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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 943

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charmander6000 | Posted 11/10/2010 5:18:30 AM | message detail
It sucks that I haven't been on the right side of a close match in a long time.

This is also the first match that a second round winner has lost.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 36/42 Today's Matches: TWEWY & Persona 4
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Achromatic | Posted 11/10/2010 5:18:54 AM | message detail
ok

its official

dead rising is a day game
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Sir Chris
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/10/2010 5:19:36 AM | message detail
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaand we're done here.
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 11/10/2010 5:24:39 AM | message detail
*wakes up*

lol people that said "there is no logic in picking dead rising"
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transience | Posted 11/10/2010 5:26:51 AM | message detail
P4 should be good to take the next round here. it's tough to see TWEWY being stronger than P4 and DR can barely handle P4.

upside for DR: day match.
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xyzzy
transience | Posted 11/10/2010 5:27:13 AM | message detail
er, DR can barely handle TWEWY.
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xyzzy
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/10/2010 5:27:29 AM | message detail
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaand we're done here.

Although looking at that update, that was all TWEWY collapsing since it went back to its normal vote intake on the next update.
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Achromatic | Posted 11/10/2010 5:27:52 AM | message detail

From: transience | #156
er, DR can barely handle TWEWY.


its going to be day match, have to see how p4 does today before any judgment is made.
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Sir Chris
shane15 | Posted 11/10/2010 5:31:09 AM | message detail
Make your time Dead Rising.You'll be listening to this as you fade away next round http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzFl6sWHmXI
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Achromatic | Posted 11/10/2010 5:33:36 AM | message detail
this matchq
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Sir Chris
shane15 | Posted 11/10/2010 5:33:42 AM | message detail
48 vote cut
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ShepardPunch | Posted 11/10/2010 5:34:11 AM | message detail
Big spike there for TWEWY but also a drop off for DR.
Ultimaphazon | Posted 11/10/2010 5:34:29 AM | message detail
Ohh, come on!
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A pro isn't someone who sacrifices himself for his job. That's just a fool. - Reno, FFVII
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shane15 | Posted 11/10/2010 5:35:04 AM | message detail
If TWEWY wins this match it'll be amazing.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/10/2010 5:36:49 AM | message detail
XD

This match indeed.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 36/42 Today's Matches: TWEWY & Persona 4
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/10/2010 5:49:03 AM | message detail

From: Achromatic | #152
ok

its official

dead rising is a day game


Which is why I picked it to win twice!

I had a weird feeling this would be the harder match for it, even though I would pick Persona 4 > TWO
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/10/2010 5:56:15 AM | message detail
Yeah, looks over.

What was up with that 50 vote cut before DR took off?
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ShepardPunch | Posted 11/10/2010 5:56:51 AM | message detail
I have DR to win the next round too but I'm not remotely confident about it. Also banked this match when I had DR originally although I suppose it's not that bad considering how close it has been.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/10/2010 5:58:01 AM | message detail
I'm too far behind to bank on tossups. I'm just glad I finally got a close one right. This contest wasn't fun for me at all for awhile. The most fun is when you call a close one, and to get almost all of them wrong kinda bites.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/10/2010 6:00:22 AM | message detail
Top Option, forever sullied.

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DFF
Articuno2001 | Posted 11/10/2010 6:00:47 AM | message detail
Looks like this will not be the closest wire-to-wire match. DR shot up too much during the day.
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2010 Game of the Decade Contest - 35/42 points - Today: Dead Rising / Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 4
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ShepardPunch | Posted 11/10/2010 6:01:16 AM | message detail
Oh yeah, I wouldn't have banked if it was a contest entry but it's just a karma one. Secondary reasoning was that as silly as it will be to most, I'm torn on XII/CC so didn't think it was worth the risk in this match just for the sake of an extra two matches.
vcharon | Posted 11/10/2010 6:07:27 AM | message detail
DR has a 217 lead, so no record breaking today.
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:>
vcharon | Posted 11/10/2010 6:15:37 AM | message detail
So this one is probably over. It's still within distance and TWEWY is still trying (some updates), but it didn't have a very good night vote... certainly not one that "rocked" DR enough to do any real damage. Completely died off with the morning vote, so far.

This victory for DR will be pretty much all US.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/10/2010 6:16:10 AM | message detail
Huh, apparently some states have switched back over to TWEWY again. Like Georgia, Rhode Island, and Maine.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/10/2010 6:17:26 AM | message detail
TWEWY needs 7 votes an update to win. It's easily doable, but it would need a couple more updates like the one it got 40 minutes ago. It's just treading water now.

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DFF
vcharon | Posted 11/10/2010 6:18:28 AM | message detail
The overall trends of this match heavily favor DR at this point. TWEWY has not been able to consistently make any gains the entire match.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/10/2010 6:20:07 AM | message detail
Intersting while the US is going more DR, the rest of the world has either stayed constant or gone more towards TWEWY.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 36/42 Today's Matches: TWEWY & Persona 4
shane15 | Posted 11/10/2010 6:20:15 AM | message detail
Someone said the UK vote is equal to California.If thats the case then California is being cancelled out by hte UK
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/10/2010 6:21:08 AM | message detail
Match XLIV: (4) Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 4 vs. (13) Braid

Information

Name: Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 4
Year: 2008
Previous Performance: SpC2k9 – 4th in round 1

Name: Braid
Year: 2008
Previous Performance: N/A

Analysis

Between all of the fodder matches this is the one where people are the most positive on. While Persona 4 is pretty weak it still performed much better than what most expect Braid would have done. Braid may be one of the most loved downloadable games on the market, but that isn’t saying much. Downloadable gaming is probably played less on this site than old PC games.

