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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 939

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UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/5/2010 7:38:08 PM | message detail
Pokemon GSC > FFX!




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~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Solid Snake, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 11/5/2010 7:44:08 PM | message detail
Even without this match I'm wishing I picked GSC > FFX. I'm also wishing that I picked Half-Life 2 > Fallout 3, even though you can't be so sure that anything is pointing towards that match going either way, but HL2 will likely rally over the top if it gets there.

See, Freeman will get loads of support from his fans to negate Kratos's day power, after which he's free to deliver loads of Combine SMG shots to Samus or Amaterasu on way to surviving the nuclear apocalypse. Then he meets the Nintendo All-Star cast and gets shot down easily.

Man I can't wait to actually get to these next-gen games. I'm also likely playing through SSBM this summer in honor of its inevitable victory.
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Why did I pick Brawl to win the contest?
RustyMrSaturn | Posted 11/5/2010 7:53:28 PM | message detail
i was so close to picking GSC > FFX

i'm just hopping melee gets rollin'!

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Big Bob | Posted 11/5/2010 7:54:51 PM | message detail
Wind Waker > GSC!
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YoboD | Posted 11/5/2010 7:57:19 PM | message detail
GSC> Melee!

... I'll be quiet now.
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Time to wander around
Aimlessly
red sox 777 | Posted 11/5/2010 9:39:22 PM | message detail
I want to be the very best
Like no one ever was
To catch them is my real test
To pass them is my cause

MGS4, FFX
MGS and CT
Each game we shall ream
It's always been our dream

GSC!
It's you and me
I know it's my destiny
Pokemon!
Oh you're my best friend
In a world we must defend
Nintendo!
Our hearts so true
Our service will pull us through
You teach me and I'll serve you
Nintendo!

Gotta catch 'em all
Gotta catch 'em all

Every challenge along the way
With courage I will face
I will battle Seven one day
To claim my rightful place

Come with me the time is right
There's no better team
Square shall kneel before our might
FFVII, that's our dream

Nintendo!
Gotta catch 'em all
Gotta catch 'em all
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
pjbasis | Posted 11/5/2010 9:42:53 PM | message detail
At least you realize GSC could never beat OoT.
red sox 777 | Posted 11/5/2010 9:46:44 PM | message detail
Nintendo seeks power entirely for its own sake. We are not interested in the good of others; we are interested solely in power. Not wealth or luxury or long life or happiness: only power, pure power. What pure power means you will understand presently. We are different from Square, Capcom, Konami, even Microsoft and EA, in that we know what we are doing. All the others, even those who resembled ourselves, were cowards and hypocrites.

There will be no curiosity, no enjoyment of the process of life. All competing pleasures will be destroyed. But always— do not forget this, Snake— always there will be the intoxication of power, constantly increasing and constantly growing subtler. Always, at every moment, there will be the thrill of victory, the sensation of trampling on an enemy who is helpless. If you want a picture of the future, imagine a kokiri boot stamping on a human face— forever.

But it was all right, everything was all right, the struggle was finished. He had won the victory over himself. He loved Link.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
Not_Wylvane | Posted 11/6/2010 3:17:27 AM | message detail
More like Golden Sun > Final Fantasy X!
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_Panuru_ is a horrible user.
voltch | Posted 11/6/2010 3:18:39 AM | message detail
FFIX>FFX book it.
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Uguu~
Eeeevil Overlord | Posted 11/6/2010 3:18:49 AM | message detail
Wow, poor Leon :p.
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azuarc | Posted 11/6/2010 3:57:18 AM | message detail
"Man I can't wait to actually get to these next-gen games. I'm also likely playing through SSBM this summer in honor of its inevitable victory."

That's a ways off, nee?


Four hours left, but lookit the 70% for Golden Sun....out of 22k votes total. I'm wondering if ultimately nobody cares about this match and just went top option.
Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/6/2010 4:15:50 AM | message detail
Doubtful. Didn't happen for VC/Disgaea. It's just what happens when you take a fairly strong game and put it against a really weak one(suck it, Leon).
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voltch | Posted 11/6/2010 4:17:37 AM | message detail
I'm sure he'd say Up yours to the rest of us for loling at him.
but w/e you took digs at me for DMC3, well lolz Ratchet & Clank!
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Uguu~
Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/6/2010 4:25:13 AM | message detail
Awesome, red sox.

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I predict and analyse the Game of the Decade contest here:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56817040
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 11/6/2010 5:20:03 AM | message detail
My summer break begins in March. Sort of...
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Currently Playing: StarCraft, Zelda: Ocarina of Time
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/6/2010 6:04:42 AM | message detail
Golden Sun>FFX

Up Your Arsenal would double Viewtiful Joe RIGHT RIGHT

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DFF
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2010 6:06:35 AM | message detail

From: Eeeevil Overlord | #011
Wow, poor Leon :p.


Eh, R&C getting destroyed like this was always a good possibility. Again, like with No Mercy, I don't pull away the fanboy facade to let people know what I really think (My Battle Challenge has Golden Sun > UYA, FYI, because I had a decent streak going and knew UYA wasn't going to win).

