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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 948

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Ultimaphazon | Posted 11/16/2010 1:22:48 PM | message detail
I don't think a game that has sold close to 1 million should be called niche.
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NoDicePwn | Posted 11/16/2010 1:24:35 PM | message detail
I don't think a game that has sold close to 1 million should be called niche.

So should Disgaea not be called niche either then?
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Epona > Any Western Character
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ZFS | Posted 11/16/2010 1:36:13 PM | message detail
Ignore Albion. He's doing what he always does.

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The whole object of travel is not to set foot on foreign land; it is at last to set foot on one's own country as a foreign land.
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/16/2010 1:39:55 PM | message detail
yeah how horrible, i back up my posts with facts and say that two games that sell the same amount of copies should either both be considered niche or neither should be considered niche

im such a troll
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Epona > Any Western Character
http://img1.immage.de/14117bfbec113942.gif
red sox 777 | Posted 11/16/2010 1:42:41 PM | message detail
I'd call Chrono Trigger niche too. Or at least, there isn't a line between niche and not-niche, it's just gradual levels of nicheness, with Japan-only visual novels at the top of the niche ladder and Wii Sports at the bottom.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
ZFS | Posted 11/16/2010 1:48:26 PM | message detail
If you think Disgaea and Shadow of the Colossus are comparable in the public mindset, you might as well be, yeah. To a US and European audience, there's no comparison between the two.

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A journey of a thousand miles must begin with a single step.
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/16/2010 1:54:59 PM | message detail
Even Gamefaqs has more "My owns" for Disgaea than Sotc (like 2500 vs 1700)

I think you're really overestimating how popular SotC is. I've never heard of it outside of top lists on gaming sites, and a lot of those top lists are super obscure games. Just cuz it reviews well doesn't mean its got a high playrate.
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Epona > Any Western Character
http://img1.immage.de/14117bfbec113942.gif
ZFS | Posted 11/16/2010 1:57:07 PM | message detail
Nearly a million people in the United States have played Shadow of the Colossus. Not gonna bother saying anything else if you think Disgaea is comparable -- a PS2 game that sold fewer than 60k units here.

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A journey of a thousand miles must begin with a single step.
charmander6000 | Posted 11/16/2010 1:57:32 PM | message detail
So after this poll, how do we feel about Portal? It did 71% on GoW2, which got like 58-60% on The Sims. If Portal can only get 60% on Shadow of the colossus, I'm worried about its chances against FFXII.

You shouldn't be, remember SotC would get 35% on RE4, meaning Portal would get almost 44% on RE4, which is much better than what FFXII did on TP.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 46/54 Today's Matches: MGS2 & SotC
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/16/2010 1:57:51 PM | message detail
Not gonna bother saying anything else if you think Disgaea is comparable -- a PS2 game that sold fewer than 60k units here.

uhh. It got greatest hits in America, meaning it needed to sell 400k in America. I think you're the one who is more off base about what is popular than I am!
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Epona > Any Western Character
http://img1.immage.de/14117bfbec113942.gif
charmander6000 | Posted 11/16/2010 1:58:35 PM | message detail
Also if you think SotC and Disgaea are comparable in the US market then you probably don't know the US market that well.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 46/54 Today's Matches: MGS2 & SotC
ZFS | Posted 11/16/2010 1:59:55 PM | message detail
The last numbers I saw from NPD were fewer than 100k, which was only a couple of years ago.

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The whole object of travel is not to set foot on foreign land; it is at last to set foot on one's own country as a foreign land.
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/16/2010 2:03:57 PM | message detail
It got a reprint in America due to demand a couple years after and it went onto sell enough to get greatest hits after that.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Sony_Greatest_Hits_games

"When the program came to PlayStation 2 in 2002, games could become Greatest Hits titles after selling at least 400,000 copies and being on the market for at least 9 months."

