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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 950

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UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/18/2010 9:04:54 PM | message detail
Gross.



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Solid Snake, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 11/18/2010 9:06:26 PM | message detail
Second best Zelda game performing as it deserves to be performing.
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Wylvane
RustyMrSaturn is a horrible user.
Big Bob | Posted 11/18/2010 9:06:46 PM | message detail
WW > GSC > MM confirmed. Suck it.
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AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 11/18/2010 9:49:33 PM | message detail
MM droppin'
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Chex Warrior (Chex Quest) for CB2011
pjbasis | Posted 11/18/2010 9:50:08 PM | message detail
I think DAT TOP OPTION happened during every match of the last stats topic.
G0EMONIMPACT | Posted 11/18/2010 9:50:35 PM | message detail
I personally think the second God of War is the best in the series, but I understand 1 being stronger in this format, and while GoW3 seemed like more of the same, it was more of the same but bigger/prettier/grander than its last generation predecessors.

Then there's stuff like the Indiana Jones trilogy or the Prince of Persia: SoT trilogy. First is a great adventure with a fun love story, likable protagonist, and a magical sense of whimsy. Then the sequel comes out and its MUCH darker, the hero is less likable, the love story less fun, the bloodshed shoots up, they overload the action scenes, etc. Then the studio realizes they f****ed up and goes back to formula for the third one: back to the old villains, the old side-characters, the whimsical adventure, etc. Unfortunately in the process it fails to not only match the first one, but it never finds it own identity.

Wait, what were we talking about? Oh right. Boo WW, you stink.
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I've seen things you people wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain.
G0EMONIMPACT | Posted 11/18/2010 9:51:01 PM | message detail

From: pjbasis | #005
I think DAT TOP OPTION happened during every match of the last stats topic.


Even Phoenix Wright?
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"if only there were some way I could have sex" - Smartmuffin
pjbasis | Posted 11/18/2010 9:53:12 PM | message detail
dammit
TheCodeisBosco | Posted 11/18/2010 9:59:02 PM | message detail
(checks poll results)

...

...

...I'm feeling really bad about my G/S/C > WW pick right now.

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CURRENT GOTY SCORE: 53
Watch Outsourced! I know that doesn't have anything to do with the contest, but...
G0EMONIMPACT | Posted 11/18/2010 10:00:39 PM | message detail

From: TheCodeisBosco | #009
(checks poll results)

...

...

...I'm feeling really bad about my G/S/C > WW pick right now.


I assume you weren't here for the tripling it had over GoW2 at the beginning of the match, right?
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"You brought your *****, to the waffle hut?"
LOLContests | Posted 11/18/2010 10:04:14 PM | message detail
"Haters gonna hate me cause I'm so established."

WW is awesome, deal with it!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nR7HuJK_zPM
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"Ahem! There is *sand* on my *boot*!"--Kefka
Dr. Football beat me, Yesmar in the 2010 Guru Contest!
TheCodeisBosco | Posted 11/18/2010 10:05:32 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
TheCodeisBosco | Posted 11/18/2010 10:06:48 PM | message detail
I assume you weren't here for the tripling it had over GoW2 at the beginning of the match, right?

I read about it upon getting home a few minutes ago. That's some crazy stuff, man.

Even though Wind Waker's fallen quite a bit since then, this is still quite a bit more impressive than G/S/C's victory against Advance Wars. Hopefully Pokemon does better next round - I imagine it will, as I doubt the Crystal boxart did it any favors.

