GameFAQs Contests

Another lost point for me...But at least a Mario game has lost on Nintendofaqs from a game nobody expected!That is awesome!
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~

Today's match is somewhat reminiscent of SC2K2 where Capcom characters were actually decent and Nintendo/Square weren't quite so dominant.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

*Checks poll*

wut.
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Something something something
^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig

The last time NSMBW won an update was back at 5:01 PM, so it's been 2 hours since then.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!

Looking at the hourly vote totals, there was definitely a significant amount of rallying after all. Hourly vote totals so far:

1:00 | 7262
2:00 | 6244
3:00 | 5468
4:00 | 4979
5:00 | 4438
6:00 | 4532
7:00 | 4022
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!

Maybe MvC2 is more popular than given credit for?

Jesus christ I've been saying this all along. Look at any poll involving it and you'll get a decent idea of its strength. People here just seemed to have pulled a baseless strength level for it out of their ass and are now "shocked" that its not King of Fighters weak.
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Smurf , The cream of Sonic fanboyism.

I mentioned this in another topic but considering NSMBW's GotY performance we really should have seen this one coming.
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Something something something
^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVmc5ZepdVs&feature=related

Only good MvC2 video I can remember atm
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My God, did that predict good!
Dr_Football-l-l it no goin' and you tell me do things, I done runnin'...

So... is there even a slight chance of a Mario comeback? Probably not, I know... but man, this result is a bummer. If this result holds, I'm going to lose quite a few battle points; but more than anything, it sucks to see one of my favorite games getting embarrassed like this. :/

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CURRENT GOTY SCORE: 43
MGS3 > MGS4 "oh crap"

This result is so awesome, sucks I missed most of the day with connection issues.
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:>

I mentioned this in another topic but considering NSMBW's GotY performance we really should have seen this one coming.

50.5 // 49.5

OMFG SHOULDA SEEN IT COMING IT WAS SO OBVIOUS.

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"I skate when I want to!"
-Benjamin Franklin (http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=264)

The main reason I'm so happy about today's match is that... WHEN was the last time Nintendo lost to an untested game/character that was not Square/MGS/GTA/Halo/stuff like that?

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

And I bet that the majority of the casual bracket makers picked MvC2, so we're gonna look dumb once the percentile comes in.
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Native Americans were offended, Women Activists were offended...
...and I'm offended because this game's a ****ing piece of ****!

wth, dumb match.
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mii~

I'm willing to bet only 5% of the people got this match right.
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lol opinions

50.5 // 49.5

OMFG SHOULDA SEEN IT COMING IT WAS SO OBVIOUS.

Yeah people should, anyone calling an easy win for NSMBW were crazy, even if the results were reversed right now.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 41/48 Today's Matches: MGS3 & NSMBW

Yeah people should, anyone calling an easy win for NSMBW were crazy, even if the results were reversed right now.

I don't recall anybody calling an easy win for mario. Or at least anybody worth listening to. His point was anybody saying the win for MvC2 was "obvious" needs to be smacked, because the match is ending up with a 1% vote difference.
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PSN - Aevio
Playing: Might & Magic: Clash of Heroes

i reckon it's a 38% predix for MVC2.
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Nyuu~

Thing is no one said MvC2 winning was obvious just that we should've seen it coming.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 41/48 Today's Matches: MGS3 & NSMBW

Thing is no one said MvC2 winning was obvious just that we should've seen it coming.

In that case I don't see the point of the post because we all DID see this coming. It was heavily discussed and a number of folks agreed the upset probability was high.

Still, obvious my ass.

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"I skate when I want to!"
-Benjamin Franklin (http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=264)

I think the prediction percentage will be really low. Probably around 25-30%. I bet most voters didn't even think it could win.
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"You have enemies? Good. That means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life." ~ Winston Churchill

I could have sworn a lot of people had Mario at 60%+
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Epona > Any Western Character
http://www.seaslugteam.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/2010-10-squid.jpg

*raises hand shamefully* (had him at 59 something)
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"You have enemies? Good. That means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life." ~ Winston Churchill

My prediction was 54%-55%. I was worried about this, even had MVC2 in my battle for a while, but ended up going with "A fighting game that originated on the Dreamcast probably can't beat a mainline Mario game, even if NSMB is weak."

