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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 948

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Haste_2 | Posted 11/17/2010 7:45:30 PM | message detail
Okay, we're almost to the end of Round 2, and we have Round 1 data to estimate what will happen in all of Round 2's (semi-)debatable matches now.

I'd like you guys to rank the following from highest to lowest as far as how CONFIDENT you are in who will win the match (NOT what's on your bracket), and, of course, say which.

Batman vs. Team Fortress 2
Uncharted 2 vs. Street Fighter IV
Halo vs. Halo 3
Okami vs. Mega Man 9
God of War vs. Tales of Symphonia
GTA: San Andreas vs. Golden Sun
Persona 4 vs. Dead Rising
Portal vs. Final Fantasy XII
Paper Mario vs. World of Warcraft

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
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VaultBoyAlbion | Posted 11/17/2010 7:46:42 PM | message detail
Why would you think that?

I would always take mainline Mario titles over side titles on the same system. Like Mario 64 > Mario Kart 64, Mario Sunshine > Mario Kart Double Dash, and New Super Mario Bros > Mario Kart Wii. I just don't see a side game being more popular.
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Epona > Any Western Character
http://img1.immage.de/14117bfbec113942.gif
charmander6000 | Posted 11/17/2010 7:46:52 PM | message detail
I still have no idea why you expect NSMBW > MKWii. I wouldn't be surprised if MKWii could defeat SMG2 with the way the Wii has been.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 48/56 Today's Matches: LoZ: MM & CC
Achromatic | Posted 11/17/2010 7:47:21 PM | message detail
Batman vs. Team Fortress 2
Okami vs. Mega Man 9
God of War vs. Tales of Symphonia
Paper Mario vs. World of Warcraft
Halo vs. Halo 3
Portal vs. Final Fantasy XII
GTA: San Andreas vs. Golden Sun
Uncharted 2 vs. Street Fighter IV
Persona 4 vs. Dead Rising

bolded game is the only game on the right I have winning.

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Sir Chris
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/17/2010 7:47:24 PM | message detail
I wouldn't be surprised if MKWii could defeat SMG2 with the way the Wii has been.

*cough*

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DFF
Haste_2 | Posted 11/17/2010 7:47:45 PM | message detail
Saying NSMB > Mario Kart Wii is like saying Yoshi's Island > SMK.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Big Bob | Posted 11/17/2010 7:48:20 PM | message detail
Batman vs. Team Fortress 2 - Batman wins without a doubt
Uncharted 2 vs. Street Fighter IV - Uncharted wins, though I'm not 100% certain
Halo vs. Halo 3 - Halo 3 wins, and I will be the only one to call it!
Okami vs. Mega Man 9 - Okami easily
God of War vs. Tales of Symphonia - Tales won in the last contest, but God of War gets its revenge
GTA: San Andreas vs. Golden Sun - I had San Andreas in my bracket, but Iunno now
Persona 4 vs. Dead Rising - Persona has every disadvantage going into this match; if it's significantly stronger than TWEWY it has a chance, but otherwise...
Portal vs. Final Fantasy XII - Portal easily
Paper Mario vs. World of Warcraft - Could be a good one; leaning Paper Mario though.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/17/2010 7:49:41 PM | message detail
I would always take mainline Mario titles over side titles on the same system. Like Mario 64 > Mario Kart 64, Mario Sunshine > Mario Kart Double Dash, and New Super Mario Bros > Mario Kart Wii. I just don't see a side game being more popular.

Except that NSMBW is just as much of a side game as Mario RPG or Mario Kart. You're also taking the number one mainline Mario game of the gen, which would be Galaxy. Would you take Yoshi's Island over Super Mario Kart?

Actually I might.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 48/56 Today's Matches: LoZ: MM & CC
VaultBoyAlbion | Posted 11/17/2010 7:50:16 PM | message detail
Saying NSMB > Mario Kart Wii is like saying Yoshi's Island > SMK.

