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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 937

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NoDicePwn | Posted 11/4/2010 9:54:54 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4050

Also don't forget the vote in polls people love so much. Would we seriously not be taking the Sims to be tripled here?
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/4/2010 9:58:43 AM | message detail
Time for some extrapolation based off of vote-ins and two different games! Yeah!

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3472
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4050

If GoW=GoW2, then Dawn of Sorrow gets 23.11% on Kingdom Hearts II! So really this result proves that KH is so screwed

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DFF
voltch | Posted 11/4/2010 10:00:11 AM | message detail
but who thinks GoW=Gow2?
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/4/2010 10:00:51 AM | message detail
That's Gears of War, not God of War.

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DFF
azuarc | Posted 11/4/2010 10:15:17 AM | message detail
Perhaps just personal opinion, but G(ears)oW > GoW2. GoW2 didn't really do anything special, and wasn't in any particular way better than the original. I doubt it receives more support, or even equal support, compared to the first.
Greyfeld | Posted 11/4/2010 10:18:04 AM | message detail
So...

Thoughts on ToV/Borderlands? Since the match is tomorrow, I thought I'd get some more opinions on the match.
creativename | Posted 11/4/2010 10:29:33 AM | message detail
Earlier today I saw a commercial on ESPN for Goldeneye Wii.

WTF? Anyone heard of this?

From: NoDicePwn | #1209
Are people surprised by this result or something? This is a low tier franchise handheld game its facing. I'd be worried if it didn't triple it!


I'm not shocked, but you have to be impressed here, this is a good performance by any measure. A Castlevania game isn't going to be turbofodder. Kingdom Hearts kinda had a rep for not being able to blow stuff out too, so much for that.
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NoDicePwn | Posted 11/4/2010 10:31:32 AM | message detail
Well I'd say its actually a bit below my expectations.. I expected 77-78%. It might get closer to that once the ASV rolls around, though. And I don't see why a Castlevania game can't be turbofodder. It lost to the Sims in the vote in. Hell, it was close to Wii Sports.
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ShatteredElysium | Posted 11/4/2010 10:32:59 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4050

Also don't forget the vote in polls people love so much. Would we seriously not be taking the Sims to be tripled here?


How grim does that make things look for Viewtiful Joe against FFX when KH is doing this to a game which finished ahead of it. Granted lolvoteins and all that.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/4/2010 10:39:56 AM | message detail
Gears of War 2 is so screwed against Paper Mario.

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DFF
LOLContests | Posted 11/4/2010 11:18:37 AM | message detail
Gears of War 2 was regarded as better by most serious VG critics (it even became the first video game to be profiled in The New Yorker!), but it seems as if the casuals forgot it right away, and it wasn't even considered for any of the major VG end of the year awards.
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LOLContests | Posted 11/4/2010 11:23:38 AM | message detail
*Better than GoW1 that is.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/4/2010 11:27:54 AM | message detail
Just how are we feeling about P3 vs. Civ IV, anyway? The more I look at it, nothing from Civilization has really done well in any poll.

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DFF
transience | Posted 11/4/2010 11:29:06 AM | message detail
this is a pretty good performance, but it should be in the upper bounds of expected. I'm really surprised at the people who were expecting a result in the 60s. that would mean that Dawn of Sorrow would have a shot at Halo 2 if you assume the two are equal (and they are).

Goldeneye Wii is Goldeneye in name only, it's more like Call of Duty with the Bond license. it's supposed to be pretty good but it's a Wii shooter so no one will care.
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FFI3_Lightning | Posted 11/4/2010 11:33:04 AM | message detail

From: LOLContests | #261
Gears of War 2 was regarded as better by most serious VG critics (it even became the first video game to be profiled in The New Yorker!), but it seems as if the casuals forgot it right away, and it wasn't even considered for any of the major VG end of the year awards.


Gears 2 had horde mode which was genius and great SP but mp was ****. Gears 1 is a modern day classic.
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transience | Posted 11/4/2010 11:33:38 AM | message detail
anyway, it's a good time to bring up the fact that TP is far from untouchable against KH/KH2. yoblazer was talking about how Nintendo had been kicking ass this contest the other day. now it's time to see what Square can do. three days in a row, the three biggest Square games.
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xyzzy
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/4/2010 11:37:27 AM | message detail
Makes me feel better for having KH1 > 2.

Also, I worry more and more about my MGS4 > 3 pick.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/4/2010 11:38:13 AM | message detail

From: FFI3_Lightning | #265
Gears 1 is a modern day classic.


