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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 950

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charmander6000 | Posted 11/20/2010 9:22:54 AM | message detail
I remember you, congrats.

Also despite most close matches going against my bracket seems like I'll finish the round just under the 96th percentile.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 54/62 Today's Matches: PM: TTYD & Oblivion
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NoDicePwn | Posted 11/20/2010 9:23:58 AM | message detail
I thought people were making a bad joke when they talked about Oblivion > WW. Are you telling me that people were actually serious??

Of course not. Oblivion has proven itself to be quite strong, and I always viewed WW as the weakest 3D Zelda. I'm starting to lose confidence now in it, but I don't think its impossible. I still think Fallout 3 would be able to beat WW, though.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/20/2010 9:25:12 AM | message detail
I thought people were making a bad joke when they talked about Oblivion > WW. Are you telling me that people were actually serious??

Oblivion did have a non-0% chance at winning. Personally I felt that most people were just playing around with the stats to get that result.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 54/62 Today's Matches: PM: TTYD & Oblivion
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/20/2010 9:25:58 AM | message detail
and man, Oblivion is really dropping now. At this point I'm starting to lose the little faith I had left it might beat WW.
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Greyfeld | Posted 11/20/2010 9:29:53 AM | message detail
While doing my research for my bracket, the polls I'd looked at just made me assume that WW would beat Oblivion without breaking a sweat (not looking at a doubling, of course, but nothing extremely close either).

Personally, I think people have just been instilled with wrpgFEAR because of the decent numbers put up by FO3 and KOTOR, and not taking into account the fact that they both put a beat-down on near-fodder games.
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PSN - Aevio
Playing: Might & Magic: Clash of Heroes
Gooper Blooper | Posted 11/20/2010 9:31:11 AM | message detail
Soul Calibur II vs. Gears of War who ya got

>______>
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Advokaiser | Posted 11/20/2010 9:32:00 AM | message detail
I thought people were making a bad joke when they talked about Oblivion > WW. Are you telling me that people were actually serious??

SMS > Halo 3 was an even bigger joke.

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"I remember a time when someone called World of Warcraft 'World of WoW'"
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/20/2010 9:32:08 AM | message detail
Yeah, at this point its probably gonna be more like a 56-44 than anything. Oh well, at least Fallout 3 was given a good path.
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Greyfeld | Posted 11/20/2010 9:33:50 AM | message detail
I'd take SC2 over GeoW. Despite being a fighting game, it's the most popular in its franchise, and you have to be pretty bad fodder to lose to Gears in a 1v1 match.
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PSN - Aevio
Playing: Might & Magic: Clash of Heroes
Advokaiser | Posted 11/20/2010 9:34:19 AM | message detail
Soul Calibur II vs. Gears of War who ya got

>______>


Hmmm...

Gears of War probably.

<______<

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"I remember a time when someone called World of Warcraft 'World of WoW'"
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/20/2010 9:35:47 AM | message detail
Plus the whole "I would never take any game with Link in it to lose to Gears of War" factor
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Advokaiser | Posted 11/20/2010 9:37:43 AM | message detail
Plus the "I didn't even know it was Link but it seemed kind of familiar" factor.

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"I remember a time when someone called World of Warcraft 'World of WoW'"
Greyfeld | Posted 11/20/2010 9:37:56 AM | message detail

SMS > Halo 3 was an even bigger joke.


That match was ALWAYS a toss-up. Between Halo's horrible night vote, the typical anti-voting, and Sunshine's lack of contest info, it was easy to believe that the Mario Factor would crush Halo 3.

Just because it didn't happen that way doesn't mean that it wasn't a toss-up match, it just means that we overestimated Sunshine's chances.
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PSN - Aevio
Playing: Might & Magic: Clash of Heroes
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/20/2010 9:39:17 AM | message detail
That match was ALWAYS a toss-up. Between Halo's horrible night vote, the typical anti-voting, and Sunshine's lack of contest info, it was easy to believe that the Mario Factor would crush Halo 3.

