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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 942

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transience | Posted 11/9/2010 9:58:47 PM | message detail

Why do people keep saying "it's over" when it obviously isn't?

it's a weird injoke, kinda. the stats topic is weird if you don't follow it closely.
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xyzzy

ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/9/2010 9:59:15 PM | message detail

From: transience | #346
I'm cool with speculating on things that matter, but this stuff? most of it doesn't even mean anything. TWEWY was winning early and Europe had 60%, so obviously it was Europe. one update later and it was down to 53%. then we have the California vote which has never meant anything besides in a Street Fighter match.

I just want people to use data that has meaning, you know?

I dunno dude, one of the most fun days was GTAIV/RSE with Albion predicting XBox ASV trends for GTAIV and the rest of us telling him he was wrong.
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http://i974.photobucket.com/albums/ae229/yungflyerz/67106910.jpg

vcharon | Posted 11/9/2010 9:59:20 PM | message detail

From: SubDeityMkIII | #348
Why do people keep saying "it's over" when it obviously isn't?

Parody. Apparently they believe they're parodying me, but in reality it's sort of the other way around. I haven't posted in stats as much this contest, but I still watch the topic. Just about every single one of these guys were calling certain matches that weren't over long before they actually were (WC3/Morrowind, anyone?)
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/9/2010 9:59:31 PM | message detail

From: ExThaNemesis | #350
damn this match is going to make it very difficult to get any homework done tonight

I have a test tomorrow morning!

This contest!

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DFF

transience | Posted 11/9/2010 9:59:35 PM | message detail

dude, Albion predicts wrong things fully knowing that he's wrong.
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xyzzy

GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/9/2010 9:59:39 PM | message detail

TWEWY leads by 91 next update, BOOK IT
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Oracle contest - 36th
Today's pick: World Ends With You - 50.33% Status:

vcharon | Posted 11/9/2010 9:59:50 PM | message detail

It really is over though.
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cirRca | Posted 11/9/2010 10:00:32 PM | message detail

From: GrapefruitKing | #356
TWEWY leads by 91 next update, BOOK IT

46 :l
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Someday a real rain will come and wash all this scum off the streets.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/9/2010 10:00:39 PM | message detail

Zing, it's over.

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DFF

ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/9/2010 10:00:48 PM | message detail

there we go DR!
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http://i974.photobucket.com/albums/ae229/yungflyerz/67106910.jpg

ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/9/2010 10:01:12 PM | message detail

From: vcharon | #353
Parody. Apparently they believe they're parodying me, but in reality it's sort of the other way around. I haven't posted in stats as much this contest, but I still watch the topic. Just about every single one of these guys were calling certain matches that weren't over long before they actually were (WC3/Morrowind, anyone?)

oh come on dude

really?
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http://i974.photobucket.com/albums/ae229/yungflyerz/67106910.jpg

vcharon | Posted 11/9/2010 10:01:23 PM | message detail

It's impossible to tell still, in all seriousness. It's back and forth. DR was on a roll, then TWEWY posted some decent updates. Now another cut.

Match never gets out of 100 vote lead either way? Let's do it.
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TheCodeisBosco | Posted 11/9/2010 10:01:31 PM | message detail

Man, I love this contest.

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CURRENT GOTY SCORE: 36
Wake up, Mr. West!

vcharon | Posted 11/9/2010 10:01:40 PM | message detail

From: ExThaNemesis | #361
oh come on dude

really?

You're denying that happened?

Really?
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transience | Posted 11/9/2010 10:02:03 PM | message detail

vcharon's backpedaling at record speed

Ulti would be proud
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xyzzy

vcharon | Posted 11/9/2010 10:03:10 PM | message detail

It's a well know fact everyone in this topic is obligated to call a match by 00:15 one way or another. It's just a rule.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/9/2010 10:04:18 PM | message detail

From: vcharon | #364
You're denying that happened?

Really?

I'm not denying that happened, but like, we all embrace the fact that we've stupidly called matches far too early and it's bad form to be like "haw haw joke's on you guys" when we KNOW that.

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http://i974.photobucket.com/albums/ae229/yungflyerz/67106910.jpg

vcharon | Posted 11/9/2010 10:06:27 PM | message detail

I must be out of sync with posting in here now I guess.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/9/2010 10:06:47 PM | message detail

Zing.

It's over.
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http://i974.photobucket.com/albums/ae229/yungflyerz/67106910.jpg

vcharon | Posted 11/9/2010 10:08:22 PM | message detail

Dead Rising is currently winning Japan!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/9/2010 10:09:10 PM | message detail

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4111&region=ASI

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DFF

vcharon | Posted 11/9/2010 10:10:05 PM | message detail

I've seen. I doubt it will hang on to Japan, just found it interesting. TWEWY isn't doing nearly as well in Asia as I expected.
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Greyfeld | Posted 11/9/2010 10:11:40 PM | message detail

considering the phillipines give us more votes than japan, i'm not too worried.

Also, Europe is trending back toward TWEWY, they're back up over 55%, which is a fantastic sign.

NoDicePwn | Posted 11/9/2010 10:12:01 PM | message detail

At this pace, I don't think DR will ever even take the lead before the night vote kicks in. If it can't even take the lead at this point, then GG.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/9/2010 10:12:21 PM | message detail

Most of TWEWY's strength in Asia is coming from the Philippines.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!

PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/9/2010 10:13:46 PM | message detail

Let's briefly switch topics to the next match I'm considering a bank: MvC2 vs. NSMBWii. I think it's possible that MvC2 could be stronger than SFIV, and there's no guarantee that Wii Mario Bros. would be stronger than Sonic Adventure 2. That one is very tricky to analyze.
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg
Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world!