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CURRENT GOTY SCORE: 53
Watch Outsourced! I know that doesn't have anything to do with the contest, but...
quicksilvver | Posted 11/18/2010 10:12:37 PM | message detail
WW >>> G/S/C
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Religions tell children they might avoid hell...while science tells children they came from the stars.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/18/2010 10:26:16 PM | message detail
I'd like to know why MM is still getting zero respect around here. GSC is dead in the water against Wind Waker, but it still gets past Majora with ease? Is Wind Waker/Majora a 60/40 or something? Makes little sense.
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Yoblazer: http://8board.webs.com/ariel.jpg
Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world!
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/18/2010 10:40:35 PM | message detail
I never understood the confidence in either GSC or Wind Waker. Pre-contest I would have taken MM, and after we've seen everything so far, that hasn't changed one bit.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/18/2010 10:49:06 PM | message detail
I always thought GSC/MM was very much a debated match. I wanted to go with MM so badly, but getting burned by Pokemon in that match would have been too much. A Pokemon win is good for the bracket, a Zelda win is good for the fan. Basically, I'm hedging my bet.
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Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/5nw45i.jpg
Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world!
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/18/2010 10:52:12 PM | message detail
MM > WW just sounds like one of those "Common sense" picks. Wind Waker feels like the black sheep of the series to me, like a FF12 to MM being a FF8. Until we see them matched up (or based off of GSC), I will continue to feel that way
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pjbasis | Posted 11/18/2010 10:57:22 PM | message detail
There's no way the difference between WW and MM is as big as FFVIII and FFXII.
That's just plain common sense.
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/18/2010 10:57:58 PM | message detail
Maybe not that big, but I'd easily give MM a 55-56% win.
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Big Bob | Posted 11/18/2010 11:00:34 PM | message detail
Majora's Mask feels more like a black sheep to me. It may be OoT's younger brother, but it's also very short and mostly sidequests. Wind Waker feels like a more "proper" Zelda game, and the radical change in art style wound up being a good idea in the long run, seeing as how it's been used repeatedly with nobody still complaining about it.

Granted, it's hard to tell between MM/GSC. Wii Sports would get slammed by pretty much anything, and while Advance Wars is untested, it was surely SFF'd. Though at least the people who said it would beat FFX are probably regretting that now.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/18/2010 11:01:42 PM | message detail
Majora's Mask has a great opportunity to show us what it's made of next round. Chrono Cross did not look scrubby at all, and it's got a huge night match advantage. If Majora can keep it in the 60s, I'll be happy.
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Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world!
transience | Posted 11/18/2010 11:29:24 PM | message detail
it needs to stay in the 60s? I'll hold you to that

Majora gets no respect because it didn't earn any last contest. Wind Waker has shown before that it's good.
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xyzzy
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/18/2010 11:36:09 PM | message detail

From: transience | #023
Wind Waker has shown before that it's good.


When? I don't think 2004 was a good year for Wind Waker. Even if you throw out the Starcraft match, it didn't show a ton of power against Prime in a 55/45 win that suggested it might not even hit 60% on Half-Life. Neither game has ever given one result that suggests it's stronger than the other. Even in the top 100, they're tied at the hip.
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Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world!
transience | Posted 11/19/2010 12:10:50 AM | message detail
WW has come out better in favourites polls, stands out more (it was the sole GC Zelda, and didn't come out at the end of the console's life), and performed equally in that top 10 list. MM got blasted by Pokemon and has never really had a good performance. I'll believe in it when I see proof. I haven't yet.

this is a far more impressive result than beating up on Wii Sports. anything could murder Wii Sports.
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xyzzy
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/19/2010 1:06:12 AM | message detail
Speaking of, do we think Wii Sports gets last in the stats?
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Stop calling, I don't wanna think anymore
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AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 11/19/2010 1:09:09 AM | message detail

From: transience | #025
WW has come out better in favourites polls, stands out more (it was the sole GC Zelda, and didn't come out at the end of the console's life), and performed equally in that top 10 list. MM got blasted by Pokemon and has never really had a good performance. I'll believe in it when I see proof. I haven't yet.

this is a far more impressive result than beating up on Wii Sports. anything could murder Wii Sports.


While I'm inclined to believe WW might be stronger than WW, using favorites polls is a joke.

