GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 939
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/5/2010 7:38:08 PM | message detail |
Pokemon GSC > FFX! ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~ http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://www.thengamer.com/ http://thengamer.com/xstats ~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame ~*Character Contest Histories*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the Match Pics*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense. Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated. Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Solid Snake, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man. --- `·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´ http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/6259/1246921928837.jpg |
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 11/5/2010 7:44:08 PM | message detail |
Even
without this match I'm wishing I picked GSC > FFX. I'm also wishing
that I picked Half-Life 2 > Fallout 3, even though you can't be so
sure that anything is pointing towards that match going either way, but
HL2 will likely rally over the top if it gets there. See, Freeman will get loads of support from his fans to negate Kratos's day power, after which he's free to deliver loads of Combine SMG shots to Samus or Amaterasu on way to surviving the nuclear apocalypse. Then he meets the Nintendo All-Star cast and gets shot down easily. Man I can't wait to actually get to these next-gen games. I'm also likely playing through SSBM this summer in honor of its inevitable victory. --- Why did I pick Brawl to win the contest? |
RustyMrSaturn | Posted 11/5/2010 7:53:28 PM | message detail |
i was so close to picking GSC > FFX i'm just hopping melee gets rollin'! --- Even the mighty kracken was no match for KrahenProphet RUSTY ~ your messiah |
Big Bob | Posted 11/5/2010 7:54:51 PM | message detail |
Wind Waker > GSC! --- http://card.mygamercard.net/Mach+Tornado.png http://backloggery.com/big_bob |
YoboD | Posted 11/5/2010 7:57:19 PM | message detail |
GSC> Melee! ... I'll be quiet now. --- Time to wander around Aimlessly |
red sox 777 | Posted 11/5/2010 9:39:22 PM | message detail |
I want to be the very best Like no one ever was To catch them is my real test To pass them is my cause MGS4, FFX MGS and CT Each game we shall ream It's always been our dream GSC! It's you and me I know it's my destiny Pokemon! Oh you're my best friend In a world we must defend Nintendo! Our hearts so true Our service will pull us through You teach me and I'll serve you Nintendo! Gotta catch 'em all Gotta catch 'em all Every challenge along the way With courage I will face I will battle Seven one day To claim my rightful place Come with me the time is right There's no better team Square shall kneel before our might FFVII, that's our dream Nintendo! Gotta catch 'em all Gotta catch 'em all --- Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest. |
pjbasis | Posted 11/5/2010 9:42:53 PM | message detail |
At least you realize GSC could never beat OoT. |
red sox 777 | Posted 11/5/2010 9:46:44 PM | message detail |
Nintendo
seeks power entirely for its own sake. We are not interested in the
good of others; we are interested solely in power. Not wealth or luxury
or long life or happiness: only power, pure power. What pure power
means you will understand presently. We are different from Square,
Capcom, Konami, even Microsoft and EA, in that we know what we are
doing. All the others, even those who resembled ourselves, were cowards
and hypocrites. There will be no curiosity, no enjoyment of the process of life. All competing pleasures will be destroyed. But always— do not forget this, Snake— always there will be the intoxication of power, constantly increasing and constantly growing subtler. Always, at every moment, there will be the thrill of victory, the sensation of trampling on an enemy who is helpless. If you want a picture of the future, imagine a kokiri boot stamping on a human face— forever. But it was all right, everything was all right, the struggle was finished. He had won the victory over himself. He loved Link. --- Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest. |
Not_Wylvane | Posted 11/6/2010 3:17:27 AM | message detail |
More like Golden Sun > Final Fantasy X! --- Wylvane _Panuru_ is a horrible user. |
voltch | Posted 11/6/2010 3:18:39 AM | message detail |
FFIX>FFX book it. --- Uguu~ |
Eeeevil Overlord | Posted 11/6/2010 3:18:49 AM | message detail |
Wow, poor Leon :p. --- James - Board 8's Resident Warm And Safe, Slipper-Wearing User & The Cream of Porcupine Tree Fanboyism |
azuarc | Posted 11/6/2010 3:57:18 AM | message detail |
"Man
I can't wait to actually get to these next-gen games. I'm also likely
playing through SSBM this summer in honor of its inevitable victory." That's a ways off, nee? Four hours left, but lookit the 70% for Golden Sun....out of 22k votes total. I'm wondering if ultimately nobody cares about this match and just went top option. |
Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/6/2010 4:15:50 AM | message detail |
Doubtful.
