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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 941

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SubDeity | Posted 11/8/2010 9:20:09 PM | message detail
Wyoming'd....it's going 100% for Jet Grind Radio right now.
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Haste_2 | Posted 11/8/2010 9:20:54 PM | message detail
Bacon, stop the poll right now, and only count Wyoming's votes!

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
eaglesarebeasts | Posted 11/8/2010 9:21:42 PM | message detail
Come on Skies of Arcadia! Redeem the Dreamcast!
charmander6000 | Posted 11/8/2010 9:24:27 PM | message detail
Updated Top 5

Top 5 Biggest Day Vote Gaps
1. Super Smash Bros. Brawl – 44460 vs. Mario Kart DS – 8936 (R1) – 35524
2. LoZ: Twilight Princess – 47034 vs. Shenmue – 12220 (R1) – 34814
3. Kingdom Hearts – 43966 vs. Castlevania: DoS – 13206 (R1) – 30760
4. Final Fantasy IX – 41701 vs. Phoenix Wright: AA T&T – 13760 (R1) – 27941
5. Half-Life 2 – 35766 vs. Left 4 Dead 2 – 12254 (R1) – 23512

Top 5 Smallest Night Vote Gaps
1. Valkyria Chronicles – 16384 vs. Disgaea – 14876 (R1) – 1508
2. Persona 3 – 17585 vs. Civilization IV – 16009 (R1) – 1576
3. Tales of Symphonia – 20805 vs. Resident Evil 5 – 19077 (R1) – 1728
4. Halo 3 – 22476 vs. Super Mario Sunshine – 20315 (R1) – 2161
5. Mega Man 9 – 20447 vs. Demon’s Souls – 18134 (R1) – 2313

Top 5 Least Popular Night Polls
1. Valkyria Chronicles vs. Disgaea (R1) – 31260
2. Persona 3 vs. Civilization IV (R1) – 33594
3. Bioshock vs. Star Wars: Battlefront II (R1) – 34083
4. Perfect Dark vs. Conker’s BFD (R1) – 35424
5. Golden Sun vs. Ratchet & Clank: UYA (R1) – 35439

Top 5 Highest Individual Day Votes
1. LoZ: Twilight Princess (R1) – 47034
2. Super Smash Bros. Brawl (R1) – 44460
3. Kingdom Hearts (R1) – 43966
4. Final Fantasy IX (R1) – 41701
5. Kingdom Hearts II (R1) – 37478

Top 5 Least Impressive Night Winners
1. Valkyria Chronicles (R1) – 16384
2. Persona 3 (R1) – 17585
3. Pokemon DPP (R1) – 19880
4. Mega Man 9 (R1) – 20447
5. Tales of Symphonia (R1) – 20805

Top 5 Hardest Matches to Predict
1. Pokemon RSE vs. Grand Theft Auto IV (R1) – 26.23%
2. Morrowind vs. Warcraft III (R1) – 32.76%
3. Deus Ex vs. Rock Band 2 (R1) – 36.61%
4. Persona 3 vs. Civilization IV (R1) – 42.85%
5. Tales of Symphonia vs. Resident Evil 5 (R1) – 43.87%

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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 34/40 Today's Matches: RE4 & GTA: VC
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/8/2010 9:39:50 PM | message detail
About Dead Rising... How many X-Box action games do good during the night, though? I can't think of any.

Going back on Dead Rising again, here are the trends for Frank West's two contest matches:

Time | Ada Wong | Balthier | Frank West | Jade Curtiss
EBV | 40.10% | 32.58% | 16.94% | 10.38%
PHV | 38.25% | 32.79% | 18.99% | 9.97%
FNV | 39.16% | 33.68% | 18.68% | 8.48%
BSV | 37.71% | 33.94% | 19.51% | 8.83%
DSV | 38.63% | 34.00% | 19.67% | 7.70%
ASV | 38.27% | 31.76% | 21.58% | 8.39%
SNV | 37.92% | 33.67% | 19.84% | 8.57%

Time | Amaterasu | Crono | Frank West | Kaim Argonar
EBV | 28.47% | 48.60% | 15.00% | 7.93%
PHV | 26.26% | 50.72% | 15.54% | 7.48%
FNV | 26.18% | 50.44% | 15.49% | 7.89%
BSV | 27.46% | 48.67% | 15.58% | 8.29%
DSV | 26.68% | 49.13% | 15.88% | 8.30%
ASV | 26.70% | 48.10% | 17.21% | 8.00%
SNV | 25.41% | 50.88% | 15.53% | 8.17%

In both matches, the board vote was Frank West's worst time. Good for TWEWY, at least. The ASV was Frank West's best time, but wasn't an excellent ASV by any means. I'd probably throw Frank West in the "Upper Tier" of red sox's ASV tier list, which consists of stuff like Super Mario Bros. and Metroid. For the second match, Frank West's trends are more balanced over the course of the match, with the exception of the ASV.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!
HaRRicH | Posted 11/8/2010 9:53:59 PM | message detail
BG2 has something else in its corner against SoA, too: THE LIST

#64: Baldur's Gate II: Shadows of Amn - PC
#68: Skies of Arcadia - DC

As if we don't have enough iffy evidence for this match.....
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Nominate EPONA...or the terrorists win.
http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/8/2010 10:02:18 PM | message detail
Thats it, I'm sold. Never doubt The List.
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ZFS | Posted 11/8/2010 10:09:45 PM | message detail
Hail.

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The whole object of travel is not to set foot on foreign land; it is at last to set foot on one's own country as a foreign land.
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/8/2010 10:58:33 PM | message detail
Infamous or Jet Grind Radio, who would you take?
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MoogleKupo141 | Posted 11/8/2010 11:04:33 PM | message detail
Infamous for sure

but I really didn't realize anyone ever cared about Jet Grind Radio, so what do I know
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For your health.
At least Kupo has class and doesn't MESSAGE the people -Dr Pizza
Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 11/9/2010 3:51:37 AM | message detail
Man it seems that RE 4 might beat FF X...I wonder why it became so weak?
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voltch | Posted 11/9/2010 4:06:46 AM | message detail
I still wouldn't call RE4 over FFX, Dreamcast games have taken such a beating this contest, they make anything they face look good.
I'll have to keep that in mind...oh damn Skies of Arcadia is doomed.
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*Shakes Fist*
shane15 | Posted 11/9/2010 4:30:39 AM | message detail
I'd cry tears of joy if Resi 4 got past the quarter finals.
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nintendogirl1 (Moderator) | Posted 11/9/2010 4:33:05 AM | message detail
From: voltch | #312
I still wouldn't call RE4 over FFX, Dreamcast games have taken such a beating this contest, they make anything they face look good.
I'll have to keep that in mind...oh damn Skies of Arcadia is doomed.


PC versus Dreamcast... probably sides PC.

But they're both shocking on this site. SoA at least has the GC remake.
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Which will do good things for it.
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 11/9/2010 4:37:29 AM | message detail
Well if Baldur's Gate II wins it gets a date with another game from its own company. What a joy, it'll be fun to see how much SFF Mass Effect can get, or even if it does at all!
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Currently Playing: StarCraft, Zelda: Ocarina of Time
nintendogirl1 (Moderator) | Posted 11/9/2010 4:40:29 AM | message detail
I'm not seeing that much SFF there. There's a massive difference beween BG2 and ME, mainly the whole console thing.
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:p
voltch | Posted 11/9/2010 4:42:16 AM | message detail
oh yeah, if there's anything SoA can hope for is that people don't remember it;s a DC game.
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Uguu~
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/9/2010 4:54:57 AM | message detail
I'm not sure why people thought RE4 could get 85% here (unless they're weirdos who think it's got a shot to beat FFX). Yeah, JGR's weak, but I don't think RE4's the kind of game to pull that off. 80% is still really good though.
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Support Otacon (Metal Gear Solid) for Character Battle IX!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/9/2010 4:57:12 AM | message detail
Yesterday's chart:

Time | FFIX | PW: T&T | Votes
0:05 | 71.52% | 28.48% | 639
1:00 | 75.20% | 24.80% | 6789
2:00 | 75.51% | 24.49% | 5843
3:00 | 75.62% | 24.38% | 5267
4:00 | 74.69% | 25.31% | 5536
5:00 | 73.94% | 26.06% | 4989
6:00 | 74.33% | 25.67% | 5114
7:00 | 75.17% | 24.83% | 4889
8:00 | 75.48% | 24.52% | 4066
9:00 | 76.51% | 23.49% | 3776
10:00 | 75.79% | 24.21% | 3416
11:00 | 75.26% | 24.74% | 3121
12:00 | 75.52% | 24.48% | 2655

Not too much shifting here, but these are games with similar trends, so yeah. T&T manages 3 hours during the ASV where it had averaged over 25%, but not really anything else of note here.
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"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"
HaRRicH | Posted 11/9/2010 5:07:34 AM | message detail

From: nintendogirl1 | #314
But they're both shocking on this site. SoA at least has the GC remake.


Didn't do much for SA2!
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Where's your horse?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/9/2010 5:09:25 AM | message detail

From: HaRRicH | #320
Didn't do much for SA2!


SA2 would've been beaten even WORSE without it!
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voltch | Posted 11/9/2010 6:33:45 AM | message detail
it would have been easier to pick SFIV over it then!
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mii~
charmander6000 | Posted 11/9/2010 7:22:12 AM | message detail
Match XLII: (8) Grand Theft Auto: Vice City vs. (9) Silent Hill 2

Information

Name: Grand Theft Auto: Vice City
Year: 2002
Previous Performance: SpC2k9 – 4th in round 2

Name: Silent Hill 2
Year: 2001
Previous Performance: SpC2k9 – 4th in round 1

Analysis

It’s a shame that Vice City was given the one and done treatment, but you can’t have everything. For an 8/9 match there is very little talk, people aren’t even giving their opinions on by how much Vice City would win by.

Silent Hill 2 was one of the weakest entrants from last contest to return to this contest, sure you can argue that Silent Hill 2 was behind two large PS2 games, but Vice City was not only behind the same two games, but Kingdom Hearts was there too. I’m not a strong believer in large Playstation 2 SFF/LFF, but that should more or less cancel everything out.

The board always find it fun to see how GTA is going to screw up this time, but for Vice City its path is foolproof; the only thing that could happen is that it majorly underperforms against Silent Hill 2. Then again Silent Hill never got any respect on GameFAQs and while it was a large series it never seemed to take off on this site.

charmander6000’s Bracket: GTA: Vice City > Silent Hill 2

charmander6000’s Prediction: GTA: Vice City wins, 68.37% - 31.63%

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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 34/40 Today's Matches: RE4 & GTA: VC
__Smurf__ | Posted 11/9/2010 8:52:45 AM | message detail
Given the amount of times Vice City and Tommy Vercetti have broken brackets in the past its odd to see it with such a predictable path.
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Smurf , The cream of Sonic fanboyism.
Advokaiser | Posted 11/9/2010 8:55:11 AM | message detail
Good morning. I have a question:

Dead Rising vs. Demon's Souls

and

Mega Man 9 vs. TWEWY

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"I remember a time when someone called World of Warcraft 'World of WoW'"
Master Moltar | Posted 11/9/2010 9:00:11 AM | message detail
Grand Theft Auto: Vice City 50%

3
Silent Hill 2 50%

3
TOTAL VOTES 6
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Moltar Status: Bracket: Vice City (35/41)
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/9/2010 9:00:19 AM | message detail
Grand Theft Auto: Vice City 42.86%

3
Silent Hill 2 57.14%

4
TOTAL VOTES 7

Great job, guys!
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Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world!
ZenOfThunder | Posted 11/9/2010 9:00:31 AM | message detail
well that was fun
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/9/2010 9:00:32 AM | message detail
MOLTAR WHY
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Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world!
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/9/2010 9:00:45 AM | message detail
For a brief moment in time, all was right.

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DFF
GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/9/2010 9:00:50 AM | message detail
I'm so glad this borefest only lasts 12 hours
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Oracle contest - 37th
Today's pick: Hawaiian Shirt - 64.33% Status:
Denzokuken | Posted 11/9/2010 9:01:42 AM | message detail
dammit Silent Hill 3 should be in this contest, we don't need to see SH2 embarrass itself again.
Master Moltar | Posted 11/9/2010 9:02:02 AM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #329
MOLTAR WHY


http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/8510/tigerj.gif
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Moltar Status: Bracket: Vice City (35/41)
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/9/2010 9:02:03 AM | message detail
Morrowind > Vice City now?

God how that game has fallen
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 11/9/2010 9:02:18 AM | message detail
silent hill 3 is getting a movie treatment

poor mr sunderland deserves SOMETHING
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/9/2010 9:02:32 AM | message detail
Silent Hill 2 is doing way better than I expected. Remember that this game got doubled by Morrowind.

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DFF
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/9/2010 9:02:53 AM | message detail
Wow, SH doing much better than I thought. Should have never used stats for this one!
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Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world!
Gooper Blooper | Posted 11/9/2010 9:02:57 AM | message detail
more like silent fail mirite
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And then the car wash cost five dollars.
Pokemon Platinum: 1719 9497 5082 Pokemon HeartGold: 2966 0920 7723
GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/9/2010 9:03:16 AM | message detail
yeah... I'm not sure why so many people thought Vice City was strong enough to get a doubling here
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Oracle contest - 37th
Today's pick: Hawaiian Shirt - 64.33% Status:
Gooper Blooper | Posted 11/9/2010 9:03:25 AM | message detail
Oh wait apparently it's beating expectations

you go SH
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And then the car wash cost five dollars.
Pokemon Platinum: 1719 9497 5082 Pokemon HeartGold: 2966 0920 7723
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/9/2010 9:03:40 AM | message detail
more like silent fail mirite

Its far outdoing expectations, it should have at least been doubled. Should spare it the silly insults imo
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/9/2010 9:03:46 AM | message detail

From: GrapefruitKing | #338
yeah... I'm not sure why so many people thought Vice City was strong enough to get a doubling here


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3466
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3488

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DFF
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/9/2010 9:04:05 AM | message detail

From: GrapefruitKing | #339
yeah... I'm not sure why so many people thought Vice City was strong enough to get a doubling here


Because Morrowind got a doubling and MGS2 got a tripling last year. SH2 is really weaksauce.
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Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world!
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/9/2010 9:04:20 AM | message detail
yeah... I'm not sure why so many people thought Vice City was strong enough to get a doubling here

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3466

We assumed Vice City was stronger than Morrowind.
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Regaro_Ukiera | Posted 11/9/2010 9:04:35 AM | message detail
Welp this match looks just about over
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My Heart is Empty. It is empty because there is nothing.
GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/9/2010 9:04:37 AM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #342
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3466
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3488


I know, I know, I saw those polls too, but something didn't feel right. SH2 just couldn't be that weak
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Oracle contest - 37th
Today's pick: Hawaiian Shirt - 64.33% Status:
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/9/2010 9:04:52 AM | message detail
In other news, GTA sucks Go Golden Sun!

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DFF
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/9/2010 9:05:24 AM | message detail
Does that answer your question, fruitman? I mean, IS IT SUFFICIENT.

I guess 4ways =/= 1v1, though.
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Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world!
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/9/2010 9:06:07 AM | message detail
I like how Vice City still finds a way to make a joke of itself even when its got a set path.

Go for 40%, SH2!
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Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/9/2010 9:06:09 AM | message detail
From 46.5% on Melee, to this.

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I predict and analyse the Game of the Decade contest here:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56817040