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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 941

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DpObliVion | Posted 11/9/2010 12:29:52 PM | message detail
Dead Rising in my bracket. Was starting to lean towards TWEWY in battle, but now I think I'm leaning towards banking 19,000, with 0 banked to this point. I still feel like I should press my luck and go forward, but there are some other worrisome matches in the near future, my luck is bound to run out at some point....

Who wins this fourpack anyway? Obviously we'll have a much better idea by the end of tomorrow, but with the trends we've noticed so far....
http://thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=86
Is Persona 4 still the slight favorite? I had thought I had Dead Rising and was doomed until I checked my bracket yesterday and noticed I had P4. But I know I was greatly overestimating Persona in this contest, although that worked in my favor in P3 vs Civ4.

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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/9/2010 12:30:34 PM | message detail
So we're officially leaning SoA > BG2 for some reason, huh?
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NoDicePwn | Posted 11/9/2010 12:31:20 PM | message detail
So we're officially leaning SoA > BG2 for some reason, huh?

I assume its probably out of favortism since more people here have played Skies than Baldurs Gate 2. That seems to be how it goes when you have those toss up matches.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/9/2010 12:32:46 PM | message detail

From: NoDicePwn | #453
So we're officially leaning SoA > BG2 for some reason, huh?

I assume its probably out of favortism since more people here have played Skies than Baldurs Gate 2. That seems to be how it goes when you have those toss up matches.


If you're going TWEWY there's no reason to not go with SoA.
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voltch | Posted 11/9/2010 12:33:15 PM | message detail
I only started reconsidering when i realised how awful those Dreamcast games were doing.
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Big Bob | Posted 11/9/2010 12:33:27 PM | message detail
The problem is that the people on the Battle leaderboards are so far ahead that you have no choice but to play catch-up, which means taking risks on a lot of uneven matches. I lucked out on Borderlands and Persona, but can I really trust TWEWY, Skies, and Chrono Cross to help me out?
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MegatokyoEd | Posted 11/9/2010 12:33:40 PM | message detail
TWEWY could be stronger than SoA and BG2 could definitely be stronger than DR.
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NoDicePwn | Posted 11/9/2010 12:34:38 PM | message detail
I don't see how tonights match relates in any way to SoA/BG2, unless you're somehow trying to make a comparison between a Capcom action game with zombies and servbots to a PC 2d RPG.
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voltch | Posted 11/9/2010 12:35:41 PM | message detail
ya, you can trust Chrono Cross for sure.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/9/2010 12:35:47 PM | message detail
I'm more-so saying that SoA is a well liked jRPG.

This seems like a Persona/Civ style thing to me. I'm not too worried about SoA/BG2.
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Ultimaphazon | Posted 11/9/2010 12:35:53 PM | message detail
I'm surprised SoA / BG2 is even debatted. In a match between fodder jrpg and fodder wrpg, I'll always side with the jrpg.
Add console vs PC to the mix, and it seems obvious to me.
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creativename | Posted 11/9/2010 12:37:06 PM | message detail

From: -LusterSoldier- | #2207
Now for Skies of Arcadia, that's a match which kind of scares me a bit more because I can't seem to find a single thing that could convince me that it will definitely beat Baldur's Gate 2.


Well it shouldn't be possible to convince you it will "definitely" win because that match is very unpredictable :)

SoA vs. BG2 is essentially "LOL Dreamcast game!!" vs. "LOL old PC game!!"

Of course SoA:Legends was also on the Gamecube, but that's even more "LOL" than the Dreamcast thing.

I myself lean towards SoA. I've seen a small fanbase for that game on this site - but never seen anything for BG2. I'm probably one of the few that's actually played both (I play SoA:L), and I like both, not really sure who I'll vote for - probably SoA. Both deserve to win a match based on game quality. Neither deserves to be anywhere close to winning a match based on contest strength. They are both fodder.
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NoDicePwn | Posted 11/9/2010 12:38:11 PM | message detail
I'm surprised SoA / BG2 is even debatted. In a match between fodder jrpg and fodder wrpg, I'll always side with the jrpg.

Because its probably the weakest jrpg in the field (especially after seeing Mother 3 not completely flop) against a Bioware game when wrpgs have been looking impressive so far this contest. The last time we saw a Skies of Arcadia related thing in a poll, Vyse was struggling to beat Jack frost in the vote ins. Skies of Arcadia will be absolutely bottom of the barrel fodder, and I can't help but think Baldurs Gate 2 should be stronger than that. Baldurs Gate 2 is one of the first games that basically required a FAQ to play, so I can see a lot of the older users on this site being fans of it.
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DpObliVion | Posted 11/9/2010 12:38:57 PM | message detail
Yeah, I wasn't concerned with SoA at all until I started checking in here and seeing some concern. I'm finding it hard to see BG winning though.

I'm still concerned about FF12 vs Crisis Core, though that may have been settled here by now in FF12's favor. I have Crisis Core in my bracket though and still think it could have a chance. If I'm feeling comfortable enough with FF12 and SoA though, maybe I should risk the TWEWY pick this match, although that would require two picks in a span of five matches that go against my gut/bracket.

