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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 952

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Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 11/23/2010 9:36:39 AM | message detail
Also XFD@ MM in Europe. Okami would Double MM if this was a night match.
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Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 11/23/2010 9:38:37 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4138&region=GB

No wonder i've never come across any MM fans over here.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/23/2010 9:40:00 AM | message detail
Now that's just confusing.

I thought MM9 might buck the UK hatred of Mega Man given that it didn't do much worse on Demon's Souls but... What the hell?

I thought we loved Demon's Souls!
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MegatokyoEd | Posted 11/23/2010 9:42:25 AM | message detail
Demon's Souls didn't even come out in Europe until June of this year and it was published by Namco there.
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Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/23/2010 9:45:35 AM | message detail
Based off KOTOR/GTAIII, KOTOR/DMC and MP/DMC3 Half-Life 2 probably needs to get into the high 50s to be running with Metroid Prime.

Assume DMC3 = DMC.*
DMC got 41.95% on KOTOR.**
DMC3 got 35.39% on Metroid Prime.***
Metroid Prime is projected to get 58% on KOTOR.
GTAIII got 47.3% on KOTOR.****
Metroid Prime is projected to get 54.8% on GTAIII.

*This is disputed - most think DMC is stronger than DMC3, which would mean Metroid Prime gets less on GTAIII than it is projected to, and so would favour Half-Life 2.
**This was in a night match, and so over-rates DMC, which makes Metroid Prime look stronger than it is, which favours Half-Life 2.
***This was in a night match, and so over-rates DMC3, which makes Metroid Prime look weaker than it is, which favours Metroid Prime.
****The presence of Halo:CE and Diablo II in this match is normally thought to have hurt KOTOR more than GTAIII, which makes GTAIII look stronger than it is, which means Metroid Prime probably gets more on GTAIII than it is projected to.

Factors ** and *** should just cancel each other out. The strength of factors * and **** are probably not too different, but I suspect Metroid Prime benefits a little. The match between Metroid Prime and Half-Life 2 is a day match, which probably benefits Metroid Prime a little too. Thus I suspect Half-Life 2 needs to get into the high 50s (say, 58% plus) to be around Metroid Prime's level.

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I predict and analyse the Game of the Decade contest here:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56817040
Advokaiser | Posted 11/23/2010 9:48:32 AM | message detail
lol x-stats

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Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 11/23/2010 9:50:45 AM | message detail
yeah Atlus were pretty stupid to delay it and give it to bandai of all publishers. Though it did sell respectfully in US..probably Atlus' best selling game ever. No wonder Project Darkness is coming out on both consoles. Hopefully they do a better job of marketing.

I know about half a dozen people IRL who played DS and every single one of them imported it from US.





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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/23/2010 10:06:21 AM | message detail
Demon's Souls publishing story goes like this:

Sony: Hey, From Software, let's make this game.
From Software: Awesome! *makes Demon's Souls*
*Demon's Souls is released in Japan, does 'okay'*
From Software: So what about the rest of the world?
Sony: Eh. Not worth it.
From Software: ...Atlus?
Atlus: Can-do! *publishes Demon's Souls for an overseas release, Demon's Souls becomes a hit in NA and Europe*
Sony: So, hey! About Demon's Souls 2 for the PS2!
From Software: Piss off. *starts making Project Dark, which is totally not Demon's Souls 2 and is multiplatform*

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DFF
TheCodeisBosco | Posted 11/23/2010 10:19:00 AM | message detail
Mega Man 9's doing pretty well for itself, actually! That's nice to see. :D I was worried that it'd get pasted.

I'm feeling pretty good about Half-Life 2 winning this division. Metroid's performance against DMC3 wasn't awe-inspiring by any means.

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Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/23/2010 10:33:59 AM | message detail
Even the most questionable of x-stat analysis is less suspect than most of the conjecture that gets tossed around in here!