Didn't happen for VC/Disgaea. It's just what happens when you take a
fairly strong game and put it against a really weak one(suck it, Leon). --- Something something something ^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig |
voltch | Posted 11/6/2010 4:17:37 AM | message detail |
I'm sure he'd say Up yours to the rest of us for loling at him. but w/e you took digs at me for DMC3, well lolz Ratchet & Clank! --- Uguu~ |
Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/6/2010 4:25:13 AM | message detail |
Awesome, red sox. --- I predict and analyse the Game of the Decade contest here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56817040 |
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 11/6/2010 5:20:03 AM | message detail |
My summer break begins in March. Sort of... --- Currently Playing: StarCraft, Zelda: Ocarina of Time |
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/6/2010 6:04:42 AM | message detail |
Golden Sun>FFX Up Your Arsenal would double Viewtiful Joe RIGHT RIGHT --- DFF |
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2010 6:06:35 AM | message detail |
From: Eeeevil Overlord | #011 Eh, R&C getting destroyed like this was always a good possibility. Again, like with No Mercy, I don't pull away the fanboy facade to let people know what I really think (My Battle Challenge has Golden Sun > UYA, FYI, because I had a decent streak going and knew UYA wasn't going to win). In fact, I see this as a pretty similar correlation to POR/No Mercy. Golden Sun blowing out UYA doesn't mean it's the favorite to beat San Andreas. It just means UYA is weak. Dead Space probably beats UYA, so don't think San Andreas needs 70% or something today. --- Support Barret Wallace (Final Fantasy VII) for Character Battle IX! http://img687.imageshack.us/img687/3834/banner1barret.jpg |
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2010 6:08:01 AM | message detail |
Also,
UYA's doing quite a bit better with the day vote than it was at night,
so don't automatically assume Golden Sun has an advantage just because
it's a day match. --- Support Otacon (Metal Gear Solid) for Character Battle IX! http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/1950/banner4otacon.jpg |
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/6/2010 6:09:18 AM | message detail |
We
already knew that Golden Sun is more night-oriented than day oriented.
It still has a better day vote than San Andreas, especially on the day
Dark Dawn is going to be released. --- DFF |
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2010 6:11:13 AM | message detail |
From: KamikazePotato | #020 San Andreas didn't even have a bad day vote last time, which is odd considering it was in a match with God of War, Tales of Symphonia, and Oblivion. Plus, 12 hour matches kill ASV trends anyway. The ASV only matters if the match is close to begin with. --- Support Squirtle (Pokemon R/B/Y) for Character Battle IX! http://img832.imageshack.us/img832/8463/banner2squirtle.jpg |
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/6/2010 6:12:23 AM | message detail |
I'm sorry Leon, but if you don't think the match will be at least close after this, then I don't know what to tell you! --- DFF |
Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/6/2010 6:13:45 AM | message detail |
It's all relative. We've seen GTA blow it with the day once already... Also remember, Dark Dawn comes out the day of that match. It's going to be strngest during the day for that reason-people will have bought the game and head here, which they could not do in a night match. Also Dead Space's strength relative to UYA is hard to peg. GTA will need to do a lot better than Golden Sun is doing now to be a clear favourite, otherwise the match is up in the air. --- Something something something ^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig |
ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/6/2010 6:13:56 AM | message detail |
Leon,
I don't understand why you won't give Golden Sun some credit here, it
makes UYA look better, and UYA needs all the help it can get. --- http://i974.photobucket.com/albums/ae229/yungflyerz/67106910.jpg |
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2010 6:14:44 AM | message detail |
From: KamikazePotato | #022 It's like saying, "Sorry, if you don't think POR/DPP will be at least close after this, then I don't know what to tell you!" Because UYA is probably down on that level, honestly, which is unfortunate. And when I say "close," I mean like 51/49. If it's a 52.5/47.5 match going into the ASV, I think San Andreas would probably manage to hold on and win anyway. --- "The great GF...Bahamut." "...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..." |
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2010 6:15:15 AM | message detail |
From: ExThaNemesis | #024 Because I know how popular R&C is(n't) around here. Let's just be honest. --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/6/2010 6:15:33 AM | message detail |
Dude you think UYA is anywhere near as weak as No Mercy? I'm sorry but that's ludicrous. --- http://i974.photobucket.com/albums/ae229/yungflyerz/67106910.jpg |
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2010 6:16:11 AM | message detail |
