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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 939

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charmander6000 | Posted 11/6/2010 12:27:10 PM | message detail
Yeah, he's stronger than Sephiroth post-KH, but they looked almost equal in 2003 and a lot of people thought they were pretty close in 2002.

Besides, 58/42 is a huge margin to expect from Cloud/Mario in 2002. That seems to reflect really poorly on Mario.

Of course, Mario didn't look that great up to the day of the match, but still.


I agree with what you're saying, but that is what the numbers suggest, too bad we don't have more information on day of the match releases.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 29/34 Today's Matches: GS & GTA: SA
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2010 12:27:58 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #194
Uhhh...morning vote, bro.


Zelda did pretty bad that contest anyway. She lost the ASV to Ezio (Yes, I know AC has a good day vote, but Zelda's supposed to have one, too) and didn't even really dominate the morning vote against Travis Touchdown of all characters. She just had a really bad contest, all things considered. None of her performances were really all that great.

Besides...

Time | Zelda | Aeris | Demographic
EBV | 61.96% | 38.04% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 59.12% | 40.88% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 52.95% | 47.05% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 56.16% | 43.84% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 56.05% | 43.95% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 58.85% | 41.15% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 55.27% | 44.73% | (22:00-24:00)

Didn't seem to help Aerith on FFXII day, so that feels like a bit of false correlation.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2010 12:29:09 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #200
Cloud was above 57% on Mario every year from 2003 until......2010, actually.


Yeah, but 2003 and on Cloud is a different guy than 2002 Cloud.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/6/2010 12:29:23 PM | message detail
Really? This is your excuse now? Despite the fact that the morning vote and ASV are strongly correlated, that Ratchet did better in NA than Europe in every poll he's been in?

You should really watch Leon's trend charts more often.

Basically ASV means a lot less because the DSV is already close to what the ASV has compare to the FNV is to the morning vote. That is why we don't see much of a percent change in day matches.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 29/34 Today's Matches: GS & GTA: SA
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/6/2010 12:30:38 PM | message detail
I would imagine it's a bigger deal in a 12-hour match day match. The game comes out, people buy it, come home and check GameFAQs and they see Golden Sun on the front page.

And really, considering how Aeris went on to perform in later contests, she overperformed in that match anyway.

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DFF
red sox 777 | Posted 11/6/2010 12:31:39 PM | message detail
I think it was a lot more than SMS being released though. That match had the most aberrant votals we have ever seen in contest history. Cloud lost that match and still received MORE VOTES THAN ANY PREVIOUS CHARACTER IN ANY CONTEST MATCH. I think he probably broke the record for most votes of anything in any Gamefaqs poll too, though I'm not sure of it. Cloud received more votes against Mario than he received against Fox, Pikachu, and Alucard. More than Sephiroth recieved against Serious Sam or whoever he faced. More than Megaman against Ms. Pac-Man. More than Link against Strider Hiryu. And he still lost.

The only other time we've seen an extra 50,000 votes appear out of nowhere was L-Block.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2010 12:32:37 PM | message detail
Also, wasn't Link/Cloud 2006 Twilight Princess day?

*checks*

Well, it was the day before TP day, so this may not be relevant, but...

Time | Cloud | Link | Demographic
EBV | 41.66% | 58.34% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 42.48% | 57.52% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 46.38% | 53.62% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 46.35% | 53.65% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 44.66% | 55.34% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 47.53% | 52.47% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 49.73% | 50.27% | (22:00-24:00)

Plus, it was a weekend match, so whatever, I'm still gonna post it.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/6/2010 12:32:54 PM | message detail
And really, look at the votals.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3851
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3845

You tell we where those extra 6000 votes came from, especially considering Mario is a bigger vote draw than Bowser.

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DFF
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2010 12:33:14 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #205
And really, considering how Aeris went on to perform in later contests, she overperformed in that match anyway.


Performing equal to Yuna is an overperformance, huh.

I'll keep that in mind.
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tgs2 | Posted 11/6/2010 12:33:48 PM | message detail
You are overestimating how many people are going to be voting GS because of the release a tiny bit....

It sold around 45k in Japan in 3 days so it's acceptable, but doesn't look like match-changing worthy level sales. Of course it's not quite as popular in Japan compared to Europe and the States.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/6/2010 12:33:58 PM | message detail
Yuna overperformed more than anyone else! Female Bracket completely overrated her.

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DFF
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2010 12:37:48 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #211
Yuna overperformed more than anyone else! Female Bracket completely overrated her.


Well then FFXII probably had nothing to do with Aerith's "overperformance!"

Although Aerith's was probably more accurate. She still got 56% on Auron last year, so yeah.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2010 12:38:03 PM | message detail
Or rather, Auron got 56% on Aerith, I should say.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2010 12:45:46 PM | message detail
Although looking at this early ASV showing from San Andreas...

