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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 947

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Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/14/2010 10:22:25 AM | message detail

From: TheKoolAidShoto | #149
Me thinks you took the 4-way stats just a little too seriously.


4way stats are fine for direct comparisons when you take the other variables into account. In this case the other variables were two RPGs, one of which is a PC game. WoW is a PC RPG.

Hmm...
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LOLContests | Posted 11/14/2010 10:22:29 AM | message detail
Don't forget that Kingdom Hearts probably hit Paper Mario with some SFF as well, and being in 4th place only compounded these factors.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/14/2010 10:22:59 AM | message detail
Why on earth would WoW do any worse? It had two RPGs in its last match last year, it would no doubt gain more from a 1v1 scenario than MGS3.

Mostly anti-votes is the reason why Animal Crossing is doing so well and that those anti-votes would be split three-ways last year.

Also the difference between what I said and what you just said is that what I just said could actually happen. Don't deny the possibility.

Mine has a better chance at happening since we don't know where Wii Sports ranks while we both have numbers on MGS3 and PM. Don't deny the possibility.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 42/50 Today's Matches: PM & WoW
The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/14/2010 10:23:22 AM | message detail

From: Lightning Strikes | #150
Why on earth would WoW do any worse? It had two RPGs in its last match last year, it would no doubt gain more from a 1v1 scenario than MGS3.


Even though MGS3 did better against WoW in the round prior to that one, when there were no RPGs involved?

Yeah, I doubt the RPGs in that round made a difference.

Besides, WoW has a surprisingly low playrate on GameFAQs, 4 way matches are going to benefit it
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/14/2010 10:28:34 AM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #153
Mine has a better chance at happening since we don't know where Wii Sports ranks while we both have numbers on MGS3 and PM. Don't deny the possibility.


We do know where Wii Sports ranks from the vote-in polls and general common sense. The only data we have on Paper Mario is from a match with both Metroid Prime and Kingdom Hearts, both SFFing it into the ground. Other than that and the last match, it's a complete unknown.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/14/2010 10:32:33 AM | message detail
So....account bet? Otherwise, shut up.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/14/2010 10:36:20 AM | message detail
No

Not only are account bets stupid, I'm also not going to do one when all I'm saying is we need to wait for more information before calling a match either way.

Also "shut up". Such eloquence and skillful arguing. You must feel very proud of yourself. I apologise for daring to differ.
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NoDicePwn | Posted 11/14/2010 10:37:22 AM | message detail
Account bets are good to see if someone actually believes what they're saying or just spewing crap to get a response, though
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/14/2010 10:37:31 AM | message detail
When we start calling for KH/PM SFF then you know you're stretching the word too far.

Okay let's take an extreme example, let's give ALL of Metroid Prime's votes to Paper Mario and assume that TP SFF RE4 in the match against MGS3. That gives Paper Mario the win over MGS3 at around 55%.

Now to show you how crazy combining PM with MP is, combining FFVIII and FFIX would suggest that FFVIII would win over Starcraft with 67%, a round earlier FFVIII only got 61% and this is with two games of the same series pairing up together. We also have a long history of Samus/Metroid not SFF anything which hurts Paper Mario even more.
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GotD Bracket: 42/50 Today's Matches: PM & WoW
methedemon | Posted 11/14/2010 10:38:23 AM | message detail
Paper Mario isn't beating MGS3 and we don't need to wait for anything what a stupid argument.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/14/2010 10:39:04 AM | message detail

From: Lightning Strikes | #157
No


That's what I thought. Either back up your stupid upsets or be quiet.
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Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 11/14/2010 10:40:57 AM | message detail
Account bets are good to see if someone actually believes what they're saying or just spewing crap to get a response, though

Not necessarily. I wouldn't bet my account even on a Link vs known fodder match since I don't like betting things I won't give up even if there's no chance that I would lose. Other people may just not like account bets.
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SuperAngelo128 | Posted 11/14/2010 10:41:26 AM | message detail
And then there are people like Menji76 who lie about account bets
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Ultimaphazon | Posted 11/14/2010 10:42:09 AM | message detail
No I finally see it. Massive SFF between MP and PM because their acronyms use the same letters. Why didn't I think of that earlier?
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NoDicePwn | Posted 11/14/2010 10:42:16 AM | message detail
Well you have a good excuse TRE, since I doubt any mod would bet their account.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/14/2010 10:43:29 AM | message detail
KH SFFing Nintendo is nothing newor exciting.

Compare:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3491

to

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3500

and even

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3505

When KHII is in the poll, TP suddenly shrinks to RE4's level. We see the same happening when we add SSBB, to basically the exact same level. This suggests that not only does KH SFF Nintendo, it does it in a big way.

I've never seen why this gets disputed. They have the exact same patterns and demographics of course there's going to be SFF. But TP last year does provide solid proof of this.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/14/2010 10:43:53 AM | message detail
At least be man enough to do a sig bet for a week.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/14/2010 10:44:53 AM | message detail

From: TheKoolAidShoto | #161
That's what I thought. Either back up your stupid upsets or be quiet.


