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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 951

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IkaMusume | Posted 11/20/2010 10:11:50 PM | message detail
Oh, nm. For some reason I thought Deus Ex got like 53% on Rock Band. Of course Rock Band > Infamous then
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/20/2010 10:12:48 PM | message detail
Rock Band 2 is gonna finish well above Infamous. This result is probably better for RB2, actually. Deus Ex's hardcore fanbase will inflate its own value. If the casual Rock Band 2 were here instead, Fallout could easily be hitting 80.
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IkaMusume | Posted 11/20/2010 10:13:47 PM | message detail
Well, if Melee truly can hit 75% on Fallout 3, then I think we have a contest winner right there
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/20/2010 10:14:41 PM | message detail
75% would put it in the FFVII/OOT range. Of course it won't happen, but......scary x-stats there.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
IkaMusume | Posted 11/20/2010 10:15:09 PM | message detail
Ocarina of Time (2009g) VS Fallout 3 (2009g)

Ocarina of Time has a strength of 53.91.
Fallout 3 has a strength of 29.65.

Ocarina of Time wins with 72.50% of the vote!
A win of 65,861 with 146,355 total votes cast.



For some reason, I doubt it will though
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/20/2010 10:16:24 PM | message detail
I'm still thinking multiplayer SFF

Or at the very least GH2 would get no apathy votes against Melee since it's a well known game while Rock Band 2 probably got a bunch since people never heard of Deus Ex.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 56/64 Today's Matches: Fallout 3 & Batman AA
ZFS | Posted 11/20/2010 10:17:52 PM | message detail
Man I never woulda imagined Infamous would be so weak

Why? Infamous is not a big game.

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TheCodeisBosco | Posted 11/20/2010 11:17:18 PM | message detail
Excellent performance from Fallout 3 here, in my opinion. I know it doesn't really matter - its path is set in stone anyway - but even still, it deserves massive props.

Can't wait for tomorrow's matches!

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CURRENT GOTY SCORE: 57
Watch Outsourced! I know that doesn't have anything to do with the contest, but...
VaultBoyAlbion | Posted 11/20/2010 11:19:15 PM | message detail
man, peoples expectations for FO3 have such a big range. Some people impressed with FO3 here, some people calling doom for it.
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creativename | Posted 11/20/2010 11:40:49 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #019
The idea first came up in 2004 during Vyse/Laharl.

If a person is given a random choice they usually pick the first one a bit more often than the other choices.


Wait wait wait. Are you actually taking this garbage seriously?? charmander, I am disappoint :(

I've posted the below polls before. A simple search for 'option' reveals the following four polls we've had:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3680
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2996
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=801
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=461

The 'first option' average? 0.9825%. The 'bottom option' average? 1.025%. BOTTOM OPTION>TOP OPTION!! Which makes sense via "be lazy and pick option closer to the submit button" logic.

Really though, it's beyond meaningless, which is exactly what you'd expect. Top/bottom does not matter one whit. "Top option" does well because - obviously - in the first round, the top games are the higher seeded ones. They will always have a better record. When two games are actually of equal strength it is the most complete non-factor possible.

From: -LusterSoldier- | #043
As of right now, the accounts ranked 15th through 19th, 21st to 25th, and 28th to 35th are all my accounts.


... o_O

How many freakin' brackets did you make?? And why were they all apparently so similar? Congrats though, that's amazing.

From: -LusterSoldier- | #057
224 brackets.


I...what...I'm speechless. Why do you have that many accounts?

From: VaultBoyAlbion | #109
man, peoples expectations for FO3 have such a big range. Some people impressed with FO3 here, some people calling doom for it.


Yeah, my own reaction to matches like this is "There is no information to be gleaned from this result"

I thin GSC/Advance Wars was similar. I saw some people saying "Clearly GSC>FFX!" because of it, while others were saying "LOL GSC, clearly Majora's Mask>GSC"! People need to accept that sometimes we just can't read anything from a result.