Holy crap, this is terrible.

Dead Space better ASV than Pokemon confirmed

Or the kiddies are the real racists or something
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/6/2010 12:46:16 PM | message detail
It's saturday, there's no ASV.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2010 12:47:00 PM | message detail
Well, it's also 10:45 P.M. over here, so I'm thrown off!
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/6/2010 1:01:42 PM | message detail
Is Golden Sun really that hyped anyways? I can't find any pre-order listings for it and it goes all the way down to 37k for vgchartz.

It does have three weeks to gain some though, but if people aren't getting the must buy it asap feeling then don't expect much of a boost.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 29/34 Today's Matches: GS & GTA: SA
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2010 1:03:09 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #217
Is Golden Sun really that hyped anyways?


*waits for someone to post THAT poll*
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/6/2010 1:07:45 PM | message detail
*waits for someone to post THAT poll*

I feel that hype for it has gone down since then. At the time people were "OMG a new GS game finally." Now the feeling is more like "Yes a third GS game I'll be picking that up eventually."
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 29/34 Today's Matches: GS & GTA: SA
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2010 1:08:21 PM | message detail
But it's #4 on the DS message boards!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2010 1:08:39 PM | message detail
Oh wait, #3 today!
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."
charmander6000 | Posted 11/6/2010 1:10:18 PM | message detail
But San Andreas is number 3 on the PS2.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 29/34 Today's Matches: GS & GTA: SA
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2010 1:11:28 PM | message detail
Holy crap it is!

...And Persona 4 is ranked above KH1! That can't be good.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/6/2010 1:38:53 PM | message detail
Considering most of Kingdom Hearts' target demographic haven't learned how to read yet, it's understandable that its FAQ page is pretty unpopular.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/6/2010 1:52:35 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2010 4:45:46 PM | message detail
Although looking at this early ASV showing from San Andreas...

Holy crap, this is terrible.

Dead Space better ASV than Pokemon confirmed


The trends in this match look weird already. After 1:21 PM, San Andreas started going up like crazy until 2:56 PM before going back down again. San Andreas is still going down again, although those last few updates make it seem like it might go back up again.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/6/2010 2:07:16 PM | message detail
charmander6000 | Posted 11/6/2010 3:20:59 PM | message detail
I think the vote totals may be due to the ad on the front page, after you load it expands pushing the poll away so you can't see it.


I had no idea there was an ad on the front page until you pointed it out. I had to turn off Adblock and also turn off a setting in GameFOX that blocks the ads. After I did that, I saw an ad on the homepage in the form of a background image for Call of Duty: Black Ops. Also worth mentioning that the homepage background image does not show up if you are using the NeoClassic, NeoClassic Blue, or Nine Standard stylesheets. And I use Nine Standard, so I would not see the background image even if it wasn't for GameFOX. With the other stylesheets, the background image does show up.

There is also an ad on the homepage above the "Today on GameFAQs" header, but that doesn't seem to interfere with the positioning of the poll.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2010 2:44:38 PM | message detail
Oh cool, tonight's the 13 hour match. Whoo, we surely all need an extra hour of KOTOR/DMC.
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Billy Blaze | Posted 11/6/2010 3:17:42 PM | message detail
A/D: Even with the 13 hour day, DMC/KotOR will still be one of the worst votals.

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Redtooth
ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/6/2010 3:40:33 PM | message detail
Dead Space doing as well as it possibly could today. Good to see!

Hopefully Dead Space 2 is amazing and the series gets even more popular!
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/6/2010 3:44:12 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #151
R&C has also establish that it is a weak series.

I also find it very hard to swallow that GS would be stronger than RSE.


You know.

This is the first valid San Andreas argument that I've seen.

Hmm.
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shane15 | Posted 11/6/2010 3:53:24 PM | message detail
Hey are you guys favouring KOTOR here?
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voltch | Posted 11/6/2010 3:53:44 PM | message detail
yes.
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Nipaa~
shane15 | Posted 11/6/2010 3:59:59 PM | message detail
*is happy*
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695924 | Posted 11/6/2010 4:19:57 PM | message detail
If Dark Dawn comes out on the GS vs SA match day then... damn SA is screwed.
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lol opinions
voltch | Posted 11/6/2010 4:23:09 PM | message detail
the whitest of white guys against the....racistfaqs, let's do this gogogogo!
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Nipaa~
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/6/2010 4:32:21 PM | message detail
http://img441.imageshack.us/img441/2909/goldensun.png
vs.
http://img529.imageshack.us/img529/932/sanandreask.png

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DFF
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2010 4:33:10 PM | message detail
Somebody make a San Andreas pic with a white person in it!
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/6/2010 4:34:03 PM | message detail
You have to play San Andreas for like 8 hours to even see a white guy!

