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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 936

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NoDicePwn | Posted 11/2/2010 12:24:20 PM | message detail
dat asv
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HaRRicH | Posted 11/2/2010 12:30:35 PM | message detail
One-on-ones don't magically turn doublings into losses in less than a year under any circumstance I can think of, and it's not like F-Zero is a bottom-five kind of game. Weak, sure -- that's why DA:O doubled it -- but it's got fans here. Besides, how much could DA:O SFF DS if DS lost to MM9 and was tripled by Uncharted 2 here:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3718

Throw in that Borderlands had more expansion-packs this year and some sweet deals on Steam this year while Gearbox has become a rising star of a company in the past year between Borderlands and reviving Duke Nukem Forever, too. Borderlands should be legit; this should likely be a battle of ToV proving itself more than Borderlands proving itself.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/2/2010 12:39:24 PM | message detail
Looks like we'll be getting ASV trends after all.

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NoDicePwn | Posted 11/2/2010 12:40:26 PM | message detail
Looks like we'll be getting ASV trends after all.

If you call gaining .10% in 40 minutes significant ASV trends. Its just the Canada ASV, which favors zelda by like 85%. Its going to be a very tame ASV overall.
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Ultimaphazon | Posted 11/2/2010 12:48:29 PM | message detail
TP will really benefit from Europe going to bed, though we're still a few hours away from that happening. Shenmue has 30% here, so there's a fairly large difference between Europe and the rest of the world here.
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NoDicePwn | Posted 11/2/2010 12:55:41 PM | message detail
TP is now lower in % then it was at 3 PM. This is the kind of ASV I like.
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Greyfeld | Posted 11/2/2010 1:11:04 PM | message detail
One-on-ones don't magically turn doublings into losses in less than a year under any circumstance I can think of

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Deus_Ex_vs_Final_Fantasy_Tactics_vs_Metal_Gear_Solid_vs_Pok%C3%A9mon_Gold/Silver_2009
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Metal_Gear_Solid_vs_Pokemon_Red/Blue/Yellow_vs_Majora%27s_Mask_vs_Pokemon_Gold/Silver_2009

I'm saying that numbers can fluctuate drastically, depending on how much games SFF each other. Considering Demon's Souls is a WRPG-styled game, and DAO is a WRPG, while Borderlands is mostly a shooter with a bad inventory system, it seems to me like DS had a large number of votes sapped by DAO. Which means that even if Borderlands is stronger than DS, it's probably not by nearly as much as that poll would lead most to believe.
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/2/2010 1:18:46 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #020
Also, whiners are out in full force today.


An old classic getting beaten by a Zelda game tends to do that.

And people don't hate TP or Brawl nearly as much as Board 8 does, so we've got to get over this idea that TP isn't strong or something.

Quick: Shenmue vs. BG&E, who you got?

Gimme Shenmue.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/2/2010 1:19:21 PM | message detail

From: NoDicePwn | #054
Looks like we'll be getting ASV trends after all.

If you call gaining .10% in 40 minutes significant ASV trends. Its just the Canada ASV, which favors zelda by like 85%. Its going to be a very tame ASV overall.


You do realize how difficult it is to gain percentage when you're at nearly 80%, right?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/2/2010 1:24:12 PM | message detail
Chart from yesterday:

Time | R/S/E | GTAIV | Votes
0:05 | 54.23% | 45.77% | 638
1:00 | 48.62% | 51.38% | 6719
2:00 | 49.05% | 50.95% | 5623
3:00 | 49.44% | 50.56% | 5597
4:00 | 51.45% | 48.55% | 5887
5:00 | 53.08% | 46.92% | 5861
6:00 | 51.60% | 48.40% | 5426
7:00 | 51.13% | 48.87% | 5423
8:00 | 52.69% | 47.31% | 4817
9:00 | 52.23% | 47.77% | 4040
10:00 | 50.97% | 49.03% | 3590
11:00 | 49.67% | 50.33% | 3203
12:00 | 49.08% | 50.92% | 2948

GTA wins the first three and the last two hours, but that Pokemon ASV was just too much.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/2/2010 1:29:12 PM | message detail
Also, I'm not sure why anyone (Okay, just Albion, so I shouldn't even bother addressing this) brought up that poll asking which game you'd like to see ported to a modern console because it means nothing of indicative strength. I'm pretty sure I voted for Shenmue in that poll because I've never played it and would like to, and I've already beaten the Sonic Adventure games.
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HaRRicH | Posted 11/2/2010 1:32:33 PM | message detail
The GS-example is different for a number of reasons:

1) WRPG-SFF/LFF is hardly proven while Nintendo-SFF is the most easily proven (and lethal) SFF/LFF out there.
2) GS had to be SFF'd by RBY and LFF'd by LoZ:MM, and MGS still didn't double GS. Since MGS was beating GS before that trio started hurting each other, that's even less likely for this scenario where DS goes from being doubled by Borderlands to winning.
3) Your last post ignores my points that DS was tripled by Uncharted 2 and lost to MM9. It's hard to say Borderlands allows either of those situations, and you can't blame potential WRPG-SFF there. DS is proven to be weak. Borderlands isn't.