Nah, it was more fear than anything since Halo bombs a lot. Going by logic and stats, Halo 3 was never gonna lose that match
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/20/2010 9:39:42 AM | message detail
Oblivion > WW wasn't a joke at all. It just turns out WW is pretty strong.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
charmander6000 | Posted 11/20/2010 9:40:59 AM | message detail
If anything the board should have been disappointed by Halo 3's performance.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 54/62 Today's Matches: PM: TTYD & Oblivion
695924 | Posted 11/20/2010 9:42:46 AM | message detail
SMS > Halo 3 was some serious Mario overestimation. Some even had that game going to the division finals.
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lol opinions
Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 11/20/2010 9:42:54 AM | message detail
Nah, it was more fear than anything since Halo bombs a lot. Going by logic and stats, Halo 3 was never gonna lose that match

"Never" is pretty strong for a game that only won with 52.53% of the votes. Going by "logic and stats", SMS should haven't gotten as close as it did. If "logic and stats" held up a bit worse, SMS would have won.
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Greyfeld | Posted 11/20/2010 9:43:16 AM | message detail
Nah, it was more fear than anything since Halo bombs a lot. Going by logic and stats, Halo 3 was never gonna lose that match

Of course, Mr. "Oblivion has a chance to beat Wind Waker."
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PSN - Aevio
Playing: Might & Magic: Clash of Heroes
lightsout06 | Posted 11/20/2010 9:43:30 AM | message detail
Ill finish R1 with 57 points. The 8/9 matchups really hurt me
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R.I.P Halo 2
Eeeevil Overlord | Posted 11/20/2010 9:43:53 AM | message detail
"Personally, I think people have just been instilled with wrpgFEAR because of the decent numbers put up by FO3 and KOTOR, and not taking into account the fact that they both put a beat-down on near-fodder games."

This was being talked about pre-bracket. People predicted WRPGs doing very well (which seems like a pretty good prediction so far!), and for those who felt Oblivion would be close to Fallout 3 and who thought Wind Waker was the least popular 3D Zelda, that would be enough to make it a real talking point.
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NoDicePwn | Posted 11/20/2010 9:44:53 AM | message detail
Of course, Mr. "Oblivion has a chance to beat Wind Waker."

Better chance of that happening than Mario Sunshine ever winning.
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Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 11/20/2010 9:45:18 AM | message detail
SMS > Halo 3 was some serious Mario overestimation. Some even had that game going to the division finals.

Beating Halo 1 isn't the much more of a stretch than beating Halo 3. Even though it's not going to face SMS, Uncharted 2 may end up to be weaker than SMS anyways.
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"Let me believe what you've always believed! That living is wonderful!"
"Thank you so much... Thank you for loving me."
Greyfeld | Posted 11/20/2010 9:46:39 AM | message detail
Better chance of that happening than Mario Sunshine ever winning.

Whatever you say Albion. It's easy to take your opinion with a grain of salt when your ability to call trends blows, and you're making claims after a match is already over.
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PSN - Aevio
Playing: Might & Magic: Clash of Heroes
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/20/2010 9:47:19 AM | message detail
If you remember, I was one of the biggest "Halo 3 > SMS" people. I'm not just saying it after the fact.
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Advokaiser | Posted 11/20/2010 9:47:42 AM | message detail
Uncharted 2 may end up to be weaker than SMS anyways.

lol

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"I remember a time when someone called World of Warcraft 'World of WoW'"
red sox 777 | Posted 11/20/2010 9:48:13 AM | message detail
Calling close matches obvious after the fact is a long-standing tradition going back to 2004 at least in this topic. It's ridiculous, though, when the margin of victory is 52/48 and one of the games was an unknown. You can call Link/Cloud obvious if Link wins 52/48, but not a match between a little-known game and an unknown game.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
EvilNcr | Posted 11/20/2010 9:50:45 AM | message detail

From: Team Rocket Elite | #423
Beating Halo 1 isn't the much more of a stretch than beating Halo 3. Even though it's not going to face SMS, Uncharted 2 may end up to be weaker than SMS anyways.