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I predict and analyse the Game of the Decade contest here:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56817040
Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 11/23/2010 11:03:49 AM | message detail
Where are the stats from TRE?I like reading them...
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melikepizza | Posted 11/23/2010 11:14:29 AM | message detail

From: Kotetsu534 | #455
Metroid Prime is projected to get 58% on KOTOR.
GTAIII got 47.3% on KOTOR.****
Metroid Prime is projected to get 54.8% on GTAIII.


I dont get this, surely MP would get more on GTA than its projected to on KOTOR if KOTOR>GTA?
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Advokaiser | Posted 11/23/2010 11:16:17 AM | message detail
I'm pretty surprised 71.69% went with Metroid Prime. I thought the casuals were going to have a much higher percentage, like 42-43%+.

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/23/2010 11:31:51 AM | message detail
Not sure what Ulti is talking about, Okami should get around 45% on Metroid Prime. Prime isn't that strong, and Okami isn't that weak. If Prime starts getting 60% in that match, that implies that Okami is near the fodder line, which I don't believe for a second given Amataersasu's performances in the past.
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Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 11/23/2010 11:41:00 AM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #464
Not sure what Ulti is talking about, Okami should get around 45% on Metroid Prime. Prime isn't that strong, and Okami isn't that weak. If Prime starts getting 60% in that match, that implies that Okami is near the fodder line, which I don't believe for a second given Amataersasu's performances in the past.


Or you're underrating Prime.
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TRE Public Account | Posted 11/23/2010 11:41:44 AM | message detail
Where are the stats from TRE?I like reading them...

Sometimes I can't be online for the start of a day match so my stats are late on those days. However, the stats pages seemed to have still been glitchy even after the fix so can't generate stats from them for the previous match. There are problems like:

After Halo vs Halo 3
Score-Brackets
2--------7
1--------24
0--------16

After MP vs DMC3
Score-Brackets
2--------8
1--------24
0--------16

We have more brackets with 2 or less points than we did a match ago. Somehow a bracket lost points.
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ctesjbuvf | Posted 11/23/2010 11:42:44 AM | message detail
Sorry Turtle, but Prime is better than that.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/23/2010 11:44:38 AM | message detail
Prime would do extremely well for itself to score 60% on Okami in a disadvantaged time frame. There's no guarantee at all that HL2 could match that.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/23/2010 11:56:32 AM | message detail
Exactly. I'm thinking HL2 and Prime are pretty damn close in strength, and I don't think either would be able to even come close to 60% on Okami. There's also the issue of if Metroid Prime breaks 60% on Okami, that means Demon Soul is potentially the weakest game in the bracket, which I'm not willing to accept.

Also, surprising to see MM9 doing so bad in South America, which is usually a bastion of strength for Mega Man games. Maybe because SA is typically a generation behind, Okami is probably pretty popular due to its PS2 release.
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TRE Public Account | Posted 11/23/2010 11:58:49 AM | message detail
Or I could just figure out that the problem was the extra Ninja Gaiden points weren't removed until the latest update, remove them myself and generate stats. >_>

Score-Brackets-% Right
68------24----------100.00
67------25----------100.00
66------79----------100.00
65------139--------97.12
64------237--------99.16
63------384--------95.31
62------592--------95.44
61------892--------95.18
60------1060------93.49
59------1265------93.12
58------1419------89.08
57------1536------89.19
56------1700------85.29
55------1765------82.55
54------1806------78.74
53------1922------75.18
52------1847------72.23
51------1783------69.10
50------1806------66.39
49------1664------62.32
48------1567------60.50
47------1389------58.60
46------1248------56.57
45------1042------56.05
44------842--------54.63
43------704--------50.28
42------579--------46.46
41------414--------46.62
40------300--------50.67
39------266--------42.11
38------187--------40.64
37------171--------44.44
36------121--------40.50
35------84----------38.10
34------69----------46.38
33------44----------36.36
32------40----------37.50
31------27----------29.63
30------28----------28.57
29------14----------14.29
28------13----------23.08
27------11----------18.18
26------6------------0.00
25------5------------0.00
24------7------------28.57
23------7------------0.00
22------11----------9.09
21------4------------0.00
20------10----------0.00
19------6------------0.00
18------6------------0.00
17------4------------25.00
16------3------------33.33
15------8------------25.00
14------7------------28.57
13------10----------20.00
12------9------------0.00
11------10----------0.00
10------18----------0.00
9--------5------------0.00
8--------7------------0.00
7--------3------------0.00
6--------2------------0.00
5--------5------------0.00
4--------4------------0.00
3--------3------------0.00
2--------8------------0.00
1--------25----------4.00
0--------16----------0.00

Pretty easy match. The -4s, -5s and -6s manage to go perfect. The -7s to -13s manage to stay above 90. The prediction percentage fades in an expected manner from there.