I don't necessarily think RB2=GH like so many are thinking, there's many reasons those two games might differ in strength. Also I think there might be something to charmander's theory of casual SFF/apathy votes with Melee. Also, I don't believe Ocarina would hit 70% on Fallout 3 these days, Fallout has probably boosted a bit over time.
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VaultBoyAlbion | Posted 11/21/2010 12:07:53 AM | message detail
Final Fantasy Tactics vs. FFXII

who you got?
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 11/21/2010 12:17:54 AM | message detail
1vs1 I'd pick Tactics. I mean, do you honestly think that Tactics would allow CRISIS CORE to get so close???
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Currently Playing: StarCraft, Zelda: Ocarina of Time
DpObliVion | Posted 11/21/2010 12:45:26 AM | message detail
InFamous sucks

So, yeah.....should I be banking on this UC2/SF4 match? I'd be banking 13,600 with 19,000 banked. It would probably be wise to stretch my streak farther, but......UC2 is the favorite, and I'm a huge UC2 fan, but I have very little faith in it winning the match.

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TheCodeisBosco | Posted 11/21/2010 1:00:58 AM | message detail
Personally, I'm going to go ahead and bet on UC2. I doubt it'd let Sonic Adventure 2 get 49.25% on it, y'know?

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CURRENT GOTY SCORE: 57
Round One was a blast! Here's hoping for an awesome R2.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/21/2010 1:03:27 AM | message detail
There is literally no way FF12 could beat FFT.
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DpObliVion | Posted 11/21/2010 1:53:52 AM | message detail
Personally, I'm going to go ahead and bet on UC2. I doubt it'd let Sonic Adventure 2 get 49.25% on it, y'know?

I don't know, I just see the way Nathan Drake has performed, and I don't understand how he would do so horrendously as a character but the game would do well enough to defeat games from well-established series' like Sonic and Street Fighter. I know games =/= characters, but I just feel like Drake would do pretty well as a character representing his game. I kinda see it going the way of InFamous, obviously UC2 is a lot better and more popular than InFamous, but just the way that it's kind of a mainstream, casual game. I wouldn't be surprised in the least bit if SF4 broke 60%.

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Justin_Crossing | Posted 11/21/2010 1:57:56 AM | message detail
yeah uh luster

why do you have 224 brackets

much less 224 accounts
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 11/21/2010 2:00:41 AM | message detail
SA2 and SFIV are the same way BTW. Sonic and Street Fighter aren't particularly popular franchises on this site anyways, especially not the newer games in each series.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 11/21/2010 2:14:09 AM | message detail
Okay, Fallout 3 is now below 74%. This *has* to be a disappointment, right? Only continues the "games released in '07 or later are disappointing" trend.

Man Mario Galaxy is so lucky it drew a night match two more times, or else we'd get to see its horrible ASV against Pokemon and Zelda. Eek.
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Mr3790 | Posted 11/21/2010 2:47:44 AM | message detail
I must say, that's a good match pic. Nice to have those in givens like this.
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Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 11/21/2010 4:22:33 AM | message detail
20 people have Brawl winning...Didn't expected that.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/21/2010 5:38:45 AM | message detail
20 people have Brawl winning...Didn't expected that.

Most of those are my accounts.

I...what...I'm speechless. Why do you have that many accounts?

I had a lot of accounts back in the days when there were a few other people with tons of accounts and I tried making lots of accounts to keep up with these guys. I ended up hitting 475 accounts during the era of my original account, before they all fall victim to a usermap axe. So under my current account, I went back to making lots of accounts again.
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 11/21/2010 7:07:07 AM | message detail
To those of you who keep track with my Odds to Win project, I've updated with a list of averages from the first round, as well as the listed upsets.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56677376 (Last three/four posts)

8/64 upsets that I counted. Not bad, considering most of them were close to begin with.

For the record:

Upsets:
Deus Ex > Rock Band 2: 16.19%
Marvel vs. Capcom 2 > New Super Mario Bros. Wii: 33.24%
Valkyria Chronicles > Disgaea: 34.17%
Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 3 > Civilization IV: 44.00%
Street Fighter IV > Sonic Adventure 2: 44.89%
Halo 3 > Super Mario Sunshine: 45.26%
Pokemon Ruby/Sapphire/Emerald > Grand Theft Auto IV: 46.13%
The Elder Scrolls 3: Morrowind > Warcraft 3: 46.33%
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/21/2010 7:19:30 AM | message detail
Wait wait wait. Are you actually taking this garbage seriously?? charmander, I am disappoint :(

Well of course not since a random choice isn't really being made, a lot of people that don't know either option don't vote which is why we see lower vote totals in those matches while others vote for other reasons such as name or picture.