You'll see Disgaea is on that list. And as I'm sure you know, Greatest Hits in a NA only thing, so that only counts NA sales. You can't really argue with the facts, it sold at LEAST 400k, probably more once greatest hits came out. Probably 500k is a good estimate, plus another 100k or so in America with the PSP/DS versions

600k vs 750k (the numbers I found for Sotc in America) isn't a huge difference.
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Epona > Any Western Character
http://img1.immage.de/14117bfbec113942.gif
ZFS | Posted 11/16/2010 2:05:33 PM | message detail
I'm convinced Disgaea to beat SOTC and MGS2
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The whole object of travel is not to set foot on foreign land; it is at last to set foot on one's own country as a foreign land.
JJH777 | Posted 11/16/2010 2:10:40 PM | message detail
SotC was in a movie!
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NoDicePwn | Posted 11/16/2010 2:10:48 PM | message detail
-.- You and I both know sales don't equal strength. Theres games that sold less than Disgaea that would wallop almost any game in this contest (hello Chrono Trigger). So don't be all sarcastic like that
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Epona > Any Western Character
http://img1.immage.de/14117bfbec113942.gif
TheCodeisBosco | Posted 11/16/2010 2:22:50 PM | message detail
I didn't expect SotC to have a good ASV, but... man. This is pretty rough.

I'm looking forward to Chrono Cross/Dragon Quest tomorrow. If DQ impresses, that'll make me even more curious to see Slime in a Character Battle! Call me crazy, but I think the little dude could make a splash.

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CURRENT GOTY SCORE: 48
Still bummed about NSMBWii losing...
charmander6000 | Posted 11/16/2010 2:31:05 PM | message detail
Actually The Sims is winning the ASV.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 46/54 Today's Matches: MGS2 & SotC
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/16/2010 2:32:50 PM | message detail
One day, some day, we'll stop posting sales numbers as if they actually mean anything. Hopefully!
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fyrael | Posted 11/16/2010 2:53:25 PM | message detail
One day, some day, we'll stop posting sales numbers as if they actually mean anything. Hopefully!

They're posting those numbers because they're arguing about "nicheness," not contest strength. Those numbers actually DO mean something in the argument they're having.
charmander6000 | Posted 11/16/2010 2:57:05 PM | message detail
Sales don't really mean much either. As an example the US could have a large population of anime fans that would buy the game, just because the sales of a game may be decent doesn't mean the average person would recognize the game, only the hardcore fans would.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 46/54 Today's Matches: MGS2 & SotC
fyrael | Posted 11/16/2010 3:04:10 PM | message detail
I'm pretty sure that when your buyers can be described as "a large population," you can't really call that niche...
I don't particularly want to get involved in this though.
HaRRicH | Posted 11/16/2010 3:09:13 PM | message detail
This makes MGS2 look quite beatable...maybe not the favorite, but R2's not set in stone. I would have taken Sims > BT pre-contest, and I still might despite BT being the best showing we've seen from anything Banjo-related yet.

At the same time, it also makes Portal look less impressive...but Gears 2 > Sims and Portal beat Gears 2 worse than this, so that's okay. Portal's still the rightful favorite, but thinking FF12 wouldn't have a shot anymore was premature. Can't wait to see the statement Oblivion wants to make at Soul Calibur 2's expense.
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*obnoxiously encourages you to nominate Epona*
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/16/2010 3:31:45 PM | message detail

From: HaRRicH | #073
but R2's not set in stone.


Oh god

it also makes Portal look less impressive


Oh God
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transients | Posted 11/16/2010 3:32:11 PM | message detail
I would take Banjo over The Sims easy.
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xyzzy
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/16/2010 3:34:39 PM | message detail

From: HaRRicH | #073
This makes MGS2 look quite beatable...maybe not the favorite, but R2's not set in stone. I would have taken Sims > BT pre-contest, and I still might despite BT being the best showing we've seen from anything Banjo-related yet.

At the same time, it also makes Portal look less impressive...but Gears 2 > Sims and Portal beat Gears 2 worse than this, so that's okay. Portal's still the rightful favorite, but thinking FF12 wouldn't have a shot anymore was premature. Can't wait to see the statement Oblivion wants to make at Soul Calibur 2's expense.


Yeah, I was pretty shocked by Banjo doing good. It's been such a crappy series in the past. Maybe MGS2 is just weak, and this is an alarm bell for the entire division.
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Pondos | Posted 11/16/2010 3:50:45 PM | message detail
SotC with dat Reign Over Me factor

AKA dat Adam Sandler factor
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/16/2010 3:54:54 PM | message detail
Or maybe Banjo has been underrated.