Were you trying to imply Uncharted 2 is not clearly weaker than SMS?
Because if you're trying to say that you somehow thought Halo 3 is just a bit stronger yet SMS but that Uncharted was stronger than Halo 3, you've been smoking some real good stuff.
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Greyfeld | Posted 11/20/2010 9:51:42 AM | message detail
No, I don't remember, because I don't keep a tally of crap like that. But just because you ended up being right about the match doesn't mean it wasn't a toss-up match. I called P3 > Civ4 right, but that doesn't make it not a toss-up.

A toss-up match, by its very definition, is a match where the lack of information about one, or both, of the games in question leads to an inconclusive matchup where either game could come out the victor, dependent on different variables. SMS/Halo 3 falls under this description, and just because you got the match right doesn't make it otherwise.
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PSN - Aevio
Playing: Might & Magic: Clash of Heroes
Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 11/20/2010 9:51:46 AM | message detail
Uncharted 2 may end up to be weaker than SMS anyways.

lol


I'm not saying it's because SMS is particularly strong. Considering the performances of some of the other 2009 games and PS3 exclusives (even MGS4), U2 may still prove to be a fraud.
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"Let me believe what you've always believed! That living is wonderful!"
"Thank you so much... Thank you for loving me."
red sox 777 | Posted 11/20/2010 9:52:29 AM | message detail
Uncharted 2 was actually the huge favorite here over the Halo games, SMS, and everything else in its half of the division before the contest. I'd take Halo 1 to be the game that advances to face Fallout 3 now.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
EvilNcr | Posted 11/20/2010 9:54:17 AM | message detail
But what's the logic in that? The 360 is clearly more popular here, the Halo is a bigger brand as well and Uncharted is fairly recent compared to Halo which dates back to the original XBOX. I don't see how Halo could be less popular than Uncharted. Doesn't make any sense to me.
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Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 11/20/2010 9:55:26 AM | message detail
Oblivion>WW was unlikely but certainly a possibility before tournament. If you actually look at the four ways last year then Oblivion>WW isn't a joke at all.

I still Majora will beat WW, people are overrating it's strength. I would take MM over WW any day of the week. Especially 1v1.
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Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 11/20/2010 9:55:26 AM | message detail
Were you trying to imply Uncharted 2 is not clearly weaker than SMS?
Because if you're trying to say that you somehow thought Halo 3 is just a bit stronger yet SMS but that Uncharted was stronger than Halo 3, you've been smoking some real good stuff.


I don't think anything is clear about how strong Uncharted 2 is. It looked pretty good in the 2009 GotY polls and it didn't do too badly against The Legend of Dragoon which seemed to have some strength in the vote-in polls. But I think there's a good chance you're right that those polls are misleading and U2 is weaker than SMS.
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"Let me believe what you've always believed! That living is wonderful!"
"Thank you so much... Thank you for loving me."
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/20/2010 9:56:22 AM | message detail
Plus its not like I ever thought Oblivion > WW was definite or anything... It was just an upset pick I was taking. No need to be so hostile, Greyfield.
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695924 | Posted 11/20/2010 9:56:24 AM | message detail
I think it had to do with the fact that UC2 was enjoyed by a lot of people on b8 coupled with the fact that Halo always get anti voted plus lol FPS.
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lol opinions
lightsout06 | Posted 11/20/2010 9:56:43 AM | message detail
I thought Halo was the heavy favorite on its half of the division from the start. Is Uncharted 2 really that popular?
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R.I.P Halo 2
red sox 777 | Posted 11/20/2010 9:57:23 AM | message detail
I'm not really sure- I was always skeptical of Uncharted's strength too, but it did well in the GOTY poll, and Halo is Halo. It's probably not that people thought Uncharted was strong, but rather that Halo and SMS were weak.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
lightsout06 | Posted 11/20/2010 9:58:37 AM | message detail
I thought Halo was the heavy favorite on its half of the division from the start. Is Uncharted 2 really that popular?
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R.I.P Halo 2
kinsho3 | Posted 11/20/2010 9:58:46 AM | message detail

From: EvilNcr | #432
But what's the logic in that? The 360 is clearly more popular here, the Halo is a bigger brand as well and Uncharted is fairly recent compared to Halo which dates back to the original XBOX. I don't see how Halo could be less popular than Uncharted. Doesn't make any sense to me.