However those polls don't really count since people aren't given a random choice. Take a look at the Best Console Ever poll on April Fools with all the options being Xbox, the top one wins.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 56/64 Today's Matches: Fallout 3 & Batman AA
creativename | Posted 11/21/2010 7:45:06 AM | message detail

From: LinkMarioSamus | #118
SA2 and SFIV are the same way BTW. Sonic and Street Fighter aren't particularly popular franchises on this site anyways


And the UC franchise is? :)

From: LinkMarioSamus | #119
Okay, Fallout 3 is now below 74%. This *has* to be a disappointment, right? Only continues the "games released in '07 or later are disappointing" trend.


74% is disappointing but 75% or something would be OK? What. This performance is fine and was never going to tell us anything anyway. We don't know where Deus Ex is. There is no information to be gained here.

From: -LusterSoldier- | #122
I had a lot of accounts back in the days when there were a few other people with tons of accounts and I tried making lots of accounts to keep up with these guys. I ended up hitting 475 accounts during the era of my original account, before they all fall victim to a usermap axe. So under my current account, I went back to making lots of accounts again.


I must still ask the question..why? What is the purpose of this?

From: charmander6000 | #124
However those polls don't really count since people aren't given a random choice. Take a look at the Best Console Ever poll on April Fools with all the options being Xbox, the top one wins.


I couldn't find it but really, one poll like that means nothing. For all we know it could be some interaction with item length and longer named items would tend to weigh things towards the bottom option if all options were the same, or something. Trying to draw *anything* from a poll like this is overreaching to incredible degrees. The top option thing is a meme, it's a complete joke and there is nothing to it whatsoever. Beyond nothing.

If you truly believe there is something to this, I am still disappoint! :)
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/21/2010 7:49:37 AM | message detail
Again it's an early psychology lesson that when given a random choice people tend to take the first option.

Of course like I've said it doesn't apply to this contest since people aren't put in a random choice position and for the fact that a lot of people just don't vote.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 56/64 Today's Matches: Fallout 3 & Batman AA
HaRRicH | Posted 11/21/2010 7:51:34 AM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #091
Harrich, I cannot believe you actually thought I sent that e-mail. You're something else.

Also Rocky Horror gLee made me think of you. Doing that for your parents must have been something else.


It was weird, and I'm surprised I haven't been disowned yet...!


From: IkaMusume | #103
Well, if Melee truly can hit 75% on Fallout 3, then I think we have a contest winner right there


1) http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3606
--> RB2 carried RB while GH consisted of mostly GH2/3, and RB still won.

2) RB2 was an eight-seed while GH2 was sixth place in a vote-in to get a sixteen-seed.

There's not much reason to consider them equals at this time. I wouldn't put it past SSBM to have done something fishy against GH2, either.


From: charmander6000 | #124
However those polls don't really count since people aren't given a random choice. Take a look at the Best Console Ever poll on April Fools with all the options being Xbox, the top one wins.


The options on the front page were different from the options on the results -- it was an example of trickery.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/21/2010 7:58:34 AM | message detail
Match LXVI: (5) Batman: Arkham Asylum vs. (4) Team Fortress 2

Last Round

Batman: Arkham Asylum – 72.50%
Psychonauts – 27.50%

Team Fortress 2 – 50.03%
Fable – 49.97%

Analysis

Batman was able to crush Psychonauts while Team Fortress 2 needed rallying power to survive Fable. When I first made my bracket I struggled to take Batman over Team Fortress 2 and while a lot of people feel that this will be an easy win for Batman I still think Team Fortress 2 will make this respectful.

As impressive as Batman was last round most people agreed that Psychonauts was going to be one of the weakest games in the bracket and really the only thing this showed is that anyone can blow anything out. The other 2009 games haven’t been performing that well this contest showing that GameFAQs didn’t really care too much for that year.

Despite almost losing to Fable I still feel that Team Fortress 2 is not some fodder game. We don’t really know how strong Fable is and while the game was hated it was still one of the biggest games of the Xbox games and looking at old polls it isn’t like the game performed that badly. There was also hype for Fable 3 coming out a few days before the match. Even looking at last year’s contest I wouldn’t be surprised if Call of Duty 4 did something to Team Fortress 2 since the game should be stronger if we consider the ensemble effect where games with different characters for fans to like perform a lot better compare to the characters.