From: ExThaNemesis | #027 Nah, Golden Sun probably beats POR easily. But still, this says a lot more about UYA than it does about Golden Sun. --- Support Otacon (Metal Gear Solid) for Character Battle IX! http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/1950/banner4otacon.jpg |
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/6/2010 6:16:31 AM | message detail |
I'm
sorry, but comparing UYA to No Mercy is absolutely ridiculous. There
are a variety of reasons for No Mercy to be as weak as it was, and none
of them apply to Rachet and Clank. It really seems like you're reaching
to protect your bracket here. --- DFF |
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2010 6:19:31 AM | message detail |
I don't really care one way or the other. I'd rather Golden Sun win, and winning the contest has never been a priority for me. I'm just not giving Golden Sun the match because it got 70% on Ratchet & Clank. For one, we haven't even seen San Andreas's match yet. And I didn't say UYA = No Mercy. I said it's the same kind of match. People aren't giving POR a shot at DPP because it got 72% even though DPP barely got 55% on Fusion because they know that match said more about No Mercy than it did about POR. This is the same. UYA would certainly beat No Mercy, I'm not saying anything of the sort. But it's a similar situation. --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/6/2010 6:19:50 AM | message detail |
I
won't say that I'm fully confident in Golden Sun at this point, but it
has every factor going for it in the next match. I could give about
four things going for it, and I'm struggling to see any advantages GTA
has at this point. --- http://i974.photobucket.com/albums/ae229/yungflyerz/67106910.jpg |
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2010 6:21:15 AM | message detail |
Honestly,
I'm going to reserve judgment on that one until we see San Andreas in
action. If it gets high 50s-low 60s, then I'd give Golden Sun favorite
status. If it puts up 65%+, I'd consider it a push. If it beats GS's
percentage here, forget about it. --- "I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now." |
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/6/2010 6:24:01 AM | message detail |
The
problems is estimates like those seem more like estimates you would
make on a normal match. This is the day Dark Dawn is being released.
Remember what happened the last time something similar happened? http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3809 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3845 You can't even say "Well Golden Sun's release won't be nearly that big", because while it won't be as huge as a new Pokemon game releasing, we've already got proof that GameFAQs is pretty darn hyped for it. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3512 --- DFF |
tgs2 | Posted 11/6/2010 6:26:33 AM | message detail |
I'd still give SA the advantage if it puts low 60s here. It's the more proven game so to speak. (that isn't saying much I know) --- You may take Mr. Rogers down, but I will be back and become more powerful than you ever imagine "tgs is taking it alone" |
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/6/2010 6:26:35 AM | message detail |
And
I think it's pretty telling that Dark Dawn is #4 on the DS message
boards despite still having three weeks until it comes out. The games
above it are three Pokemon games. People are getting excited about this. --- DFF |
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2010 6:32:30 AM | message detail |
I
think a little bit of Charizard's last two matches was a bandwagon
effect. I mean, only 8.83% of the site's brackets had him getting
there, so I wouldn't be surprised if he had a bit of a bandwagon at
that point, something GS's not going to be able to get from just one
match. Not to say Dark Dawn will do nothing, but I don't think Charizard's last two matches were ALL HG/SS. --- http://img267.imageshack.us/img267/2369/mythbattlers.jpg http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v516/Sensui22/1248835958206.png |
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2010 6:33:30 AM | message detail |
That is, 8.83% had the Zard getting to Bowser. Only 3.17% had him getting to Mario. --- Support Squirtle (Pokemon R/B/Y) for Character Battle IX! http://img832.imageshack.us/img832/8463/banner2squirtle.jpg |
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2010 6:37:24 AM | message detail |
Oh right, yesterday's chart: Time | Vesperia | Borderlands | Votes 0:05 | 46.11% | 53.89% | 681 1:00 | 44.88% | 55.12% | 6323 2:00 | 45.13% | 54.87% | 5513 3:00 | 44.33% | 55.67% | 4915 4:00 | 44.56% | 55.44% | 4955 5:00 | 44.29% | 55.71% | 4586 6:00 | 42.92% | 57.08% | 4378 7:00 | 43.56% | 56.44% | 4325 8:00 | 44.48% | 55.52% | 3829 9:00 | 47.96% | 55.78% | 3186 10:00 | 44.78% | 55.22% | 3024 11:00 | 45.34% | 54.66% | 2770 12:00 | 45.57% | 54.43% | 2451 Eh, pretty much 55/45 the whole way except for a couple of good hours by Borderlands in the ASV. --- "The great GF...Bahamut." "...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..." |
Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/6/2010 6:43:13 AM | message detail |
Dark
Dawn is likely to be the number one game on the site when it comes out.
