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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 940

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red sox 777 | Posted 11/7/2010 9:08:47 AM | message detail
The power to destroy a planet is insignificant compared to the power of Nintendo.

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Solid Snake, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
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Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/7/2010 9:09:36 AM | message detail
I suppose Super Mario Sunshine has been kicked out of Planet Nintendo? >.>

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I predict and analyse the Game of the Decade contest here:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56817040
Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/7/2010 9:32:09 AM | message detail

From: vcharon | #472
Uh... how about Wii Sports (granted we know nothing of its strength yet) and GH2?


Wii Sports could be a flop or could be decent. It looked okayyyy in the vote-in poll at least for a 16-seed. GHII is also hard to say as Melee is just that strong.

I'd say Braid and maybe ICO are probably weaker.

Thing is, a lot of these games have dedicated followings that ensure they'll never be that weak.
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Something something something
^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig
vcharon | Posted 11/7/2010 9:34:04 AM | message detail
That reply was at exactly 12:32:09.

This means P3 wins.
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:>
Greyfeld | Posted 11/7/2010 9:34:09 AM | message detail
So Albion, what makes you believe that Civ is a niche series on gamefaqs?
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/7/2010 9:38:01 AM | message detail
So Albion, what makes you believe that Civ is a niche series on gamefaqs?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4003
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3450
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2425
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2246

Its never done anything more than niche. I'd take quite a few "Niche" games in the bracket over Civ 4, like Tales of Vesperia, Persona 4, Demon Souls, TWEWY, etc. Its niche on this site, since this site doesn't care about PC games in general.
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Epona > any Western character in CB9!
http://i.neoseeker.com/ca/fallout_new_vegas_conceptart_7XvFK.jpg
Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/7/2010 9:41:14 AM | message detail
Well, if you look at P3's prior polls, unlike P4 which has always done OK, P3 gets slaughtered. Now its popularity has probably boosted a lot since then but still...
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Something something something
^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig
GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/7/2010 9:42:05 AM | message detail
FE is falling down fast, no chance at getting a doubling now
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Oracle contest - 38th
Today's pick: Fire Emblem - 65.75% Status: good
ZFS | Posted 11/7/2010 9:42:19 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3073
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3164
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3957
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2985

Losing to Mafia II, barely above Rogue Galaxy? Persona 3 sux.

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A journey of a thousand miles must begin with a single step.
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/7/2010 9:44:43 AM | message detail
Man, everyone knew before the bracket was released that P3/Civ IV was about which game sucked less! You're not going to find impressive polls for either of these things!
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/7/2010 9:45:34 AM | message detail
PFFT!

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2246

Civ IV almost beat San Andreas!
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ZFS | Posted 11/7/2010 9:47:01 AM | message detail
Hell yeah, Persona you are done.

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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/7/2010 9:47:22 AM | message detail
brb changing Crew pick to Civ IV with 85%
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"SEXTON HILLBEAST" - TimJab
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/7/2010 9:48:17 AM | message detail

From: WarThaNemesis2 | #011
PFFT!

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2246

Civ IV almost beat San Andreas!


Welp, its over now. Make your time, P3
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"if only there were some way I could have sex" - Smartmuffin
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/7/2010 9:48:59 AM | message detail
And man, I really wish I had raised my Oracle here 5-10% or so. I just hate changing my Oracle because it rarely works out better for me.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/7/2010 9:51:16 AM | message detail
Man, Fire Emblem just lost exactly 1% in two updates. Maybe Tony Hawk will push this under 60% after all...!
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Advokaiser | Posted 11/7/2010 9:52:55 AM | message detail
Crap @ Civ4 almost beating San Andreas!!!

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"I remember a time when someone called World of Warcraft 'World of WoW'"
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/7/2010 9:52:56 AM | message detail
Do you guys think Civ IV has a higher playerbase on this site than Persona 3? I personally doubt that, but I went with Civ IV because it has a much bigger name among gamers at large. If I could go back, I'd tell myself that on GameFAQs, the Civilization name isn't big enough to propel you over jack.
charmander6000 | Posted 11/7/2010 9:56:00 AM | message detail
That was PC version GTA: SA

Remember Xbox Half-Life 2 lost to Ninja Gaiden Black.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 31/36 Today's Matches: SW: KotOR & FE
ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/7/2010 9:56:13 AM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #018
Do you guys think Civ IV has a higher playerbase on this site than Persona 3? I personally doubt that, but I went with Civ IV because it has a much bigger name among gamers at large. If I could go back, I'd tell myself that on GameFAQs, the Civilization name isn't big enough to propel you over jack.


