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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 943

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paulg235 | Posted 11/9/2010 11:10:52 PM | message detail
Frank's covered TWEWY, you know.

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~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

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~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Solid Snake, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.
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The Gamer In Me
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Blairville | Posted 11/9/2010 11:14:25 PM | message detail
Think I'll start rallying for Dead Rising... nah.

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vcharon | Posted 11/9/2010 11:19:48 PM | message detail
Wow, one wasn't made. Shocking!
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EvilNcr | Posted 11/9/2010 11:20:25 PM | message detail
13 votes. 13. Night vote. Zombies. I see a pattern.
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"You have enemies? Good. That means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life." ~ Winston Churchill
ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/9/2010 11:20:52 PM | message detail

From: EvilNcr | #004
13 votes. 13. Night vote. Zombies. I see a pattern.


oh stop it Nic
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SubDeityMkIII | Posted 11/9/2010 11:22:49 PM | message detail
If Dead Rising wins by less than 100 votes I will credit it to the Shaun of the Dead Factor making the UK like Dead Rising.
Blairville | Posted 11/9/2010 11:26:05 PM | message detail
TWEWY making small ass cuts, don't see it building up to enough for the morning vote.

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vcharon | Posted 11/9/2010 11:26:46 PM | message detail
TWEWY has taken over in Chile. This one might be over folks.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/9/2010 11:27:33 PM | message detail
http://wordsmith.org/anagram/anagram.cgi?anagram=Zing%2C+it%27s+over.&t=1000&a=n

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DFF
frisqo | Posted 11/9/2010 11:28:12 PM | message detail
I'm in absolute disbelief at the amount of close matches we've had this contest. 8 years and this contest will probably end up having more close matches than all the other contests put together. 12hr format ftw

And we're not even done with the 1st round yet!!
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Name: Flex
FC: 4510 7199 0698
EvilNcr | Posted 11/9/2010 11:28:39 PM | message detail
Over Zing Sit
LOL
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"You have enemies? Good. That means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life." ~ Winston Churchill
transience | Posted 11/9/2010 11:29:12 PM | message detail
see that 9 vote cut? that was Europe there, folks.
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xyzzy
Ultimaphazon | Posted 11/9/2010 11:29:52 PM | message detail
Considering how much DR is winning the UK, I think DR will constantly be gaining percentage in Europe and could actually end up winning Europe.
You know, since UK's influence on Europe keeps rising as the match goes on, what with being an hour later than the mainland Europe.
We saw the same phenomenon in P3/Civ 4, where P3 started at 60% in Europe, but by the end, the European percentage was lower than the the world average.
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A pro isn't someone who sacrifices himself for his job. That's just a fool. - Reno, FFVII
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/9/2010 11:30:18 PM | message detail
Gent I Vizors

Gentlemen I. Vizors declares this match over and done with.

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DFF
vcharon | Posted 11/9/2010 11:31:36 PM | message detail
Get In Vizors

Zombies approach.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/9/2010 11:33:31 PM | message detail
You know, we're seeing a lot of consistent TWEWY cuts followed by a big Dead Rising update. George Romero, at it again!

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DFF
ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/9/2010 11:36:23 PM | message detail
George Romero back and helping a zombie game?

Talk about storylines!
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AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 11/9/2010 11:39:51 PM | message detail
Jeez, 13 days til Koolaid vs. Alec TESTICLE BET.
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vcharon | Posted 11/9/2010 11:41:30 PM | message detail
TWEWY back in front now. Any chance for stabilization?
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/9/2010 11:42:19 PM | message detail
So glad I banked.

SO GLAD THAT I BANKED.
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Haguile | Posted 11/9/2010 11:42:46 PM | message detail
1 vote lead? At this point, I'll take anything I can get!
SabrielAbhorsen | Posted 11/9/2010 11:44:38 PM | message detail
The World Ends With You 50% 6339
Dead Rising 50% 6338
TOTAL VOTES 12677


intense
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Blairville | Posted 11/9/2010 11:50:00 PM | message detail
Silence as we pray the zombie horde doesn't notice us.

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peril1337, the cream of Kirby fanboyism
Blairville | Posted 11/9/2010 11:50:26 PM | message detail
Also these updates are off by a few seconds, what's up with that?

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Kingdom Hearts marathon December 17th-20th, be there!
Greyfeld | Posted 11/9/2010 11:52:48 PM | message detail
ugh if somebody doesn't take a solid lead soon, I'm gonna end up losing sleep over this match
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PSN - Aevio
Playing: Might & Magic: Clash of Heroes
paulg235 | Posted 11/9/2010 11:54:14 PM | message detail

From: Blairville | #024
Also these updates are off by a few seconds, what's up with that?


The updates usually last an extra couple of seconds each time.
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The Gamer In Me
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/9/2010 11:55:09 PM | message detail
this contest
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/9/2010 11:56:04 PM | message detail
http://img208.imageshack.us/img208/7548/thiscontest2.png

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DFF
Big Bob | Posted 11/9/2010 11:58:41 PM | message detail
Argh, they're still going at it? I like it better when close matches happen in the day so I can actually get to see them.
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Haguile | Posted 11/10/2010 12:01:48 AM | message detail
I know I should give up given the 40 vote lead but...