It's gonna get a lot of traffic, meaning the site will get a lot of
Golden Sun fans. Also I see nothing to say Dead Space is stronger than UYA. It got brutalised in the 2008 and 2009(Extraction) GotY polls about as badly, perhaps worse, than R&C normally does and Isaac Clarke looked OK in the vote-in poll but it was a weak field-and I certainly wouldn't have him near Ratchet. --- Something something something ^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig |
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2010 6:44:29 AM | message detail |
Oh,
Ratchet probably beats Isaac Clarke, but that doesn't mean much for UYA
itself. Ratchet didn't become halfway decent until the PS3 games. --- http://img.imgcake.com/leonpngpe.png http://img.imgcake.com/squalloweenpngem.png |
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/6/2010 6:45:42 AM | message detail |
This should be the match pic. http://images1.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20101018184943/goldensun/images/f/fe/DDIsaac.png Isaac's Beard would get 57%+ on OoT. --- DFF |
transcience | Posted 11/6/2010 6:46:07 AM | message detail |
if
KP says Dark Dawn one more time, I'm going to scream. and the reason
it's #4 on the boards is because it came out in Japan last week + the
DS not getting new releases thanks to the impending 3DS. Golden Sun
will win on its own merits, not some superboost. and it's got great
merit based on this match. you're not giving UYA enough credit, Leon. is it strong? no. is it much different than Dead Space? no. it might even be stronger. hell, it's probably stronger. --- add the c and back away iphonesience |
charmander6000 | Posted 11/6/2010 6:47:58 AM | message detail |
There's
also people arguing that without HG/SS Charizard would have still won
over Bowser. Remember Kratos had huge hype for God of War III going in
that match and Charizard easily went past him. I also find it quite
funny if you think GS3 is going to boost GS has much as a new Pokemon
game. Also UYA had every reason to flop if you think about it, we just chose to ignore it. --- BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls GotD Bracket: 29/34 Today's Matches: GS & GTA: SA |
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/6/2010 6:49:00 AM | message detail |
I picked UYA to flop and GS to beat San Andreas and I still expected 63% to be the absolute highest GS could get here. --- DFF |
charmander6000 | Posted 11/6/2010 6:49:33 AM | message detail |
Ratchet also requires 8 games to be as strong as he is, Isaac only has the one. lol character/game comparison. --- BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls GotD Bracket: 29/34 Today's Matches: GS & GTA: SA |
charmander6000 | Posted 11/6/2010 6:51:27 AM | message detail |
I picked UYA to flop and GS to beat San Andreas and I still expected 63% to be the absolute highest GS could get here. Which is quite strange now that you take a step back. I mean when have R&C games looked not terrible? --- BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls GotD Bracket: 29/34 Today's Matches: GS & GTA: SA |
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/6/2010 6:52:34 AM | message detail |
I
don't know about UYA being stronger than Dead Space. I thought that
Isaac Clarke did alright in his one vote-in poll for being another FPS
silent protagonist. It got hammered in the GotY polls but that could've
been some form of SFF. --- DFF |
FFDragon | Posted 11/6/2010 6:52:42 AM | message detail |
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 11/6/2010 10:49:33 AM | #045 To be fair, he has the two. --- If you wake up at a different time, in a different place, could you wake up as a different person? [HERO'S PLUNGE] http://img.imgcake.com/wesker.gif |
FFDragon | Posted 11/6/2010 6:53:15 AM | message detail |
Unless you're making a GS + TLA is just one really long game lolololo joke in which case 'whoooooooooooooosh' --- If you wake up at a different time, in a different place, could you wake up as a different person? [HERO'S PLUNGE] http://img.imgcake.com/wesker.gif |
Ultimaphazon | Posted 11/6/2010 6:53:56 AM | message detail |
We
really should wait to se what San Andreas does before we claim that
it's doomed. For all we know, it could pull out something ridiculous
like 80%, and we'd all be saying how GS has no chance. If it fails to
get 60%, I fully approve of calling for its head, but until it does, we
should just wait and see. Also, fact is, so many of those games are unknowns, that we can't make any serious claims for round 2 based on the round 1 results. --- A pro isn't someone who sacrifices himself for his job. That's just a fool. - Reno, FFVII http://i25.tinypic.com/2cp5chf.jpg |