Batman is the favourite, but people shouldn’t count Team Fortress 2 out completely. The game has reason to have strength while Batman has reason to not be as strong as some people were hyping for it to be. Sometimes I feel that the Batman supporters on this board want the game to perform well just so they can have a reason to request SBAllen to have a fictional character battle.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Batman: AA > Team Fortress 2

charmander6000’s Prediction: Batman: AA wins, 55.05% - 44.95%

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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 56/64 Today's Matches: Fallout 3 & Batman AA
HaRRicH | Posted 11/21/2010 8:45:02 AM | message detail
I'm interested to see how the battle-stats start looking. The bracket-predictions rarely differed much from the battle-predictions, but you can't make any predictions beyond R1 pre-contest. Now that people have had to wait to see what happens in the previous rounds, I wonder how much different they'll look in comparison now.
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Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 11/21/2010 8:45:47 AM | message detail
It's a shame fallout 3 has Melee in the QF. i wanted to see it against a MGS game or Zelda TP. Would be a good upset pick since MGS4/3 look weak as ass.
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lightsout06 | Posted 11/21/2010 8:48:18 AM | message detail
Fallout 3 has Metroid/HL2 in the QF
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695924 | Posted 11/21/2010 8:53:39 AM | message detail
Fallout 3 will not have trouble against either Prime or HL2. Lol Valve.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/21/2010 8:54:57 AM | message detail
I must still ask the question..why? What is the purpose of this?

I just like lots of accounts.
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Master Moltar | Posted 11/21/2010 9:00:13 AM | message detail
Batman: Arkham Asylum 28.57%

2
Team Fortress 2 71.43%

5
TOTAL VOTES 7
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Moltar Status: Bracket: PM TTYD (54/62)
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/21/2010 9:00:29 AM | message detail
Batman: Arkham Asylum 48% 12
Team Fortress 2 52% 13
TOTAL VOTES 25

Take that Batman
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 56/64 Today's Matches: Fallout 3 & Batman AA
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/21/2010 9:00:36 AM | message detail
oh boy

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DFF
VaultBoyAlbion | Posted 11/21/2010 9:00:49 AM | message detail
this is gonna be one of those days isnt it
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 11/21/2010 9:00:54 AM | message detail
Not this again.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/21/2010 9:01:13 AM | message detail
Batman had brackets, right?

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DFF
Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 11/21/2010 9:01:30 AM | message detail

From: lightsout06 | #131
Fallout 3 has Metroid/HL2 in the QF


oh yeah forgot that was the next division ,thought ti was brawl/melee. Melee has TP then. Well that's going to be a crap match.

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charmander6000 | Posted 11/21/2010 9:01:30 AM | message detail
Fallout 3 79.68%

Pretty good, then again it had to compete with three fodder games.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 56/64 Today's Matches: Fallout 3 & Batman AA
MeteorExF | Posted 11/21/2010 9:01:40 AM | message detail
Batman: Arkham Asylum 50%

59
Team Fortress 2 50%

59
TOTAL VOTES 118
Not_Wylvane | Posted 11/21/2010 9:02:01 AM | message detail
79.68% for Fallout 3.

Alright, I guess.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/21/2010 9:02:04 AM | message detail
If it stays this close Team Fortress 2 has a chance.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 56/64 Today's Matches: Fallout 3 & Batman AA
GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/21/2010 9:02:09 AM | message detail
something tells me that my Batman with 60% prediction will not look good
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Oracle contest - 27th
Today's pick: Arkham Asylum - 60.35% Status:
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/21/2010 9:02:31 AM | message detail
Batman starting to pull away here.
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melikepizza | Posted 11/21/2010 9:02:56 AM | message detail
ok its over now
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NoDicePwn | Posted 11/21/2010 9:03:01 AM | message detail
Batman is looking safe now
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/21/2010 9:03:02 AM | message detail
Looks like Batman is recovering
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 56/64 Today's Matches: Fallout 3 & Batman AA
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/21/2010 9:03:04 AM | message detail
Man that was some early vote.

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DFF