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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 936

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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/2/2010 9:13:46 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4073
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4076

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4048


Did you guys just forget that Ninja Gaiden was in that poll too or something?

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DFF
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/2/2010 9:16:45 PM | message detail
Bioshock is looking like it would take UC2 so easily. Bioshock was also around Halo 3 levels in 2009. Halo 1 might be a notch above Halo 3. Uncharted/Halo is a day match. Uncharted is in some big trouble.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/2/2010 9:17:21 PM | message detail
UC2 > Halo 3 > Halo 1

Deal with it.
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I've seen things you people wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain.
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/2/2010 9:18:55 PM | message detail
Bioshock is looking like it would cream a lot of stuff. You guys also realize that this puts it far above Halo 1 and Metroid Prime based on results so far?

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DFF
red sox 777 | Posted 11/2/2010 9:18:58 PM | message detail
I'm getting kind of worried about MW2 > Dissidia. 2009 really is quite weak, it seems.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/2/2010 9:19:16 PM | message detail
Isn't that UC2/Halo match in the day? Yeah.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/2/2010 9:19:43 PM | message detail
Updated Top 5, for the first time DA/FZ was completely left out.

Top 5 Biggest Blowouts
1. Super Smash Bros. Melee – 87.16% vs. Guitar Hero II – 12.84% (R1) – 74.32%
2. Super Smash Bros. Brawl – 83.26% vs. Mario Kart DS – 16.74% (R1) – 66.52%
3. Fallout 3 – 81.00% vs. inFamous – 19.00% (R1) – 62.00%
4. LoZ: Twilight Princess – 79.38% vs. Shenmue – 20.62% (R1) – 58.76%
5. Super Mario Galaxy – 74.79% vs. Beyond Good & Evil – 25.21% (R1) – 49.58%

Top 5 Biggest Day Vote Gaps
1. Super Smash Bros. Brawl – 44460 vs. Mario Kart DS – 8936 (R1) – 35524
2. LoZ: Twilight Princess – 47034 vs. Shenmue – 12220 (R1) – 34814
3. Half-Life 2 – 35766 vs. Left 4 Dead 2 – 12254 (R1) – 23512
4. Okami – 35156 vs. No More Heroes – 14074 (R1) – 21082
5. Fire Emblem: PoR – 32822 vs. WWF No Mercy – 12937 (R1) – 19885

Top 5 Most Popular Day Polls
1. Team Fortress 2 vs. Fable (R1) – 61749
2. LoZ: Twilight Princess vs. Shenmue (R1) – 59254
3. Pokemon RSE vs. Grand Theft Auto IV (R1) – 59134
4. Street Fighter IV vs. Sonic Adventure 2 (R1) – 54154
5. Super Smash Bros. Brawl vs. Mario Kart DS (R1) – 53396

Top 5 Highest Individual Day Votes
1. LoZ: Twilight Princess (R1) – 47034

2. Super Smash Bros. Brawl (R1) – 44460
3. Half-Life 2 (R1) – 35766
4. Okami (R1) – 35156
5. Devil May Cry 3 (R1) – 33538

Top 5 Lowest Individual Day Votes
1. Mario Kart DS (R1) – 8936
2. Shenmue (R1) – 12220
3. Left 4 Dead 2 (R1) – 12254
4. WWF No Mercy (R1) – 12937
5. No More Heroes (R1) – 14074

Top 5 Easiest Matches to Predict
1. Fallout 3 vs. inFamous (R1) – 93.66%
2. Metroid Prime vs. Star Ocean 3 (R1) – 92.44%
3. Super Mario Galaxy vs. Beyond Good & Evil (R1) – 91.93%
4. LoZ: Twilight Princess vs. Shenmue (R1) – 91.61%
5. Super Smash Bros. Melee vs. Guitar Hero II (R1) – 90.66%

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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 23/28Today's Matches: BS & KH2
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/2/2010 9:20:10 PM | message detail
Bioshock is looking like it would cream a lot of stuff. You guys also realize that this puts it far above Halo 1 and Metroid Prime based on results so far?

Gamefaqs just can't get enough of this retro/sci fi stuff (Fallout and Bioshock)
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/2/2010 9:20:41 PM | message detail
Can someone please explain to me how this changes anything for Uncharted/Halo when we already saw Halo and Uncharted perform on opponents from the same vote-in.