Not surprised by the result. I am surprised by the day vote - since when does Mario roll over and day as the day goes on?

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http://i46.tinypic.com/v4o0mx.jpg
best sig bet EVER

Not surprised by the result. I am surprised by the day vote - since when does Mario roll over and day as the day goes on?

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=3475&type=1&seconds=60&max=0
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=3492&type=1&seconds=60&max=0
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Epona > Any Western Character
http://www.seaslugteam.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/2010-10-squid.jpg

When we start the match at the height of the day vote, Mario has nowhere to go but down as day turns to evening and night.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.

Well this match is a classic case of "if it started at midnight, the result would be switched."
Board vote and Europe carrying it until the early morning would have completely neutered California and the U.S. vote.
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"You have enemies? Good. That means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life." ~ Winston Churchill

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Nah. This might end up with 1300-1400 vote win by MvC2, thats not being overturned overnight, even though Mario is dominating Europe. It'll be a lot closer but don't forget that California would still be able to vote first couple hours of a night match.

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Epona > Any Western Character
http://www.seaslugteam.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/2010-10-squid.jpg

Well this match is a classic case of "if it started at midnight, the result would be switched."
Board vote and Europe carrying it until the early morning would have completely neutered California and the U.S. vote.

I have no idea if this is true, but if it is, it's kind of hilarious. I picked NSMB because I figured the day vote would save it if there was any trouble.
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xyzzy

Huh. I don't know what would happen if we let the match run another 12 hours. MvC2 will gain from the night but fall from Europe making up a much higher percentage of the votes. Guessing it would be safe though- it'd probably get up to a lead of 2000 at the current rate before Mario could stall it around 4 AM.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.

I'm not saying MvC2 wouldn't win a 24 hours match, I'm saying it would have lost if the match ran from midnight to noon by looking at its demographics. The board vote for Mario is enough to give it an early advantage and when Europe starts being the majority of voters around 2-3 AM (i think), it would have built up its lead up to at the very least 6-7 AM EST... and the strongest demographic in the US is the west... so they'd be starting to be a factor close to the end of the match.
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"You have enemies? Good. That means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life." ~ Winston Churchill

Didn't say it was an obvious win. Just that NSMBW being none too strong should not be surprising given what we already knew about it. MvC2 wasn't a colossal underdog but there's no denying that NSMBW was the clear favourite and most people thought it would be an easy upper 50s/low 60s win.

When looking at prior evidence we can see that MvC2 isn't that weak and especially that NSMBW isn't that strong. That's all I was saying.
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Something something something
^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig

No, another lost point.
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This space for rent.

So is there a reason why some people are hyping World of Warcraft > Animal Crossing?

Besides lol 35% playership rate.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 41/48 Today's Matches: MGS3 & NSMBW

I mean Animal Crossing > World of Warcraft.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 41/48 Today's Matches: MGS3 & NSMBW

Besides lol 35% playership rate.

Does "lol WoW" or "lol MMORPGs" count? >_>
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"Let me believe what you've always believed! That living is wonderful!"
"Thank you so much... Thank you for loving me."

Match LI: (5) Paper Mario vs. (12) Katamari Damacy

Information

Name: Paper Mario
Year: 2001
Previous Performance: SpC2k9 – 4th in round 1

Name: Katamari Damacy
Year: 2004
Previous Performance: N/A

Analysis

Katamari Damacy was the first game where the average person doesn’t care about it yet is loved by the board. I was actually surprised that the game was able to reach the contest. Very little has been discussed about this match, but looking around the board most people are expecting this to be a simple large victory for Paper Mario.