Eh, I wouldn't say either game right there would be a lock. I'd probably very slightly side with SMK, but Yoshis Island shouldn't be that weak. Too bad it was stuck with Mario 64 last contest or we could have seen if it was legit.
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Epona > Any Western Character
http://img1.immage.de/14117bfbec113942.gif
charmander6000 | Posted 11/17/2010 7:51:59 PM | message detail
I wouldn't be surprised if MKWii could defeat SMG2 with the way the Wii has been.

*cough*


There's a reason why Brawl and TP haven't been affected and that's because the Wii apathy didn't start until 2009. People are just no longer buying Wii games, doesn't change the fact that people bought the games before that.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 48/56 Today's Matches: LoZ: MM & CC
Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 11/17/2010 7:52:38 PM | message detail
I would always take mainline Mario titles over side titles on the same system. Like Mario 64 > Mario Kart 64, Mario Sunshine > Mario Kart Double Dash, and New Super Mario Bros > Mario Kart Wii. I just don't see a side game being more popular.

I don't see why that has to keep holding up forever. Also it's not like New Super Mario Bros is anything like Mario 64, Mario Sunshine or Mario Galaxy. I don't see why you would expect it to be compariable to those games. It might count as a part of the mainline Mario series but it's about as similar as any of the other spin off games.
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"Let me believe what you've always believed! That living is wonderful!"
"Thank you so much... Thank you for loving me."
red sox 777 | Posted 11/17/2010 7:55:32 PM | message detail
We got a good read on Yoshi's Island last contest- it got just under 30% on Chrono Trigger. Earthbound and Lufia 2 probably don't change that much, because Earthbound is both a Nintendo game and a SNES RPG, and Lufia 2 got so few votes it hardly matters.

Super Mario Kart got....27% on LTTP in a 4-way Nintendo SFF poll. Well that's pretty inconclusive; it comes down to how much SFF LTTP got on SMK.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
Greyfeld | Posted 11/17/2010 7:55:52 PM | message detail
Batman vs. Team Fortress 2
Uncharted 2 vs. Street Fighter IV
Halo vs. Halo 3
Okami vs. Mega Man 9
God of War vs. Tales of Symphonia
GTA: San Andreas vs. Golden Sun
Persona 4 vs. Dead Rising
Portal vs. Final Fantasy XII
Paper Mario vs. World of Warcraft


Okami
Persona 4
Paper Mario
Batman
God of War
Halo CE
Uncharted 2
Portal
Golden Sun

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PSN - Aevio
Playing: Might & Magic: Clash of Heroes
cirRca | Posted 11/17/2010 7:57:53 PM | message detail

From: Greyfeld | #463
Batman vs. Team Fortress 2
Uncharted 2 vs. Street Fighter IV
Halo vs. Halo 3
Okami vs. Mega Man 9
God of War vs. Tales of Symphonia
GTA: San Andreas vs. Golden Sun
Persona 4 vs. Dead Rising
Portal vs. Final Fantasy XII
Paper Mario vs. World of Warcraft


Okami
Persona 4
Paper Mario
Batman
God of War
Halo CE
Uncharted 2
Portal
Golden Sun


Remember that Tales has the night vote.
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I've abandoned my child! I've abandoned my child! I've abandoned my boy!
http://i.imgur.com/TptjZ.jpg
Bigwig_rah | Posted 11/17/2010 8:00:48 PM | message detail
Batman vs. Team Fortress 2
Uncharted 2 vs. Street Fighter IV
Halo vs. Halo 3
Okami vs. Mega Man 9
God of War vs. Tales of Symphonia
GTA: San Andreas vs. Golden Sun
Persona 4 vs. Dead Rising
Portal vs. Final Fantasy XII
Paper Mario vs. World of Warcraft


Batman
Okami
Portal
Paper Mario
Golden Sun
God of War
Street Fighter IV
Halo 3
Persona 4
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See You Space Cowboy...
charmander6000 | Posted 11/17/2010 8:01:30 PM | message detail
Match LIX: (5) Phoenix Wright vs. (12) Mario Kart Wii

Information

Name: Phoenix Wright
Year: 2005
Previous Performance: SpC2k9 – 4th in round 1

Name: Mario Kart Wii
Year: 2008
Previous Performance: N/A

Analysis

It’s pretty common to see people complain about things like Halo always being over seeded yet no one says anything when Phoenix Wright does the same thing. While the board is trying its hardest to try and hype this match there really isn’t much reason to think that this match will be close. Yes the smaller Wii titles have performed terribly, however Mario Kart Wii can be pretty weak and still ride through this match.