I mean come on guys.

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DFF
Julian_Caesar | Posted 11/2/2010 9:20:53 PM | message detail
I hope this hasn't already been discussed ad nauseam, but im going to throw it out there anyway...what is the reliability of a mass poll like that, considering how unreliable it proved to be to use stats containing even a 4-way poll? Let alone 12? I'm asking legitimately, seeing as how it's being referenced a lot and I wouldn't consider myself familiar enough with contests to know how the vote-in polls have correlated in the past to actual performance...at least when using it for comparison the way it's being used here...

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Every day the rest of your life is changed forever.
Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 11/2/2010 9:24:34 PM | message detail
12 way polls aren't that accurate but games and characters that do well in the Vote-in are generally more likely to be strong that those that do poorly.
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"Let me believe what you've always believed! That living is wonderful!"
"Thank you so much... Thank you for loving me."
ZFS | Posted 11/2/2010 9:24:50 PM | message detail
I'm getting kind of worried about MW2 > Dissidia.

I look forward to this match. I've never seen people get so worried about a match for no reason.

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The whole object of travel is not to set foot on foreign land; it is at last to set foot on one's own country as a foreign land.
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/2/2010 9:24:53 PM | message detail
Here's something - based on the first 20 minutes, Bioshock is projected to beat Metroid Prime by 61.40%.

For reference, KH1 got 63.39% on MP last year.

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DFF
red sox 777 | Posted 11/2/2010 9:24:58 PM | message detail
I hope this hasn't already been discussed ad nauseam, but im going to throw it out there anyway...what is the reliability of a mass poll like that, considering how unreliable it proved to be to use stats containing even a 4-way poll? Let alone 12? I'm asking legitimately, seeing as how it's being referenced a lot and I wouldn't consider myself familiar enough with contests to know how the vote-in polls have correlated in the past to actual performance...at least when using it for comparison the way it's being used here...

For years before the last contest, we assumed that multi-way non-contest polls were basically useless in predicting contest matches. This changed when a number of the vote-in results held up surprisingly well in the contest. So I'd say, they are useful but you should understand when using them that they are prone to a lot of error.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
HaRRicH | Posted 11/2/2010 9:25:16 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/2/2010 9:25:34 PM | message detail
Is MGS4 the last PS3 exclusive in the bracket? That one should do really well against Assassin's Creed, but looking just at these Round 1 results, I have to give PS3 exclusives a 0/3.

inFamous - Crushed well beyond our expectations
Uncharted 2 - Underperformed by 5%, in huge trouble against Halo, might even be challenged by SFIV
Demon's Souls - Lost without putting up a fight
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Yoblazer: http://i38.tinypic.com/2s024p4.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/2/2010 9:26:44 PM | message detail
Valkyria Chronicles surely did well!

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I predict and analyse the Game of the Decade contest here:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56817040
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/2/2010 9:26:57 PM | message detail
Uncharted 2 did pretty much what was expected against LoD.

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DFF
GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/2/2010 9:26:59 PM | message detail
MW2/Dissidia will be another No Meryc/Path of Radiance
well probably not so lopsided, but MW2 will never be in trouble
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Oracle contest - 40th
Today's pick: Bioshock - 61.55% Status:
HaRRicH | Posted 11/2/2010 9:27:21 PM | message detail
I was feeling this Halo > Uncharted 2 talk that's coming from this match until KP's point came up. I've been behind Halo > Uncharted 2 in R3 since before the contest started, but it's hard to say Bioshock's success here is more important to their match than the vote-in comparison.

Also worth mentioning Bioshock 2 seemed to do a lot for Big Daddy.....
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Nominate Epona, please.
http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/2/2010 9:28:10 PM | message detail

From: Kotetsu534 | #267
Valkyria Chronicles surely did well!


Man, every day I think that game is on a different system. You guys are SURE it's not a PS1 RPG, right? >_>
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Yoblazer: http://i38.tinypic.com/2s024p4.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
HaRRicH | Posted 11/2/2010 9:30:37 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #263
Here's something - based on the first 20 minutes, Bioshock is projected to beat Metroid Prime by 61.40%.

For reference, KH1 got 63.39% on MP last year.


