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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 948

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Not_Wylvane | Posted 11/16/2010 9:40:57 AM | message detail
I always suck at doing these.

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Solid Snake, Sephiroth, Mario, Missingno, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.
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Wylvane
turbopuns is a horrible user.
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 11/16/2010 9:42:01 AM | message detail
Wanted to ask this here since the other topic's about full, though. Assuming SotC ends with 70% on The Sims, how does SotC rank with the other games based on the vote-ins?
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Wylvane
beavis666x2 is a horrible user.
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/16/2010 9:44:43 AM | message detail

From: WarThaNemesis2 | #496
Quick, based on FFX/VJ and SotC/Sims and VJ/Sims from the vote-in, what does SotC get on FFX? >_>


It wins.

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DFF
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/16/2010 9:45:22 AM | message detail
SotC > Melee in the finals.

Ulti loses his mind.
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695924 | Posted 11/16/2010 9:46:00 AM | message detail
FFX is weaksause. I'm having trouble seeing it getting past FFIX now.
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lol opinions
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/16/2010 9:46:20 AM | message detail
Third or fourth day in a row where I should not have touched my Oracle. Ah well, worth it in this case.

SNAAAAAAAAKE?

No, AGRO!
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paulg235 | Posted 11/16/2010 9:46:24 AM | message detail
lol Missingno in the Noble Nine and Crono being removed.
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The Gamer In Me
In December 2010, a new guru will rise.
azuarc | Posted 11/16/2010 9:46:46 AM | message detail
repost from last thread p.50:


So out of the remains of round 1, (e.g. the northwest division,) what are we still looking at as a bracketbuster? Is there any consensus yet on what we expect out of CC/DQ8? What about TTYD/Gears? I think I feel fairly comfortable with the over-seed on the other matches (except PW/MKW, where I anticipate Phoenix will lose,) but those two seem worthy of discussion.

CC/DQ8 - My bracket has DQ8, but it would appear I'm in the minority there, at least on the guru listings. I never played either, but I've played their predecessors. I fully respect CT and the DQ series, so I don't have much in the way of personal instincts to lead me here.

TTYD/Gears - Paper Mario wins np. Gears of War 2 loses np. TTYD vs Gears 1 is a little more circumspect IMHO. I fully expect GoW1 to outperform GoW2, so using the slaughter that was Portal/GoW2 doesn't seem fair to me. (Plus, Portal kills.) Does the Nintendo game win because it's Nintendo and/or dat top option? Does it win of its own accord?
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/16/2010 9:47:18 AM | message detail
FFIX>FFX would be the greatest result we've ever had.

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DFF
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/16/2010 9:47:45 AM | message detail
SotC > MGS2, Ulti on suicide watch

and the obligatory LOL FFX.
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"if only there were some way I could have sex" - Smartmuffin
Not_Wylvane | Posted 11/16/2010 9:49:30 AM | message detail

From: WarThaNemesis2 | #004
SotC > Melee in the finals.

Ulti loses his mind.


Ulti then claims SotC was actually his favorite game the entire time and his SotC hatred was one incredibly elaborate troll.

From: paulg235 | #007
lol Missingno in the Noble Nine and Crono being removed.


I was hoping no one would notice that! Thought it'd have been hilarious for it to continue for a few more topics with that going on.

Hey, maybe someone will forget to change it by the time the next topic comes around.
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Wylvane
maplejet is a horrible user.
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/16/2010 9:50:27 AM | message detail
CC/DQ8 - My bracket has DQ8, but it would appear I'm in the minority there, at least on the guru listings. I never played either, but I've played their predecessors. I fully respect CT and the DQ series, so I don't have much in the way of personal instincts to lead me here.

TTYD/Gears - Paper Mario wins np. Gears of War 2 loses np. TTYD vs Gears 1 is a little more circumspect IMHO. I fully expect GoW1 to outperform GoW2, so using the slaughter that was Portal/GoW2 doesn't seem fair to me. (Plus, Portal kills.) Does the Nintendo game win because it's Nintendo and/or dat top option? Does it win of its own accord?