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DFF
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2010 4:34:46 PM | message detail
But they exist, right?

So come on!
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voltch | Posted 11/6/2010 4:44:53 PM | message detail
well there's officer pulatzki who's white in the game....but he's racist in the game, then we got a blind chinaman.
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Uguu~
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/6/2010 4:46:45 PM | message detail
Should make a match pic with the hippy who gives you the mission to raze his fields of pot before the feds reach them
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Epona > any Western character in CB9!
http://i.neoseeker.com/ca/fallout_new_vegas_conceptart_7XvFK.jpg
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/6/2010 7:03:42 PM | message detail
So I was bored and got to wondering: what game in the contest has the least amount of user ratings? While looking through stuff I figured might as well make a full list!

Pokemon D/P/P: 8873
Super Smash Bros. Brawl: 8591
Grand Theft Auto IV: 8198
Fallout 3: 7628 (360, PS3, PC)
Metal Gear Solid 4: 5952
Call of Duty 4: 5673 (PC, 360, PS3)
Halo 3: 5726
Zelda: Twilight Princess: 4933 (Wii, GC)
Final Fantasy X: 4615
Final Fantasy XII: 4587
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2: 4486 (PC, 360, PS3)
Mario Kart Wii: 3904
Oblivion: 3706 (PC, PS3, 360)
Resident Evil 4: 3460 (GC, PS2, Wii)
Resident Evil 5: 3454 (PC, 360, PS3)
Kingdom Hearts II: 3449
Pokemon R/S/E: 3426
Mass Effect: 3320 (PC, 360)
Assassin's Creed: 3213 (360, PS3)
Kingdom Hearts: 3205
Super Smash Bros. Melee: 3153
Rock Band 2: 3106 (PS2, 360, PS3, Wii)
Zelda: Wind Waker: 2868
Bioshock: 2847 (PC, 360, PS3)
Super Mario Galaxy: 2837
Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas: 2811 (PC, PS2, Xbox)
Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII: 2730
Dragon Age: Origins: 2715 (360, PS3, PC)
Gears of War 2: 2507
Final Fantasy IX: 2503
Left 4 Dead: 2446 (PC, 360)
World of Warcraft: 2412
Street Fighter IV: 2331 (PC, 360, PS3, original + Super)
Pokemon G/S/C: 2323
Dissidia: 2270
Borderlands: 2221 (360, PS3, PC)
The World Ends With You: 2197
Persona 3: 2154 (original + FES)
LittleBigPlanet: 2122
Gears of War: 2121
Half-Life 2: 2093 (PC + Orange Box on 360 & PS3)
Portal: 2056 (PC + Orange Box on 360 & PS3)
Tales of Symphonia: 1980
Metal Gear Solid 3: 1954 (original + Subsistence)
Wii Sports: 1913
Diablo II: 1910 (original + Lord of Destruction)
Assassin's Creed II: 1908 (PS3, 360)
Dead Space: 1850 (PC, 360, PS3)
Disgaea: 1820 (original + DS/PSP ports)
Batman: Arkham Asylum: 1738
Metal Gear Solid 2: 1666 (original + Substance)
Tales of Vesperia: 1606
Persona 4: 1579
Halo: Combat Evolved: 1549 (PC, Xbox)
Metroid Prime: 1509
Paper Mario 2: 1483
Halo 2: 1410
Zelda: Majora's Mask: 1403
Sonic Adventure 2: 1400 (original + Battle)
Mario Kart DS: 1373
Dead Rising: 1343
Okami: 1329 (Wii, PS2)
Fable: 1286 (original + Lost Chapters)
Grand Theft Auto: Vice City: 1280 (PC, PS2)
Super Mario Sunshine: 1254
Uncharted 2: 1250
Star Wars: KOTOR: 1216 (PC, Xbox)
Dragon Quest VIII: 1210
God of War: 1209
God of War II: 1201
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/6/2010 7:03:50 PM | message detail
Infamous: 1193
Guitar Hero 2: 1135 (PS2, 360)
Soul Calibur II: 1125 (GC, PS2, Xbox)
Shadow of the Colossus: 1120
Team Fortress 2: 1102 (PC only)
Demon's Souls: 1098
New Super Mario Bros. Wii: 1090
Animal Crossing: 1075
Chrono Cross: 1069
Star Ocean 3: 1064
Grand Theft Auto III: 1007 (PC, PS2)
Golden Sun: 988
Valkyria Chronicles: 985
Fire Emblem: 984
Devil May Cry 3: 970 (original + Special Edition)
Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney: 907
Star Wars Battlefront II: 905 (PC, Xbox, PS2)
Legend of Dragoon: 901
Left 4 Dead 2: 899 (PC, 360)
Devil May Cry: 870
Fire Emblem Path of Radiance: 863
Mega Man 9: 820 (Wii, PS3, 360)
Warcraft III: 798 (original + Frozen Throne)
Morrowind: 776 (PC, Xbox, used GotY Edition)
Castlevania: Dawn of Sorrow: 775
Paper Mario: 772
No More Heroes: 761
Metroid Fusion: 668
Phoenix Wright: T&T: 664
Skies of Arcadia: 649 (DC, GC)
Perfect Dark: 589
Ratchet and Clank: Up Your Arsenal: 551
Prince of Persia: Sands of Time: 541 (PS2, GC, Xbox)
Braid: 518 (PC, 360, PS3)
Ninja Gaiden: 514 (original + Black)
Banjo-Tooie: 477
Silent Hill 2: 475
Marvel vs. Capcom 2: 453 (PS2, Xbox, DC)
F-Zero GX: 444
ICO: 411
Plants vs. Zombies: 398
Viewtiful Joe: 396 (GC, PS2)
Katamari Damacy: 381
Baldur's Gate II: 370 (original + Throne of Bhaal)
Beyond Good and Evil: 369 (GC, PC, PS2, Xbox)
Eternal Darkness: 362
Psychonauts: 349 (PC, Xbox, PS2)
Timesplitters 2: 345 (PS2, GC, Xbox)
Mother 3: 329
Deus Ex: 317 (PC, PS2)
Advance Wars: 312
The Sims: 312 (PC, Xbox, PS2)
Shenmue: 306
Tony Hawk's Pro Skater 2: 297 (N64, DC, PS1, PC)
Conker's Bad Fur Day: 280
Civilization IV: 244
WWF No Mercy: 215
Jet Grind Radio: 164

