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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 947

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VaultBoyAlbion | Posted 11/14/2010 9:25:32 AM | message detail
I can't believe WoW got the board vote
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Epona > Any Western Character
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/14/2010 9:26:10 AM | message detail
MGS3 was a night game beating a day game in a night match

TimeSplitters 2 seems to be more of a night game than a day match, because of this:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4117&region=EUR
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4117&region=GB
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4117&region=NL

Although Asia has heavily supporting MGS3, MGS3 ended up losing the night vote to TimeSplitters 2.
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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 11/14/2010 9:26:26 AM | message detail
WoW wasn't ever beating PM

It is under preforming, but should be well at 60ish by the time this is over

I think <_<
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/14/2010 9:27:21 AM | message detail
Brackets. Bracket-voting is a powerful, powerful, thing, that turned a 150 vote lead for Crono one year into a 50 vote lead the next year, even though Crono was actually stronger relative to Vincent the second time.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
charmander6000 | Posted 11/14/2010 9:28:20 AM | message detail
I'm taking MGS3 bro.

It's just, Paper Mario looked great. I could see Katamari Damacy beating Timesplitters 2, and MGS3 was a night game beating a day game in a night match, while PM was a day game beating a night game in a night match.

Shame it's a night match, or we'd definitely have a match there.


Why would Katamari Damacy which was never released in Europe be a night game?

Second that was all KD being terrible, I wouldn't consider Metroid Prime > MGS3.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 42/50 Today's Matches: PM & WoW
charmander6000 | Posted 11/14/2010 9:29:20 AM | message detail
WoW is at 63% in Canada. What is it with them and Warcraft?

We like Blizzard games, for example Starcraft almost defeated FFVIII in the last game contest while Diablo II easily won its first round match.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 42/50 Today's Matches: PM & WoW
Biolizard28 | Posted 11/14/2010 9:30:51 AM | message detail

From: Achromatic | #096
WoW winning a 1 v 1 is actually pretty impressive.


Pfft, whatever.
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LOLContests | Posted 11/14/2010 9:31:15 AM | message detail
Why would Katamari Damacy which was never released in Europe be a night game?

In all fairness, Katamari Damacy didn't do much worse in Europe in comparison to the rest of the world.
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/14/2010 9:33:11 AM | message detail
Why would Katamari Damacy which was never released in Europe be a night game?

Well, it was a night game based on what we just saw. The day/night difference overcame the geolocation difference. Chrono Trigger is another night game that wasn't released in Europe.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/14/2010 9:35:02 AM | message detail
Well all of the other Katamari games were released in Europe, so it might have still got a lot of votes from fans of those games.
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Epona > Any Western Character
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/14/2010 9:40:18 AM | message detail
That's fine.

Doesn't change the fact that MGS3 is going to easily break 60% on Paper Mario should it get there.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 42/50 Today's Matches: PM & WoW
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/14/2010 9:40:48 AM | message detail
Chrono Trigger is another night game that wasn't released in Europe.

Chrono Trigger only does bad in Europe because of the UK. You can look these 2 matches:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3485
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3497

In the first match, Chrono Trigger only did about 3% worse in Europe (although 10% worse in the UK).
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/14/2010 9:43:42 AM | message detail
Paper Mario won't beat MGS3, but I could see it doing a fair amount better than 40%.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 11/14/2010 9:44:09 AM | message detail
Thanks Luster
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My God, did that predict good!
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/14/2010 9:44:30 AM | message detail
Remember, Timesplitters 2 lost to PW3. I'm not sure KD would honestly.

Interestingly, there is a poll where I Love Katamari is right behind PW3. Not the most reliable stats since it was a pre-release poll but it definitely opens the possibility of KD being stronger.

By the way, last year MGS3 only got 60%(less?) on WoW. I'm not all that fond of last year's stats but that part of the bracket seems solid for them. If Paper Mario outdoes that next round MGS3 is in trouble.

Either way it's easily the weakest 1 seed and I say this as a big fan of the game.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/14/2010 9:45:45 AM | message detail
By the way, last year MGS3 only got 60%(less?) on WoW. I'm not all that fond of last year's stats but that part of the bracket seems solid for them. If Paper Mario outdoes that next round MGS3 is in trouble.