Yeah. Hindsight in this one. Civ IV might not get killed or anything, but I wouldn't rate its chances at above like 5% when it comes to actually winning.
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Greyfeld | Posted 11/7/2010 9:59:45 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2246

Civ IV almost beat San Andreas!


Yeah I was just looking at that poll. I'm curious which way the SFF leaned in that poll.

But a couple things stand out to me. For one thing, FEAR won that poll. In what reality does FEAR beat even the lowest-tier JRPGs on this site? Also, the poll only has 49k votes total, which would be pretty horrendous even for a 12 hour poll today.
Oxbridge | Posted 11/7/2010 10:01:37 AM | message detail
By that logic, Phantasy Star Online and Conker's Bad Fur Day beat Pokemon G/S, so Advance Wars is SO going to win that one...

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=482
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Congratulations to Dr_Football, the Guru champion for 2010.
Ultimaphazon | Posted 11/7/2010 10:02:52 AM | message detail
Jeez FE, would you stop losing percentage already.
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A pro isn't someone who sacrifices himself for his job. That's just a fool. - Reno, FFVII
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695924 | Posted 11/7/2010 10:03:53 AM | message detail
2005 was a different mindset back then. San Andreas hasn't really matured into that "best GTA game" phase yet. GTA4 coming out really put SA on that pedestal. The SA today would stomped any Civ game even with another GTA game in the poll.
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lol opinions
FFI3_Lightning | Posted 11/7/2010 10:04:36 AM | message detail
lol @ that poll. What happened to F.E.A.R?
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/7/2010 10:06:42 AM | message detail
Hey guy No More Heroes defeated Okami in the GotY poll.

Let's just ignore that Okami was ported from the Wii.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 31/36 Today's Matches: SW: KotOR & FE
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/7/2010 10:08:41 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2246
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2253

Look at FEAR in the second poll.

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DFF
shane15 | Posted 11/7/2010 10:08:51 AM | message detail
Man Fire Emblem is having a decent contest so far.
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v303/Shaneh87/Haruhi/Kyonexplanation.jpg
shane15 | Posted 11/7/2010 10:10:09 AM | message detail
I had the Original FEAR on PC and thought it was pretty good.Never really bothered with any of the games after that though.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/7/2010 10:11:10 AM | message detail
Tonight's match is the first one where my Battle pick will differ from my bracket. I have a feeling this is also the case for a few others. Righto?
695924 | Posted 11/7/2010 10:12:33 AM | message detail
I changed it to Civ>P3 for battle pick at first because of b8, but have P3>Civ on my bracket. Now I have both P3>Civ.
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lol opinions
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/7/2010 10:13:25 AM | message detail
The last two times I felt like I should have changed my Battle pick and didn't were VC and MM9. Not making that mistake again.

Now watch P3 blow this.

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DFF
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/7/2010 10:14:34 AM | message detail
Did the ad get fixed? Because the votals rebounded from yesterday's day match and are a good bit higher despite the current match being Fire Emblem and a skateboarding game.

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DFF
charmander6000 | Posted 11/7/2010 10:19:59 AM | message detail
Nope, but if you look at LS's percent voted among continents, SA/DS only had 77% of the votes from North America, the lowest from the region in a day match.

Did something happen at North America?
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 31/36 Today's Matches: SW: KotOR & FE
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/7/2010 10:30:49 AM | message detail
Nothing major that I would know of.

So who do we take in FE vs. PoR? If they're equal, than Tony Hawk gets around 60% on No Mercy.

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DFF
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/7/2010 10:37:33 AM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #030
Tonight's match is the first one where my Battle pick will differ from my bracket. I have a feeling this is also the case for a few others. Righto?


I think I'm going to bank, but if I did make a pick, I'd go with P3, although I have Civ IV in my bracket.

