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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 951

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/21/2010 9:03:43 PM | message detail
Ouf, good thing I never pulled the trigger on that SA2 > UC2 upset. That woulda been painful. Still liking Halo next round (day match woo!)
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/21/2010 9:03:46 PM | message detail
This feels really crummy to say after the fact, but I honestly have no idea why people were so worried about this. I never even considered changing my battle pick.

Same here, I think it was mostly the SFIV fans pushing the game.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 60/68 Today's Matches: Uncharted 2 & Halo
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/21/2010 9:03:50 PM | message detail
I would've still taken LoD > SFIV before this match even started.

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DFF
ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/21/2010 9:04:06 PM | message detail
well like I said, my chances of winning were only marginally higher if I banked so whatevs.

Uncharted 2 is legit.

LoD is legit.


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NoDicePwn | Posted 11/21/2010 9:05:04 PM | message detail
I would've still taken LoD > SFIV before this match even started.

uh huh
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/21/2010 9:05:22 PM | message detail
Hey, maybe SFIV will end up stronger than LoD after all.

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DFF
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/21/2010 9:06:13 PM | message detail

From: NoDicePwn | #355
I would've still taken LoD > SFIV before this match even started.

uh huh


Yeah I've said so many times in the past. I just stayed out of the discussion for this match because I was busy and it has already descended into a bunch of SFIV fanboys hyping an improbable upset!

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DFF
transients | Posted 11/21/2010 9:06:20 PM | message detail
reminder: UC2 had 67% on LOD at the freeze
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xyzzy
Greyfeld | Posted 11/21/2010 9:06:59 PM | message detail
lol since when does KP EVER keep his mouth shut about a match?
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/21/2010 9:07:07 PM | message detail

From: transients | #358
reminder: UC2 had 67% on LOD at the freeze


can it drop 10% here plx
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pjbasis | Posted 11/21/2010 9:07:22 PM | message detail
Wow, and I was worried.
Damn, Dragoon coulda kicked some people's ass.
Draco1214 | Posted 11/21/2010 9:07:25 PM | message detail
That's because it was up against LoD. What wouldn't win the board vote against that?
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/21/2010 9:07:41 PM | message detail

From: transients | #358
reminder: UC2 had 67% on LOD at the freeze


I think that was a special case. Fable/TF2 was within 20 votes at the final update and everyone was F5ing the main page like nuts. I don't think Uncharted 2 is going to have a better board vote than SFIV (although it will have a better bracket vote).

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DFF
transients | Posted 11/21/2010 9:07:52 PM | message detail
trudat. this is still a pretty big bracket vote though. this'll get down to the mid-low 50s, I would guess.
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xyzzy
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/21/2010 9:09:22 PM | message detail
Plus, I imagine LoD would have one of the worst board votes in the contest. I still haven't found someone who actually likes it!

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DFF
ShatteredElysium | Posted 11/21/2010 9:10:08 PM | message detail
Well this sucks. Apparently the battle entry updates even if you don't tell it to. I had Uncharted pre-match. Then just before match started I change the drop down to SFIV just in case I decided to change band then could just hit update. Decided to stick to Uncharted so navigate to a different webpage without hitting update and now when I check on it, it has SFIV picked. Is that normal?

Didn't have mega loads riding on it but 15k is 15k.
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IkaMusume | Posted 11/21/2010 9:10:15 PM | message detail
dat board vote
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Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 11/21/2010 9:10:20 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
63------5------------20.00
62------36----------75.00
61------65----------47.69
60------205--------56.10
59------390--------55.64
58------667--------48.43
57------1082------41.40
56------1313------46.31
55------1581------42.88
54------1792------40.85
53------1961------41.76
52------2054------42.36
51------2059------41.72
50------2072------41.36
49------2094------41.79
48------2049------41.29
47------1911------39.93
46------1788------39.99
45------1560------43.14
44------1372------41.18
43------1099------41.67
42------910--------42.31
41------747--------45.11
40------557--------48.83
39------419--------41.29
38------336--------48.21
37------260--------42.69
36------182--------42.86
35------165--------42.42
34------108--------37.96
33------69----------37.68
32------64----------43.75
31------37----------27.03
30------30----------26.67
29------20----------30.00
28------21----------23.81
27------16----------31.25
26------12----------33.33
25------3------------0.00
24------6------------16.67
23------10----------20.00
22------10----------30.00
21------4------------0.00
20------8------------0.00
19------4------------0.00
18------9------------11.11
17------4------------25.00
16------4------------25.00
15------8------------25.00
14------6------------16.67
13------11----------9.09
12------9------------0.00
11------9------------11.11
10------19----------5.26
9--------6------------0.00
8--------8------------0.00
7--------4------------25.00
6--------3------------0.00
5--------5------------0.00
4--------3------------0.00
3--------2------------0.00
2--------9------------0.00
1--------26----------3.85
0--------16----------0.00