In fact, I see this as a pretty similar correlation to POR/No Mercy. Golden Sun blowing out UYA doesn't mean it's the favorite to beat San Andreas. It just means UYA is weak. Dead Space probably beats UYA, so don't think San Andreas needs 70% or something today.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2010 6:08:01 AM | message detail
Also, UYA's doing quite a bit better with the day vote than it was at night, so don't automatically assume Golden Sun has an advantage just because it's a day match.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/6/2010 6:09:18 AM | message detail
We already knew that Golden Sun is more night-oriented than day oriented. It still has a better day vote than San Andreas, especially on the day Dark Dawn is going to be released.

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DFF
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2010 6:11:13 AM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #020
It still has a better day vote than San Andreas, especially on the day Dark Dawn is going to be released.


San Andreas didn't even have a bad day vote last time, which is odd considering it was in a match with God of War, Tales of Symphonia, and Oblivion.

Plus, 12 hour matches kill ASV trends anyway. The ASV only matters if the match is close to begin with.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/6/2010 6:12:23 AM | message detail
I'm sorry Leon, but if you don't think the match will be at least close after this, then I don't know what to tell you!

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DFF
Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/6/2010 6:13:45 AM | message detail
It's all relative. We've seen GTA blow it with the day once already...

Also remember, Dark Dawn comes out the day of that match. It's going to be strngest during the day for that reason-people will have bought the game and head here, which they could not do in a night match.

Also Dead Space's strength relative to UYA is hard to peg. GTA will need to do a lot better than Golden Sun is doing now to be a clear favourite, otherwise the match is up in the air.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/6/2010 6:13:56 AM | message detail
Leon, I don't understand why you won't give Golden Sun some credit here, it makes UYA look better, and UYA needs all the help it can get.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2010 6:14:44 AM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #022
I'm sorry Leon, but if you don't think the match will be at least close after this, then I don't know what to tell you!


It's like saying, "Sorry, if you don't think POR/DPP will be at least close after this, then I don't know what to tell you!"

Because UYA is probably down on that level, honestly, which is unfortunate.

And when I say "close," I mean like 51/49. If it's a 52.5/47.5 match going into the ASV, I think San Andreas would probably manage to hold on and win anyway.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2010 6:15:15 AM | message detail

From: ExThaNemesis | #024
Leon, I don't understand why you won't give Golden Sun some credit here, it makes UYA look better, and UYA needs all the help it can get.


Because I know how popular R&C is(n't) around here. Let's just be honest.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/6/2010 6:15:33 AM | message detail
Dude you think UYA is anywhere near as weak as No Mercy?

I'm sorry but that's ludicrous.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2010 6:16:11 AM | message detail

From: ExThaNemesis | #027
Dude you think UYA is anywhere near as weak as No Mercy?

I'm sorry but that's ludicrous.


Nah, Golden Sun probably beats POR easily.

But still, this says a lot more about UYA than it does about Golden Sun.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/6/2010 6:16:31 AM | message detail
I'm sorry, but comparing UYA to No Mercy is absolutely ridiculous. There are a variety of reasons for No Mercy to be as weak as it was, and none of them apply to Rachet and Clank. It really seems like you're reaching to protect your bracket here.

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DFF
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2010 6:19:31 AM | message detail
I don't really care one way or the other. I'd rather Golden Sun win, and winning the contest has never been a priority for me.

I'm just not giving Golden Sun the match because it got 70% on Ratchet & Clank. For one, we haven't even seen San Andreas's match yet.

And I didn't say UYA = No Mercy. I said it's the same kind of match. People aren't giving POR a shot at DPP because it got 72% even though DPP barely got 55% on Fusion because they know that match said more about No Mercy than it did about POR. This is the same. UYA would certainly beat No Mercy, I'm not saying anything of the sort.

But it's a similar situation.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/6/2010 6:19:50 AM | message detail
I won't say that I'm fully confident in Golden Sun at this point, but it has every factor going for it in the next match. I could give about four things going for it, and I'm struggling to see any advantages GTA has at this point.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2010 6:21:15 AM | message detail
Honestly, I'm going to reserve judgment on that one until we see San Andreas in action. If it gets high 50s-low 60s, then I'd give Golden Sun favorite status. If it puts up 65%+, I'd consider it a push. If it beats GS's percentage here, forget about it.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/6/2010 6:24:01 AM | message detail
The problems is estimates like those seem more like estimates you would make on a normal match. This is the day Dark Dawn is being released. Remember what happened the last time something similar happened?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3809
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3845

You can't even say "Well Golden Sun's release won't be nearly that big", because while it won't be as huge as a new Pokemon game releasing, we've already got proof that GameFAQs is pretty darn hyped for it.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3512

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DFF
tgs2 | Posted 11/6/2010 6:26:33 AM | message detail
I'd still give SA the advantage if it puts low 60s here. It's the more proven game so to speak. (that isn't saying much I know)
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/6/2010 6:26:35 AM | message detail
And I think it's pretty telling that Dark Dawn is #4 on the DS message boards despite still having three weeks until it comes out. The games above it are three Pokemon games. People are getting excited about this.