The main argument for Phoenix Wright is that it may have been SFF in the previous contest and may actually have strength. Pokemon has done a great job showing us that handhelds and consoles don’t really mix plus the way Final Fantasy IX crushed Phoenix Wright 3 earlier this round doesn’t give us the impression that Phoenix Wright could be stronger than what last year’s numbers suggest.

We have no information due to Brawl always being in the polls, but from the way people talk about the game it’s safe to assume that Mario Kart Wii should rank at around Mario Kart DS, sadly that game was fed to Brawl earlier last round, but its performance in the vote-in suggests that the game should be at around high fodder.

Mario Kart Wii shouldn’t have much of a problem winning and breaking 60% is very possible despite what some of the Wii games have been performing. The board and even other parts of GameFAQs love the Phoenix Wright series and despite always being over seeded they always get paired up with something that is clearly stronger than them. Phoenix Wright could beat at least half of these 12 seeds yet it gets stuck with this one.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Mario Kart Wii > Phoenix Wright

charmander6000’s Prediction: Mario Kart Wii wins, 59.85% - 40.15%

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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 48/56 Today's Matches: LoZ: MM & CC
Greyfeld | Posted 11/17/2010 8:06:05 PM | message detail
Remember that Tales has the night vote.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3470&region=ASI
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3470&region=EUR

Asia's lack of interest in ToS all but cancels out the increase of votes from Europe. Even if ToS gains during the dead hours, the late North America vote should push GoW ahead during the first few hours to keep Tales out of range of a lead change.
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PSN - Aevio
Playing: Might & Magic: Clash of Heroes
VaultBoyAlbion | Posted 11/17/2010 8:06:07 PM | message detail
but from the way people talk about the game it%u2019s safe to assume that Mario Kart Wii should rank at around Mario Kart DS, sadly that game was fed to Brawl earlier last round, but its performance in the vote-in suggests that the game should be at around high fodder.

Hmm, would we take Legend of Dragoon or Battlefront 2 to get 55%+ here against Phoenix Wright?
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Epona > Any Western Character
http://img1.immage.de/14117bfbec113942.gif
charmander6000 | Posted 11/17/2010 8:06:57 PM | message detail
Yes, easily.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 48/56 Today's Matches: LoZ: MM & CC
red sox 777 | Posted 11/17/2010 8:08:01 PM | message detail
Mario Kart Wii should be below Mario Kart DS. There's a big group that talks of Mario Kart DS as the best Mario Kart, whereas no one seems to like Mario Kart Wii too much. I'm actually kind of tempted to switch to Phoenix Wright right now.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
red sox 777 | Posted 11/17/2010 8:17:55 PM | message detail
The Jecht match makes me wonder, too. Jecht is a 3rd tier character from a 2nd tier Square game, whereas Mario Kart Wii is a.....6th tier Nintendo game (1st: OOT, 2nd: RBY/LTTP/SM64/Smash, 3rd: MM/WW/GE/etc, 4th: MK64/LA/MP/SMG/etc, 5th: SF64/PM/etc) if I were to place it that way. So, 5 tiers down the Square ladder vs. 6 tiers down the Nintendo ladder- obviously that isn't very precise and these tiers are pretty arbitrary but it's as good a way of measuring unknowns as any.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
Haste_2 | Posted 11/17/2010 8:30:38 PM | message detail
Here we go... here are my own rankings, from most confident to least:

Batman vs. Team Fortress 2...yep, pretty obvious if you ask me. Could Fable get 72.5% on Psychonauts, or a game that got tripled by Call of Duty 4? I doubt it.

