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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 940

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vcharon | Posted 11/7/2010 9:47:48 PM | message detail
Persona 3 vs. No Mercy

Who you got
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JJH777 | Posted 11/7/2010 9:48:03 PM | message detail
Oh I know I'm not really expecting Civ to come back was just pointing out an example of a massive % change from the first hour to the end of the match for the Europe vote.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/7/2010 9:49:02 PM | message detail
I swear I thought creativename was quoting me there, and I went "wait, I didn't say any of that at all".

Damn you, Ulti.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/7/2010 9:49:43 PM | message detail
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XqPC08cPGJw&feature=related

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DFF
vcharon | Posted 11/7/2010 9:50:24 PM | message detail
Holy crap what the hell was that
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NoDicePwn | Posted 11/7/2010 9:50:41 PM | message detail
60% update? This is over. See ya all tomorrow
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Epona > any Western character in CB9!
http://i.neoseeker.com/ca/fallout_new_vegas_conceptart_7XvFK.jpg
Greyfeld | Posted 11/7/2010 9:50:51 PM | message detail
lol i don't know what that was, but I like it!!
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/7/2010 9:51:20 PM | message detail
Civ IV's votals fell off a cliff there.

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DFF
TheCodeisBosco | Posted 11/7/2010 9:51:47 PM | message detail
...okay, there's no freakin' way that was legit.

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CURRENT GOTY SCORE: 33
CIVILIZATION >:(
vcharon | Posted 11/7/2010 9:52:09 PM | message detail
Persona 3 to dance all over No Mercy's face!
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paulg235 | Posted 11/7/2010 9:52:20 PM | message detail
Over
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The Gamer In Me
"Oh boy, I always wanted to be a pedo." - Janus5000's response to sleeping with Misty for the night
Big Bob | Posted 11/7/2010 9:52:43 PM | message detail
Holy
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Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/7/2010 9:52:43 PM | message detail
That was all Civ. Looks like this'll be the first time I've been right on a debated match since Halo 3/Sunshine. Now to get my battle points through TWEWY/Dead Rising...

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I predict and analyse the Game of the Decade contest here:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56817040
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/7/2010 9:52:51 PM | message detail

From: TheCodeisBosco | #309
...okay, there's no freakin' way that was legit.


239 218
211 192
237 152

If there's any non-legitimacy, it's because Civ IV stuffers are taking a break!

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DFF
red sox 777 | Posted 11/7/2010 9:54:01 PM | message detail
I don't think we've had any examples of matches a half an hour in where its like 65% in Europe already and it flips. It might not be as dominant later on, but Persona WILL win Europe significantly.

Ocelot was over 70% on Red early on in Europe, and it fell to 54% or something by the end.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
vcharon | Posted 11/7/2010 9:55:36 PM | message detail
Now a stall.
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Greyfeld | Posted 11/7/2010 9:58:17 PM | message detail
Ocelot was over 70% on Red early on in Europe, and it fell to 54% or something by the end.

But that isn't a flip. A flip would require a lead change.
pjbasis | Posted 11/7/2010 9:58:38 PM | message detail
Yessss another close match right.

If TWEWY wins nothing can stop my battle points.

HAHAHAHAHAHA
TheCodeisBosco | Posted 11/7/2010 9:58:58 PM | message detail
239 218
211 192
237 152

If there's any non-legitimacy, it's because Civ IV stuffers are taking a break!


Fair enough! At least this update was little more kind to Civ... not that it really matters, of course. If it were to even make a single cut into Persona's lead, that'd be a minor miracle in itself.

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CURRENT GOTY SCORE: 33
CIVILIZATION >:(
vcharon | Posted 11/7/2010 10:00:37 PM | message detail
Civ almost cuts there.
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/7/2010 10:02:28 PM | message detail
It'll make plenty of cuts. It's pretty hard to turn 52-48 after the first hour though, unless you have at least one of: a major day vote advantage (though it wouldn't matter too much anyway here), superiority in Europe, or a really bad first hour. Last year's trends show that Persona falls off come morning though (and doesn't have a monstrous late night vote, just a good one), so I'll hold out some hope for Civ here.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
Greyfeld | Posted 11/7/2010 10:04:33 PM | message detail
the last two updates, P3 fell off as well, which is why the gains are so small now. Looks like the power hour is over.
transience | Posted 11/7/2010 10:25:45 PM | message detail
what is with these random huge updates for P3 followed by some very mediocre ones
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xyzzy
transience | Posted 11/7/2010 10:26:09 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=4107&type=1&seconds=60&max=0

three of 'em
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xyzzy
pjbasis | Posted 11/7/2010 10:27:07 PM | message detail
I can't believe the stats topic grew like 30 pages tonight.

I guess I also missed when Civ won that board vote. Man I would have been worried!
Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/7/2010 10:31:51 PM | message detail
Civ's doing a lot of falling off and then picking back up... Persona's stayed steady all match.

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I predict and analyse the Game of the Decade contest here:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56817040
DpObliVion | Posted 11/7/2010 10:43:25 PM | message detail
Persona starting to pour it on!

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Booyah, Grandma. Booyah. {XI} dood
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/7/2010 10:49:55 PM | message detail
This is gonna end up 55-56% at this rate.
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Epona > any Western character in CB9!
http://i.neoseeker.com/ca/fallout_new_vegas_conceptart_7XvFK.jpg
vcharon | Posted 11/7/2010 10:56:36 PM | message detail
Persona might not have a great night vote, but it makes up for it with Civ's horrid drop offs.
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Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/7/2010 10:56:56 PM | message detail
Persona powering away now. And I thought my oracle was gonna be so good too. >.>

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I predict and analyse the Game of the Decade contest here:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56817040
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/7/2010 11:02:26 PM | message detail
Crap, knew I shoulda banked here.
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/7/2010 11:03:22 PM | message detail
Well, Persona wins.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
DpObliVion | Posted 11/7/2010 11:06:52 PM | message detail
So glad I didn't bank!