I'd be very surprised if anything Dragon Quest related could beat a Chrono game people have played, and TTYD beating Gears has been dependent on Gears being weak from the start. Gears 2 bombing was a bad sign for Gears 1, but SotC doing this well makes Gears' laughable Games Contest performance not look as nearly as bad.

Right now I'd say CC and TTYD are the favorites.
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Ultimaphazon | Posted 11/16/2010 9:50:35 AM | message detail
I think CC/DQ8 will be the closesgt match we'll see until the end of round 1. Most people are favoring Cross, and I have Cross in my bracket as well, but I could see it going either way. I had planned on banking there, but Marvel destroyed my streak, so I'll just gamble on CC, without any confidence though.

And yeah, TTYD and Mario Kart should win their matches.
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A pro isn't someone who sacrifices himself for his job. That's just a fool. - Reno, FFVII
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lightsout06 | Posted 11/16/2010 9:51:07 AM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #009
FFIX>FFX would be the greatest result we've ever had.


FFX might look weak but it is still going to limp its way to the finals
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No way FFX will lose GotD
Not_Wylvane | Posted 11/16/2010 9:52:43 AM | message detail
^ That post/sig combo is just great.
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Wylvane
Coffee Ninja is a horrible user.
SuperAngelo128 | Posted 11/16/2010 9:53:12 AM | message detail
FF9 over 10 would be intersting
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~ Ange
abdou | Posted 11/16/2010 9:55:27 AM | message detail
FFX will lose Pokemon in the semi
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Signature under construction
abdou | Posted 11/16/2010 9:56:02 AM | message detail
To*
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Signature under construction
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/16/2010 9:56:52 AM | message detail

From: Not_Wylvane | #015
^ That post/sig combo is just great.


I was gonna comment on that lol

I have this mental image of the party of FFX beating 251 Pokemon from G/S/C. Then, as they are on their last legs, they turn around and see the cast of Smash Bros standing behind them.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/16/2010 9:58:01 AM | message detail
FFX has absolutely no chance against GSC.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/16/2010 10:03:46 AM | message detail
Awesome result. No way is The Sims equal to Banjo. MGS2 to kill next round.
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Aprosenf | Posted 11/16/2010 10:07:08 AM | message detail
Wow, Bacon picked Banjo over MGS2?
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If life gives you lemons, make lemonade. Then try to find someone whose life has given them vodka.
VaultBoyAlbion | Posted 11/16/2010 10:08:36 AM | message detail
Awesome result. No way is The Sims equal to Banjo. MGS2 to kill next round.

Wait, why is your most hated game blowing out a game an awesome result? I thought you'd be upset over this
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Epona > Any Western Character
http://img1.immage.de/14117bfbec113942.gif
WhiteLens | Posted 11/16/2010 10:09:53 AM | message detail

From: Aprosenf | #022
Wow, Bacon picked Banjo over MGS2?


I hope he also picked The Sims >_>
But it looks like he still picked MGS2 for the battle.
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Only on GameFAQs would criticallly acclaimed PC games lose to niche JRPGs
Go Us!
TRE Public Account | Posted 11/16/2010 11:01:39 AM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
52------3------------100.00
51------22----------100.00
50------109--------94.50
49------267--------95.51
48------563--------93.61
47------1031------95.05
46------1712------94.98
45------2120------92.31
44------2426------91.55
43------2598------89.57
42------2736------88.23
41------2628------87.60
40------2653------87.00
39------2444------85.23
38------2064------85.13
37------1814------82.58
36------1475------81.63
35------1242------78.82
34------866--------78.87
33------644--------77.48
32------488--------75.20
31------362--------69.89
30------265--------64.53
29------167--------71.86
28------127--------61.42
27------93----------62.37
26------68----------50.00
25------38----------52.63
24------23----------73.91
23------32----------59.38
22------19----------36.84
21------10----------50.00
20------18----------38.89
19------7------------71.43
18------6------------16.67
17------9------------33.33
16------3------------33.33
15------9------------55.56
14------7------------42.86
13------7------------14.29
12------12----------8.33
11------11----------18.18
10------13----------0.00
9--------17----------5.88
8--------8------------0.00
7--------13----------15.38
6--------2------------0.00
5--------4------------0.00
4--------1------------0.00
3--------2------------0.00
2--------10----------20.00
1--------22----------0.00
0--------24----------4.17

Another pretty easy match. -3s and better all get the match right. -10s and better stayed above 90.