SotC > MGS2 has always been a possible upset, it did pretty well last year too.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 46/54 Today's Matches: MGS2 & SotC
transients | Posted 11/16/2010 3:55:55 PM | message detail
I definitely considered SOTC over MGS2.
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xyzzy
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/16/2010 3:59:01 PM | message detail
Did Shadow of the Colossus seriously lose the ASV to The Sims?

XFD
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Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/16/2010 4:02:21 PM | message detail
Low-tier Nintendo did pretty well in the character contest earlier this year. Banjo got 25% on Pikachu, which depending on a) how strong you think Pikachu really was and b) how much, if any, SFF there was, can be seen as okay. Captain Falcon did 4% worse on Cloud than Ryu. I expect Banjo(-Tooie)'s half-decent when it's not on the end of SFF.

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I predict and analyse the Game of the Decade contest here:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56817040
Big Bob | Posted 11/16/2010 4:06:49 PM | message detail
Did Shadow of the Colossus seriously lose the ASV to The Sims?

XFD


XD a semi-obscure game losing the ASV to a massively selling casual game XD

Seriously, MGS2 would drop even worse here.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/16/2010 4:09:30 PM | message detail
Looking at the regional shifts, SotC would have likely done a smidgen better in a night match. This is a really fine performance, I kick myself in the face for touching my Oracle, but I still think MGS2 will enjoy a safe win.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/16/2010 4:12:30 PM | message detail
Did Shadow of the Colossus seriously lose the ASV to The Sims?

You thought SotC was going to win the ASV over The Sims?
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 46/54 Today's Matches: MGS2 & SotC
Big Bob | Posted 11/16/2010 4:20:39 PM | message detail
Let's do some comparing:

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=3466&type=2&seconds=60&max=0

Metal Gear Solid 2 holds up well in the afternoon, but just look what it's up against. FFX, Silent Hill 2, Morrowind? All of those are night games, with the slight exception of Morrowind.

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=3472&type=2&seconds=60&max=0

Shadow of the Colossus takes a huge dive in the afternoon, but once again, look what it's up against: Kingdom Hearts and Gears of War. Both games are HUGE ASV beasts; you could shove any game in there and it would fall.
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transients | Posted 11/16/2010 4:21:26 PM | message detail
yeah, SOTC has the better day vote. round 2 is a day match, too.
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xyzzy
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 11/16/2010 4:44:04 PM | message detail
SotC vs. Mass Effect who've you got?

And Ulti, this means that SotC could reach 45% or higher on MGS2. Would you REALLY be happy with that? Not to mention this is the "worst game ever" doubling an opponent.
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Currently Playing: StarCraft, Zelda: Ocarina of Time
Haste_2 | Posted 11/16/2010 4:53:03 PM | message detail
I never imagined MGS2 could struggle to beat Shadow of the Colossus. I go to NGamer's "lol x-stats" site and find that it predicts a victory of 57.19% for MGS2. After accounting for possible error in the x-stats, yearly variation, and the fact that this will be a day match next round, I am not so certain now (I'm still, like, 97% sure though). MGS2's ho-hum score on B-T doesn't help things.

In defense of MGS2, we can't forget that MGS3 nearly matched RE4 last game contest, which got about 65% against SotC.

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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 11/16/2010 5:15:54 PM | message detail
Shadow of the Colossus (2009g) has a strength of 24.10 against Base Link.
Banjo-Kazooie (2009g) has a strength of 11.71 against Base Link.


Shadow of the Colossus 75.71% 96,842
Banjo-Kazooie 24.29% 31,077
TOTAL VOTES 127,919

Shadow of the Colossus wins with 75.71% of the vote!
A 65,764 vote margin of victory.

Any objections, MGS2?
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Currently Playing: StarCraft, Zelda: Ocarina of Time
Greyfeld | Posted 11/16/2010 5:26:44 PM | message detail
lol x-stats
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/16/2010 5:37:56 PM | message detail
Let's ignore that Majora's Mask and Perfect Dark were in that match last year.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 46/54 Today's Matches: MGS2 & SotC
Greyfeld | Posted 11/16/2010 5:43:24 PM | message detail
So, Phoenix Wright, or MKW? In the last PW match, it had a higher percentage in Europe, Asia and Oceana, despite being up against a FInal Fantasy game. NSMBW showed a better night vote (hanging on for 5 hours by the votes coming in from Europe) than day vote, however even though MvC2 won the US, it only did so with just over 53%.