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Booyah, Grandma. Booyah. {XI} dood
pjbasis | Posted 11/7/2010 11:11:11 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
pjbasis | Posted 11/7/2010 11:12:01 PM | message detail
I just realized Code: Veronica isn't in this contest.


This contest just lost all its credibility.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/7/2010 11:20:04 PM | message detail
I think we've had 20 matches that have featured RPGs versus non-RPG opponents (21 counting Deus Ex, which I believe has "RPG elements"). In those 20 matches, the ONLY RPG entrant that has bombed relative to our expectations has been DPP, and that game has a pretty convenient excuse with possible Nintendo wackiness. In every other match, the RPG has either done about as expected (even Demon's Souls, which was laughed outta town, did only 1.4% worse than the Oracle average), better, or much better.

This is making me reconsider my faith in Dead Rising. It may be a console game up against a handheld RPG with no series behind it, but it's not like DR itself is packing Mega Man's name power. I might switch to TWEWY there.
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Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/7/2010 11:20:52 PM | message detail

From: pjbasis | #335
I just realized Code: Veronica isn't in this contest.


This contest just lost all its credibility.


Yeah, I wasn't too happy when I realized no traditional RE game made the cut. REMake should be in a god damned field of 128.
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Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world!
Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/7/2010 11:23:05 PM | message detail
A strong argument can be made that FFX was more disappointing than DPP, but yeah, I have Dead Rising in my bracket, and there's no chance I'm backing it in the battle after what we've seen so far.

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I predict and analyse the Game of the Decade contest here:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56817040
transience | Posted 11/7/2010 11:23:36 PM | message detail
yeah, debate shifts to TWEWY vs. Dead Rising. RPGs have definitely done well here but they've all had reasons to - they've had bad competition. there are very few overperformances by RPGs.
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xyzzy
paulg235 | Posted 11/7/2010 11:23:51 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #337
REMake


Well, there's your problem.
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The Gamer In Me
"Oh boy, I always wanted to be a pedo." - Janus5000's response to sleeping with Misty for the night
ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/7/2010 11:25:22 PM | message detail

From: transience | #339
yeah, debate shifts to TWEWY vs. Dead Rising. RPGs have definitely done well here but they've all had reasons to - they've had bad competition. there are very few overperformances by RPGs.


I can't justify banking here... but I'm gonna feel sick if I lose it.

God damn, that stuff that KP posted about how many reviews or whatever P3 had was the swinging point for me on this match. Ugh.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/7/2010 11:25:43 PM | message detail

From: transience | #339
yeah, debate shifts to TWEWY vs. Dead Rising. RPGs have definitely done well here but they've all had reasons to - they've had bad competition. there are very few overperformances by RPGs.


Depends what criteria you're using. I think the best one is the Oracle average, because that takes about 100 "evolving" opinions for every match. And according to that, lots of RPGs have overperformed notably.
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Yoblazer: http://8board.webs.com/ariel.jpg
Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world!
ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/7/2010 11:27:43 PM | message detail
you know what, forget it. I'm sticking with Dead Rising. Sequel is on both 360 and PS3. There should be enough support there to get it past TWEWY.
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vcharon | Posted 11/7/2010 11:28:08 PM | message detail
Dead Rising is going to have to suck to lose to TWEWY. I guess I just see that match as open and shut. Maybe I shouldn't, but I remember the last character battle where Laharl defeated Neku, and earlier when Disgaea massively failed and lost to VC somehow.

Unless Laharl is that much stronger than his series or Neku is going to be that much weaker than TWEWY, I don't know how Dead Rising loses that match.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/7/2010 11:29:42 PM | message detail

From: Kotetsu534 | #338
A strong argument can be made that FFX was more disappointing than DPP


Dunno about that, but it's fair to say that FFX also did poorly relative to expectations. Still, 18/20 isn't bad at all, especially when some of those were really fantastic performances.
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Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/ml36gl_th.gif
Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world!
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/7/2010 11:30:25 PM | message detail
Civ 4 has been sharply rising in Europe, and is now a higher % in Europe than worldwide. Maybe it won't be killed as much in the dead hours as we thought, not that it matters at this point
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Epona > any Western character in CB9!
http://i.neoseeker.com/ca/fallout_new_vegas_conceptart_7XvFK.jpg
transience | Posted 11/7/2010 11:30:47 PM | message detail
Oracle is a fine metric, but a lot of those have been things like No Mercy being a joke. this has always been an RPG site so I don't think that trend is unusual. a lot of debatable matches have gone the RPG's way, but at the same time, they were already debatable and they were close-ass matches.

if you want to go that route, though, FFX beating Smash confirmed!
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xyzzy
ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/7/2010 11:32:06 PM | message detail
Also, you guys are sure Chrono Cross is going to beat DQVIII, right?

For some reason I picked DQ8 without thinking about it, and I wanna make sure that CC is the obvious choice.

Coz if I get Dead Rising right, I'm not banking until SFIV v. Uncharted 2.
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transience | Posted 11/7/2010 11:33:16 PM | message detail
Skies of Arcadia is the one that scares me,
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xyzzy
ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/7/2010 11:34:23 PM | message detail
Vyse kept getting in the contests, right?

There's no reason for BG2 to have any sort of strength.
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