It's not a matter of backing up anything because there isn't yet anything to back up. Also stop telling me to be quiet, it's pathetic.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/14/2010 10:45:41 AM | message detail
I'm on the same boat as TRE, account betting is dumb, especially when people hold their accounts at different values.
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GotD Bracket: 42/50 Today's Matches: PM & WoW
medicority | Posted 11/14/2010 10:46:54 AM | message detail
people have wow winning the contest

ahahahahahaha

what they forget is wow is a terrible game played by people that don't realize they hate it
charmander6000 | Posted 11/14/2010 10:48:46 AM | message detail
When KHII is in the poll, TP suddenly shrinks to RE4's level. We see the same happening when we add SSBB, to basically the exact same level. This suggests that not only does KH SFF Nintendo, it does it in a big way.

I've never seen why this gets disputed. They have the exact same patterns and demographics of course there's going to be SFF. But TP last year does provide solid proof of this.


You just said before that TP SFF RE4 when it was against MGS3.

Heck it could be MGS/RE LFF, I know a lot of people think that exists.
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GotD Bracket: 42/50 Today's Matches: PM & WoW
red sox 777 | Posted 11/14/2010 10:52:42 AM | message detail
Yeah, I'm not going to bet my account on anything I'm not 100% confident in. And if there's someone else who believes in the opposite result happening enough to account bet on it, chances are I'm not going to be 100% confident.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/14/2010 10:55:44 AM | message detail
Kingdom Hearts/Nintendo SFF that hurts only Nintendo and leaves KH completely unfazed. That's fresh
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/14/2010 10:56:56 AM | message detail
TP was SFFing RE4 in the other two rounds as well. Its own effect on RE4 is a constant and doesn't affect anything. Furthermore, MGS4 was in the match with Brawl. If MGS3 was affecting RE4 MGS4 should have already, but RE4 stayed constant to its round 2 performance relative to TP.

We can see from extrapolation that there is a KH/TP interaction and not a MGS/RE one. RE4 makes a great constant to compare TP against.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/14/2010 10:57:25 AM | message detail
I didn't think of that, if KHII did have more of a link to TP it should have lost by more to RE4.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/14/2010 10:58:40 AM | message detail

From: The n00b Avenger | #173
Kingdom Hearts/Nintendo SFF that hurts only Nintendo and leaves KH completely unfazed. That's fresh


Stronger games tend to do that against weaker games. They don't even need to be that much stronger, just generally preferred by the fanbase.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/14/2010 11:00:01 AM | message detail
There's also the fact that HL2 stay pretty constant despite adding two LFFing Nintendo titles.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/14/2010 11:02:00 AM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #175
I didn't think of that, if KHII did have more of a link to TP it should have lost by more to RE4.


It did weaken somewhat. It's kind of strange that KHII would come out the better of the two but it's not like rSFF is completely unheard of.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/14/2010 11:02:02 AM | message detail
Stronger games tend to do that against weaker games. They don't even need to be that much stronger, just generally preferred by the fanbase.

Wait so despite losing to TP you think KHII would win that match?
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HaRRicH | Posted 11/14/2010 11:02:03 AM | message detail
Paper Mario looked good, sure, but let's re-examine what Katamari's bringing to the table:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2861
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3995
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2079
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2888

Doesn't look like people were hyped for future Katamari-games and its series ranks between Digimon and Naruto for Namco, so that's not a good sign for KD. Tidus also beat King of All Cosmos worse than PM beat KD and Marth wasn't far from doubling Prince of All Cosmos despite Donkey Kong in the poll. As for PM:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=769
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1870
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2988
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3467

I don't want to take the N64-GotY very seriously, but the fact remains that no PM-game has looked good in the past and PM only got 38.47% on MP last year...WoW broke 40% on MGS3 twice, and it hasn't let anti-votes ruin it one-on-one against another low-level Nintendo-title in Animal Crossing yet. PM winning over WoW isn't that good of a pick, and picking it over MGS3 is madness. I don't think WoW breaks 40% a third time in this format and wouldn't take PM to either unless it beat WoW handily.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/14/2010 11:03:07 AM | message detail
It did weaken somewhat. It's kind of strange that KHII would come out the better of the two but it's not like rSFF is completely unheard of.

Yes it is, closest thing you can get is virtual equals.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/14/2010 11:05:20 AM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #179
Stronger games tend to do that against weaker games. They don't even need to be that much stronger, just generally preferred by the fanbase.

Wait so despite losing to TP you think KHII would win that match?


Not exactly what I meant. Actually I slightly misinterpreted that post. >_>

But it's possible that KHII could hurt TP more than TP hurt KHII either way thanks to rSFF.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/14/2010 11:09:14 AM | message detail
Give an example of rSFF, seriously there's no reason to think it exists.