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DFF
AxemPink | Posted 11/6/2010 7:30:33 PM | message detail
Persona 3: 2154 (original + FES)
...
Civilization IV: 244
WWF No Mercy: 215
Jet Grind Radio: 164


More evidence of "Gamefaqs doesn't care about Civilization."

Probably confirms that Path of Radiance's performance was entirely because of No Mercy being turbofodder. Tony Hawk's not much higher than No Mercy either, so FE7 might give us a repeat performance of that.
charmander6000 | Posted 11/6/2010 7:50:15 PM | message detail
Match XXXVII: (3) Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic vs. (14) Devil May Cry

Information

Name: Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic
Year: 2003
Previous Performance: SpC2k9 – 3rd in round 1

Name: Devil May Cry
Year: 2001
Previous Performance: N/A

Analysis

There were a few people arguing for the upset, but ever since Devil May Cry 3 flopped it pretty much went away. Sure Mother 3 is stronger than what we gave credit for, but there is still a limit that most people can give it. There seems to be some debate on to which Devil May Cry game would be stronger and based on the stats topic it seems that most people believe that 3 is the stronger game which can’t mean good things to the original.

Knights of the Old Republic was a surprise in the last game contest where most people thought the game was largely forgotten and would finish last. Instead it gave Halo a fight for second place which prompted the board to rally for Darth Revan. While the game isn’t a world beater it shouldn’t have much of a problem against an action game that has yet to show us or give reason it has any strength.

I’ve always been a big supporter that when a Devil May Cry game reached the contest it would flop terribly so I believe Knights of the Old Republic has a great chance at breaking 60% in this match. Even in the vote-in it was very easily beaten by Assassin’s Creed, a game that was given mixed reviews and something I would take to lose in this match had it been placed here.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Star Wars: KotOR > Devil May Cry

charmander6000’s Prediction: Star Wars: KotOR wins, 61.25% - 38.75%

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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 29/34 Today's Matches: GS & GTA: SA
ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/6/2010 7:52:13 PM | message detail
Persona 3: 2154 (original + FES)
...
Civilization IV: 244


Oh crap.

Okay, definitely picking P3 in my battle pick WHY THE **** DID I TAKE CIV IV.
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NoDicePwn | Posted 11/6/2010 7:55:41 PM | message detail
So I just noticed Gamefaqs time is 11:55 EST. Are we getting a new match in 5 minutes?
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Epona > any Western character in CB9!
http://i.neoseeker.com/ca/fallout_new_vegas_conceptart_7XvFK.jpg
red sox 777 | Posted 11/6/2010 7:56:40 PM | message detail
Ha, that means Bacon messed up daylight savings time for the second year in a row. It should be 9:55 if you wanted to adjust early.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/6/2010 7:59:07 PM | message detail
I'll be honest, seeing Civ IV's user ratings made me change too. Was already on the fence before seeing that, and...yeah. I know they need to be taken with a big grain of salt (I mean look at what the #1 is), but that's just terrible.

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DFF
Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 11/6/2010 8:03:08 PM | message detail
Keep in mind "My Games" is a relatively new feature and most people only add games as they play them and don't really go back and add games they had played before. Persona fans may simply be a lot more likely to bother with this than Civ fans.
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