I can't say I expected this match to be the one to nearly wipe out the -3s. Batman as probably the favorite to win the 4 pack but it seems Fable and Team Fortress 2 really took a lot out of its prediction percentage. The -4s do really well but I think that's mostly Luster skewing the statistics. The -6 and -7s manage to break 50. Other than that the prediction percentage is fairly consistantly in the low 40s until you go far down the chart.

Round 2 double the points so even if you're near the top, you'll fall off if you get a match wrong. 16 people fell off the Top 50 this time. Former third place Rializer, Popcornball, darclogan, ryjake, DagothUrReturns, sephiroth1089, DarkDuckMan, crono1009, hellpunch11, syntaxerror7, RwK4, Giygas99, Ace_0f_Spades, TBSMookfisher, ZevGun and Gandoclaus did not have Batman beating TF2.

2 people got it wrong and lived. Former first place OceloTRaveN and former second place jwhbp2 also did not have Batman beating TF2.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/21/2010 9:10:47 PM | message detail
Nice, bleed some percent so Halo can take you out next round.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 60/68 Today's Matches: Uncharted 2 & Halo
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/21/2010 9:11:07 PM | message detail
I think that was a special case. Fable/TF2 was within 20 votes at the final update and everyone was F5ing the main page like nuts. I don't think Uncharted 2 is going to have a better board vote than SFIV (although it will have a better bracket vote).

I agree that the last minute TF2 rally might have been the reason for Uncharted 2 having such a crazy board vote. It's hard to say for sure between UC2/LoD as to which game would benefit the most as a result of the rallying in the previous match.
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Achromatic | Posted 11/21/2010 9:11:26 PM | message detail

From: ShatteredElysium | #366
Well this sucks. Apparently the battle entry updates even if you don't tell it to. I had Uncharted pre-match. Then just before match started I change the drop down to SFIV just in case I decided to change band then could just hit update. Decided to stick to Uncharted so navigate to a different webpage without hitting update and now when I check on it, it has SFIV picked. Is that normal?

Didn't have mega loads riding on it but 15k is 15k.


That is normal.
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Sir Chris
transients | Posted 11/21/2010 9:11:43 PM | message detail
55% updates already. SF will win some updates for sure overnight.
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xyzzy
IkaMusume | Posted 11/21/2010 9:11:52 PM | message detail
I think its a pretty sure bet that a western action game with multiplayer would benefit from TF2 rallying more than a 10 year old jrpg
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/21/2010 9:12:00 PM | message detail
Silly me for thinking that the board wouldn't just go with its bracket.

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DFF
charmander6000 | Posted 11/21/2010 9:16:27 PM | message detail
Updated Top 10

Top 10 Biggest Night Vote Gaps
1. Super Smash Bros. Melee – 35469 vs. Guitar Hero II – 5223 (R1) – 30246
2. LoZ: Majora’s Mask – 34368 vs. Wii Sports – 6842 (R1) – 27526
3. Fallout 3 – 33402 vs. inFamous – 7837 (R1) – 25565
4. Resident Evil 4 – 31896 vs. Jet Grind Radio – 6929 (R1) – 24967
5. Final Fantasy X – 32570 vs. Viewtiful Joe – 9479 (R1) – 23091
6. Metal Gear Solid 3 – 28643 vs. TimeSplitters 2 – 8627 (R1) – 20016
7. Metroid Prime – 30391 vs. Star Ocean 3 – 11050 (R1) – 19340
8. Super Mario Galaxy – 27429 vs. Beyond Good & Evil – 9246 (R1) – 18183
9. Batman: AA – 28821 vs. Psychonauts – 10933 (R1) – 17888
10. Fallout 3 – 265595 vs. Deus Ex – 9212 (R2) – 17383