Okami vs. Mega Man 9... everything for here on out I'm not overly confident with. I think Okami would handle Demon's Souls with ease, though, so Okami shouldn't have major problems with MM9.

God of War vs. Tales of Symphonia... GoW just flat out looked more impressive last round. Tales simply has a mild night vote advantage in hopes of grabbing a victory, but.... it only got 52% against Resident Evil 5 in the night.

Halo vs. Halo 3... okay, I don't know how the Halo fanbases work, but Halo flat out looks stronger. As long as no rSFF takes place Halo should take it.

Uncharted 2 vs. Street Fighter IV - the night match here may give SFIV a small shot, but it's hard to imagine UC2 struggling with Sonic Adventure 2.

Persona 4 vs. Dead Rising - it's still hard to gauge the games, but we do know that Dead Rising squeaked a victory over TWEWY. However, Dead Rising is going to have a day match, which could make a couple percentage points of difference.

Paper Mario vs. World of Warcraft - Keep in mind that both x-stats and their performances from BGE 2009 heavily favor World of Warcraft. Heavily. (Not quite as much after accounting for same fanbase factor) However, Paper Mario looks much more impressive as of THIS contest. Plus, I can't imagine Paper Mario getting only 58% on Animcal Crossing (I could be wrong). Paper Mario gets a day match to look forward to next round, as well.

Portal vs. Final Fantasy XII - FFXII was stronger than Portal in BGE 2009, no doubt. Things probably changed, with both Portal and HL2 scoring high, but I still won't count FFXII out.

GTA: San Andreas vs. Golden Sun - I still have difficulty seeing Golden Sun having the strength to match a GTA game... this game was nearly on par with God of War last contest, for those of you who think God of War is worth something. Golden Sun looked very impressive; of course, Ratchet & Clank is low fodder. The day vote probably benefits GS a bit more.

Whoa, that took a while.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Rasetz | Posted 11/17/2010 8:32:09 PM | message detail
Aww... no love for TF2?
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Feel the wrath of my blade - Glow Soul
HaRRicH | Posted 11/17/2010 8:35:53 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #462
Super Mario Kart got....27% on LTTP in a 4-way Nintendo SFF poll. Well that's pretty inconclusive; it comes down to how much SFF LTTP got on SMK.


SMK was dead-even with SM twice, so wherever SM is should be where SMK is. SM got 26% on LoZ:LttP in 2004 along with the 27% it got again in BGE2 (and 30.07% on it if LoZ:LA is in the poll). Too bad we never got a good read on SM!

Hell, we can't even estimate SMK off of MK64 either, or MK:DS while we're at it. MKW's going to be the cleanest read we've had on a Mario Kart game yet, and the best MK-related read since the Series Contest...which was still misleading since SMK and MK64 should beat any Mega Man game! Phoenix Wright won't be the best measuring stick, but at least it'll be better than next round's murdering against GSC.
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Epona: pulling off the "horse-face" better than Sarah Jessica Parker since 1998.
http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg
charmander6000 | Posted 11/17/2010 8:55:11 PM | message detail
So how long does Phoenix Wright lead with the board vote? I'd give it three minutes.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 48/56 Today's Matches: LoZ: MM & CC
FFDragon | Posted 11/17/2010 8:56:05 PM | message detail
12 hours.
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If you wake up at a different time, in a different place, could you wake up as a different person? [HERO'S PLUNGE]
http://img.imgcake.com/wesker.gif
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/17/2010 8:56:24 PM | message detail
11 hours, 55 minutes.

Now wouldn't that be the worst result ever?

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DFF
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/17/2010 8:56:33 PM | message detail
I'm liking this SNV performance by Chrono Cross.

So how long does Phoenix Wright lead with the board vote? I'd give it three minutes.