No one fell off the Top 50 this time.
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Dr_Football punted my bracket across the field.
Congrats to Dr_Football for winning the Character Battle 8 Guru Contest!
LOLContests | Posted 11/23/2010 12:00:15 PM | message detail
I'm thinking HL2 and Prime are pretty damn close in strength, and I don't think either would be able to even come close to 60% on Okami.

But I thought that Demon's Souls was horrible fodder? Surely Okami must be pretty weak if it would barely break 60% on it.
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Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/23/2010 12:00:33 PM | message detail
I made a mistake at the end (I multipled 58 by 47 instead of 42 by 47). The correct maths should be:

KOTOR gets 42% on MP.
GTAIII gets 47% on KOTOR.
MP is projected to get 60.5% on GTAIII.

That makes more sense! If you're backing HL2 to the QFs (or further) then you should start worrying if it doesn't hit that.

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I predict and analyse the Game of the Decade contest here:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56817040
Achromatic | Posted 11/23/2010 12:04:36 PM | message detail
I have metroid going to the quarters and losing to fallout 3 in my bracket so there has to be a tightrope act of barely beating HL2 and then losing to fallout 3
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Achromatic | Posted 11/23/2010 12:04:56 PM | message detail
...and that was oddly luster-like in my thought process.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/23/2010 12:08:12 PM | message detail
LOLContests
Posted 11/23/2010 3:00:15 PM
message detail

I'm thinking HL2 and Prime are pretty damn close in strength, and I don't think either would be able to even come close to 60% on Okami.

But I thought that Demon's Souls was horrible fodder? Surely Okami must be pretty weak if it would barely break 60% on it.


Did you even read that whole post?
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TRE Public Account | Posted 11/23/2010 12:16:41 PM | message detail
He was referring to how you used to constantly insist that Demon's Soul was horrible fodder.
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Dr_Football punted my bracket across the field.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/23/2010 12:31:34 PM | message detail
It still is pretty bad, but I don't think I ever said it was bottom-5 level fodder
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/23/2010 1:20:05 PM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/23/2010 2:56:32 PM | message detail
Also, surprising to see MM9 doing so bad in South America, which is usually a bastion of strength for Mega Man games. Maybe because SA is typically a generation behind, Okami is probably pretty popular due to its PS2 release.


It's more because Okami is also strong in South America. It seems like everything from Capcom that I know of is strong in South America.
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transients | Posted 11/23/2010 1:29:40 PM | message detail
so let's do this -- Okami vs. GTA3, what wins?
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ctesjbuvf | Posted 11/23/2010 1:30:59 PM | message detail
Okami does.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/23/2010 1:32:19 PM | message detail
Okami without looking back, but I expect a GTA to look better in defeat than an Okami would, so MP/Okami vs. HL2/GTA won't really be a fair comparison.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/23/2010 1:42:40 PM | message detail
transients
Posted 11/23/2010 4:29:40 PM
message detail

so let's do this -- Okami vs. GTA3, what wins?


I'll take Okami, but it's not going more than 52-48 either way.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/23/2010 1:45:57 PM | message detail
GTAIII. I'm not even sure if I'd take Mega Man 9 to beat LittleBigPlanet.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/23/2010 1:51:55 PM | message detail
PartOfYourWorld
Posted 11/23/2010 4:45:57 PM
message detail

GTAIII. I'm not even sure if I'd take Mega Man 9 to beat LittleBigPlanet.