Only 1 person fell off the Top 50. psychosil315 did not have MGS2 beating Banjo-Tooie.
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Dr_Football punted my bracket across the field.
Congrats to Dr_Football for winning the Character Battle 8 Guru Contest!
Greyfeld | Posted 11/16/2010 11:07:12 AM | message detail
I'll be honest, I would throw away my entire bracket, just to see Ulti's reaction if SotC won this GOTD contest.
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PSN - Aevio
Playing: Might & Magic: Clash of Heroes
Oxbridge | Posted 11/16/2010 11:17:19 AM | message detail
You threw it away the second you picked Paper Mario>MGS3.
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Congratulations to Dr_Football, the Guru champion for 2010.
red sox 777 | Posted 11/16/2010 11:25:09 AM | message detail
I was hoping no one would notice that! Thought it'd have been hilarious for it to continue for a few more topics with that going on.

Hey, maybe someone will forget to change it by the time the next topic comes around.


Knowing how these topics work, the next topic creator will probably forget. It usually takes a few topics after a change is intended before it's actually made.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
red sox 777 | Posted 11/16/2010 11:26:18 AM | message detail
Also, if I didn't know that this site was NintendoFAQs, I'd have thought the Sims would beat Banjo Tooie easily. I mean, it's one of the highest selling, most influential games ever against.......not even Banjo Kazooie, but its sequel.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/16/2010 11:31:59 AM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #029
Also, if I didn't know that this site was NintendoFAQs, I'd have thought the Sims would beat Banjo Tooie easily. I mean, it's one of the highest selling, most influential games ever against.......not even Banjo Kazooie, but its sequel.


Banjo-Tooie would demolish The Sims, which is why today is awesome. I want MGS2 to beat SotC, not The Sims.
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NoDicePwn | Posted 11/16/2010 11:49:19 AM | message detail
So after this poll, how do we feel about Portal? It did 71% on GoW2, which got like 58-60% on The Sims. If Portal can only get 60% on Shadow of the colossus, I'm worried about its chances against FFXII.
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Epona > Any Western Character
http://img1.immage.de/14117bfbec113942.gif
eaglesarebeasts | Posted 11/16/2010 11:53:16 AM | message detail
SotC will beat ALL of the MGS games!
Big Bob | Posted 11/16/2010 11:59:00 AM | message detail
The percentages are comparable, and you'd think Banjo-Tooie > The Sims, but that's not the whole case. B-T's clearly a day game and MGS2 is clearly a night game, so the outcome would be skewed in a night match in MGS2's favor. Also The Sims is definitely a day game, but I would think SotC would be more balanced. It's hard to tell; in the last contest it was paired with the beastly KH and Gears of War day votes.

The fact that MGS2 and SotC will be fighting in the day is definitely a point in the latter's favor; I'm looking forward to that match.
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Pondos | Posted 11/16/2010 12:09:58 PM | message detail

From: ExThaNemesis | #020
FFX has absolutely no chance against GSC.


I would wait until we actually see GSC in action before actually making such a definitive statement.

GSC could still lose to MM or any game it has to face after that.
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TheCodeisBosco | Posted 11/16/2010 12:15:27 PM | message detail
I would wait until we actually see GSC in action before actually making such a definitive statement.

Honestly, I think we'll have to wait until Round Two before we know what FFX has to deal with. G/S/C will most likely underperform this round due to its match picture (Crystal boxart).

Also, is it just me, or would Plants vs. Zombies > The Sims be a reasonable upset? :D

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CURRENT GOTY SCORE: 48
Still bummed about Marvel > NSMBWii. :(
ZFS | Posted 11/16/2010 12:15:48 PM | message detail
Awesome result today. I originally had SOTC beating MGS2, but ended up changing it. I don't think SOTC will pull it off, but it'll be close.
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vcharon | Posted 11/16/2010 12:16:12 PM | message detail
It's hard to believe anyone actually thought this might be an interesting match.
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:>
TheCodeisBosco | Posted 11/16/2010 12:19:46 PM | message detail
MGS2 should still be fine. It ended up doing pretty well on Banjo in the end, and it also has DAT TOP OPTION on its side!

