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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 941

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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/8/2010 5:14:51 AM | message detail
3-5 > 3-4 > 3-2 > 3-1 > 3-3

X > VIII > XIII > VII > T > IX > VI > XII > X-2 > IV > V

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Solid Snake, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.
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"Stay with me until the end. Please."
"Not until the end. Always."
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/8/2010 5:21:44 AM | message detail
BLUBBER BUTT
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I've seen things you people wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain.
__Smurf__ | Posted 11/8/2010 5:21:52 AM | message detail
I must say its always confused me how on a site where the likes of Chrono Trigger can run rampant things like Persona, Valkyria Chronicles, Demon's Souls, TWEWY etc are dismissed as cult rpgs with little chance against more mainstream yet less popular games.
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Smurf , The cream of Sonic fanboyism.
pjbasis | Posted 11/8/2010 5:22:20 AM | message detail
Way too top heavy.
MarquessLaus | Posted 11/8/2010 9:00:27 AM | message detail
Final Fantasy IX 63.33%

19
Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney Trials and Tribulations 36.67%

11
TOTAL VOTES 30
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When you've got a pretty-boy monkey on your back constantly calling you a puppet, you hardly want to seem like you're happy to be used. - DSakaCharanJ
GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/8/2010 9:00:44 AM | message detail
time for FFIX to shine
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Oracle contest - 34th
Today's pick: Final Fantasy IX - 73.3% Status:
vcharon | Posted 11/8/2010 9:01:40 AM | message detail
FFIX finally gets to pound something.
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:>
GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/8/2010 9:01:52 AM | message detail
42.85% picked Persona
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Oracle contest - 34th
Today's pick: Final Fantasy IX - 73.3% Status:
Eeeevil Overlord | Posted 11/8/2010 9:02:07 AM | message detail
T&T can comeback yet! ...Right?
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James - Board 8's Resident Warm And Safe, Slipper-Wearing User
& The Cream of Porcupine Tree Fanboyism
abdou | Posted 11/8/2010 9:02:14 AM | message detail
No more perfect brackets


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...
pjbasis | Posted 11/8/2010 9:02:27 AM | message detail
It's really not that much of a pounding.
Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/8/2010 9:03:06 AM | message detail
It appears former battle leader RossMan (or something) gambled on Civ IV.

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I predict and analyse the Game of the Decade contest here:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56817040
Ultimaphazon | Posted 11/8/2010 9:03:25 AM | message detail
I ws expecting Persona to be an upset for most bracketmakers. Not surprised to see it failing to get 50%. If it weren't for seeding, I guess the prediction percentage would be quite a bit lower too.
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A pro isn't someone who sacrifices himself for his job. That's just a fool. - Reno, FFVII
http://i25.tinypic.com/2cp5chf.jpg
vcharon | Posted 11/8/2010 9:03:43 AM | message detail
It's only going to get worse though. PW will have a better first hour vote than any other hour, probably.
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:>
MarquessLaus | Posted 11/8/2010 9:05:01 AM | message detail
GTA:VC is an easy win over Silent Hill 2, right?
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When you've got a pretty-boy monkey on your back constantly calling you a puppet, you hardly want to seem like you're happy to be used. - DSakaCharanJ
Greyfeld | Posted 11/8/2010 9:05:31 AM | message detail
I highly doubt NSMBWii > SMS, but I'm pretty sure Halo 3 >>>>>>>>>>>>> MvC2.

I don't know about that. NSMBW was pretty much critically acclaimed everywhere. Of course, we all know how little that means to this site's popularity chain. Though there's always the chance that SMS being an older game increased its nostalgia factor considerably to give it the edge.

That said, I agree that Halo 3 would stomp on MvC2 with at least 60%.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2790

I'd love to take that poll and run with it, but considering it's from 2007, this means that SF4 wasn't around to influence yet. Which basically says "street fighter 2 beats you." Aside from this poll, there's really nothing else of consequence to go on. A couple "which game are you looking forward to" polls for MvC3, but those are more worthless than GOTY polls.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3904

This poll shows MvC3 just barely losing to Mario Galaxy 2. If we could take this poll at face value, that puts MvC2 to win over NSMBW easily. But that's not the case, which means we're right back at where we started.

And I think I'm leaning towards P4 > TWEWY > DR, but I wouldn't be surprised if DR wins TWEWY's place. That match would seem like a coinflip match, but I think it won't be that close. For games THAT different I think it will end up something like TWEWY 55/45 DR or vice-versa.

Yeah, I have no doubt P4 is going to win that 4-pack... my concern is about TWEWY/DR. I feel like RB2/DX all over again, where TWEWY is DX... but Dead Rising isn't a music game, which leaves me at "which game will be the least weak?" Course, choosing the RPG worked well for me in this P3/Civ4 match *Shrugs*
pjbasis | Posted 11/8/2010 9:05:42 AM | message detail
^yes don't bank.

Well I guess this is as expected.