Although I did go with GS > UYA in my battle pick yesterday, so this wouldn't be the first time I differ from my bracket.
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Ultimaphazon | Posted 11/7/2010 10:46:17 AM | message detail
I'm not banking because I feel like TWEWY / Dead Rising, where I plan on banking, is a much bigger crapshot, while I'm reasonably confident in Persona.
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A pro isn't someone who sacrifices himself for his job. That's just a fool. - Reno, FFVII
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/7/2010 10:46:30 AM | message detail
Last night's chart:

Time | KOTOR | DMC1 | Votes
0:05 | 63.17% | 36.83% | 877
1:00 | 61.60% | 38.40% | 6844
2:00 | 61.87% | 38.13% | 4658
3:00 | 57.57% | 42.43% | 3495
4:00 | 58.48% | 41.52% | 2647
5:00 | 54.07% | 45.93% | 2273
6:00 | 54.17% | 45.83% | 1992
7:00 | 53.64% | 46.36% | 2019
8:00 | 51.85% | 48.15% | 2058
9:00 | 54.91% | 45.09% | 2515
10:00 | 57.34% | 42.66% | 3193
11:00 | 56.99% | 43.01% | 3660
12:00 | 59.64% | 40.36% | 3910
13:00 | 59.25% | 40.75% | 3899

Man, what a swing here in trends. Nearly a 10% difference in KOTOR's best hour and its worst one. Also, DMC would've finished .12% higher than it finished without the extra hour! But it's pretty clear to see that KOTOR's night vote was abysmal, but its early vote and late morning vote were strong. The trends in the FFIX/KOTOR should prove interesting.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/7/2010 10:47:22 AM | message detail

From: Ultimaphazon | #037
I'm not banking because I feel like TWEWY / Dead Rising, where I plan on banking, is a much bigger crapshot, while I'm reasonably confident in Persona.


Yeah, I'd really rather not bank before I have at least 10,000 points, but at the same time, I don't want to lose everything I have, so it's a dilemma.

Not that I think I stand much of a chance of winning at this point, but...
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FFI3_Lightning | Posted 11/7/2010 10:48:10 AM | message detail

From: 695924 | #031
I changed it to Civ>P3 for battle pick at first because of b8, but have P3>Civ on my bracket. Now I have both P3>Civ.


i got CIV4 on my bracket but icare more about battle points right now since brackets are only worth 1 point. i'm gonna risk it and go for P3
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/7/2010 10:48:31 AM | message detail
"Pfft banking no thanks" -- ZFS

That's how champions do it
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/7/2010 10:49:14 AM | message detail
Didn't most Americans sleep through the extra hour? I'd assume it benefited DMC.
FFI3_Lightning | Posted 11/7/2010 10:49:29 AM | message detail

From: shane15 | #028
Man Fire Emblem is having a decent contest so far.


yeah it beat two sports games. What strength. GS would beat any FE comfortably.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/7/2010 10:49:53 AM | message detail

From: TheKoolAidShoto | #041
"Pfft banking no thanks" -- ZFS

That's how champions do it


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DFF
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/7/2010 10:50:54 AM | message detail

From: TheKoolAidShoto | #041
"Pfft banking no thanks" -- ZFS

That's how champions do it


Pretty sure HM's banking tonight!

From: PartOfYourWorld | #042
Didn't most Americans sleep through the extra hour? I'd assume it benefited DMC.


Well, either way, the difference is pretty negligible, but yeah, maybe.
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SuperAngelo128 | Posted 11/7/2010 10:52:13 AM | message detail

From: TheKoolAidShoto | #041
"Pfft banking no thanks" -- ZFS

That's how champions do it


Koolaid knows where it's at

and I'm not talking about the banking part
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~ Ange
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/7/2010 10:52:49 AM | message detail
Nope, but if you look at LS's percent voted among continents, SA/DS only had 77% of the votes from North America, the lowest from the region in a day match.

Yeah, I found that to be quite strange. Yesterday's day match had only 77.68% of the votes from North America, which is well below the old record low of 79.02% set during the Snake/Sephiroth match in the last contest.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/7/2010 11:00:17 AM | message detail
Obviously this means that SA is boned in a day match.

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DFF
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/7/2010 11:01:29 AM | message detail
Heh, Dead Space won Wyoming AND Utah.
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WhiteLens | Posted 11/7/2010 11:02:00 AM | message detail
While this match may look bad for Civ IV, I don't think we're giving FE7 enough credit for being a Nintendo game, notable that it's the first English release in the series, which got its name out thanks to Melee.
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