Top 10 Smallest Day Vote Gaps
1. Team Fortress 2 – 30893 vs. Fable – 30856 (R1) – 37
2. Morrowind – 25522 vs. Warcraft III – 25066 (R1) – 456
3. Deus Ex – 25117 vs. Rock Band 2 – 24365 (R1) – 752
4. Street Fighter IV – 27481 vs. Sonic Adventure 2 – 26673 (R1) – 808
5. Pokemon RSE – 30021 vs. Grand Theft Auto IV – 29113 (R1) – 908
6. Marvel vs. Capcom 2 – 26911 vs. New Super Mario Bros. Wii – 25287 (R1) – 1624
7. Borderlands – 27909 vs. Tales of Vesperia – 22346 (R1) – 5563
8. Final Fantasy XII – 27715 vs. Crisis Core – 22089 (R1) – 5626
9. World of Warcraft – 29994 vs. Animal Crossing – 21231 (R1) – 8763
10. Batman: AA – 31144 vs. Team Fortress 2 – 21180 (R2) – 9964

Top 10 Most Popular Day Polls
1. Team Fortress 2 vs. Fable (R1) – 61749
2. LoZ: Twilight Princess vs. Shenmue (R1) – 59254
3. Pokemon RSE vs. Grand Theft Auto IV (R1) – 59134
4. Kingdom Hearts II vs. Halo 2 (R1) – 58733
5. Kingdom Hearts vs. Castlevania: DoS (R1) – 57172
6. Final Fantasy IX vs. Phoenix Wright: AA T&T (R1) – 55461
7. Street Fighter IV vs. Sonic Adventure 2 (R1) – 54154
8. Super Smash Bros. Brawl vs. Mario Kart DS (R1) – 53396
9. Batman: AA vs. Team Fortress 2 (R2) – 52324
10. Shadow of the Colossus vs. The Sims (R1) – 52315

Top 10 Least Popular Night Polls
1. Valkyria Chronicles vs. Disgaea (R1) – 31260
2. Persona 3 vs. Civilization IV (R1) – 33594
3. Skies of Arcadia vs. Baldur’s Gate II (R1) – 33937
4. Bioshock vs. Star Wars: Battlefront II (R1) – 34083
5. Mario Kart Wii vs. Phoenix Wright (R1) – 34196
6. Paper Mario: TTYD vs. Gears of War (R1) – 35292
7. Perfect Dark vs. Conker’s BFD (R1) – 35424
8. Golden Sun vs. Ratchet & Clank: UYA (R1) – 35439
9. Fallout 3 vs. Deus Ex (R2) – 35807
10. Dead Rising vs. The World Ends With You (R1) – 36014

Top 10 Lowest Individual Night Votes
1. Guitar Hero II (R1) – 5223
2. Wii Sports (R1) – 6842
3. Jet Grind Radio (R1) – 6929
4. inFamous (R1) – 7837
5. TimeSplitters 2 (R1) – 8627
6. Deus Ex (R2) – 9212
7. Beyond Good & Evil (R1) – 9246
8. Viewtiful Joe (R1) – 9479
9. Katamari Damacy (R1) – 10412
10. Star Wars: Battlefront II (R1) – 10595

Top 10 Hardest Matches to Predict
1. Pokemon RSE vs. Grand Theft Auto IV (R1) – 26.23%
2. Paper Mario: TTYD vs. Gears of War (R1) – 29.33%
3. Morrowind vs. Warcraft III (R1) – 32.76%
4. Deus Ex vs. Rock Band 2 (R1) – 36.61%
5. Batman: AA vs. Team Fortress 2 (R2) – 41.97%
6. Persona 3 vs. Civilization IV (R1) – 42.85%
7. Tales of Symphonia vs. Resident Evil 5 (R1) – 43.87%
8. Skies of Arcadia vs. Baldur’s Gate II (R1) – 47.63%
9. Marvel vs. Capcom 2 vs. New Super Mario Bros. Wii (R1) – 49.31%
10. Mega Man 9 vs. Demon’s Souls (R1) – 54.91%

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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 60/68 Today's Matches: Uncharted 2 & Halo
charmander6000 | Posted 11/21/2010 9:19:16 PM | message detail
The LS crew is almost at the top of the bracket.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 60/68 Today's Matches: Uncharted 2 & Halo
Biolizard28 | Posted 11/21/2010 9:20:34 PM | message detail
I'm sure he prefers the term "Army"
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/21/2010 9:21:22 PM | message detail
Interesting that Uncharted 2 gets stuck with two night vote games then Halo next round.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 60/68 Today's Matches: Uncharted 2 & Halo
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/21/2010 9:22:44 PM | message detail
The LS crew is almost at the top of the bracket.