I don't know how popular MKW is compared to NSMBW, and I think that's the major problem for me right now.
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PSN - Aevio
Playing: Might & Magic: Clash of Heroes
charmander6000 | Posted 11/16/2010 5:53:22 PM | message detail
Mario is a day performer, only reason it did better in Europe in that match is because US really loves Marvel.

I would take Mario Kart Wii over NSMBW, but I wouldn't be surprised if the game suffered from Wii apathy.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 46/54 Today's Matches: MGS2 & SotC
VaultBoyAlbion | Posted 11/16/2010 7:08:31 PM | message detail
So are we expecting Ico to have any strength? I assumed that they were both just fodder games but obviously I was wrong about Sotc..
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Epona > Any Western Character
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/16/2010 7:09:17 PM | message detail
Nope.

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DFF
Pondos | Posted 11/16/2010 7:10:23 PM | message detail
Ico is going to get absolutely demolished.
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Mega is all like 'pew pew mother****ers' and X us all like 'pew pew but only if I have to' -ChidoriNoJutsu
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/16/2010 7:11:38 PM | message detail
I think SotC is more relevant than Ico ever was, even if they both appeal to that "zomg this is why gaming is art, I can justify my hobby to my peers now!" audience
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The 3DS will be $200 or I'm closing my account - Ngamer64
Pondos | Posted 11/16/2010 7:15:37 PM | message detail
Ico doesn't have the Adam Sandler factor though?

Can we make that a real thing?
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Mega is all like 'pew pew mother****ers' and X us all like 'pew pew but only if I have to' -ChidoriNoJutsu
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Pondos | Posted 11/16/2010 7:15:59 PM | message detail
Also, I don't know why that first question mark is there.
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Mega is all like 'pew pew mother****ers' and X us all like 'pew pew but only if I have to' -ChidoriNoJutsu
http://i30.tinypic.com/2pos8ir.jpg
charmander6000 | Posted 11/16/2010 8:06:44 PM | message detail
Match LVII: (1) The Legend of Zelda: Majora’s Mask vs. (16) Wii Sports

Information

Name: The Legend of Zelda: Majora’s Mask
Year: 2000
Previous Performance: SpC2k9 – 3rd in round 2

Name: Wii Sports
Year: 2006
Previous Performance: N/A

Analysis

I can’t believe SBAllen would throw Wii Sports away like that. While the game is likely not to be strong it would have been interesting to see how the game performs in a non-SFF environment. At least we could argue that the game may have a decent performance, but with Majora’s Mask that is more or less impossible to do. All he had to do was switch another 16 seed that isn’t going against a Nintendo game around.

Almost everyone that owns a Wii on GameFAQs owns and has played Wii Sports. Of course like many other games in this contest just because everyone has played it doesn’t mean that they’ll vote for it. Wii Sports probably gets most of its support from apathy and seeing that it’s up against a well known Nintendo title probably doesn’t help it.

There’s also the whole Wii hate thing going around and if there is a game that is more affected by this than the Mario series it would be Wii Sports. Over the past two years people have really turned on the system. Then again if people are avoiding Wii Sports like the plague then it wouldn’t have made this contest, outscoring other titles that made the contest in the process. Sure it was in the weakest vote-in, but when you have eleven other options and the Wii is supposed to be not cool then you would expect the game to perform pretty badly.

This match has potential in being the biggest blowout of the contest due to SFF. I’ve seen a lot of people think that Majora’s Mask could break 90%, but I think that might be too high of a standard. Twilight Princess was unable to break 90% on Wii Sports in the GotY poll and people were still high on the game. At the same time I don’t see Wii Sports breaking 20% due to SFF.

charmander6000’s Bracket: LoZ: Majora’s Mask > Wii Sports

charmander6000’s Prediction: LoZ: Majora’s Mask wins, 83.62% - 16.38%

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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 46/54 Today's Matches: MGS2 & SotC