Before you say Mario/Samus remember that Mario showed that he was at least comparable to Samus in the previous round.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/14/2010 11:13:12 AM | message detail
I want to say TP weakening was an example of rSFF-TP should have done better but didn't when KHII was in the match. I feel it's the only explanation. It's not like rSFF can't happen.

Hmm... Maybe a significant portion of TP's votes were from a faction of fans with higher loyalty to KH but a smaller portion of KHII's votes were from Nintendo fans. Would make sense if we take RE4 as Nintendo.

It is unusual but those votes had to go somewhere.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/14/2010 11:17:47 AM | message detail
Either way TP still perfromed about the same on Half-Life 2 in the second round. If there was any truth to TP being held back it would have shown through HL2.
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GotD Bracket: 42/50 Today's Matches: PM & WoW
Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/14/2010 11:23:46 AM | message detail
This might sound silly.

But Phoenix Wright was in TP's round 1 match.

>_>

You must admit, it DOES make sense. We're talking about a Nintendo system exclusive. Catering more towards the hardcore Nintendo gamers than the casuals and the kiddies, but the Nintendo audience nonetheless.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/14/2010 11:26:15 AM | message detail

From: Lightning Strikes | #186
This might sound silly.


Coming from you? Nah
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/14/2010 11:27:50 AM | message detail
Childish insults, really?

What are we, 12?

Let's be civil.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/14/2010 11:28:53 AM | message detail

From: Lightning Strikes | #188
Childish insults, really?


I didn't say anything insulting, you just saw it that way.

What are we, 12?


I surely hope not, the mods are watching.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/14/2010 11:37:15 AM | message detail
For one thing it is well documented that something getting a lot less votes hurts the other game a lot less.

Take Mario/MMX in rounds 2 and 3 as an example. You'd think Luigi would have more overlap with Mario yet he was able to win over MMX by a lot more than he did with Zelda in the poll.
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Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 11/14/2010 11:53:19 AM | message detail
I surely hope not, the mods are watching.

<_<
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vcharon | Posted 11/14/2010 12:50:59 PM | message detail
Like said before, I think it's impressive WoW is going to win this at all. Considering the stigma against it, the company the produces it (as evidenced by certain polls) and the fact only 35% of the site has ever played it means that over 20% of people (this is assuming everyone that has played is voting for it, which is even more unlikely) are voting for it over AC based on its name value alone.

It's about what I expected from it. I doubt it has much chance next round, but losing to Nintendo fodder is something not even WoW could do.
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Ultimaphazon | Posted 11/14/2010 12:55:29 PM | message detail
People constantly bring up WoW's 35% playrate, but honestly, are we sure Animal Crossing has a higher playrate? I kinda doubt it.
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vcharon | Posted 11/14/2010 12:57:36 PM | message detail

From: Ultimaphazon | #193
People constantly bring up WoW's 35% playrate, but honestly, are we sure Animal Crossing has a higher playrate? I kinda doubt it.


Very unlikely, I was just saying that it's impressive WoW is pulling down that many extra voters based on the power of its name alone. Considering the fact that if you have never played WoW, what you've heard about the game is probably negative in nature.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/14/2010 1:01:00 PM | message detail
People constantly bring up WoW's 35% playrate, but honestly, are we sure Animal Crossing has a higher playrate? I kinda doubt it.

I agree, like I said in my analysis, it's crazy to think WoW or any game has a cap. Anything can blow something away given that the opponent is weak enough.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 42/50 Today's Matches: PM & WoW
HaRRicH | Posted 11/14/2010 1:22:15 PM | message detail
WoW was between Oblivion and ToS last contest though, so beating AC isn't actually impressive. I get that there's been this idea WoW would drop one-on-one, and I don't fully disagree with it...but it's Nintendo's least-respected series here, one that was Nintendo's response to the Sims. We've seen Tom Nook and Mr. Resetti blow hard several times, and we've seen every AC-game suck:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1025
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1087
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1128
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2243
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3355
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3998

We may say GameFAQs doesn't care for MMORPGs, but they also don't care much for open-ended games like AC either:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1039


Really though, if we assume WoW still beats Halo 2, we've already seen Halo 3 beat SMS and AC should lose to SMS. Halo 3's not that much better than Halo 2 here. This result isn't a particularly big deal.
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Ultimaphazon | Posted 11/14/2010 1:33:59 PM | message detail
we've already seen Halo 3 beat SMS and AC should lose to SMS.

inb4 someone posts the GotY poll. >_>

Yeah, this certainly isn't an impressive performance by WoW. If it wanted to impress here, it had to shoot for mid 60s imo.
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HaRRicH | Posted 11/14/2010 1:51:33 PM | message detail

From: Ultimaphazon | #197
inb4 someone posts the GotY poll. >_>


That's why I posted this one first!

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1025
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Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 11/14/2010 4:03:33 PM | message detail
Grand theft Auto 3 head to head with FFX and now it get's beaten by everyone!Man popularity sucks!
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695924 | Posted 11/14/2010 5:28:01 PM | message detail
Damn. Looks like Paper Mario is gonna run through WoW.
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