FFIX doesn't impress.
vcharon | Posted 11/8/2010 9:05:44 AM | message detail
Silent Hill sucks in these contests. GTAVC is probably the most well liked of its franchise.
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:>
Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/8/2010 9:06:09 AM | message detail
Hey, PW actually looks OK(unles FFIX turns out to suck anyway, but even)
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Something something something
^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig
voltch | Posted 11/8/2010 9:07:22 AM | message detail
oooooh yes, come on FFIX!
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Nyoro~n
Ultimaphazon | Posted 11/8/2010 9:09:04 AM | message detail
I was actually expecting more from PW in the opening minutes. Would you all take Viewtiful Joe over Phoenix Wright?
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A pro isn't someone who sacrifices himself for his job. That's just a fool. - Reno, FFVII
http://i25.tinypic.com/2cp5chf.jpg
vcharon | Posted 11/8/2010 9:10:14 AM | message detail
Ouch.
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:>
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/8/2010 9:10:16 AM | message detail
Despite Civilization IV winning by 129 votes in Canada and by 30 in the US, Persona 3 only won by 118 votes in Mexico. So this means that Persona 3 was favored in Central America and the other countries of North America. Civilization IV gets a 159 vote lead in North America from the US and Canada, and Mexico closes the gap by 118 votes to cut the lead down to 41. The remaining votes from North America looked like this:

Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 3 66.83% 135
Civilization IV 33.17% 67
TOTAL VOTES: 202

That is mostly from Central American countries and countries besides the US, Canada, and Mexico.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!
Ultimaphazon | Posted 11/8/2010 9:11:19 AM | message detail
Ouch.

Pretty accurate description.
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A pro isn't someone who sacrifices himself for his job. That's just a fool. - Reno, FFVII
http://i25.tinypic.com/2cp5chf.jpg
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/8/2010 9:12:20 AM | message detail
Oh dear. IX might outperform X at this rate.
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Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/ml36gl_th.gif
Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world!
abdou | Posted 11/8/2010 9:12:25 AM | message detail
FFIX is impressing me more than FFX did.
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transience | Posted 11/8/2010 9:12:46 AM | message detail
reminder: FF9 got royally screwed in bracket placement
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xyzzy
vcharon | Posted 11/8/2010 9:12:55 AM | message detail
I would take Viewtiful Joe in a second over Phoenix Wright, by the way.
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:>
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/8/2010 9:13:27 AM | message detail

From: transience | #027
reminder: FF9 got royally screwed in bracket placement


Twice!
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Yoblazer: http://8board.webs.com/ariel.jpg
Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world!
AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 11/8/2010 9:13:47 AM | message detail
So Civ IV only won in civilized countries? Figures.
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Alec not at home
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/8/2010 9:14:12 AM | message detail
reminder: FF9 got royally screwed in bracket placement

How does a game get screwed by being given essentially a pretty easy ride to the division finals when its not even that strong to begin with? Just because it'll be beaten down by FFX doesn't mean it wasn't allowed to get further than other games its own strength.
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Epona > any Western character in CB9!
http://i.neoseeker.com/ca/fallout_new_vegas_conceptart_7XvFK.jpg
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/8/2010 9:16:11 AM | message detail
Because it was given its worst possible opponent and no truly compelling matches along the way, Albion. It could have been switched with something in RE4's division (say, Portal) for an overall bracket improvement. FFIX/RE4 and Portal/KotOR could have both been great.
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Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/ml36gl_th.gif
Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world!
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/8/2010 9:18:06 AM | message detail
Iuno, I see "screwed with bracket placement" being like having some unwinnable match in round 2, not being given a pretty good ride to an easy division finals appearance. Was Fallout 3 given bad bracket placement since it'll blowout everything till the semi finals then get blown out itself in the final four?
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Epona > any Western character in CB9!
http://i.neoseeker.com/ca/fallout_new_vegas_conceptart_7XvFK.jpg
Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/8/2010 9:18:20 AM | message detail
So when FFIX is through getting a better percentage in a day match than FFX in a night match, it's time to get on board the FFIX > FFX train!

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I predict and analyse the Game of the Decade contest here:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56817040
Greyfeld | Posted 11/8/2010 9:19:04 AM | message detail

How does a game get screwed by being given essentially a pretty easy ride to the division finals when its not even that strong to begin with? Just because it'll be beaten down by FFX doesn't mean it wasn't allowed to get further than other games its own strength.


I think they were talking about the last contest where it got stuck with a zelda game, then SFFed to hell by its older brother in the next match.

The thing about FF9 is that it's a solid mid-carder (Vivi showed this in the last character battle), but it's weak against most of the other popular square-enix games, because it doesn't have the same reception as they do.

To illustrate my point, FF9 sold about 5.5 million units world-wide, but it's still the worst-selling single player core game in the franchise (aside from FF13, which hasn't been out long enough to count, really).
Big Bob | Posted 11/8/2010 9:19:29 AM | message detail
Hey, KOTOR's gonna give it a run for its money!
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http://card.mygamercard.net/Mach+Tornado.png
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/8/2010 9:20:08 AM | message detail
Wow, it looks like Phoenix didn't have a bit of success with the early vote. Either his games don't get Board 8 excited at all or the fad is dying.
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg
Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world!
Greyfeld | Posted 11/8/2010 9:20:56 AM | message detail
excuse me, i just realized that my description wasn't specific enough.

