GameFAQs Contests

Looks like there is another rally on /vp/ again. I suspected that when R/S/E spiked from 205 votes to 268 votes on the last update.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!

The problem is that we didn't know Metroid Fusion's strength, or RSE's strength in relation to DPP. Today's result is not surprising- it could have gone either way.

You're absolutely right, of course. My statements were speaking under the assumption that RSE is weaker than DPP, and Fusion is one of the weaker Metroid games (the assumptions most pro-GTA voters were working under).

From: Biolizard28 | #189
You seem to be implying that because something HASN'T happened yet, it can't.

Or maybe you're just arguing the technical usage of terms, I don't know.

Well, we've had about 1000 contest matches over the span of 8 years. If it hasn't happened yet, when's it going to happen?

From: Greyfeld | #196
The only way to explain the results is if GTA was weaker than expected, or RSE was stronger than expected. If GTA isn't weaker than expected, that means the only logical conclusion is that RSE was stronger than expected. And since our measure for RSE's strength is based on DPP's match against Fusion, it's only logical to conclude that DPP's weak performance is due to losing votes to another Nintendo handheld game.

I don't know if I'm just using the terms wrong (I never really understood what LFF meant, exactly), but unless we assume GTA is simply underperforming, there is no other logical explanation for the current voting trends.

The logical conclusion is that Fusion was just stronger than expected. There's really no funny business there.
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"

The logical conclusion is that Fusion was just stronger than expected. There's really no funny business there.

See my above post.

In any case, thoughts on ToV/Borderlands?

Don't bet on Tales games that aren't Symphonia.
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Support Otacon (Metal Gear Solid) for Character Battle IX!
http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/1950/banner4otacon.jpg

The only thing we can base those two off is their GOTY performance..Borderlands did a lot beter but that is irrelevant. Either way neither game wins by more than 53%.
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http://i98.photobucket.com/albums/l271/Mithos_2006/Ayaneff13.png

From: Greyfeld | #198
So, after today's match, we'll have a string of boring matches until ToV/Borderlands. Thoughts?

I'm pretty excited for that night match between MW2 and Dissidia. Nothing will likely come of it, but there should be more anticipation for that than anything else left in this division.
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Yoblazer: http://8board.webs.com/ariel.jpg
Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world!

Votals for the polls have been way down for the last few months. That apparently carried over to the contest polls.

Yeah. A while back, I did monthly vote total averages. Here are the monthly vote total averages for each month:

March - 88564.60
April - 82946.23
May - 76946.97
June - 77733.93
July - 72983.84
August - 69064.42
September - 63369.67
October - 61422.37

That's the average vote total per poll and does not include any contest matches. March only had 10 regular polls after the last contest ended. October had 19 regular polls before this contest started.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!

The next matches are reasonably interesting. Will Dragon Age win with 53%? 73%? Hmm.

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"I skate when I want to!"
-Benjamin Franklin (http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=264)

has there been a similar votals slump in recent times? because the boards seem as active as ever and I don't see why would the site decrease in popularity all of the sudden
...

Dragon Age should kill. I heard some whispers of F-Zero support and was shocked (SHOCKED). That is not a good upset.
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg
Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world!

Yeah, I'd be pretty surprised if F-Zero came anywhere close to beating Dragon Age. That's about as close as it gets to cult when it comes to a Nintendo series. It got completely overshadowed by Mario Kart among the Nintendo fanbase. Captain Falcon being in the match pic may help out a bit, but still, it shouldn't be close.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

Dragon Age should get 60% or so, I'd think. It went about even with Assassins Creed 2 and Batman last goty contest, so its not like its weak.

Also, I have this weird feeling GTA is gonna make things interesting in the final few hours. I don't know, its just a hunch.
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http://i.neoseeker.com/ca/fallout_new_vegas_conceptart_7XvFK.jpg

60%? I'm thinking it takes the doubling. F-Zero is bound to be incredibly weak.
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Yoblazer: http://i32.tinypic.com/zlf1w7.gif
Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world!

Looking at Alexa, it seems like overall GameFAQs traffic is down this year.

http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/gamefaqs.com
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All the stars in the sky are waiting for you.