The MP was just as **** in Gears 1 as well...but with less weapons, characters, maps, modes, and inferior campaign mode.
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Greyfeld | Posted 11/4/2010 11:50:53 AM | message detail
Just how are we feeling about P3 vs. Civ IV, anyway? The more I look at it, nothing from Civilization has really done well in any poll.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3164
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2985

To be fair, P3 doesn't do too hot either. Also, it's a night match, which should favor Civ 4 a lot more than Persona.
LOLContests | Posted 11/4/2010 12:06:12 PM | message detail
Shouldn't Persona III be even worse than Persona IV, which looked pretty weak last contest? PC games aren't popular on GameFAQS, but Civ IV is really loved and should be able to avoid being fodder at least.
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NoDicePwn | Posted 11/4/2010 12:06:23 PM | message detail
First update of the ASV is 80%+

this is gonna get ugly
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creativename | Posted 11/4/2010 12:06:39 PM | message detail
The Civ 4 match is a toss-up between two of the weakest games in the bracket, IMO. Neither game deserves to win a match (speaking in terms of contest strength - not quality).

From: UltimaterializerX | #1307
Makes me feel better for having KH1 > 2.

Also, I worry more and more about my MGS4 > 3 pick.


I see a lot of people worrying about this, but as someone who *isn't* directly involved with the MGS fanbase or played any of the games, I just think that MGS4 has seemed to be ever so marginally stronger. It also seems to me that the game got more hype/love than MGS3, which people talked about being overlooked (due to MGS2's bad WOM), even when it came out. The main logic for MGS3 seems to be -

1) Titles earlier in the series have the advantage
2) LOL PS3 exclusives

I'd consider the second factor to be better logic than the first. Being earlier isn't necessarily an advantage. I think there's something to being an original in the series, but 3 vs. 4? I see no advantage there.

LOL PS3 exclusives however is a worrisome thought. But MGS4 seems to be the lone exception to this.

It probably just comes down to which game the core fanbase prefers. From what I've seen that's hard to call, they seem about equally liked. Perhaps someone more familiar with the fanbase can say more accurately.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/4/2010 12:26:57 PM | message detail
Yeah, if any game will be the exception to the "LOL PS3 exclusives" trend, it'll be MGS4. It already proved it had decent strength last time around, and the PS3 is more popular now than it was last contest. I'd love for MGS3 to win, but I'm not really seeing any convincing arguments aside from the "MGS4's time has come and gone" argument, which I kinda sorta buy. MGS3 and MGS4 seem to be trending in opposite directions. MGS3's the one game in the series that seems to be becoming more beloved as time goes by. I still don't think it'll win though.

And yeah, I really should've raised my Oracle prediction after seeing what KH2 did yesterday. I made all my percentage predictions pre-contest and haven't adjusted very many of them.

From: KamikazePotato | #263
Just how are we feeling about P3 vs. Civ IV, anyway? The more I look at it, nothing from Civilization has really done well in any poll.


...What has Persona 3 done in polls?

It does have the "It's the top option" factor in its favor though.
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voltch | Posted 11/4/2010 12:31:00 PM | message detail
top option factor=best.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/4/2010 12:35:33 PM | message detail
Last night's chart:

Time | MW2 | Dissidia | Votes
0:05 | 58.25% | 41.75% | 1030
1:00 | 58.24% | 41.76% | 7199
2:00 | 57.88% | 42.12% | 4528
3:00 | 57.16% | 42.84% | 3107
4:00 | 54.94% | 45.06% | 2417
5:00 | 53.18% | 46.82% | 2012
6:00 | 51.70% | 48.30% | 1909
7:00 | 52.78% | 47.22% | 2406
8:00 | 54.70% | 45.30% | 2704
9:00 | 57.73% | 42.27% | 3087
10:00 | 58.75% | 41.25% | 3292
11:00 | 57.07% | 42.93% | 3350
12:00 | 57.67% | 42.33% | 3232

Probably the most ridiculous percentage swings we've seen all contest. MW2 gets 57-59% for the first three and last four hours, but those five dead zone Euro-vote hours...Man.

Now just imagine what FFX is going to do during that dead zone against Nintendo.
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voltch | Posted 11/4/2010 1:21:05 PM | message detail
there we go, here's the rise we were expecting from KH.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/4/2010 1:25:43 PM | message detail
So...what are we expecting from FE vs. Tony Hawk 2 anyway? After POR got 70% on No Mercy, are we expecting another slaughter or what?
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WhiteLens | Posted 11/4/2010 1:29:22 PM | message detail

From: Greyfeld | #256
So...

Thoughts on ToV/Borderlands? Since the match is tomorrow, I thought I'd get some more opinions on the match.