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CURRENT GOTY SCORE: 48
Still bummed about Marvel > NSMBWii. :(
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/16/2010 12:20:48 PM | message detail
It's hard to believe anyone actually thought this might be an interesting match.

Well, I assumed Wander = Shadow of the Colossus. Seems like he's just a character nobody cares about though.
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Epona > Any Western Character
http://img1.immage.de/14117bfbec113942.gif
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/16/2010 12:36:27 PM | message detail

From: NoDicePwn | #039
It's hard to believe anyone actually thought this might be an interesting match.

Well, I assumed Wander = Shadow of the Colossus. Seems like he's just a character nobody cares about though.


It's true for his game as well, but The Sims is among the thing GameFAQs cares about least of all: PC gaming.
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Big Bob | Posted 11/16/2010 12:44:16 PM | message detail
Wander has no personality, and in-game he's not even given a name. He doesn't have an appealing character design, and he doesn't even stand out. Of course he'd be weak. But his game has plenty of reasons to be strong.
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vcharon | Posted 11/16/2010 12:45:34 PM | message detail
Saying "no one" cares about SotC is going a long way. The game was very well received by critics worldwide and it sold a lot of copies.
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:>
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/16/2010 12:48:20 PM | message detail
niche ps2 games (especially ones not even from big companies like Capcom) always do horrible here. I saw no reason to think SotC would be any different. I think this is just all Sims being weak as hell

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2247

I mean the game got an Ulti Style Blowout by Dragon Quest 8 of all things.
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Epona > Any Western Character
http://img1.immage.de/14117bfbec113942.gif
Greyfeld | Posted 11/16/2010 12:51:14 PM | message detail
You threw it away the second you picked Paper Mario>MGS3.

I don't know what's worse, the fact that somebody I've never even heard of is up my butt enough to remember something I said in passing several days ago, or the fact that he's taking my post so seriously.
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PSN - Aevio
Playing: Might & Magic: Clash of Heroes
vcharon | Posted 11/16/2010 12:51:40 PM | message detail
Niche? SotC sold plenty of copies and was heavily commercialized during its time.
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:>
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/16/2010 12:53:44 PM | message detail
Niche? SotC sold plenty of copies and was heavily commercialized during its time.

People call Disgaea niche, but they both sold about the same amount of copies world wide. Either make both niche or make neither niche.
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Epona > Any Western Character
http://img1.immage.de/14117bfbec113942.gif
vcharon | Posted 11/16/2010 12:57:48 PM | message detail

From: NoDicePwn | #046
People call Disgaea niche, but they both sold about the same amount of copies world wide. Either make both niche or make neither niche.


Care to show me some sales figures? It's hardly comparable if Disgaea sold most of those copies in Japan when the US dominates this site's poll. SotC was commercialized here in the states, and I don't think Disgaea really has been.
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:>
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/16/2010 1:12:19 PM | message detail
http://gamrreview.vgchartz.com/browse.php?name=disgaea

650k sales from not Disgaea 1 games

http://www.joystiq.com/2010/02/13/nippon-ichi-to-focus-on-ps3-plans-new-disgaea-game/

"With 1.6 million Disgaea games sold so far, the franchise is unquestionably Nippon Ichi's most valued asset."

So thats 950k sales from Disgaea 1.


http://gamrreview.vgchartz.com/sales/7100/shadow-of-the-colossus/

980k worldwide sales for Shadow of the Colossus
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Epona > Any Western Character
http://img1.immage.de/14117bfbec113942.gif
WhiteLens | Posted 11/16/2010 1:20:21 PM | message detail
I'm pretty sure that SotC would beat VC without much trouble.
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Hear me, Amaterasu
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/16/2010 1:21:11 PM | message detail
I'm pretty sure that SotC would beat VC without much trouble.

Doesn't mean they aren't both niche titles. Theres still different levels of niche, but SotC is one of the prime examples of Niche that comes to mind when I hear the word.
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Epona > Any Western Character
http://img1.immage.de/14117bfbec113942.gif