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creativename | Posted 11/9/2010 12:43:23 PM | message detail
I have Dead Rising in my bracket and have had it in my battle and Oracle. People are convincing me to side with TWEWY though. Since I know absolutely nothing about either game and don't care about either game, I only have the opinions of others to rely on, and I guess TWEWY is the favorite now?

I really have no clue here though. For P3 vs. Civ by match time I was definitely leaning P3, here I'm just shrugging my shoulders in confusion.
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voltch | Posted 11/9/2010 12:44:59 PM | message detail
How did TWEWY suddenly become the favourite?
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695924 | Posted 11/9/2010 12:47:37 PM | message detail
Does TWEWY even have the SE name recognition to give it a boost?
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/9/2010 12:48:40 PM | message detail

From: voltch | #466
How did TWEWY suddenly become the favourite?


I blame KP. When TWEWY loses, you know who to hurt.
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azuarc | Posted 11/9/2010 12:49:01 PM | message detail
Not being a long-time regular, I've never even *heard* of Skies of Arcadia. Then again, apparently there's a lot of games in the mix I haven't heard of. It's what I get for spending too much time on single games. (Curse you, MMOs!) Nonetheless, I know the Baldur's Gate brand name even if I haven't played it, and I know many people who have loved it and have told me to try it. SoA is...a Dreamcast game? How many people really owned one of those? (It was a good system, but it's hard to have any kind of mainstream success when you aren't on a mainstream system.)

Then again, I fought rather hard for Civ, which flamed out to Persona. Civ has a stronger fanbase (perhaps not here) than BG2, but BG2 is from a respected developer and is at least RPG vs RPG. If you're going to be any genre, RPG is the one to be, especially to match off against another RPG. Nothing beats those rocket-propelled grenades...I'd say BG2 has a strong chance, but I'm not going to champion it.
Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/9/2010 12:49:09 PM | message detail
The one thing I will say in DR's favour over Civ IV's is that, while I thought P3 probably had a pic advantage in its match, TWEWY... really doesn't.

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TheCodeisBosco | Posted 11/9/2010 12:52:25 PM | message detail
Uh... is it just me, or is GTA3 the strongest game in the series now? >_> How the heck did that happen?!?

The one thing I will say in DR's favour over Civ IV's is that, while I thought P3 probably had a pic advantage in its match, TWEWY... really doesn't.

I can agree with this. Dead Rising's boxart is bloody awesome.

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Ultimaphazon | Posted 11/9/2010 12:57:09 PM | message detail
Honestly, I'm now favoring TWEWY because of what I call the leaderboard curse. It seems every time I get close to the leaderboard, I get the next debated match wrong. It's happened many times in past contests, and it's already happened on Vesperia / Borderlands in this contest.
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voltch | Posted 11/9/2010 12:58:43 PM | message detail
Bracket says TWEWY, though DR has got to be the fav, especially after DR2.
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NoDicePwn | Posted 11/9/2010 12:59:07 PM | message detail
http://www.gamespot.com/greatest-video-game-villain/vote/battle-hub/index.html?battle_id=27

At least on Gamespot, Baldurs Gate 2 is known. Dunno if that'll translate in any way to here though. (I would take Shenmue to easily beat Skies here though)
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Advokaiser | Posted 11/9/2010 1:01:15 PM | message detail
For people arguing about SoA/BG2, it's ridiculous. You already saw how P3/Civ4 ended up.
For people arguing about TWEWY/DR, you already saw how handhelds have been performing so far.

While making my bracket I was just as insecure as everyone else about these matches, but now I'm certainly not. Sure, both matches may end up being a little close, there has been a fair amount of obvious patterns for people to notice them by now.

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DpObliVion | Posted 11/9/2010 1:01:28 PM | message detail
TWEWY/DR is looking more and more like a coinflip....

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NoDicePwn | Posted 11/9/2010 1:02:26 PM | message detail
For people arguing about SoA/BG2, it's ridiculous. You already saw how P3/Civ4 ended up.

Persona 3 > Skies of Arcadia
RPG > Strategy Game

So yeah.. I don't see how that match matters one bit for SoA/BG2
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voltch | Posted 11/9/2010 1:03:50 PM | message detail
yeah, handhelds been doing awful, knocked out GTA, the weak one!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/9/2010 1:06:53 PM | message detail
I think among most of the board, Dead Rising is still the favorite. It's mostly the stats people who are starting to waver toward TWEWY at the last minute, from what I've been seeing.
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voltch | Posted 11/9/2010 1:07:50 PM | message detail
STAAAAAAAAAATS!
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voltch | Posted 11/9/2010 1:08:18 PM | message detail
never noticed before how StatS was a palindrome.
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Advokaiser | Posted 11/9/2010 1:08:21 PM | message detail
Persona 3 > Skies of Arcadia
RPG > Strategy Game

So yeah.. I don't see how that match matters one bit for SoA/BG2



Obviously P3 > SoA. I'm just saying Console RPG >>>>> PC-only game. That's why I compared those two matches.

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ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/9/2010 1:10:07 PM | message detail
I just banked.