Yeah, I noticed my highest ranked account is at 6 on the leaderboard. I picked Uncharted 2 and Halo: CE on all of my accounts for today's matches.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/21/2010 9:30:56 PM | message detail
Damn, SFIV could get a cut in the first hour. Uncharted 2 would win the freeze against OoT confirmed. BOARD 8'S BABY.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/21/2010 9:31:22 PM | message detail
Man, what a insane drop for Uncharted 2 since the end of the board vote.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/21/2010 9:31:58 PM | message detail
Uncharted 2 vs. Halo 1 board vote

Let's do this

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DFF
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/21/2010 9:32:06 PM | message detail
Man, Uncharted 2's board vote against Halo is going to be insane.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/21/2010 9:33:24 PM | message detail
My best chance at reaching the leaderboard (other than winning) will probably be through this stretch of matches. I still have a long way to go, I'm not even in the top 50 in the guru though after today assuming Halo wins I think I'll be 30th. Casuals will fall and while it's a safe stretch other gurus have taken risks too.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 60/68 Today's Matches: Uncharted 2 & Halo
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/21/2010 9:34:02 PM | message detail
In all seriousness, this is probably much more of a bracket vote. Bracketz might still be in effect at the start of Round 3, though. They probably won't really die until KH/KHII kills half of us.
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Achromatic | Posted 11/21/2010 9:36:17 PM | message detail
UC2 vs Halo board vote.

How epic?
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Sir Chris
Achromatic | Posted 11/21/2010 9:36:36 PM | message detail
(I know it was commented on, but I am asking for opinions)
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Sir Chris
transients | Posted 11/21/2010 9:40:16 PM | message detail
I'm in the top 200 now but I don't think I'll be moving up much more for a while. the next match I have a chance on is probably the Tales match.
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xyzzy
charmander6000 | Posted 11/21/2010 9:40:37 PM | message detail
4 vote cut.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 60/68 Today's Matches: Uncharted 2 & Halo
transients | Posted 11/21/2010 9:40:40 PM | message detail
annnd there's your first cut. night is going to be cruel. this probably ends at like 52/48.
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xyzzy
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/21/2010 9:40:57 PM | message detail
We could see UC swing from 55% at the freeze to 45% at the end against Halo.
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NoDicePwn | Posted 11/21/2010 9:42:01 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4135&region=USXCA

damn you california. the one time it really needs you!
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transients | Posted 11/21/2010 9:42:26 PM | message detail
nah, Halo will have brackets. (well, maybe not -- lol super mario sunshine)
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xyzzy
charmander6000 | Posted 11/21/2010 9:43:32 PM | message detail
Uncharted 2 is the board favourite though Halo is probably the casual favourite.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 60/68 Today's Matches: Uncharted 2 & Halo
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/21/2010 9:44:21 PM | message detail
annnd there's your first cut. night is going to be cruel. this probably ends at like 52/48.

I doubt it. Uncharted 2 has over 60% in Oceania, barely winning Asia, and almost 55% in Europe. Still early in the match, but the percentages could change quite a bit from this point in the match.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!
charmander6000 | Posted 11/21/2010 9:45:46 PM | message detail
Street Fighter IV will make gains in Europe.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 60/68 Today's Matches: Uncharted 2 & Halo
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/21/2010 9:46:18 PM | message detail
What makes you think that?
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/21/2010 9:46:39 PM | message detail
http://kotaku.com/5694814/sony-has-exclusive-playstation-3-reveal-the-day-after-spike-vgas

What day would the Halo/UC2 match be? Cuz if its after Dec 12th, and theres speculation Uncharted 3 will be announced then...
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DpObliVion | Posted 11/21/2010 9:49:16 PM | message detail
Dec 7 I think.

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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/21/2010 9:59:11 PM | message detail

From: NoDicePwn | #398
http://kotaku.com/5694814/sony-has-exclusive-playstation-3-reveal-the-day-after-spike-vgas

What day would the Halo/UC2 match be? Cuz if its after Dec 12th, and theres speculation Uncharted 3 will be announced then...


Oh right, the Sony exclusive. I remember the VGAs in 2008 showcased Uncharted 2 for the first time, so hey it could happen again. Uncharted 3 is pretty much set in stone at this point.
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