I don't know where all did fear comes from, but honestly the only thing Vesperia has got for it is the Tales brand (which isn't very strong without the word 'Symphonia' attached to it) and it being one of the few JRPGs these gen that's actually seen as good.
It being an Xbox 360 exclusive (in America) might seem like something against it, but the 360 is the current gen console that's highly favored on this site, and this site is (or was) a predominate JRPG site.
So put 2 and 2 together and that might give Vesperia the edge.
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voltch | Posted 11/4/2010 1:30:57 PM | message detail
360 exclusivity ain't really helping that much though, this is the age of multiplatform.
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voltch | Posted 11/4/2010 1:31:58 PM | message detail
Isn't Path of Radiance supposed to be one of the weaker Fire emblems?
If so...eeek, 2 FE blowouts in a single contest? like....ewwwww.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/4/2010 1:36:15 PM | message detail
I'd consider the second factor to be better logic than the first. Being earlier isn't necessarily an advantage. I think there's something to being an original in the series, but 3 vs. 4? I see no advantage there.

LOL PS3 exclusives however is a worrisome thought. But MGS4 seems to be the lone exception to this.


If you want any idea of MGS4's strength, just look at this:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3507

Just slightly weaker than FFX.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/4/2010 1:39:50 PM | message detail

From: voltch | #280
Isn't Path of Radiance supposed to be one of the weaker Fire emblems?
If so...eeek, 2 FE blowouts in a single contest? like....ewwwww.


You shut your mouth, FE is awesome.
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abdou | Posted 11/4/2010 1:43:14 PM | message detail
FE7 is one of the best games ever. I hope it blows Tony Hawk even worse than POR did to No Mercy.
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medicority | Posted 11/4/2010 1:43:20 PM | message detail
I'm a huge castlevania fan since CV4, but honestly dawn of sorrow was just not that good.
voltch | Posted 11/4/2010 1:58:22 PM | message detail
it may not have been good, but it was failry hyped and well received, wouldn't have been too surprising to see it hit 30%.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/4/2010 2:01:36 PM | message detail
MGS3>4 is largely a B8 creation. 4 just looked straight up better last year. There are arguments for 3, but it wouldn't be talked about nearly as much if B8 wasn't nuts about 3.

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charmander6000 | Posted 11/4/2010 2:03:43 PM | message detail
I agree, same with MM > WW.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/4/2010 2:04:20 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #286
MGS3>4 is largely a B8 creation. 4 just looked straight up better last year. There are arguments for 3, but it wouldn't be talked about nearly as much if B8 wasn't nuts about 3.


Really, it's more a stats topic creation than anything else. MGS4 has 70% support in the Guru. Hmmm...It's about the same percentage G/S/C has vs. Majora's Mask, too.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/4/2010 2:05:38 PM | message detail
77.70% hour for KH there.

Dat ASV, watch out, TP!
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transients | Posted 11/4/2010 2:09:22 PM | message detail
good thing TP has a good ASV too. I doubt KH is much better than Zelda, if at all.
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xyzzy
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/4/2010 2:09:51 PM | message detail

From: transients | #290
good thing TP has a good ASV too. I doubt KH is much better than Zelda, if at all.


We already saw KH2 vs. TP last year, KH2 did a good bit better!
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transients | Posted 11/4/2010 2:11:26 PM | message detail
did it? well that's because KH sucks so bad at night!

I don't think a 12 hour day vote is indicative of a 24 hour one. there's a lot more night votes mixed in.
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xyzzy
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/4/2010 2:12:29 PM | message detail
I agree that a 12 hour match dilutes the ASV a bit because things like Nintendo and Kingdom Hearts don't have to get slaughtered by Europe as much. We've really yet to see a massive ASV swing in a 12 hour match.
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 11/4/2010 2:15:35 PM | message detail
Didn't we end up not having nearly as many of the big vote swings in 2010 that we expected in certain matches? Excluding rallying matches like Missingno's fare, of course.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/4/2010 2:37:28 PM | message detail
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voltch | Posted 11/4/2010 2:38:34 PM | message detail
sooo which KH could you see doing best vs TP?
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transients | Posted 11/4/2010 2:39:55 PM | message detail
they're the same.
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Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 11/4/2010 2:40:45 PM | message detail
10% difference in votes between MW 2 and Dissidia in some hours?Man if it was a little more popular it would had won...
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Justin_Crossing | Posted 11/4/2010 2:40:48 PM | message detail

From: transients | #297
they're the same.


basically
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/4/2010 2:42:04 PM | message detail
Yeah, there were very few big comebacks last year. I think the day/night setup had something to do with it, because a lot of times the big comebacks involve a strong night character/game building up a big lead overnight and a strong day character/game using the ASV to make a comeback. I think our biggest comeback was Sephy/Missingno, and that was only a 600 vote lead that got turned around.

Actually, Red/Ocelot probably had the biggest swing. Ocelot came back from a 666 vote lead and maxed out at a 379 vote lead before Red came back and won by 182.
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