One of the main discussions about Paper Mario and its chances in the following round is whether or not it suffered from SFF last contest. Considering that the opponent was Metroid Prime I really doubt that Paper Mario was SFF. LFF on the other hand is still up for discussion, but that can only be so strong meaning Paper Mario probably won’t be that much stronger compare to what he showed last contest.

I’m not sure what to expect from Katamari Damacy, on one hand it could be one of the weakest games in the bracket while on the other it could put up a respectable performance. Even back when it was at its strongest King of All Cosmos was still crushed by Tidus in the character battle; then again the game wasn’t really about the characters. The only information we have on the series was the favourite Namco series poll that was held earlier this year. Despite such weak competition it was crushed by the likes of Tales, Soul Calibur and Tekken.

Since it isn’t expected that Paper Mario will be a powerhouse this all depends on whether Katamari Damacy is just fodder or terrible fodder. There is a chance that we could see a huge blowout, but I feel that people will remember the fad five years ago and give it enough support for it to look respectable.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Paper Mario > Katamari Damacy

charmander6000’s Prediction: Paper Mario wins, 65.25% - 34.75%

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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 41/48 Today's Matches: MGS3 & NSMBW

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3909
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4054

People just don't care about WoW at all on this site, and WC III losing isn't exactly the greatest sign that the series still has strength.
It's lucky to only be up against Animal Crossing.
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Can you overcome me?

Because Animal Crossing is not going to be super weak, and WoW is hated by the majority of the site. I know 4-way results have held up remarkably well in 1v1, but WoW may have been the exception- Arthas did way way way worse in 1v1 than he had done in 4-way. Does Diablo get 60-40'd by Kefka now? I don't think so.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.

A lot of that was from Kefka being a lot stronger, though.
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"Let me believe what you've always believed! That living is wonderful!"
"Thank you so much... Thank you for loving me."

I have AC > WoW just because AC shouldn't be completely weak and its the type of game that nobody really hates so its an easy target to get the WoW anti votes. Wow is the favorite, but nobody should be surprised at all if it loses
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Epona > Any Western Character
http://www.seaslugteam.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/2010-10-squid.jpg

Considering what Kefka turned to be I would take him to win comfortably.

Also Animal Crossing is quite low on the Nintendo totem pole, there's no reason to think the game has much strength.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 41/48 Today's Matches: MGS3 & NSMBW

Kefka was also stronger in 2005 than 2008, so if he beats Diablo now, it's still going to be close.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.

Kefka was also stronger in 2005 than 2008, so if he beats Diablo now, it's still going to be close.

You also have to remember that Kefka won over Arthas at night while lost to Bowser during the day.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 41/48 Today's Matches: MGS3 & NSMBW

So? He still wouldn't come close to 60% on Diablo in any time period. Plus, "World of Warcraft" is going to generate a lot more hate than "Arthas."

The problem is that we've never really seen the hardcore fanbase theory work, pretty much ever. But if there were going to be an exceptional case, WoW would be it- and we've actually seen it operate (probably) with Arthas.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2018
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3807

I know Ganondorf and Bowser overperformed in the villains contest (was it only against Sephiroth? I can't remember) but that's also Kefka during the day. 60-40 may still be a bit much for Kefka to pull off, but I think he might get pretty close.
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"Let me believe what you've always believed! That living is wonderful!"
"Thank you so much... Thank you for loving me."

I'm fine if you believe that there is a large difference between four-ways and 1v1 for WoW, but that still gives WoW decent strength, more than enough to run over Animal Crossing.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 41/48 Today's Matches: MGS3 & NSMBW

I think pretty highly of Animal Crossing too. It beat Mario Sunshine in the 2002 GOTY, and I think it's still stronger than it today.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.

If Animal Crossing = Mario sunshine, then in a 1v1 match versus WoW, it'll win easily. I don't think Animal Crossing is that strong, but its one of those games thats impossible to hate
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Epona > Any Western Character
http://www.seaslugteam.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/2010-10-squid.jpg