Out of FF7-10, and FF12, FF9 has the worst sales numbers.
vcharon | Posted 11/8/2010 9:21:02 AM | message detail
Well, FFIX has jumped about 4% in percentage since the freeze. It's a noticeable board vote for PW, as far as that goes.
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:>
Biolizard28 | Posted 11/8/2010 9:21:33 AM | message detail
Vivi showed this in the last character battle

Nothing to do with FFIX, bro.
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I like how each new topic you make reveals such varied facets of your idiocy. - foolmo
Now this is entertainment!
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/8/2010 9:22:10 AM | message detail
To illustrate my point, FF9 sold about 5.5 million units world-wide, but it's still the worst-selling single player core game in the franchise (aside from FF13, which hasn't been out long enough to count, really).

Worst selling 3d, actually. Best selling 2D FF was FF6 at about 3.5 million, so it blows away all the 2d games.
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Epona > any Western character in CB9!
http://i.neoseeker.com/ca/fallout_new_vegas_conceptart_7XvFK.jpg
vcharon | Posted 11/8/2010 9:22:48 AM | message detail
Vivi's strength is more thanks to Final Fantasy as a series; he's an iconic mascot in a way. A recognizable figure.

Zidane would be a better indicator of FFIX's strength as far as character battles goes. I'd say he's probably low midcard.
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:>
TRE Public Account | Posted 11/8/2010 9:22:48 AM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
38------1------------0.00
37------12----------66.67
36------81----------46.91
35------355--------52.39
34------917--------52.02
33------1697------45.85
32------2703------47.54
31------3535------47.84
30------3755------43.99
29------3610------41.19
28------3417------40.24
27------2884------39.36
26------2304------37.89
25------1792------40.35
24------1352------41.72
23------943--------39.87
22------668--------45.06
21------424--------49.29
20------254--------47.24
19------153--------49.02
18------121--------45.45
17------78----------42.31
16------35----------42.86
15------28----------35.71
14------17----------23.53
13------10----------30.00
12------10----------20.00
11------9------------0.00
10------18----------5.56
9--------11----------27.27
8--------23----------13.04
7--------11----------18.18
6--------12----------33.33
5--------7------------57.14
4--------5------------60.00
3--------5------------0.00
2--------7------------0.00
1--------16----------0.00
0--------34----------0.00

He survived 37 rounds but 38 was just too much. The last perfect bracket goes down on this match. This match was expected to be tough to predict and it was. With exception to the -1s, all the tiers were just over 50 or worse. The -1s do surprisingly well with two thirds of them getting it right. That still drops them into the single digits in terms of -1 brackets remaining, though.

17 people fell out of the Top 50. Kyraeu, Simmedon, TBSMookfisher, herooftime9, severus513, BRye926, Alternative_1, airblade369, fount_of_evil, bh102483, Cardz2004, ravaggle, NeonOctopus, Zerochris5002, Zyrxil, KD100396 and Lazzy128 did not have Persona 3 beating Civ 4.

4 people got it wrong and survived. Former first place and the last perfect bracket Pluto_70, former second place sycamore32, former third place MetricTrout and chris60050 also did not have Persona 3 beating Civ 4.
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Dr_Football punted my bracket across the field.
Congrats to Dr_Football for winning the Character Battle 8 Guru Contest!
Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/8/2010 9:23:09 AM | message detail
I wouldn't say FFIX "isn't strong at all". It's probably a top 10-15 game in the contest.

However it'd still lose to every 1 seed and a few other games, so it's going as far as it was going to go. It didn't get screwed at all unless you're talking about stats, and that's debatable.
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Something something something
^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig
MegatokyoEd | Posted 11/8/2010 9:23:34 AM | message detail
FFIX should have been the 2 seed in Fallout 3's division.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
http://www.last.fm/user/crazydom
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/8/2010 9:26:14 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/8/2010 9:26:31 AM | message detail
FFIX should have been the 2 seed in Fallout 3's division.

I do agree with this though. Fallout 3/FFIX would have been a VERY interesting match to debate, it could go either way, and it could have been the big match Western Games needed to give them some respect.
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Epona > any Western character in CB9!
http://i.neoseeker.com/ca/fallout_new_vegas_conceptart_7XvFK.jpg
Greyfeld | Posted 11/8/2010 9:26:52 AM | message detail
yeah, I'm not saying FF9 is top tier, but I think it should definitely be recognized as mid-card. The FF name might carry it a little bit, but it's genuinely a fantastic game, even if it doesn't get the love VII and X do.
vcharon | Posted 11/8/2010 9:27:58 AM | message detail
I'm sure it's stronger than FFXII even if it did sell less copies, at least.
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 11/8/2010 9:29:32 AM | message detail
Phoenix Wright T&T vs Viewtiful Joe, lol
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Wylvane
ctesjbuvf is a horrible user.