MM and OoT are intrinsically tied together way more than any two console games. They're the same console, same age group, same fanbase. Of course OoT will SFF Majora in those favorites polls.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/19/2010 1:10:25 AM | message detail
Nah, it'll beat at least a handful of games. MM/GSC/WW will do well enough against each other and against FFX to keep it from getting too buried. No Mercy is my pick to finish last. Fire Emblem might get SFF'd by Pokemon, which is going to get crushed by Brawl, which will get 60/40'd by Melee.
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Yoblazer: http://8board.webs.com/ariel.jpg
Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world!
pjbasis | Posted 11/19/2010 1:19:29 AM | message detail
Maaan WW barely staying above 65. Hopefully the morning vote will come and help it back up.

Funny, I'm more concerned with getting my guest accuracy point then if my battle points were riding on this.
ZFS | Posted 11/19/2010 1:25:21 AM | message detail
Zelda doing great today. I figured God of War II might be able to push something closer to 40% here, but Wind Waker with nearly a doubling is pretty good.

Also, I'd put myself in the WW > MM camp. MM has this almost cult-like fanbase, but I think it's an often forgotten game because it trailed near the end of the N64's lifespan and went in such a different direction. People have really warmed up to WW over time, and with how recent Zelda games have been, I'd say it's only gotten more popular. Think they're close, but WW should be the more popular of the two.

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voltch | Posted 11/19/2010 3:17:13 AM | message detail
Well if a gamecub game can do this well, my hopes for ToS>GoW are looking better >_>.
Still. this contest, so far all 3 zelda games have looked good, but FFX/Crystal haven't quite hit the high numbers we wanted.
I'll wait for round 2, but so far Melee will look to win this easy.
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Nyoro~n
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 11/19/2010 5:44:52 AM | message detail
@Big Bob: Who the hell cares if it's a "proper" Zelda game or not? Majora's Mask is essentially the last hurrah for classic Nintendo before they started releasing strings of games with variations of the same problems. Blows Wind Waker and Twilight Princess out of the water, and even gives Ocarina of Time a run for its money.

I'm playing Majora's Mask right now and I actually like the emphasis on sidequests, though it does mean using StrategyWiki to cheat a little. Also could serve as a gateway to stuff like World of Warcraft.
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Currently Playing: StarCraft, Zelda: Ocarina of Time
pjbasis | Posted 11/19/2010 5:46:45 AM | message detail
Just realized Pikmin 2 isn't in the contest.

aghastface
voltch | Posted 11/19/2010 5:49:38 AM | message detail

From: pjbasis | #029
Just realized Pikmin 2 isn't in the contest.

aghastface


Saves it from getting embarrassed imo.
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*Shakes Fist*
pjbasis | Posted 11/19/2010 5:59:48 AM | message detail
So...does God of War have a better day vote than Zelda?

WW has not been rising.
voltch | Posted 11/19/2010 6:09:24 AM | message detail
There ain't gonna be a day vote to speak of in this match.
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Nyoro~n
Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/19/2010 6:13:54 AM | message detail
I'm pretty sure we can all agree Advance Wars wouldn't get near 45% on GoW2 right?

Good old Zelda. Keeping the fear alive.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/19/2010 6:16:48 AM | message detail
People can still argue MM vs WW (though it's pretty obvious in my mind), but there's no denying that the winner of this match is getting to the semis
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HaRRicH | Posted 11/19/2010 6:31:58 AM | message detail

From: voltch | #034
Saves it from getting embarrassed imo


Too late, it was in the vote-ins.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4048


Anyway, great showing from LoZ:WW. This is the best anti-GSC evidence we've had about this division yet. That said, I'm still favoring GSC here until we see it face a non-Nintendo opponent...which it can't do until MGS3/4, apparently. Damn. We'll get two more legit LoZ-showings from MM/WW before Pokemon's really tested, at least.
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Heart Epona.
695924 | Posted 11/19/2010 6:48:41 AM | message detail
Ok GSC still got this. But if GSC wins the division it might not even stop at FFX.
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lol opinions
charmander6000 | Posted 11/19/2010 6:57:41 AM | message detail
Match LXII: (6) Assassin’s Creed II vs. (11) ICO