In the GotY poll Braid was easily beaten by Mega Man 9 and while Mega Man 9 can be considered the king of downloadable games it still almost lost to Demon’s Souls earlier this contest. Even take a look at World of Goo, which only performed slightly worse than Braid at the vote-in it finished among the bottom feeders in that poll.

Fodder on fodder matches with a clear winner always tends to be a bit whacky when it comes to the final percent. I expect it to be at the low 60s, but this could end up being closer or Persona 4 could push for something crazy like a tripling. Either way the game needs to look as good as possible for it to have a chance next round where it will face another fodder game.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Persona 4 > Braid

charmander6000’s Prediction: Persona 4 wins, 62.53% - 37.47%

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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 36/42 Today's Matches: TWEWY & Persona 4
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/10/2010 6:21:12 AM | message detail
The DSV is currently in progress right now, so TWEWY has to hope that the DSV favors it more than the BSV. If TWEWY gets the lead within 100 votes going into the last hour, it could win by a late match rally.
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FFDragon | Posted 11/10/2010 6:21:16 AM | message detail
Just wait until the zombies wake up.
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cade | Posted 11/10/2010 6:21:35 AM | message detail
Even tho I would have picked Dead Rising I'm glad I banked in the end. It was too close!
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79/80 Spring Contest 2005
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/10/2010 6:23:24 AM | message detail
Someone said the UK vote is equal to California.If thats the case then California is being cancelled out by hte UK

I think the UK's influence is starting to drop off here, because I remember TWEWY being around 50.5% in Europe around 2 hours ago and it's over 51% again. This is probably the European ASV in action, along with the rest of Europe (besides the UK) having more influence again since the UK calmed down earlier.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!
charmander6000 | Posted 11/10/2010 6:23:59 AM | message detail
While the east coast may be at school it's still not even 6:30am on the west.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 36/42 Today's Matches: TWEWY & Persona 4
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/10/2010 6:26:33 AM | message detail
Woo! This knocks me out of the Battle Contest, but I was never going to win in that shark tank. Looking at DR's regional splits, I feel pretty good about it against Persona as well. I'm not even sure if I'd pick Persona against TWEWY.
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Gnik | Posted 11/10/2010 6:27:16 AM | message detail
Damn, can't believe I got this one wrong.

Don't get me wrong, I hate TWEWY, but I'm stunned that it's rabid supporters didn't get the vote out better than this.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/10/2010 6:28:42 AM | message detail
Man, I just can't get ANYTHING right in this contest.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/10/2010 6:31:56 AM | message detail
Honestly, I'm relieved to be out of the running for the Battle Contest. Now I can just enjoy the contest! Gogo a bunch of fanboy upsets I didn't have the guts to take in my bracket!

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DFF
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/10/2010 6:33:48 AM | message detail
I'm glad I don't have to bank for the rest of R1. Will make for some fun picks.
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Articuno2001 | Posted 11/10/2010 6:34:24 AM | message detail
(12) Dead Rising over (5) The World Ends With You (In Progress)

it was a decent gamble imo
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2010 Game of the Decade Contest - 35/42 points - Today: Dead Rising / Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 4
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/10/2010 6:34:47 AM | message detail
This also confirms Baldur's Gate II's win since I have SoA.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 36/42 Today's Matches: TWEWY & Persona 4
vcharon | Posted 11/10/2010 6:35:34 AM | message detail
DR putting this one out of reach. The end result is looking like it won't indicate just how close this match was.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/10/2010 6:36:31 AM | message detail
I ended up banking this match, which will add another 13600 points to the 6600 banked points I already have. I feel pretty good going on a streak for the rest of this round and most of round 2.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!
Ultimaphazon | Posted 11/10/2010 6:36:33 AM | message detail
Aww yeah, Oracle curse lives on. I had DR but switched to TWEWY before the match.
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A pro isn't someone who sacrifices himself for his job. That's just a fool. - Reno, FFVII
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/10/2010 6:37:16 AM | message detail
*sees DR > TWEWY in bracket*

yeeeees, not a total loss! Bracket-wise, this if the first close one I've got right since...Jesus, Halo 3/Sunshine?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/10/2010 6:39:17 AM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #166
even though I would pick Persona 4 > TWO


What is TWO?

Also, whoo, my first game eliminated that I had going two rounds
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Ultimaphazon | Posted 11/10/2010 6:39:36 AM | message detail
I ended up banking this match, which will add another 13600 points to the 6600 banked points I already have. I feel pretty good going on a streak for the rest of this round and most of round 2.

Heh, my battle challenge is the exact same. I banked 6600 on WC3/Morrowind, and now 13600 on this match
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A pro isn't someone who sacrifices himself for his job. That's just a fool. - Reno, FFVII
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FFDragon | Posted 11/10/2010 6:40:07 AM | message detail
So looks like I'll go 2/3 on my vocal R1 picks (SF4 Son and DR) with only RE5 making me look silly. Meatloaf says that ain't bad.

Unfortunately my silent picks like DMC to R3 have been kicking me in the balls.
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If you wake up at a different time, in a different place, could you wake up as a different person? [HERO'S PLUNGE]
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/10/2010 6:40:16 AM | message detail
The US is going crazy right now. DR's US percentage just increased from 53.52% to 53.66% in 10 minutes. With a big increase like that, I bet over 60% of the US voters are favoring DR over TWEWY at this time of the day.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!