That's with Paper Mario in the poll, for the record...so KH2 better show up against Halo 2 if it doesn't want to look weak or even suffer a big-ass upset.
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EPONA EPONA Epona Epona Epona EPONA EPONA
Epona EPONA EPONA Epona EPONA EPONA Epona
ZFS | Posted 11/2/2010 9:30:44 PM | message detail
I'm not sure I'd say that Valkyria Chronicles did "well," necessarily. It won, but it also doesn't take much to equal Disgaea.

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The whole object of travel is not to set foot on foreign land; it is at last to set foot on one's own country as a foreign land.
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/2/2010 9:30:44 PM | message detail
Man, every day I think that game is on a different system. You guys are SURE it's not a PS1 RPG, right? >_>

Don't worry, I confuse it for Valkyria Profile sometimes as well
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/2/2010 9:31:02 PM | message detail
Based on their respective matches, Uncharted 2 beats Halo 1 by 50.22%.

There's a lot of factors to consider when looking at that (most especially it being a day match for Halo), and I'd give Halo 1 the advantage at the moment, but this match doesn't change anything. This match means a lot more for Bioshock than it does anything else.

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DFF
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/2/2010 9:32:01 PM | message detail

From: ZFS | #273
I'm not sure I'd say that Valkyria Chronicles did "well," necessarily. It won, but it also doesn't take much to equal Disgaea.


Let's give credit where credit is due. When 3/4 of the board picks against you, and you win, you did well.

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DFF
ZFS | Posted 11/2/2010 9:34:27 PM | message detail
I give credit where it's due -- and it's not particularly due there. I guess it might be if people thought VC was going to be well below Disgaea, but that was crazy to think in the first place. The board seems like they're pretty off this contest in general.

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There are no foreign lands. It is the traveler only who is foreign.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/2/2010 9:36:09 PM | message detail
I'm not even gonna argue with HM here; I think he's the only Board 8 kicking major butt in this contest. But HM, I'm pretty sure you don't have Melee, so I will be smiling by the end of things. =)
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Yoblazer: http://i38.tinypic.com/2s024p4.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/2/2010 9:44:59 PM | message detail
I'm surprised there isn't more talk about this. This result is pretty ridiculous, all things considered. Uncharted 2, Halo 1, and Metroid Prime's result against their opponents from that particular vote-in all lined up just fine. Arkham Asylum and Dragon Age did their best to prove that Uncharted 2 wasn't weak.

Then Bioshock comes along and has apparently gone from equivalent to Halo 3 to a slightly possible threat to Kingdom Hearts II. Where did this come from?

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DFF
HaRRicH | Posted 11/2/2010 9:48:51 PM | message detail
Yeah, if Bioshock is legit here and Battlefront 2 wasn't some vote-in wonder, KH2 better hope the KH-drop we saw in CB8 happened before BGE2 or only affected its characters.
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Epona: pulling off the "horse-face" better than Sarah Jessica Parker since 1998.
http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg
Gooper Blooper | Posted 11/2/2010 9:48:55 PM | message detail
Big Daddy gets stronger every contest confirmed

It's Kirby all over again oh god
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And then the car wash cost five dollars.
Pokemon Platinum: 1719 9497 5082 Pokemon HeartGold: 2966 0920 7723
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/2/2010 9:52:09 PM | message detail
A drop similar to what happened to Sora + being stuck in a night match might actually be enough for Bioshock to win.

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DFF
TheCodeisBosco | Posted 11/2/2010 10:03:15 PM | message detail
HOLY ****.

I knew we were in for a BioShock boost, but 68% against Battlefront II? Once again: holy ****. Kingdom Hearts II just became the underdog.

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CURRENT GOTY SCORE: 23
Beware of The Shock.
Justin_Crossing | Posted 11/2/2010 10:04:22 PM | message detail
what if battlefront isn't actually strong
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~Acting on Impulse~
TheCodeisBosco | Posted 11/2/2010 10:08:27 PM | message detail
Battlefront looked pretty good in the vote-ins, so I'd imagine it's at least a low midcarder.

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CURRENT GOTY SCORE: 23
Beware of The Shock.
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/2/2010 10:26:01 PM | message detail
all aboard the bioshock > kiddie hearts 2 train choo choo
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HaRRicH | Posted 11/2/2010 10:28:44 PM | message detail
It looked well enough in 2005's GotY-polls too in comparison to GoW and how it avenged its loss to MKDS in the vote-ins (LFF be damned), so it's not like it only had one decent fluke-performance before...though 2005 was a weak year outside of RE4 and nobody wanted to give LoD any credit for a long time.

