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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 943

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VaultBoyAlbion | Posted 11/10/2010 8:15:27 PM | message detail
We still haven't seen anything from Valve to make me think it getting stronger wasn't just a 4way thing, though. TF2 needed massive rallying to beat an old Xbox rpg that was quite hated, L4D was brutalized by God of War, and can't really say anything about the HL2/L4D match since they're both Valve. Tonights match is a big test to see just how well Valve holds up in 1v1, since it can't only depend on the hardcore fanbase here.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/10/2010 8:17:23 PM | message detail
Veterans/Armistice Day is a national holiday in the US, yes, so schools should be out tomorrow.

I've never gotten off from school for that day. But we'll see tomorrow from the trends whether or not enough people had no school tomorrow to affect the trends in the match.
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/10/2010 8:19:48 PM | message detail
I guess schools only get out in some states. Crono/Sonic was on the friday before Veterans' Day if I remember right, and we got a diluted day vote (Sonic was cutting Crono's lead throughout the DSV, but didn't kill him quite as badly during the ASV as you would expect given how well he was doing in the DSV). I think there was discussion about some schools being closed on monday and others on friday.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
IloveYoda | Posted 11/10/2010 8:28:42 PM | message detail

From: 695924 | Posted: 11/10/2010 11:07:28 PM | #394
Where does all this Valve love come from? I see people have a lot of confidence in HL2 and Portal. Why?


I honestly feel like it isn't so much confidence in Valve, but more lack of confidence in the opponents HL2 and Portal are going up against. After several poll results where Metroid Prime didn't do so hot, we're down on it and Valve has been on the rise. Portal is going up against a mainstream FF game that really didn't do as well as others, so it looks vulnerable. Portal probably got a massive boost this year with that free giveaway for a month or so. Put those factors together and it makes Valve look stronger than it probably is.
Not_Wylvane | Posted 11/10/2010 8:29:31 PM | message detail
I just realized, if Dead Rising actually beats Persona 4, we'd have Resident Evil 4 vs Dead Rising. Two Capcom games, one with the undead and the other the strongest representative of a series featuring the undead.

It would be ugly.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/10/2010 8:36:58 PM | message detail

From: Not_Wylvane | #405
I just realized, if Dead Rising actually beats Persona 4, we'd have Resident Evil 4 vs Dead Rising. Two Capcom games, one with the undead and the other the strongest representative of a series featuring the undead.

It would be ugly.


I was thinking about that today. Capcom zombie SFF(yes I know they are Ganados, shut up)
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swordz9 | Posted 11/10/2010 8:40:31 PM | message detail
I'm still hoping P4 can pull off an upset on DR. It's probably not possible, but I'd rather see P4 lose to a game of RE4's level on this site instead of something that isn't all that strong. P4 has gotten a lot of votes for such an obscure game. I didn't think either Persona game would even hit 20,000 votes.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/10/2010 8:43:08 PM | message detail

From: IloveYoda | #404
I honestly feel like it isn't so much confidence in Valve, but more lack of confidence in the opponents HL2 and Portal are going up against. After several poll results where Metroid Prime didn't do so hot, we're down on it and Valve has been on the rise. Portal is going up against a mainstream FF game that really didn't do as well as others, so it looks vulnerable. Portal probably got a massive boost this year with that free giveaway for a month or so. Put those factors together and it makes Valve look stronger than it probably is.


Its weird though, because the way I see it, if I have faith in HL2's strength, so I gotta believe FF12 as well, going by their respective % in their match with TP. And I don't know how strong Portal is gonna be. I know the height would be the HL2 caliber, but the floor is in that L4D/TF2 range, which I wouldn't think twice about taking FF12 over. Lets see how it does tonight!
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VaultBoyAlbion | Posted 11/10/2010 8:49:07 PM | message detail
I was thinking about that today. Capcom zombie SFF(yes I know they are Ganados, shut up)

Braid is gonna look god awful in the xstats if that happens. Sheesh.
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Pondos | Posted 11/10/2010 8:51:18 PM | message detail
Braid was gonna look awful in the X-Stats as soon as it was placed in the bracket.

The real question is: will it look worse than No Mercy?
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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 11/10/2010 8:53:56 PM | message detail
I really can't imagine TWEWY beating Persona 4. Dead Rising will have the day vote advantage this time, but I'd still say P4 is the clear favorite going into that.
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Dr Football and Snake have won this round, but Sephiroth will rise again!
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/10/2010 8:54:12 PM | message detail

From: Pondos | #410
Braid was gonna look awful in the X-Stats as soon as it was placed in the bracket.

The real question is: will it look worse than No Mercy?


That depends on whether Melee beats Brawl.
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Master Moltar | Posted 11/10/2010 9:00:16 PM | message detail
what a board vote
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Moltar Status: Bracket: Portal (37/44)
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/10/2010 9:00:18 PM | message detail
Portal 100%

10
Gears of War 2 0%

0
TOTAL VOTES 10

This was a triumph.
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Articuno2001 | Posted 11/10/2010 9:00:21 PM | message detail
Portal 93.33%

14
Gears of War 2 6.67%

1
TOTAL VOTES 15
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2010 Game of the Decade Contest - 35/42 points - Today: Dead Rising / Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 4
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GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/10/2010 9:00:22 PM | message detail
Portal 85.71%