KamikazePotato | Posted 11/9/2010 10:14:21 PM | message detail

Wasn't MVC2 Dreamcast-only? Or am I missing something?

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DFF

-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/9/2010 10:15:12 PM | message detail

TWEWY might be over 55% in Europe, but it's above 58% in the UK. The UK just happens to be one hour behind the rest of the Europe, so it will take some time for the UK to influence this poll.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!

PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/9/2010 10:15:30 PM | message detail

It had a PS2 port and was released as 360 and PS3 DLC last year. I believe it's among the most downloaded and highly rated DLC on both consoles.
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Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world!

cirRca | Posted 11/9/2010 10:15:58 PM | message detail

Oh boy, here we go...
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I've abandoned my child! I've abandoned my child! I've abandoned my boy!
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EvilNcr | Posted 11/9/2010 10:16:04 PM | message detail

I love how incredibly irrational several of you are.
Jesus, it's 1:15 AM. And LOL, wow. Now it's 50.11%
"Night vote"
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"You have enemies? Good. That means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life." ~ Winston Churchill

vcharon | Posted 11/9/2010 10:16:07 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #377
Wasn't MVC2 Dreamcast-only? Or am I missing something?

It had a PS2/XBox release in 2002. It's on the virtual stores also.
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KefkaMayDie | Posted 11/9/2010 10:16:12 PM | message detail

Nice update for DR :)
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I do it for the One or more unread System Notifications
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/9/2010 10:17:01 PM | message detail

From: EvilNcr | #381
I love how incredibly irrational several of you are.
Jesus, it's 1:15 AM. And LOL, wow. Now it's 50.11%
"Night vote"

Everyone has just been joking around. As was previously mentioned, a lot of the stats guys have been posting in this topic for years, and we've developed lots of in-jokes and a weird sense of humor.
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg
Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world!

TheCodeisBosco | Posted 11/9/2010 10:17:06 PM | message detail

(insert Undertaker gif here)

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CURRENT GOTY SCORE: 36
Wake up, Mr. West!

Greyfeld | Posted 11/9/2010 10:17:10 PM | message detail

I think we should be asking how close NSMBW is to SMG.

vcharon | Posted 11/9/2010 10:17:25 PM | message detail

MvC2 also has the hype for its sequel going for it. I don't know if it can beat Mario though. I tend to overestimate him a lot these days however.
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vcharon | Posted 11/9/2010 10:17:51 PM | message detail

DR takes the lead next update.
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Greyfeld | Posted 11/9/2010 10:18:29 PM | message detail

that last update saw TWEWY's votes taking a nose dive.

Articuno2001 | Posted 11/9/2010 10:18:37 PM | message detail

From: vcharon | #388
DR takes the lead next update.

I don't think so.
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2010 Game of the Decade Contest - 35/42 points - Today: Dead Rising / Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 4
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GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/9/2010 10:18:50 PM | message detail

If DR takes the lead now this is pretty much over.
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Oracle contest - 36th
Today's pick: World Ends With You - 50.33% Status:

vcharon | Posted 11/9/2010 10:19:26 PM | message detail

From: Articuno2001 | #390
I don't think so.

Shhhh, don't ruin my jinx attempts.
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azuarc | Posted 11/9/2010 10:19:54 PM | message detail

Kinda sad I lost track of the time and didn't click over to the site until after 1 AM. One of the most entertaining parts of this thread was paging back to where 12:00 hit and reading forward, and noticing that the thread got about 4 pages longer in the process.

And Dead Rising better win. I have it going two rounds. More importantly, however: I actually know what it is!

EvilNcr | Posted 11/9/2010 10:20:42 PM | message detail

And here we go. 5 votes.
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"You have enemies? Good. That means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life." ~ Winston Churchill

vcharon | Posted 11/9/2010 10:20:48 PM | message detail

From: azuarc | #393
Kinda sad I lost track of the time and didn't click over to the site until after 1 AM. One of the most entertaining parts of this thread was paging back to where 12:00 hit and reading forward, and noticing that the thread got about 4 pages longer in the process.

And Dead Rising better win. I have it going two rounds. More importantly, however: I actually know what it is!

It's not going to win any match after this one, if it wins at all.
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cirRca | Posted 11/9/2010 10:21:21 PM | message detail

Dammit TWEWY, what happened?
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Gentlemen, you can't fight in here. This is the War Room!
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MegatokyoEd | Posted 11/9/2010 10:22:34 PM | message detail

TWEWY got the power hour Nintendo vote.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/9/2010 10:23:07 PM | message detail

From: vcharon | #395
It's not going to win any match after this one, if it wins at all.

DR seems like it might be stronger in the day, and I'd imagine Persona has a worse day vote than TWEWY. There's also no guarantee that Persona is stronger than TWEWY in the first place; I'd take both of tonight's games to beat Civilization.
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Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world!

vcharon | Posted 11/9/2010 10:23:44 PM | message detail

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

vcharon | Posted 11/9/2010 10:24:42 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #398
DR seems like it might be stronger in the day, and I'd imagine Persona has a worse day vote than TWEWY. There's also no guarantee that Persona is stronger than TWEWY in the first place; I'd take both of tonight's games to beat Civilization.

Originally I was confident in DR, but this performance has me thinking Persona is just outright stronger than it is, strange as that feels to say. I was expecting DR to be up comfortably with 52-53% by now, so for it not to me makes me feel it really is just a weak game. It's no doubt better during the day, but still.
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