Dragon Age rocked NSMBWii, and NSMBWii would rock F-Zero.
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http://img.imgcake.com/leonpngpe.png
http://img.imgcake.com/squalloweenpngem.png

If Dragon Age gets less than 65% I'd consider its performance a disappointment
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Oracle contest - 42nd
Today's pick: GTAIV - 51.13% Status: I ****ing hate this contest

yesss, get in pokemon!
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Nipaa~

If Dragon Age gets less than 65% I'd consider its performance a disappointment

That's going too far. F-Zero is a longtime Nintendo franchise and Falcon is a popular character in the SSB series. "Falcon Punch" is one of the most famous memes to ever come from a video game. Yeah I know, characters=/=games, and that's been proven more than a few times, and I don't think F-Zero will beat Dragon Age, but I just don't think it gets obliterated either.
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"Of course I'm going to rig the contest in my favor." - SBAllen

bow chicka wowwow. ExTha correct once again. How you like me nao, Albion.
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http://i974.photobucket.com/albums/ae229/yungflyerz/67106910.jpg

GTA IV just doesn't want to let R/S/E have that 500 vote lead.
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Support Seifer Almasy (Final Fantasy VIII) for Character Battle IX!
http://img18.imageshack.us/img18/9342/banner3seifer.jpg

LOLContests | Posted 11/1/2010 5:20:48 PM | message detail
Eh, 2009's votals were worse than 2006's weren't they?

Vote total averages per contest:

Summer 2002 - 68353
Summer 2003 - 106262
Spring 2004 - 82801
Summer 2004 - 83990
Spring 2005 - 77604
Summer 2005 - 97606
Summer 2006 - 121917
Fall 2006 - 121677
Fall 2007 - 136178
Fall 2008 - 134028
Spring 2009 - 120580
Winter 2010 - 52590 for Night Matches and 73248 for Day Matches. Overall average is 127518.

For Winter 2010, in order to obtain an average to adjust for the 24 hour, 64 match format of the previous contests, it was necessary to sum up the vote totals of all 127 matches and then divide that by 64. In doing that, the average was 127518, which might be a little high for the last contest.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!

This is turning into an epic stall-fest. Does anyone expect Pokemon to fall off near midnight?
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"I do read sometimes." Mat Cauthon, The Wheel of Time.
http://www.animemusicvideos.org/members/members_videoinfo.php?v=177506

You can't add them.Because I am sure that most that vote in one match vote in the other too.
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~

This is turning into an epic stall-fest. Does anyone expect Pokemon to fall off near midnight?

I'm sure that by 8 or 9, GTA will start cutting again. Its got good second night vote trends.
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http://i.neoseeker.com/ca/fallout_new_vegas_conceptart_7XvFK.jpg

You can't add them.Because I am sure that most that vote in one match vote in the other too.

I don't know how many users managed to vote in all 127 matches. In fact, I tried to ask Bacon that question earlier this year after the contest ended, but my Feedback ticket was rejected and set to "Read".
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!

I hope so.

From: Safer Sephiroth 777 | #224
You can't add them.Because I am sure that most that vote in one match vote in the other too.

There certainly is some overlap, but most? I'd have a lot of trouble believing that. It would seem to indicate a pretty dramatic drop-off in vote totals. I'm not even sure how confident I'd be in saying most of Board 8 votes in both matches, and one would think this board should have the highest occurrence of that.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (20/25) Pokemon RSE v GTA IV

Wow, I'm not sure what to make of this match.... is Metroid Fusion a handheld powerhouse, or is GTA4 that worthless now? Or maybe RSE is a bit stronger than DPP now? Granted, part of the explanation is that this IS a day match. GTA4 would have 51-52% if it took place 12 hours earlier. Still, if DPP = RSE, GTA4 only gets like 57% on Fusion. Actually, that's quite believable when I think about it again.

Make that 4 missed matches now. If I did my original "gut" predictions when first filling out the bracket... I would have gotten 3 of those matches correct that I would have otherwise missed (RSE, Morrowind, and Deus Ex). Then again, my "gut" also picked Psychonauts, Legend of Dragoon, Mario Sunshine, and Resident Evil 5. =P

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

GTA IV just doesn't want to let R/S/E have that 500 vote lead.

To be fair, RSE's ASV is dying off finally, while GTA has pretty much remained consistent through the entire ASV. It'll probably stall for a couple more hours, then we'll see some cuts about 3 hours before the match is over. Though considering how it struggeled to pull a 300 lead in the first three hours, I'm not sure GTA is going to come back from a 500 vote deficit.

Awww yeah, that's the stuff.
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http://i974.photobucket.com/albums/ae229/yungflyerz/67106910.jpg

From: Haste_2 | #229
Then again, my "gut" also picked Psychonauts

What in the world is wrong with your gut?
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http://i.imgur.com/CbfFb.jpg

Well, we've had about 1000 contest matches over the span of 8 years. If it hasn't happened yet, when's it going to happen?

Super Mario Bros. Vs. Super Smash Bros.?
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"Ahem! There is *sand* on my *boot*!"--Kefka
Dr. Football beat me, Yesmar in the 2010 Guru Contest!

From: LOLContests | #233
Well, we've had about 1000 contest matches over the span of 8 years. If it hasn't happened yet, when's it going to happen?