Again, Borderlands looks pretty legit. If ToV wins, it should be because of its surprise-strength, probably not because Borderlands lays an egg.
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transients | Posted 11/2/2010 1:37:35 PM | message detail
I won't be surprised if Tales wins. people at least know the Tales franchise; Borderlands is a lesser known new IP. I don't trust the people of GameFAQs to be too knowledgeable on FPS games, even if they do have RPG elements.

Borderlands is definitely the fave, but I wouldn't say anything conclusively.
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NoDicePwn | Posted 11/2/2010 1:38:00 PM | message detail
You do realize how difficult it is to gain percentage when you're at nearly 80%, right?

Doesn't mean you shouldn't be going up in % during the ASV if its Zelda facing an old cult game from the Dreamcast. People were calling for Zelda to easily get 80% after the ASV was done with. It just further proves that there is no ASV today cuz kids didnt have school.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/2/2010 1:38:02 PM | message detail
I don't pick anything Tales that isn't Symphonia to win anything. Yuri Lowell looked like bottom feeding fodder last contest, and Lloyd and Kratos are at least decent fodder.

Claptrap vs. Yuri Lowell: Who you got?
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HaRRicH | Posted 11/2/2010 1:38:57 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #061
Also, I'm not sure why anyone (Okay, just Albion, so I shouldn't even bother addressing this) brought up that poll asking which game you'd like to see ported to a modern console because it means nothing of indicative strength. I'm pretty sure I voted for Shenmue in that poll because I've never played it and would like to, and I've already beaten the Sonic Adventure games.


I brought it up instead of Albion, and generally I agree, but SA2 ended up losing to SF4 so I question like crazy just how many people here really played the SA-games.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/2/2010 1:39:55 PM | message detail

From: NoDicePwn | #064
Doesn't mean you shouldn't be going up in % during the ASV if its Zelda facing an old cult game from the Dreamcast. People were calling for Zelda to easily get 80% after the ASV was done with.


ASV has always been diluted in 12 hour matches because there's no Euro night vote.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/2/2010 1:40:37 PM | message detail

From: HaRRicH | #066
I brought it up instead of Albion, and generally I agree, but SA2 ended up losing to SF4 so I question like crazy just how many people here really played the SA-games.


Shadow looks stronger than Tails and about as strong as Knuckles, so I'd imagine a decent number of people did.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/2/2010 1:42:09 PM | message detail
But really, those aren't popularity polls. It's about as valid as that "Which character do you want to see in Brawl?" poll where Sonic nearly beat Cloud. People wanted Sonic in because of his pseudo-rivalry with Mario, not because people like him better than Cloud (which we know isn't the case by a long shot), so either way, it's a pretty pointless poll to bring up.

Regardless, I wouldn't expect SA2 to beat Shenmue by a whole lot anyway because it's still a pretty weak game.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/2/2010 1:46:53 PM | message detail
Night match chart:

Time | Dragon Age | F-Zero GX | Votes
0:05 | 66.10% | 33.90% | 1118
1:00 | 67.99% | 32.01% | 7385
2:00 | 70.45% | 29.55% | 4203
3:00 | 68.16% | 31.84% | 2798
4:00 | 69.54% | 30.46% | 2219
5:00 | 68.93% | 31.07% | 1912
6:00 | 69.11% | 30.89% | 1664
7:00 | 68.55% | 31.45% | 2035
8:00 | 69.29% | 30.71% | 2423
9:00 | 70.43% | 29.57% | 2851
10:00 | 70.75% | 29.25% | 3186
11:00 | 69.92% | 30.08% | 3215
12:00 | 68.33% | 31.67% | 3050

Dragon Age whips F-Zero from start to finish. Not much in the way of percentage shifts here.
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 11/2/2010 1:53:25 PM | message detail
lol Wii deboost.
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Greyfeld | Posted 11/2/2010 2:00:13 PM | message detail
Again, Borderlands looks pretty legit. If ToV wins, it should be because of its surprise-strength, probably not because Borderlands lays an egg.

