?


Yes. I think older games in general would do better at night without the day vote, which likely skews much younger in age. But I don't think it would change the outcome. Though I don't expect a 60/40ing like some - I think the winner will get less than 55%.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/22/2010 3:08:27 PM | message detail
Gears lost all credibility to me when Rydia beat Marcus Fenix. I can't see FF12 losing to Portal
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kinsho3 | Posted 11/22/2010 3:10:10 PM | message detail
If you wanna argue SFF, that makes FFXII look worse. The fact that a mainstream FF couldn't blow away a spin-off is pretty damning no matter how you look it.

The best argument you can make for FF12 is that the pic of Zack and the FF7 name boosted CC several percentage points, which is plausible.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/22/2010 3:10:44 PM | message detail
Everyone overlooked this, but BT is actually correct about this part - the Halo/Halo 3, Melee/Brawl comparison doesn't work at all. Largely because Melee isn't even Halo, it's Halo 2 - Melee *is* the sequel. But the completely different hierarchies, with Halo>Halo 3>=Halo 2 probably, vs. Melee=Brawl>>>SSB, show just how the series are completely different. There is absolutely nothing for Melee/Brawl to be drawn from Halo beating Halo 3.

I strongly disagree. Based on anecdotal evidence (friends) and personal experience, Brawl > 64 > Melee from everyone that I know. I STILL have no idea where all the Melee faith comes from. Have we seen ANYTHING that points to Melee being stronger than 64 or Brawl? The fact that it got the 1 seed maybe. All of our stats show them being damn near identical, but Melee will fold when put directly against Brawl. This is Mario/Samus all over again.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/22/2010 3:11:19 PM | message detail

From: kinsho3 | #193
If you wanna argue SFF, that makes FFXII look worse. The fact that a mainstream FF couldn't blow away a spin-off is pretty damning no matter how you look it.

The best argument you can make for FF12 is that the pic of Zack and the FF7 name boosted CC several percentage points, which is plausible.


I would agree with this, if we haven't seen Zack kick ass in the character battles.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/22/2010 3:14:43 PM | message detail
BT blatantly ignoring everything that's happened in the contest that is just flat out screaming "BRAWL DOESN'T STAND A CHANCE" right in his face, I see.
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creativename | Posted 11/22/2010 3:18:57 PM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #194
Based on anecdotal evidence (friends) and personal experience, Brawl > 64 > Melee from everyone that I know.


I repeat...

-_-
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/22/2010 3:19:04 PM | message detail

From: creativename | #191
Everyone overlooked this, but BT is actually correct about this part - the Halo/Halo 3, Melee/Brawl comparison doesn't work at all. Largely because Melee isn't even Halo, it's Halo 2 - Melee *is* the sequel. But the completely different hierarchies, with Halo>Halo 3>=Halo 2 probably, vs. Melee=Brawl>>>SSB, show just how the series are completely different. There is absolutely nothing for Melee/Brawl to be drawn from Halo beating Halo 3.


No one cared about Smash before Melee. Melee = Halo 1.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/22/2010 3:22:11 PM | message detail
The best argument you can make for FFXII is that nothing Valve-related has looked that good. TF2 would have easily lost to Fable without rallying and then got stomped by Batman in a year where pretty much everything from 2009 has looked bad, Left 4 Dead got wrecked by God of War, Left 4 Dead 2 did well enough to make Half-Life 2 look bad while still being terrible, and Portal's 'impressive' win is offset by Gears of War proving that Marcus losing to Rydia wasn't a fluke.

Nobody should be surprised if FFXII beats Portal without struggling.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/22/2010 3:25:19 PM | message detail

From: ExThaNemesis | #196
BT blatantly ignoring everything that's happened in the contest that is just flat out screaming "BRAWL DOESN'T STAND A CHANCE" right in his face, I see.


What evidence pray tell?
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