Hilarious that despite everything we've seen to the contrary, you still stand by PS3 exclusives.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/23/2010 1:54:42 PM | message detail
GTAIII

LBP > MM9.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 64/72 Today's Matches: Metroid Prime & Okami
charmander6000 | Posted 11/23/2010 1:55:52 PM | message detail
Hilarious that despite everything we've seen to the contrary, you still stand by PS3 exclusives.

MM9 barely defeated a PS3 exclusive that is weak even between PS3 exclusives, LBP would crush DS.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 64/72 Today's Matches: Metroid Prime & Okami
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/23/2010 1:57:07 PM | message detail
I get the feeling that LBP might be stronger than Demon's Souls, and it doesn't need to be much stronger to give MM9 a fight (assuming there's no platformer/cutesy mascot main character SFF that gives Mega Man an edge).
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NoDicePwn | Posted 11/23/2010 1:59:35 PM | message detail
I would take LBP over Demon Souls, myself. Demon Souls just seems so... niche. LBP appeals to a much larger audience, even on Gamefaqs.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/23/2010 2:06:18 PM | message detail
Give me Okami there.

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DFF
Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/23/2010 2:09:07 PM | message detail
Are PS3 exclusives necessarily doing that badly?

- Demon's Souls looks to be worth ~ 40% on Okami. That's not bad for a difficult niche game.
- Valkyria Chronicles won as an underdog against the strongest game from a much bigger SRPG series.
- Uncharted 2's made it to round three despite being heavily doubted, and 2009 games in general looking crap (see MW2, which beat Uncharted 2 easily in the GOTYs, getting 55% on Dissidia).
- LBP got 38% on GTAIII, which is surely passable for a game that looked utter crap in '09.
- MGS4 got 63% on Assassin's Creed... we don't know how strong Assassin's Creed is.
- inFamous was awful.

So... two/three look to have done well, one/two looks to have made par, one we don't know, and one was awful.

---
I predict and analyse the Game of the Decade contest here:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56817040
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/23/2010 2:19:56 PM | message detail
Valkyria and UC2 have helped rebound the PS3 a bit. It can still look alright by the end, and honestly, it's not as though 360 exclusives have been rocking house. Wii has the two strongest exclusives of the gen by a really wide margin, though we've always known that.
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transients | Posted 11/23/2010 2:20:36 PM | message detail
yeah, that's true. LBP is stronger than Demon's Souls.
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xyzzy
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/23/2010 2:22:17 PM | message detail
PS3 exclusives are this year's version of the Winter 2010 first round Sonic Team panic. Relax. Uncharted 2 is probably still making the divisional final, and Assassin's Creed is probably a strong game.
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Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 11/23/2010 2:26:58 PM | message detail

From: NoDicePwn | #488
I would take LBP over Demon Souls, myself. Demon Souls just seems so... niche. LBP appeals to a much larger audience, even on Gamefaqs.




There is nothing niche about DS bar it's difficulty. It's pretty much a WRPG style game made by a small JPN dev team. If it was made by a bigger more established team and was multiplat it would be a really strong ass game. The difficulty is the only thing that might pull it towards the niche catagory but aesthetically it looks like one of those retro WRPG's on PC.
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Advokaiser | Posted 11/23/2010 2:32:30 PM | message detail
So...

Demon's Souls vs. Dead Space?

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charmander6000 | Posted 11/23/2010 2:34:09 PM | message detail
I don't think anyone can talk about Dead Space. We have nothing on it.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 64/72 Today's Matches: Metroid Prime & Okami
charmander6000 | Posted 11/23/2010 2:35:37 PM | message detail
Uncharted 2 is probably still making the divisional final

Because barely winning over SFIV was impressive?
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 64/72 Today's Matches: Metroid Prime & Okami
695924 | Posted 11/23/2010 2:35:50 PM | message detail
Is DS really that weak? I would take it over LBP though since it IS an RPG. Prolly 55-45.
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Advokaiser | Posted 11/23/2010 2:36:47 PM | message detail
Play Terranigma.

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SuperAngelo128 | Posted 11/23/2010 2:37:46 PM | message detail
*Batista Bombs Contest Stats and Discussion*
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