I gotta be honest, I'm scared to death of a relatively unknown like Borderlands (I say relatively, because Claptrap laid an egg in the last contest) going up against a JRPG from a respected series. Sure, it's not ToS, but I'd call shenanigans on anybody who claimed not to be concerned, just like I would anybody who isn't afraid of Dead Rising/TWEWY.
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/2/2010 2:03:59 PM | message detail
I gotta be honest, I'm scared to death of a relatively unknown like Borderlands (I say relatively, because Claptrap laid an egg in the last contest) going up against a JRPG from a respected series.

ib4turtle
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pjbasis | Posted 11/2/2010 2:04:15 PM | message detail
Dissidia > MW2 CONFIRMED


Can't wait to say this.
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/2/2010 2:05:16 PM | message detail

From: pjbasis | #074
Dissidia > MW2 CONFIRMED


Can't wait to say this.


I'm not sure when you're going to get the chance.

Also, 79.5% hour for TP there. Good enough?
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TheCodeisBosco | Posted 11/2/2010 2:13:06 PM | message detail
Regarding Vesperia/Borderlands: personally, I'm pretty confident that Borderlands will pull through. Tales of the Abyss looked like complete garbage in the vote-ins, and I'm not convinced that Vesperia is a whole lot stronger... if it even is stronger at all. In addition, Borderlands has done a bloody good job of staying relevant thanks to frequent DLC releases, and it came surprisingly close to Dragon Age: Origins in this poll:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3724

That's certainly more impressive than anything Vesperia's done. I'm not saying Borderlands is a lock, because it isn't; but I definitely think that Vesperia has an uphill battle.

Claptrap laid an egg in the last contest

Claptrap actually did better than most people expected. A lot of people were expecting him to be on par with Jade Curtiss and the like, but he got nearly 36% of the vote against Zidane in a night match; not a turbo-fodder performance by any means.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/2/2010 2:16:45 PM | message detail
I think Vesperia is probably stronger than Tales of the Abyss, but it won't be nearly as strong as Symphonia, which it would probably need to be close to in order to win this match.

Also, TP has gained .15% in the last 15 minutes.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/2/2010 2:24:55 PM | message detail
delayed ASV eh?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/2/2010 2:25:20 PM | message detail
More like the AVV today
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/2/2010 2:28:01 PM | message detail
How long does it take to vote in the US, I guess you have all of those props to go through.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/2/2010 2:28:47 PM | message detail
It just depends on where you are. I live in a small town, so I can get in and out in like 15 minutes tops.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/2/2010 2:34:01 PM | message detail
79% breached.
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FFI3_Lightning | Posted 11/2/2010 2:36:05 PM | message detail
Damn..two games in my top 5 games this gen Borderlands and VEsperia going head to head. Head says Borderlands, heart says Vesperia. I got Vesperia>Borderlands in my bracket. Only because i think the anime/JRPG bum loving emos will go for Vesperia.

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xp1337 | Posted 11/2/2010 2:39:44 PM | message detail
*Hasn't been around since the last few hours of RSE/GTA4, except to quickly vote in the Dragon Age match*

...XD at RSE's prediction percentage.

Is that Top 10 for lowest R1 percentage, or is my memory of that list really outdated?
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transients | Posted 11/2/2010 2:49:44 PM | message detail
I think Sub-Zero still holds the record. that's up there though.
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LOLContests | Posted 11/2/2010 2:53:20 PM | message detail
I still can't believe that Felix had more backers than Sub-Zero.

I guess Xbox was still kind of a joke on the site at that point.
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HaRRicH | Posted 11/2/2010 2:56:03 PM | message detail
Being a black Sonic with his own multi-platform game makes me cautious about giving the SA-series that kind of playership, even before Shadow got his own game...but fair enough. Still, I really doubt SA2-playership is any higher than it was in 2001, when the Dreamcast was still relevant:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=767

Shenmue beat it in its hey-day, which was seen as pretty cult even back then, while Phantasy Star Online won the poll back when online gaming on consoles had hardly caught on. Here's an idea for PSO's play-rate in 2002 before it got a Gamecube-port:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=908

Here's another poll to make WoW feel better about itself:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1165

Now that PSO's play-rate is somewhat-established back when the Dreamcast was big, here's PSO and SA2:B in a battle of Gamecube-ports:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1128


PSO beat SA2 on both systems, easily, back when they mattered most, and we know PSO's play-rate wasn't high. Again, Shenmue was pretty cult as well, and it beat SA2 too. All of this happened at least seven years ago, so time isn't doing them any favors in general either...

...but SA2 has the brand-name. That remake-poll was what convinced me nearly none of those games have been played any more; SA2 took the backseat to those two games according to everything we had previously seen AND the reputation Sonic has gotten this past decade for its 3D-games has been increasingly bad, but people had at least heard of Sonic. SA2 overturning its losses to those two games tells me all of their playership-levels are BAD...