UNTIL THE TIME IS UP
Ultimaphazon | Posted 11/10/2010 12:02:25 AM | message detail
Dead Rising up 40. I'm expecting a cut on the next update. Can't let Dead Rising get a comfortable lead.
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A pro isn't someone who sacrifices himself for his job. That's just a fool. - Reno, FFVII
http://i25.tinypic.com/2cp5chf.jpg
EvilNcr | Posted 11/10/2010 12:03:23 AM | message detail
Hey. Turns out Albion is right. It's 3 AM and Europe is now voting.
Too bad it's Dead Rising that's pulling away. ;)
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"You have enemies? Good. That means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life." ~ Winston Churchill
Ultimaphazon | Posted 11/10/2010 12:06:11 AM | message detail
Just wait until Asia starts voting.
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A pro isn't someone who sacrifices himself for his job. That's just a fool. - Reno, FFVII
http://i25.tinypic.com/2cp5chf.jpg
Greyfeld | Posted 11/10/2010 12:06:20 AM | message detail
TWEWY still has the leading percentage in europe, there's been no voting surge yet, TWEWY's votals have been falling off some more.
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PSN - Aevio
Playing: Might & Magic: Clash of Heroes
Greyfeld | Posted 11/10/2010 12:11:28 AM | message detail
Are you freaking KIDDING me???

TWEWY just lost about 0.7% in Europe, placing it less than 1% from a 50-50 split. This match goes to Dead Rising, and I lose over 21k battle points.

I'm going to stay up a bit longer to keep an eye on the poll, but this is the point where I'm unofficially calling the match over.
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PSN - Aevio
Playing: Might & Magic: Clash of Heroes
Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/10/2010 12:12:29 AM | message detail
Ugh

There's still the American morning which could go either way.

Come on TWEWY.
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Achromatic | Posted 11/10/2010 12:12:30 AM | message detail

From: Greyfeld | #035
Are you freaking KIDDING me???

TWEWY just lost about 0.7% in Europe, placing it less than 1% from a 50-50 split. This match goes to Dead Rising, and I lose over 21k battle points.

I'm going to stay up a bit longer to keep an eye on the poll, but this is the point where I'm unofficially calling the match over.


Where's your God now?
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Sir Chris
vcharon | Posted 11/10/2010 12:12:46 AM | message detail
You forgot "zing".

=(
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/10/2010 12:14:51 AM | message detail
This is why I picked DR in my bracket.

So good.

So glad that I banked. I would have been LIVID.
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Pizzaknight | Posted 11/10/2010 12:22:30 AM | message detail
This match is a hyper close one, just as expected. Everyone who banked on this match with a considerable streak deserves a pat on the bank. You absolutely chose the right time. As for the rest of us, who really need to get a big streak going, we needed to go with our guts. My gut said Dead Rising, and I'm on edge. This could be the new TF2/Fable.....
ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/10/2010 12:22:42 AM | message detail
Wouldn't it be just a ****ing trip if TWEWY won the morning vote now? hahaha
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Greyfeld | Posted 11/10/2010 12:22:52 AM | message detail
This is why I picked DR in my bracket.

So good.

So glad that I banked. I would have been LIVID.


I have DR in my bracket, tbh. I'd rather lose the bracket pick to get my battle pick right.
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PSN - Aevio
Playing: Might & Magic: Clash of Heroes
ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/10/2010 12:23:30 AM | message detail

From: Greyfeld | #042
This is why I picked DR in my bracket.

So good.

So glad that I banked. I would have been LIVID.


I have DR in my bracket, tbh. I'd rather lose the bracket pick to get my battle pick right.


So would I. I think my banked position is much better than yours is at the present, though.
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Pizzaknight | Posted 11/10/2010 12:23:38 AM | message detail
This match is a hyper close one, almost exactly as I expected. Everyone who banked on this match with a considerable streak deserves a pat on the bank. You absolutely chose the right time. As for the rest of us, who really need to get a big streak going, we needed to go with our guts. My gut said Dead Rising, and I'm on edge. This could be the new TF2/Fable.....
Greyfeld | Posted 11/10/2010 12:24:06 AM | message detail
This match is a hyper close one, just as expected. Everyone who banked on this match with a considerable streak deserves a pat on the bank. You absolutely chose the right time. As for the rest of us, who really need to get a big streak going, we needed to go with our guts. My gut said Dead Rising, and I'm on edge. This could be the new TF2/Fable.....

lol and my gut said TWEWY... looks like yours wins.
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PSN - Aevio
Playing: Might & Magic: Clash of Heroes
Blairville | Posted 11/10/2010 12:24:23 AM | message detail
My gut also said DR and I'm glad I stuck with it, although the morning vote worries me.

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Greyfeld | Posted 11/10/2010 12:25:10 AM | message detail
I was considering banking on SoA/BG2, but if TWEWY blows this match, it won't matter.
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PSN - Aevio
Playing: Might & Magic: Clash of Heroes
Greyfeld | Posted 11/10/2010 12:27:30 AM | message detail
I have a question...

For those of you concerned about the morning vote, why would you consider TWEWY to take that vote when North America is already leaning DR via the night vote?
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PSN - Aevio
Playing: Might & Magic: Clash of Heroes
Pizzaknight | Posted 11/10/2010 12:27:35 AM | message detail
Whoops, sorry for the double post. I thought I stopped the first one, but whatever, it's only a slight wording change for the first sentence.
EvilNcr | Posted 11/10/2010 12:28:51 AM | message detail
I changed from DR to bank. So I'm starting to regret it a little bit.
Oh well.
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"You have enemies? Good. That means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life." ~ Winston Churchill