60
Gears of War 2 14.29%

10
TOTAL VOTES 70

noice
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Oracle contest - 36th
Today's pick: Portal - 64.88% Status:
charmander6000 | Posted 11/10/2010 9:00:26 PM | message detail
Portal 94.12% 16
Gears of War 2 5.88% 1
TOTAL VOTES 17

XD board vote.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 37/44 Today's Matches: Portal & FFXII
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/10/2010 9:00:40 PM | message detail
Woah there

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DFF
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/10/2010 9:00:47 PM | message detail
That is one insane board vote
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/10/2010 9:00:49 PM | message detail
Vote Accepted
Portal 85.71%

60
Gears of War 2 14.29%

10
TOTAL VOTES 70



Snap reaction: Good god am I glad I picked this to win three matches.
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VaultBoyAlbion | Posted 11/10/2010 9:00:50 PM | message detail
i think we'd all take gears of war 2 over gh2

we got our contest champion
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FFDragon | Posted 11/10/2010 9:00:54 PM | message detail
...whoa.
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Achromatic | Posted 11/10/2010 9:01:13 PM | message detail
holy crap
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Sir Chris
ZenOfThunder | Posted 11/10/2010 9:01:26 PM | message detail
My monocle must be fogged!
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/10/2010 9:01:27 PM | message detail
Also lol GoW2, still can't break 20%
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 37/44 Today's Matches: Portal & FFXII
GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/10/2010 9:01:39 PM | message detail
Yep, glad I have Portal in its divisional finals
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Oracle contest - 36th
Today's pick: Portal - 64.88% Status:
Achromatic | Posted 11/10/2010 9:01:56 PM | message detail
this is going to come down a lot I think but still
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Sir Chris
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/10/2010 9:02:02 PM | message detail
welp, there goes my bracket
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Biolizard28 | Posted 11/10/2010 9:02:28 PM | message detail
Holy ****.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/10/2010 9:02:34 PM | message detail
1st vote, 1st for Portal

http://img208.imageshack.us/img208/7793/firstvoteportal.png
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legendmusketeer | Posted 11/10/2010 9:02:36 PM | message detail
This can't possibly be the game I have losing to FFXII, can it?
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LM
VaultBoyAlbion | Posted 11/10/2010 9:02:45 PM | message detail
But seriously

Who is gonna have the balls to take Portal over RE4 if this holsd up
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/10/2010 9:02:56 PM | message detail
Let's hope this ends all of that silly Gears vs. Mario upset talk.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/10/2010 9:03:00 PM | message detail
Whoops, wrong topic for my post to be in.
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/10/2010 9:03:03 PM | message detail
Portal looking amazing. Valvefear coming right up!
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
charmander6000 | Posted 11/10/2010 9:03:14 PM | message detail
I know this is the board vote, but it would be pretty crazy if Portal got the tripling.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 37/44 Today's Matches: Portal & FFXII
ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/10/2010 9:03:32 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #433
Let's hope this ends all of that silly Gears vs. Mario upset talk.


Yessir.
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Biolizard28 | Posted 11/10/2010 9:03:32 PM | message detail
Are you a bad enough dude to take Portal all the way?
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I like how each new topic you make reveals such varied facets of your idiocy. - foolmo
Now this is entertainment!
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 11/10/2010 9:03:59 PM | message detail
Even if it drops from the board vote here, we still have that sickeningly horrible Xbox night vote to look forward too.
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Dr Football and Snake have won this round, but Sephiroth will rise again!
ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/10/2010 9:04:28 PM | message detail
Also this makes me feel really good about HL2, also about God of War > ToS
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695924 | Posted 11/10/2010 9:04:32 PM | message detail
Wow. Forget FFX in the finals...
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lol opinions
VaultBoyAlbion | Posted 11/10/2010 9:04:47 PM | message detail
I simply can't believe its stabilized at 79-80%. I woulda thought Gears would be bleeding mad percentage after that board vote
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/10/2010 9:04:57 PM | message detail
single player Valve games > *
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HaRRicH | Posted 11/10/2010 9:05:20 PM | message detail
Finally, confirmation that Fable's a beast!


Portal deserves this. It's probably going to fall...a lot...but I didn't know if it would even get the doubling. This is A-okay.
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Achromatic | Posted 11/10/2010 9:05:23 PM | message detail
this will end up in the 71-72% range if I had to guess.
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Sir Chris
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/10/2010 9:05:24 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4050

I would like to point out that Portal is outperforming FFX vs. VJ!

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DFF
Haste_2 | Posted 11/10/2010 9:05:51 PM | message detail
This definitely makes me feel better about changing from GoW to TTYD. But it's also making me regret changing my Final Four choice from Half-Life 2 to Metroid Prime even more (about the only thing I'm hanging onto now is Metroid Fusion's good showing). I mean, HL2 looked dang impressive, too.

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TheCodeisBosco | Posted 11/10/2010 9:06:01 PM | message detail
Forget about Final Fantasy XII. Forget about Mass Effect. Forget about friggin' Resident Evil 4.

Portal's winning the contest.

...okay, not really, but I'M SO HAPPY I TOOK IT TO THE DIVISION FINALS YESSSSSSSSSS!!!!

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/10/2010 9:06:17 PM | message detail
Let's also preemptively nip the Portal > RE4 fear in the bud.

It will not happen.
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VaultBoyAlbion | Posted 11/10/2010 9:06:38 PM | message detail
You know though, this kinda renews my faith in a Sims > Shadow of the Colossus upset

I remember people were saying Shadow of the Colossus wasn't gonna lose cuz it beat Gears of War.
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