...and SF4 helps to confirm that. I've been a proponent of SSF4 helping SF4, but SF4 is still really weak and also had documented low playership:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3397

Aside from SA2, its only other "victory" is a seven-vote win over Persona 4...whose low playership goes without saying.


So, no confidence many people here played SA2. I'm cool with the remake-poll being discredited in terms of perfectly detailing contest-like comparisons (though I'm with you that SA2 doesn't beat Shenmue by much), but I don't think SA2 under-performed there due to many people here nowadays playing the SA-games -- I'd rather believe SA2 over-performed due to few people here nowadays playing any of the Dreamcast-games. If there had been any other series represented in that remake-poll of any current worth, SA2 would have been likely easily beaten. Instead, with a series-advantage like this:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3997

SA2 got the benefit of the doubt and took it home. Just the way of the Dreamcast-library, I guess.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/2/2010 2:59:37 PM | message detail
Nintendo's top guns in this contest are now 3/3 in impressive R1 showings. We haven't even seen the KH games at work, but I've been losing all worry about them actually challenging Zelda. In fact, I've started to wonder about Zelda possibly having a shot at Brawl if they meet. The Melee fanatics will not be too happy with Brawl at that point, and that alone could help move the scales.

Let's remember that TP didn't do that badly against Brawl (46.35%) in 2009, and that was a match where Brawl was battling for first and may have been slightly inflated.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/2/2010 2:59:52 PM | message detail

From: HaRRicH | #087
Being a black Sonic with his own multi-platform game


Shadow's game is probably the main reason why he sucks now compared to what he was in 2003 and 2004. People liked him after SA2. When they started milking him, people started liking him less.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/2/2010 3:01:07 PM | message detail
Sorry, Twilight Princess scored 46.4% on Brawl. It scored 46.35% on MGS4.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/2/2010 3:01:49 PM | message detail
Eh, I'd be kinda surprised if TP could beat Brawl. I mean, it won't get killed, but Brawl is pretty clearly the top dog unless you think "revenge voting" will actually be a significant factor.
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/2/2010 3:03:14 PM | message detail
Let's remember that TP didn't do that badly against Brawl (46.35%) in 2009, and that was a match where Brawl was battling for first and may have been slightly inflated.

Oh yes. I might have gone with that upset pick if it weren't for Link looking so bad in 2010. Hopefully it turns out that just reflects badly on Brawl too!
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transients | Posted 11/2/2010 3:03:27 PM | message detail
Nintendo's top guns may be 3/3 but Square's top guns are 0/0. let's wait before saying anything too crazy.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/2/2010 3:04:47 PM | message detail
80.63% hour for TP there.
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HaRRicH | Posted 11/2/2010 3:10:39 PM | message detail

From: transients | #093
Nintendo's top guns may be 3/3 but Square's top guns are 0/0. let's wait before saying anything too crazy.


Square's gonna wish they stayed 0/0 by the time Nintendo's done with it!
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transients | Posted 11/2/2010 3:11:50 PM | message detail
also, Nintendo is made for big blowouts. Smash or Zelda is a lot more universally liked than Final Fantasy. I'd like to see these games against a notable opponent before saying anything - Guitar Hero, Mario Kart DS and Shenmue isn't telling me very much at all.
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xyzzy
red sox 777 | Posted 11/2/2010 3:12:05 PM | message detail
I'm not expecting much out of the Kingdom Hearts games after what happened to Sora last contest. FFX could still win this contest though.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/2/2010 3:13:46 PM | message detail

From: HaRRicH | #095

From: transients | #093
Nintendo's top guns may be 3/3 but Square's top guns are 0/0. let's wait before saying anything too crazy.
Square's gonna wish they stayed 0/0 by the time Nintendo's done with it!


Considering FFX gon' win, I find this hard to believe!

In fact, it seems that the number of Square vs. Nintendo matchups in this contest might be pretty low. Let's see...

TP vs. KH1/2
FFX vs. Golden Sun (maybe)
Majora vs. Chrono Cross (maybe)
FFX vs. GSC (maybe)
FFX vs. Melee/Brawl

So yeah, we're looking at potentially only two the entire contest, although some of those are more likely to happen than others.
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/2/2010 3:17:55 PM | message detail
That's not good- Nintendo vs. Square matches are by far the best kind of matches. We may be in for a dull contest with so few of them.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/2/2010 3:19:40 PM | message detail
Well, it's been a pretty interesting contest so far without them, although I do agree that I enjoy high profile matches. I was actually thinking today that I almost wish Wind Waker had beaten StarCraft so we could've gotten WW/Melee (or preferably that FFX beat Melee so we could've gotten FFX/Wind Waker). Underdog runs are nice, but I like seeing matches between the big dogs, personally.
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