Long streak be damned, I don't want to **** around and lose 20k points.

No more banking after dis, though.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/9/2010 1:10:27 PM | message detail
Also, while making comparisons to similar matches may be a little helpful, but it's far from conclusive. I don't think P3/Civ IV really tells us a whole lot about this match or SoA/DR. I think all three of these cult RPGs having a night match against games that are potentially day-oriented is the biggest advantage they have.
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Advokaiser | Posted 11/9/2010 1:18:09 PM | message detail
Also, while making comparisons to similar matches may be a little helpful, but it's far from conclusive. I don't think P3/Civ IV really tells us a whole lot about this match or SoA/DR. I think all three of these cult RPGs having a night match against games that are potentially day-oriented is the biggest advantage they have.

Oh... night-match... that's bad news for TWEWY... I don't know if I'll change my pick now, but it's a possibility.

And yeah, it's far from conclusive, but there are some strong-influence factors in that have been showing off through the competition.

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Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/9/2010 1:19:39 PM | message detail
I'm second guessing myself again... Dead Rising 2 nearly doubled Civilization V a couple of months ago - this site cares about it more than Civ. If SMT: P3 > TWEWY, then surely DR > TWEWY. And my gut reaction is that TWEWY couldn't beat P3. Ugh.

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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/9/2010 1:19:52 PM | message detail
I know how to settle coinflip matches guys. Heads DR, Tails TWEWY

*flips coin IRL*

TWEWY it is then

GET AT ME
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creativename | Posted 11/9/2010 1:20:38 PM | message detail
After SoA vs. BG2, what's the next debated match? Looks like there's no debated matches for a while after that. (I don't consider the WoW vs. Animal Crossing match debated at all)

NSMBWii vs. MvC2 is sort of debated I guess, but it has a clear favorite. Same with FF12 vs. CC, Chrono Cross vs. DQ8, and Paper Mario vs. Gears. UC2 is also still the fave over SF4 I think.

It seems like after SoA vs. BG2, the next heavily debated match isn't until...Golden Sun vs. GTA? Am I missing something? That's a very long streak of matches with clear favorites then.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/9/2010 1:22:03 PM | message detail

From: creativename | #488
Chrono Cross vs. DQ8


Clear favorites, huh...

also, who's the clear favorite for Halo 3/Halo 1
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/9/2010 1:22:03 PM | message detail

From: creativename | #488
It seems like after SoA vs. BG2, the next heavily debated match isn't until...Golden Sun vs. GTA? Am I missing something? That's a very long streak of matches with clear favorites then.


Yep, that's the next really debated match to me. I'm kinda worried about TTYD/Gears, but I feel like I'll feel better about one or the other after Portal/Gears 2 and Paper Mario/KD.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/9/2010 1:22:45 PM | message detail

From: TheKoolAidShoto | #489
Clear favorites, huh...

also, who's the clear favorite for Halo 3/Halo 1


CC and Halo 1 are the clear favorites.

Keep in mind that "clear favorite" =/= "obvious winner"
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Advokaiser | Posted 11/9/2010 1:23:46 PM | message detail
CC and Halo 1 are the clear favorites.

What.

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AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 11/9/2010 1:24:57 PM | message detail

From: Advokaiser | #492
CC and Halo 1 are the clear favorites.

What.


I will bet you a testicle that Halo 1 beats Halo 3.
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tgs2 | Posted 11/9/2010 1:25:09 PM | message detail

From: Advokaiser | #492
CC and Halo 1 are the clear favorites.

What.


Least likely to get anti-voted + people think of it as the best in the series.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/9/2010 1:26:47 PM | message detail

From: Advokaiser | #492
CC and Halo 1 are the clear favorites.

What.


1 > 3
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creativename | Posted 11/9/2010 1:27:44 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #2359
I think among most of the board, Dead Rising is still the favorite. It's mostly the stats people who are starting to waver toward TWEWY at the last minute, from what I've been seeing.


Since I'd like to just ride the favorite, I was going to switch to TWEWY, but you've just made me stick with DR :) Like the other guy I might as well flip a coin, there's no reasoning for this match that I feel is worth much.

From: TheKoolAidShoto | #2409
Clear favorites, huh...

also, who's the clear favorite for Halo 3/Halo 1


Chrono Cross is the clear favorite.

And I don't know how anyone could pick Halo 3 over Halo 1. That's not debated at all. Halo 3 winning would be a shocker.
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Greyfeld | Posted 11/9/2010 1:27:58 PM | message detail
Obviously P3 > SoA. I'm just saying Console RPG >>>>> PC-only game. That's why I compared those two matches.

Generally, sure. But P3 is a hell of a lot more popular than SoA, and it still only won with 52.35% over a non-RPG game. Bumping the console game down a tier, and changing the PC game to an RPG may be enough to make that 4.71% swing.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/9/2010 1:29:10 PM | message detail
Dead Rising > Persona 4
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/9/2010 1:29:22 PM | message detail
Play EarthBound.
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Ultimaphazon | Posted 11/9/2010 1:29:29 PM | message detail
Play Braid
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