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DFF
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2010 6:32:30 AM | message detail
I think a little bit of Charizard's last two matches was a bandwagon effect. I mean, only 8.83% of the site's brackets had him getting there, so I wouldn't be surprised if he had a bit of a bandwagon at that point, something GS's not going to be able to get from just one match.

Not to say Dark Dawn will do nothing, but I don't think Charizard's last two matches were ALL HG/SS.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2010 6:33:30 AM | message detail
That is, 8.83% had the Zard getting to Bowser. Only 3.17% had him getting to Mario.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2010 6:37:24 AM | message detail
Oh right, yesterday's chart:

Time | Vesperia | Borderlands | Votes
0:05 | 46.11% | 53.89% | 681
1:00 | 44.88% | 55.12% | 6323
2:00 | 45.13% | 54.87% | 5513
3:00 | 44.33% | 55.67% | 4915
4:00 | 44.56% | 55.44% | 4955
5:00 | 44.29% | 55.71% | 4586
6:00 | 42.92% | 57.08% | 4378
7:00 | 43.56% | 56.44% | 4325
8:00 | 44.48% | 55.52% | 3829
9:00 | 47.96% | 55.78% | 3186
10:00 | 44.78% | 55.22% | 3024
11:00 | 45.34% | 54.66% | 2770
12:00 | 45.57% | 54.43% | 2451

Eh, pretty much 55/45 the whole way except for a couple of good hours by Borderlands in the ASV.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/6/2010 6:43:13 AM | message detail
Dark Dawn is likely to be the number one game on the site when it comes out. It's gonna get a lot of traffic, meaning the site will get a lot of Golden Sun fans.

Also I see nothing to say Dead Space is stronger than UYA. It got brutalised in the 2008 and 2009(Extraction) GotY polls about as badly, perhaps worse, than R&C normally does and Isaac Clarke looked OK in the vote-in poll but it was a weak field-and I certainly wouldn't have him near Ratchet.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2010 6:44:29 AM | message detail
Oh, Ratchet probably beats Isaac Clarke, but that doesn't mean much for UYA itself. Ratchet didn't become halfway decent until the PS3 games.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/6/2010 6:45:42 AM | message detail
This should be the match pic.

http://images1.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20101018184943/goldensun/images/f/fe/DDIsaac.png

Isaac's Beard would get 57%+ on OoT.

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DFF
transcience | Posted 11/6/2010 6:46:07 AM | message detail
if KP says Dark Dawn one more time, I'm going to scream. and the reason it's #4 on the boards is because it came out in Japan last week + the DS not getting new releases thanks to the impending 3DS. Golden Sun will win on its own merits, not some superboost. and it's got great merit based on this match.

you're not giving UYA enough credit, Leon. is it strong? no. is it much different than Dead Space? no. it might even be stronger. hell, it's probably stronger.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/6/2010 6:47:58 AM | message detail
There's also people arguing that without HG/SS Charizard would have still won over Bowser. Remember Kratos had huge hype for God of War III going in that match and Charizard easily went past him. I also find it quite funny if you think GS3 is going to boost GS has much as a new Pokemon game.

Also UYA had every reason to flop if you think about it, we just chose to ignore it.
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GotD Bracket: 29/34 Today's Matches: GS & GTA: SA
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/6/2010 6:49:00 AM | message detail
I picked UYA to flop and GS to beat San Andreas and I still expected 63% to be the absolute highest GS could get here.

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DFF
charmander6000 | Posted 11/6/2010 6:49:33 AM | message detail
Ratchet also requires 8 games to be as strong as he is, Isaac only has the one.

lol character/game comparison.
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GotD Bracket: 29/34 Today's Matches: GS & GTA: SA
charmander6000 | Posted 11/6/2010 6:51:27 AM | message detail
I picked UYA to flop and GS to beat San Andreas and I still expected 63% to be the absolute highest GS could get here.

Which is quite strange now that you take a step back. I mean when have R&C games looked not terrible?
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GotD Bracket: 29/34 Today's Matches: GS & GTA: SA
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/6/2010 6:52:34 AM | message detail
I don't know about UYA being stronger than Dead Space. I thought that Isaac Clarke did alright in his one vote-in poll for being another FPS silent protagonist. It got hammered in the GotY polls but that could've been some form of SFF.

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DFF
FFDragon | Posted 11/6/2010 6:52:42 AM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | Posted: 11/6/2010 10:49:33 AM | #045
Ratchet also requires 8 games to be as strong as he is, Isaac only has the one.


To be fair, he has the two.

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FFDragon | Posted 11/6/2010 6:53:15 AM | message detail
Unless you're making a GS + TLA is just one really long game lolololo joke in which case 'whoooooooooooooosh'
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Ultimaphazon | Posted 11/6/2010 6:53:56 AM | message detail
We really should wait to se what San Andreas does before we claim that it's doomed. For all we know, it could pull out something ridiculous like 80%, and we'd all be saying how GS has no chance. If it fails to get 60%, I fully approve of calling for its head, but until it does, we should just wait and see.

Also, fact is, so many of those games are unknowns, that we can't make any serious claims for round 2 based on the round 1 results.
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