WoW broke 40% on MGS3 twice in the last contest.
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redrocket | Posted 11/14/2010 9:47:34 AM | message detail
Remember, Timesplitters 2 lost to PW3. I'm not sure KD would honestly.

what

Either way it's easily the weakest 1 seed and I say this as a big fan of the game.

It's a stone cold lock to be stronger than Metroid Prime and could be stronger than Majora's Mask too.

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charmander6000 | Posted 11/14/2010 9:49:42 AM | message detail
If Paper Mario is going up against the WoW that we saw from last year then it isn't winning.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 42/50 Today's Matches: PM & WoW
Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/14/2010 9:49:42 AM | message detail
So much for MGS3 breaking 60% on Paper Mario then!

As I remember it the second WoW/MGS3 match had two other RPGs in the poll, one of which was a PC RPG.

Yeah, this looks worse and worse for MGS3 the more you look at it. However, we need to wait until next round before making any calls for its head, but a Paper Mario upset could very well happen.
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Mr3790 | Posted 11/14/2010 9:49:53 AM | message detail
Good, Wow has a decent lead. I thought this would be close for a second...
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redrocket | Posted 11/14/2010 9:50:23 AM | message detail
Oh, also a stone cold lock to be greater than SMG. And has a shot against FO3.

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From his looks Magus is Macho Man Randy Savage as an anime zombie. The black wind howls, and one of you will snap into a Slim Jim ooh yeeeah! -sonicblastpunch
Ultimaphazon | Posted 11/14/2010 9:50:33 AM | message detail
I'd also take it over Galaxy easily.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/14/2010 9:51:11 AM | message detail
Would you take Paper Mario to beat Resident Evil 4?

Even if you think TP SFF RE4 a bit in that match, do you think PM can break 45% on RE4?
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 42/50 Today's Matches: PM & WoW
Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/14/2010 9:51:45 AM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #118
If Paper Mario is going up against the WoW that we saw from last year then it isn't winning.


The same WoW that barely beat ToS?
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/14/2010 9:53:52 AM | message detail
The same WoW that barely beat ToS?

Are you trying to imply that ToS is weak or something?

I wouldn't take TTYD over ToS, let alone PM.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 42/50 Today's Matches: PM & WoW
Gooper Blooper | Posted 11/14/2010 9:55:35 AM | message detail
Paper Mario to the elite eight book it
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Ultimaphazon | Posted 11/14/2010 9:56:25 AM | message detail
I wouldn't take TTYD over ToS, let alone PM.

Are you implying that TTYD > PM? I highly doubt that.

Other than that, I would take ToS over both Paper Marios as well.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/14/2010 9:56:47 AM | message detail
RE4 got pretty badly SFF'd.

MGS3 had the advantage of being against two huge Gamecube games while it was the only PS2 exclusive in the match. If you look at it though, it didn't look any better than it did in round 2 against Oblivion. Either RE4 is no better or it got SFF'd.

Either way, that match speaks ill of RE4 rather than well of MGS3. MGS3 only got 60% on ToS, under that on WoW. If Paper Mario breaks 60% on WoW it's match and if it breaks 65% MGS3 is done. However, we need to wait until next round.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/14/2010 9:57:26 AM | message detail
ToS is fairly strong.

But I would take PM over it so hard.
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NoDicePwn | Posted 11/14/2010 9:57:28 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/14/2010 9:57:47 AM | message detail
PM isn't getting close to 60% next round. It'll probably like like 53-47 or so

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Epona > Any Western Character
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/14/2010 9:58:39 AM | message detail
ToS>PM=TTYD

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DFF
charmander6000 | Posted 11/14/2010 10:00:34 AM | message detail
Or we can say that you're crazy now and are looking too much into the stats that don't mean much.

Really there's no reason for Paper Mario to be stronger this year compare to last year so for it to be possible Metroid Prime must have pulled some heavy rSFF on it last year.
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GotD Bracket: 42/50 Today's Matches: PM & WoW
charmander6000 | Posted 11/14/2010 10:01:48 AM | message detail
ToS is fairly strong.

But I would take PM over it so hard.