Information

Name: Assassin’s Creed II
Year: 2009
Previous Performance: N/A

Name: ICO
Year: 2001
Previous Performance: N/A

Analysis

To summarize this match Assassin’s Creed II is a stronger version of Assassin’s Creed while ICO is a much, much weaker version of Shadow of the Colossus. I would take Assassin’s Creed over Shadow of the Colossus so you can only imagine what Assassin’s Creed II is going to do to ICO. ICO making the contest is quite surprising though, I didn’t think people remembered the game.

ICO is loved by pretty much the same reason Shadow of the Colossus is loved, for its artistic ability. The main difference is that Shadow of the Colossus is known by the people while ICO was nowhere as big back then and it has had nine years to sink into more obscurity. Personally I wouldn’t be surprised if ICO ended up being one of the weakest entrants in the contest.

Assassin’s Creed II, while unlucky to have an opponent as strong as Wind Waker next round does have decent strength and what Assassin’s Creed did to Metal Gear Solid 4 earlier this round only helps the idea. While the game isn’t the strongest I could see it breaking 70% due to ICO’s weakness. I wonder if ICO fans will come and whine during this match saying that the game was pure art, it happened to Shadow of the Colossus last contest.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Assassin’s Creed II > ICO

charmander6000’s Prediction: Assassin’s Creed II wins, 70.18% - 29.82%

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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 52/60 Today's Matches: LoZ: WW & AC2
Billy Blaze | Posted 11/19/2010 7:27:26 AM | message detail
Even with this result, I can't help but think MM>WW>GSC.

It seems weird, especially when the last games contest would make the opposite seem true. I guess I just can't trust 4way stats or comparison in any way. It's like trusting the vote ins!

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Redtooth
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/19/2010 8:02:44 AM | message detail
Even with this result, I can't help but think MM>WW>GSC.

It seems weird, especially when the last games contest would make the opposite seem true. I guess I just can't trust 4way stats or comparison in any way. It's like trusting the vote ins!


Finally someone can look at the results we've seen and not muck it up with personal bracket-based bias.

I salute you
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/19/2010 8:07:11 AM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #043
Finally someone can look at the results we've seen and not muck it up with personal bracket-based bias.

I salute you


So what exactly do you look at the results we've seen with?
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Billy Blaze | Posted 11/19/2010 8:09:35 AM | message detail
I actually just wave my junk at the screen until it stops on a game, then I write it down and fight with reckless abandon for it in the stats topic.

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Redtooth
LOLContests | Posted 11/19/2010 8:09:43 AM | message detail
Finally someone can look at the results we've seen and not muck it up with personal bracket-based bias.

Don't know why I'm gonna try, but...

Wait, weren't you just comparing this to Mario Vs. Samus? Because it goes AGAINST the results we've seen in previous contests. If you go by previous results, than G/S/C is the favorite over at least MM, based on how close they were in R2 in 2009.
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"Ahem! There is *sand* on my *boot*!"--Kefka
Dr. Football beat me, Yesmar in the 2010 Guru Contest!
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 11/19/2010 8:59:38 AM | message detail
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lLu8gtWyK8g

It shall begin.
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Currently Playing: StarCraft, Zelda: Ocarina of Time
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/19/2010 9:00:28 AM | message detail
Assassin's Creed II 78.57%

11
ICO 21.43%

3
TOTAL VOTES 14

Expected a better start from ICO.
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Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world!
nintendogirl1 (Moderator) | Posted 11/19/2010 9:00:29 AM | message detail
Assassin's Creed II 85.71%

6
ICO 14.29%

1
TOTAL VOTES 7
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How bout dat board vote?
GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/19/2010 9:01:06 AM | message detail
AC2 won the early board vote?
weird.
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Oracle contest - 24th
Today's pick: Creed II - 66.75% Status: