GameFAQs Contests

"Arbitrary percentage"? I lowballed it as much as possible with the 5%, if you think less than 5% voted for "not-Zelda" that's fair enough but assuming that at least 1 in 10 people vote mindlessly (which seems pretty likely to me!) and that about half of them are Nintendo fanboys (leaving half that aren't), 5% seems like a pretty good minimum. If you don't want to believe that any of the voters anti-vote games/series/characters ever that's your call, but it definitely happens. I of course don't know the numbers as you say, but the entire point of this is that it's a guessing game, and I'm trying to explain why the polls you linked don't just mean "BG2 will win".

Also, my conclusion: So yeah, BG2 has a good chance, but it's wrong to call it the favourite in my opinion.
Your conclusion: it's not hard to see Baldur's Gate having a decent shot to win the match.

Seems like we're of one mind ;).
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James - Board 8's Resident Warm And Safe, Slipper-Wearing User
& The Cream of Porcupine Tree Fanboyism

I expect not-Zelda was worth far less than 5% in 2004. Zelda 1 actually broke 95% on Adventure, so Adventure's 4.6% or something is the absolute max for not-Zelda in that year. More realistically, I don't see it higher than 1-2% in 2004. Now, it may well be above 5%, but Link's 6-time champion now while Cloud was defending champ then.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.

Wow, well I'll be. I need to brush up on my contest history, clearly!

Fair enough, disregard that. I still see it being a good 2-3% at least though. If anything that says it'd be at 4% probably, since I find it hard to believe people would vote for this "Adventure" game on its own merits, given that noone has heard of it!
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James - Board 8's Resident Warm And Safe, Slipper-Wearing User
& The Cream of Porcupine Tree Fanboyism

Even if we go by x-stats (lol yeah), that means that BG2 only needs to make up a 7% deficit between the fall of Skies, and the difference in power over Fallout 2.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2794

poll from 2007... there's a lot of SFF going on, but since BG and Fallout come in third and fourth place, and this poll was taken a year before Fallout 3 came out, it seems somewhat relevant to the discussion... assuming we filter the SFF properly, Fallout should still only be worth about 36% on Baldur's Gate.

and if I've done my math right (and assuming I'm correct), that should put BG2 around 20% on OOT in 2004 >.>

Oh right, night match chart:

Time | Persona 3 | Civ IV | Votes
0:05 | 50.73% | 49.27% | 958
1:00 | 52.32% | 47.68% | 6151
2:00 | 55.68% | 44.32% | 3565
3:00 | 54.13% | 45.87% | 2592
4:00 | 55.12% | 44.88% | 1983
5:00 | 56.95% | 43.05% | 1547
6:00 | 55.31% | 44.69% | 1694
7:00 | 50.92% | 49.08% | 2113
8:00 | 50.44% | 49.56% | 2516
9:00 | 48.88% | 51.12% | 2848
10:00 | 51.38% | 48.62% | 2970
11:00 | 49.81% | 50.19% | 2967
12:00 | 50.11% | 49.89% | 2648

Civilization does much better with the morning vote, making me wonder if this result would've been flipped if this had been a day match instead. Seems like it would be closer, at least, and it was already pretty close!
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Support Squirtle (Pokemon R/B/Y) for Character Battle IX!
http://img832.imageshack.us/img832/8463/banner2squirtle.jpg

Even if we go by x-stats (lol yeah), that means that BG2 only needs to make up a 7% deficit between the fall of Skies, and the difference in power over Fallout 2.

and the fall of itself

it's not like BG is somehow immune to getting less popular than it hypothetically was in 2004
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For your health.
At least Kupo has class and doesn't MESSAGE the people -Dr Pizza

and the fall of itself

it's not like BG is somehow immune to getting less popular than it hypothetically was in 2004

As I said, BG2 hasn't fallen off as much as Skies has. Every "must play WRPG list" in existence still lists BG2 without hesitation. Also, feel free to look at the rest of my posts.

As I said, BG2 hasn't fallen off as much as Skies has. Every "must play WRPG list" in existence still lists BG2 without hesitation. Also, feel free to look at the rest of my posts.

and that kind of thing doesn't necessarily translate to GameFAQs votes. In most cases, as games get older, they become less popular. That applies at the highest echelons of GameFAQs popularity (Chrono Trigger) and down at the low rungs where BG2 lives as well.

Skies of Arcadia is going to win that match. It's happening. Look forward to it.
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For your health.
At least Kupo has class and doesn't MESSAGE the people -Dr Pizza

and that kind of thing doesn't necessarily translate to GameFAQs votes. In most cases, as games get older, they become less popular. That applies at the highest echelons of GameFAQs popularity (Chrono Trigger) and down at the low rungs where BG2 lives as well.

Skies of Arcadia is going to win that match. It's happening. Look forward to it.

I have no problem with picking the game that has a better chances of winning for my battle picks. I'm not the sort of person who gets tied up in personal preferences and blinded to the better choice because of it.

However, you have shown me no compelling arguments to believe that SoA is going to win.

From: Greyfeld | #211
However, you have shown me no compelling arguments to believe that SoA is going to win.

Probably because there are none. This is a pillow fight between two weak games.
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Support Otacon (Metal Gear Solid) for Character Battle IX!
http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/1950/banner4otacon.jpg

By the way, despite it having a very Kingdom Hearts-like design and appeal, TWEWY might have stronger night trends if we take its past few poll performances as any indication.
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Yoblazer: http://8board.webs.com/ariel.jpg
Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world!

Probably because there are none. This is a pillow fight between two weak games.

Good, I'm glad I'm not just crazy. I thought I was missing something important besides "lol PC games."

I was trying to find information on night trends for both games, but coming up empty-handed.

here's the argument, be compelled

that match we had like 12 hours ago? Persona 3/Civ IV. This match we're discussing is the same thing. It's a console JRPG vs. a PC exclusive with the JRPG as the top option and the top seed giving it the apathy votes. Both are weak games here, but Skies is the type of game that appeals more to this site, and it's the one with the advantages in the poll. Power assumptions based on extrapolating some six year-old polls be damned, this match is going to play out in the exact same way.
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For your health.
At least Kupo has class and doesn't MESSAGE the people -Dr Pizza

that match we had like 12 hours ago? Persona 3/Civ IV. This match we're discussing is the same thing. It's a console JRPG vs. a PC exclusive with the JRPG as the top option and the top seed giving it the apathy votes. Both are weak games here, but Skies is the type of game that appeals more to this site, and it's the one with the advantages in the poll. Power assumptions based on extrapolating some six year-old polls be damned, this match is going to play out in the exact same way.

Big difference here is that its two RPGs. A strategy game was never gonna be that popular on Gamefaqs, but RPGs are. Thats why I'd take Baldurs Gate to beat Civ 4 here... Strategy games don't need faqs, really. A game like Baldurs Gate is the definition of a game requiring FAQs.
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http://cache.gawkerassets.com/assets/images/9/2010/11/500x_vegasdude.jpg

Also on a slightly different note... anyone else amused here at Phoenix Wright winning an ASV?
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http://cache.gawkerassets.com/assets/images/9/2010/11/500x_vegasdude.jpg

that match we had like 12 hours ago? Persona 3/Civ IV. This match we're discussing is the same thing. It's a console JRPG vs. a PC exclusive

That was a console JRPG on the PS2 (which also had a re-release, and a PSP port), against a turn-based strategy PC game. This match is a Dreamcast/Gamecube JRPG against a PC RPG. Also, Skies would lose to Persona 3, while BG2 might actually win over Civ. This is not a clearcut comparison.

with the JRPG as the top option and the top seed giving it the apathy votes.

Seeding is not listed on the poll, and there has been no proven evidence that the "top option" gets more apathy votes. I don't even understand this "top option" nonsense, because the poll is set up where the games are side-by-side, not top-bottom.

Both are weak games here, but Skies is the type of game that appeals more to this site, and it's the one with the advantages in the poll.

Basically, you're boiling it down to "lol PC games," which would be a valid argument if it weren't for the weak voting power of both of these games.

Power assumptions based on extrapolating some six year-old polls be damned, this match is going to play out in the exact same way.

I agree, the polls are old and it's hard to determine any power from them. However, neither game has had any reason to increase in power since those polls, except for possibly site shifts. Console games, by and large, have the upper hand. But in a match this close, I'm not betting my battle points on "lol PC games."

From: PartOfYourWorld | #213
By the way, despite it having a very Kingdom Hearts-like design and appeal, TWEWY might have stronger night trends if we take its past few poll performances as any indication.

It's possible, but Neku and Sho had pretty good day votes, too. They're pretty well-balanced, trend-wise.

Let's see...

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3350&region=EUR

Heh, Europe loves Layton.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3360&region=EUR

TWEWY still gets 2nd, but does a little worse, percentage-wise.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3253&region=EUR

A little better than the overall result, but not much.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3755&region=EUR

A little worse.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3256&region=EUR

A little better for Frank West here compared to overall.

There doesn't seem to be really any decisive Euro-advantage here for either side, who knows.
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"Stay with me until the end. Please."
"Not until the end. Always."

I just don't feel it.

Baldur's Gate 2? Not a chance an obscure PC RPG makes it compared to an obscure console JRPG.

Even if it's close, it's a set in stone 45-55.

Big difference here is that its two RPGs. A strategy game was never gonna be that popular on Gamefaqs, but RPGs are. Thats why I'd take Baldurs Gate to beat Civ 4 here... Strategy games don't need faqs, really. A game like Baldurs Gate is the definition of a game requiring FAQs.

Some RPGs are. I don't buy that those old isometric PC RPGs are. I guess we haven't seen much of them... just Diablo II and Fallout II, but I would expect BG to fall more toward the latter... way more. And the game is elderly at this point and belongs to a dead series, whereas Civ 4 has the benefit of Civ V coming out and getting those people to vote for Civ IV in a match of "well, that game is close to being this game I like".

I dunno, I just have absolutely no faith in BGII and nothing anyone has shown gives me any faith in it.


Seeding is not listed on the poll, and there has been no proven evidence that the "top option" gets more apathy votes. I don't even understand this "top option" nonsense, because the poll is set up where the games are side-by-side, not top-bottom.

Seeding doesn't have to be listed in the poll. It's significant in terms of people making brackets, and people then bracket-voting. The poll is set up where the pictures are side-by-side, but the poll clicky things are top-bottom. So people just click the first one because they don't care... I guess that's the logic. It seems to work.


Basically, you're boiling it down to "lol PC games," which would be a valid argument if it weren't for the weak voting power of both of these games.

lol PC games is always a valid argument, because... lol PC games.

I agree, the polls are old and it's hard to determine any power from them. However, neither game has had any reason to increase in power since those polls, except for possibly site shifts.

And we really have no valid indication of BGII's power... ever. It's just a guess based off another game's performance based off a six-way favorite series poll from six years ago. That strikes me as less convincing than the simple "lol pc games".


I really think this is one of those simple ones that you're just overthinking, but whatever.
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For your health.
At least Kupo has class and doesn't MESSAGE the people -Dr Pizza

Surely less people played Skies than Persona 3, it being on the Dreamcast and all. (There's the GC port, but it's super rare). I can see BG2 being comparable to Deus Ex as an older but still well loved PC game.
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See You Space Cowboy...

Surely less people played Skies than Persona 3, it being on the Dreamcast and all. (There's the GC port, but it's super rare). I can see BG2 being comparable to Deus Ex as an older but still well loved PC game.

Is the GC port really rare? I didn't know that.
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For your health.
At least Kupo has class and doesn't MESSAGE the people -Dr Pizza

The GC port is quite rare now. It's ridiculously expensive. Glad I bought it before that happened!
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http://i43.tinypic.com/dgwh0.gif
http://www.majhost.com/gallery/atukam/OHWD/snownd.gif

I feel super cool for owning it now.
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For your health.
At least Kupo has class and doesn't MESSAGE the people -Dr Pizza

I'm pretty sure Legends sold more than the original. I think.

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DFF

I loaned SoAL to a friend and he never gave it back...
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http://card.mygamercard.net/Mach+Tornado.png

So is the general consensus now TWEWY > Dead Rising?

Because that would suck.
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Mega is all like 'pew pew mother****ers' and X us all like 'pew pew but only if I have to' -ChidoriNoJutsu
http://i36.tinypic.com/241lfg2.png

That would be awesome
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

After doing a google search for sales, all I can come up with is DC version of Skies of Arcadia sold 110k, and GC version sold 70k.. this was from 2004 though, so GC version might have gone up a tiny bit since then. Still, thats super niche level sales.
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http://cache.gawkerassets.com/assets/images/9/2010/11/500x_vegasdude.jpg

While Skies got in, I just don't see GameFAQs caring for/remembering it at all. BG could at least have that advantage.
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You may take Mr. Rogers down, but I will be back and become more powerful than you ever imagine
"tgs is taking it alone"

While Skies got in, I just don't see GameFAQs caring for/remembering it at all

people nominate Vyse every year. Someone is caring for/remembering it for whatever reason.
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For your health.
At least Kupo has class and doesn't MESSAGE the people -Dr Pizza

The GC port is quite rare now. It's ridiculously expensive. Glad I bought it before that happened!

How expensive are we talkin' here.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?

people nominate Vyse every year. Someone is caring for/remembering it for whatever reason.

lol for the same reason Laharl gets in every year?

Which reminds me, we need to nominate Boo for the next character battle!!

From: The Mana Sword | #233
The GC port is quite rare now. It's ridiculously expensive. Glad I bought it before that happened!

How expensive are we talkin' here.

Looking at Amazon...$85. Not quite Suikoden II expensive or anything, but...!
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http://i.imgur.com/CbfFb.jpg

Wow, FFIX lost the ASV to Phoenix Wright of all things. I don't know if KotOR can win, but at least it'll end up looking better than normal with a day vote.
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Dr Football and Snake have won this round, but Sephiroth will rise again!

How expensive are we talkin' here.

http://shop.ebay.com/?_from=R40&_trksid=p5197.m570.l1313&_nkw=skies+of+arcadia+legends&_sacat=See-All-Categories
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http://cache.gawkerassets.com/assets/images/9/2010/11/500x_vegasdude.jpg

So we lost the last perfect...That is what happens when you chose the better game to win but it loses...
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~

Oh, that's for a new copy. That's nowhere even close to Suikoden II! Or a lot of other things!
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?

Here's my ASV Tier List. Feel free to add to it, or to make your own.

Top Tier

Smash
Kingdom Hearts
Halo

High Tier

Pokemon
Kirby
Legend of Zelda
Call of Duty

Upper Tier

Super Mario Bros.
Metroid
Sonic

Lower Tier

Resident Evil
Street Fighter
Grand Theft Auto
Devil May Cry
Final Fantasy (10 and later)

Bottom Tier

Chrono Trigger
Final Fantasy (9 and earlier)
Phoenix Wright
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.

From: red sox 777 | #241
Top Tier

Smash
Kingdom Hearts
Halo

Halo should be above KH at the very least. While not overwhelmingly, Halo 2 did win the ASV over KH2. KH2 peaked at 64.4% right before the ASV and ending the match at 63.81%.
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Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/ml36gl_th.gif
Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world!

Looking at this early ASV, I'm not sure I'd put FFIX and lower above PW.
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http://img.imgcake.com/leonpngpe.png
http://img.imgcake.com/squalloweenpngem.png

Oh, the entrants weren't ordered within the tiers. Although that's interesting- I vaguely remember KH outdoing Halo in the ASV in the 2009 games contest.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.

I wouldn't be surprised if something like CoD took the ASV from Smash, KH, and Pokemon. I can't help but imagine it starting in such a hole that it'd have nowhere to go but up once the kiddies got home. Damn game rose almost 3% against PoP, and MW2/Dissidia had like a 10% hour-on-hour shift.
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Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/5nw45i.jpg
Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world!

From: PartOfYourWorld | #245
I wouldn't be surprised if something like CoD took the ASV from Smash, KH, and Pokemon.

Except CoD4 had a match with Brawl last year (two, in fact).

That...didn't happen.
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"Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?"
"I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!"

Let's see it 1v1 in a 12-hour match.

Then - THEN - we will talk.
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Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/5nw45i.jpg
Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world!

But it wasn't even close enough in 4-ways for it to be debatable!

And it'd probably lose the ASV to Brawl because of LOL Board 8 anti-votes Brawl
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"

The ASV is substantially different in 12 hours than 24 hours. Smash and KH both share bad DSVs, average morning votes, and bad (unbelievably bad in Smash's case) deep night votes.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.

CoD4 actually picked up a slight bit of percentage on Brawl from 3pm to the end of the match.
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Dr Football and Snake have won this round, but Sephiroth will rise again!