And you would be wrong so hard.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 42/50 Today's Matches: PM & WoW
red sox 777 | Posted 11/14/2010 10:02:45 AM | message detail
Not rSFF, just SFF. Metroid Prime would beat Tales of Symphonia and World of Warcraft. MGS3 is clearly too high a target for Paper Mario, but it's not going to destroy it or anything.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/14/2010 10:03:13 AM | message detail
Man what is with the PM underestimation.

The game has "dark horse" written all over it.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/14/2010 10:04:21 AM | message detail
Not rSFF, just SFF. Metroid Prime would beat Tales of Symphonia and World of Warcraft. MGS3 is clearly too high a target for Paper Mario, but it's not going to destroy it or anything.

I was talking about PM > MGS3
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 42/50 Today's Matches: PM & WoW
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/14/2010 10:05:48 AM | message detail
are we seriously debating Paper mario > MGS3 cuz PM beat some fodderific game badly
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Epona > Any Western Character
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Ultimaphazon | Posted 11/14/2010 10:06:46 AM | message detail
The game has "dark horse" written all over it.

It also has "nowhere near as strong as MGS3" written all over it.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/14/2010 10:08:22 AM | message detail
This is worse than the Ezio > Zelda debate since we actually have some stats on these games.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 42/50 Today's Matches: PM & WoW
Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/14/2010 10:08:33 AM | message detail
The real kicker about last year's stats though, is that WoW would probably do better on MGS3 in a 1v1 match. MGS has the benefit of having very little SFF, and it faced three RPGs. What we saw last year is the absolute BEST MGS3 could do.

I'm not going to call this yet because we don't have a good Paper Mario read, but if it easily beats WoW it could easily upset MGS3.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/14/2010 10:09:59 AM | message detail

From: NoDicePwn | #138
are we seriously debating Paper mario > MGS3 cuz PM beat some fodderific game badly


No, its pretty much just Lightning Strikes banging his fist on the desk about this and the entire stats topic shaking their heads and calling him stupid.
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voltch | Posted 11/14/2010 10:11:40 AM | message detail
Gosh, WoW gonna job to paper mario now.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/14/2010 10:12:09 AM | message detail
Also this is based off of a game MGS3 didn't beat that badly bombing more than Paper Mario doing well. MGS3 and WoW can be reliably compared, but PM can't be to anything. Yet.

I'm just saying, PM vs. WoW is going to be an important match. PM is very much an unknown but if it wins easily, then that's MGS3's death knell.

It needs to do that first though. This is all theoretical.
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Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/14/2010 10:13:55 AM | message detail
I realise the third round could well be mega-boring outside of KH/KH2 and GSC/MM, but I think hyping MGS3/PM to be interesting is pushing the boat out just a littlle.

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charmander6000 | Posted 11/14/2010 10:14:34 AM | message detail
You're still assuming that the WoW we saw last year is the one that we're seeing today, which doesn't seem likely.
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GotD Bracket: 42/50 Today's Matches: PM & WoW
Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/14/2010 10:14:53 AM | message detail

From: TheKoolAidShoto | #142
No, its pretty much just Lightning Strikes banging his fist on the desk about this and the entire stats topic shaking their heads and calling him stupid.


So believing that if a game breaks 60% on a game MGS3 could not, it will beat MGS3, is "stupid".

Uh huh.

Don't get so tangled in your preconceptions. Don't be afraid to accept the possibility of what we once believed being wrong.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/14/2010 10:16:01 AM | message detail
It needs to do that first though. This is all theoretical.

If Wii Sports breaks 60% on Majora's Mask it can win the entire contest.

It needs to do that first though. This is all theoretical.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 42/50 Today's Matches: PM & WoW
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/14/2010 10:18:21 AM | message detail

From: Lightning Strikes | #147
So believing that if a game breaks 60% on a game MGS3 could not, it will beat MGS3, is "stupid".


Me thinks you took the 4-way stats just a little too seriously.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/14/2010 10:19:16 AM | message detail
Why on earth would WoW do any worse? It had two RPGs in its last match last year, it would no doubt gain more from a 1v1 scenario than MGS3.

Also the difference between what I said and what you just said is that what I just said could actually happen. Don't deny the possibility.
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