I say one minute at the most.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!
pjbasis | Posted 11/17/2010 8:57:12 PM | message detail
2 minutes
Bigwig_rah | Posted 11/17/2010 8:57:54 PM | message detail
Uncharted 2 vs. Street Fighter IV - the night match here may give SFIV a small shot, but it's hard to imagine UC2 struggling with Sonic Adventure 2.

SA2 >>> Legend of Dragoon.
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See You Space Cowboy...
charmander6000 | Posted 11/17/2010 9:00:24 PM | message detail
Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney 54.55% 12
Mario Kart Wii 45.45% 10
TOTAL VOTES 22

Bad start for PW.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 50/58 Today's Matches: MKWii & Pokemon GSC
GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/17/2010 9:00:51 PM | message detail
this match will be EPIC
for the first 2 minutes
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Oracle contest - 28th
Today's pick: Mario Kart Wii - 58.89% Status:
charmander6000 | Posted 11/17/2010 9:01:09 PM | message detail
Chrono Cross 60.50%

I'd thought it would do better
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 50/58 Today's Matches: MKWii & Pokemon GSC
pjbasis | Posted 11/17/2010 9:01:10 PM | message detail
LOL not even a minute.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/17/2010 9:01:19 PM | message detail
Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney 60%
6
Mario Kart Wii 40%
4
TOTAL VOTES 10

Only 60% within the first 10 votes, pfft
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/17/2010 9:01:28 PM | message detail
damn mario fanboys
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Epona > Any Western Character
http://img1.immage.de/14117bfbec113942.gif
Bigwig_rah | Posted 11/17/2010 9:01:36 PM | message detail
PW down already :(
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See You Space Cowboy...
charmander6000 | Posted 11/17/2010 9:01:49 PM | message detail
lol PW, couldn't even survive for 2 minutes.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 50/58 Today's Matches: MKWii & Pokemon GSC
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/17/2010 9:02:01 PM | message detail
One of these days, GameFAQs

One of these days

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DFF
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/17/2010 9:02:16 PM | message detail
B8 let PW down. How the mighty have fallen.
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The 3DS will be $200 or I'm closing my account - Ngamer64
LOLContests | Posted 11/17/2010 9:02:28 PM | message detail
This is gonna get ugly after the board vote wears off. How is Phoenix Wright himself so popular anyway?
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"Ahem! There is *sand* on my *boot*!"--Kefka
Dr. Football beat me, Yesmar in the 2010 Guru Contest!
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/17/2010 9:02:47 PM | message detail
lol PW, couldn't even survive for 2 minutes.

Last time I saw PW in the lead was a few seconds before the end of the first minute. So my prediction came true after all.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!
charmander6000 | Posted 11/17/2010 9:02:50 PM | message detail
Funny thing is that the other 12 seeds are all weaker than MKWii.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 50/58 Today's Matches: MKWii & Pokemon GSC
charmander6000 | Posted 11/17/2010 9:03:40 PM | message detail
PW pulled back, MKWii had 54%, now it has 52%
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 50/58 Today's Matches: MKWii & Pokemon GSC
WhiteLens | Posted 11/17/2010 9:04:07 PM | message detail
Ouch Phoenix Wright, didn't even last as long as he did against Jecht.
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http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=207
HaRRicH | Posted 11/17/2010 9:04:15 PM | message detail
Bracket-vote killed the board's court-sim star.
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What do Ocarina of Time, Majora's Mask, and Twilight Princess have in common? EPONA!
http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg
swordz9 | Posted 11/17/2010 9:04:40 PM | message detail
60.5% got CC vs DQVIII correct.
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http://myanimelist.net/animelist/swordz9
GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/17/2010 9:05:12 PM | message detail
Play Space Station Silicon Valley
Haste_2 | Posted 11/17/2010 9:05:26 PM | message detail
Someone make an awesome Objection post from that one site. Hang in there, Phoenix! :[

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
XxSoulxX | Posted 11/17/2010 9:05:28 PM | message detail
play your face
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"Calling Pokemon RBY a top 10 game was the most insane contest jibba-jabba ever
Woe unto he who sig bets with the near-invincible Lord High creativename