Today's great for Bioshock, but we really gotta see KH2 before major upset-steam can pick up.
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"Support Epona because we've run out of good ideas." --Leonhart
http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg
Julian_Caesar | Posted 11/2/2010 10:30:34 PM | message detail

From: NoDicePwn | #196
all aboard the bioshock > kiddie hearts 2 train choo choo


i claim conductor spot :D

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Every day the rest of your life is changed forever.
HaRRicH | Posted 11/2/2010 10:42:52 PM | message detail
I'm pretty sure nintendogirl will cut you all for the conductor-position.
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http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg
http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg
Justin_Crossing | Posted 11/2/2010 10:48:48 PM | message detail
What's your guys' current potential battle points? I'm at 6600 or so.
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~Acting on Impulse~
GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/2/2010 10:49:30 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/57005033
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Oracle contest - 40th
Today's pick: Bioshock - 61.55% Status: poopoo
transience | Posted 11/2/2010 11:46:54 PM | message detail
I'm getting kind of worried about MW2 > Dissidia. 2009 really is quite weak, it seems.

you are aware that Dissidia is 2009, right?

that LOD/NG/Battlefront/Mario Kart DS vote-in poll has gotten so much attention for tons of different reasons. we're really drawing a lot of conclusions based on it and it's getting a little bit dangerous, I think.

Halo vs. Uncharted 2 is definitely going to be fun. edge to Halo so far, I think, but Ninja Gaiden is not exactly top competition.
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xyzzy
ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/2/2010 11:48:05 PM | message detail
KH2 is still going to beat Bioshock you all need to calm the **** down.
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Justin_Crossing | Posted 11/2/2010 11:48:10 PM | message detail
ignoring x-stats all logic points to uncharted losing that
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~Acting on Impulse~
ZFS | Posted 11/2/2010 11:51:37 PM | message detail
I'd be pretty surprised if Uncharted was ever threatening to win that one, myself.

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A journey of a thousand miles must begin with a single step.
Justin_Crossing | Posted 11/2/2010 11:57:25 PM | message detail
ALSO

i am still wondering why allen put in 8 games from vote-in day 2 and only four from the first and third.

the hell
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~Acting on Impulse~
redrocket | Posted 11/3/2010 4:26:03 AM | message detail
I have Uncharted > Sunshine in that match.

...

lol

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From his looks Magus is Macho Man Randy Savage as an anime zombie. The black wind howls, and one of you will snap into a Slim Jim ooh yeeeah! -sonicblastpunch
nintendogirl1 | Posted 11/3/2010 4:37:24 AM | message detail
nintendogirl1 | Posted 10/5/2010 12:37:13 PM
(3) BioShock
(14) SW Battlefront II

(6) Kingdom Hearts II
(11) Halo 2

(7) Modern Warfare 2
(10) Dissidia

(2) Kingdom Hearts
(15) Castlevania: Dawn

If I take BioShock over KH2, I have to take it over KH1 as well!


nintendogirl1 | Posted 10/7/2010 11:29:48 AM
I also want it on the record that BioShock is totally going to the Division Final.


nintendogirl1 | Posted 10/7/2010 12:09:17 PM
From: TheKoolAidShoto | #083

Bioshock has night match with Kingdom Hearts 2. I say that's your best shot for upset train, ngirl

I don't need a train, I'm taking this one down in style.

Solo in an Aston.


As HaRR very accurately put it. I will cut you for dreaming that you could conduct a BioShock train anywhere.
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The nerve of some people.
Ultimaphazon | Posted 11/3/2010 4:50:46 AM | message detail
ALSO

i am still wondering why allen put in 8 games from vote-in day 2 and only four from the first and third.

the hell


Bacon chose the 24 (?) games that had the most votes across all the polls. Polls 1 and 3 had some real powerhouses that sucked up the votes, thus leaving less votes for the other games, while poll 2 lacked any real powerhouses, and many games were able to get the 4500ish votes needed to make the cut.
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A pro isn't someone who sacrifices himself for his job. That's just a fool. - Reno, FFVII
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voltch | Posted 11/3/2010 5:20:56 AM | message detail
Watching Ngirl weep as Bioshock gets murdered by girly boys will be a nice sight.
Not like having Extha lose it once Sephiroth getting killed by Snake, but still.
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mii~