Because people taky GOTY polls dead seriously here >_<

From: Advokaiser | #426
Uncharted 2 may end up to be weaker than SMS anyways.

lol


It will be weaker than SMS. No question here.
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Dr. Football, you are the man! I'll take you down next contest though...
The_Ps2_Devil | Posted 11/20/2010 9:59:13 AM | message detail
Well, assuming Oblivion wins I end R1 with 56 points. Those 8/9 matches really put a hurting on my score though they should all be one pointers so I don't think I'm completely out of this yet. That being said, I know I have a minimal chance of winning with MGS 4 being my pick for it all (beating FFX and Melee respectively in the Semi's and Finals). Hey, one can always hope :)
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Greyfeld | Posted 11/20/2010 9:59:52 AM | message detail
Plus its not like I ever thought Oblivion > WW was definite or anything... It was just an upset pick I was taking. No need to be so hostile, Greyfield.

First off, "Greyfeld."

Secondly, I'm not being hostile. I'm simply hammering out the facts. I might be annoyed, or irritable, but I'm making no attempt to be hostile toward you or anyone. If it comes off that way, I apologize.
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PSN - Aevio
Playing: Might & Magic: Clash of Heroes
Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 11/20/2010 10:02:04 AM | message detail

From: EvilNcr | #432
But what's the logic in that? The 360 is clearly more popular here, the Halo is a bigger brand as well and Uncharted is fairly recent compared to Halo which dates back to the original XBOX. I don't see how Halo could be less popular than Uncharted. Doesn't make any sense to me.


It's not. But Uncharted 2 was an incredible game, so it's going to get a lot votes regardless. The fact that a new IP PS3 exclusive can even compete is something of an achievement. Of course halo is more popular but more popular =/= more votes.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/20/2010 10:02:22 AM | message detail
I know a lot of people like to make fun of the board for getting a match wrong, but so far we're 55-8 with the casuals. The matches that we performed worse are...

Deus Ex - -22.49
Street Fighter IV - -43.25
Halo 3 - -46.00
Morowind - -6.09
FE: Path of Radiance - -9.80
Valkyria Chronicles - -37.65
CoD: Modern Warfare 2 - -1.14
Marvel vs. Capcom 2 - -35.98

As expected when we're wrong, we're really wrong. At the same time we have really outpredicted the casuals in many matches. In 11 matches we outpredicted them by at least 25%

Team Fortess 2 - 31.16
Tales of Symphonia - 27.11
Pokemon RSE - 43.18
Kingdom Hearts II - 40.59
Fire Emblem - 28.08
Persona 4 - 28.55
Portal - 33.77
Skies of Arcadia - 31.19
Metal Gear Solid 4 - 26.58
LoZ: Wind Waker - 38.68
Paper Mario: TTYD - 51.85

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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 54/62 Today's Matches: PM: TTYD & Oblivion
red sox 777 | Posted 11/20/2010 10:03:23 AM | message detail
Uncharted 2 being weaker than SMS is not clear at all. Being a Mario game is not worth that much, as we saw with NSMB Wii, and losing to Halo 3 isn't much of an accomplishment either. I don't expect UC2 to end up very far below Halo 1.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
kinsho3 | Posted 11/20/2010 10:03:59 AM | message detail
The 8/9 matches are pretty much only 1-pointers, yeah. As for MGS4 winning...well, at least you can focus more time on your battle bracket!
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It takes a genius to make something simple truly great.
Dr. Football, you are the man! I'll take you down next contest though...
charmander6000 | Posted 11/20/2010 10:05:52 AM | message detail
Well I've always thought Uncharted 2 was overrated since the beginning, but I have Halo > U2 in round 3.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 54/62 Today's Matches: PM: TTYD & Oblivion
kaiasian | Posted 11/20/2010 10:06:19 AM | message detail
I'm casual on this, but how in the world did Phoenix Wright lose the Mario Kart Wii?
695924 | Posted 11/20/2010 10:06:42 AM | message detail
MGS4 winning it all. Damn and I thought I was crazy for having MGS4>GSC
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lol opinions
red sox 777 | Posted 11/20/2010 10:07:12 AM | message detail
Phoenix Wright was just too niche a game to beat the Mario Kart name.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.