Super Mario Bros. Vs. Super Smash Bros.?

That wasn't rSFF. That was Brawl hype.
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Support Barret Wallace (Final Fantasy VII) for Character Battle IX!
http://img687.imageshack.us/img687/3834/banner1barret.jpg

It'd be hilarious to see POkemon R/S/E to beat Mario Galaxy
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~Ange

That wasn't rSFF. That was Brawl hype.

But it didn't do nearly so well against Sonic. Unless you think Sonic was a solid #4 back then, and gets close to 60% on Metal Gear.
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"Ahem! There is *sand* on my *boot*!"--Kefka
Dr. Football beat me, Yesmar in the 2010 Guru Contest!

In the previous contest I voted in all matches.And I don't live in USA too.If you care about these stuff,is it that hard to log in 2 times per day for 5 minutes total?
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~

Oh, and I've always thought that FF1vFFIV was rSFF too, although I understand if other people don't.
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"Ahem! There is *sand* on my *boot*!"--Kefka
Dr. Football beat me, Yesmar in the 2010 Guru Contest!

Also would like to say thank you to NGamer and yoblazer for convincing me to change this pick. Aw the hell yeah. =)
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http://i974.photobucket.com/albums/ae229/yungflyerz/67106910.jpg

From: LOLContests | #236
That wasn't rSFF. That was Brawl hype.

But it didn't do nearly so well against Sonic. Unless you think Sonic was a solid #4 back then, and gets close to 60% on Metal Gear.

I don't really trust any of those numbers, but it's not like it matters since we'll never have another Series Contest. But why would it overperform on Mario and not on Sonic?

Still, the Sonic series is one of those that gets a decent bit of "respect," or at least it did back then, so I'd imagine that it probably could've been #4 overall.

Smash wouldn't manage 37% on Mario Bros. if you ran that poll today though.
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"

Just got back from a few hours out, it's been hilarious reading what I missed. It essentially developed a pattern of:

- Albion says that GTA'll be okay because the votes are about to trend in its favour
- Pokemon makes a massive gain
- Wait about 15 minutes
- Rinse and repeat.

Hopefully GTA does make a small cut later on, I'm on course for a potential (first ever) top 5 Oracle finish if it does!
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James - Board 8's Resident Warm And Safe, Slipper-Wearing User
& The Cream of Porcupine Tree Fanboyism

R/S/E sending a message now
prepare for upsets, galaxy
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Maple Leafs: 5-2-1 / Raptors: top 3 pick plz / Jays / TFC: legit DPs plz / Argos: 8-8 /
SS - 3052 0230 3247 | Platinum (legalhacks) - 0775 7164 7136

What in the world is wrong with your gut?
Because I had never heard of that Batman game. I paid literally no attention to games for a couple years....

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

From: Safer Sephiroth 777 | #237
In the previous contest I voted in all matches.And I don't live in USA too.If you care about these stuff,is it that hard to log in 2 times per day for 5 minutes total?

It's not difficult, but that's not what I'm saying.

If we say that most people who vote in one match also vote in the other, then the amount of unique voters has just entered such a dramatic freefall that I find it hard to believe.

Using the stats from before:

Summer 2006 - 121917
Fall 2006 - 121677
Fall 2007 - 136178
Fall 2008 - 134028
Spring 2009 - 120580
Winter 2010 - 52590 for Night Matches and 73248 for Day Matches. Overall average is 127518.

If over 50% who voted in one match voted in the other, the best case scenario would be saying that just under half of the Night Votes (26294) were unique and the remainder voted in both, and add that total to the Day Total and you get 99542 unique votes in the Winter 2010 Contest. Looking at the previous totals, that's far enough off that it raises some flags to me, and personally suggests to me that the overlap can't be that great.

If you run the calculation the other way (Assume that half the Day Voters voted in both and take that away and add the remainder to the Night Votes) it gets even worse - 89213 unique votes.

...Is there any reason to think the votals have decreased that significantly?
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (20/25) Pokemon RSE v GTA IV

GTA winning Japan. That's kind of weird
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

From: Haste_2 | #243
Because I had never heard of that Batman game.

That should've been enough to pick it over Psychonauts!
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."

Almost 200 votes in 4 updates. Wow.
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http://i113.photobucket.com/albums/n231/sihp/waluigi.gif

Okay, you win, Leonhart. =P

RSE beating Mario Galaxy suddenly doesn't look laughable now, since Mario Galaxy would probably struggle with GTA4... at least, the one from 2009. I still expect a 55/45ish match in favor of Galaxy next round.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

In the previous contest I voted in all matches.And I don't live in USA too.If you care about these stuff,is it that hard to log in 2 times per day for 5 minutes total?

I think only a small minority of the site visitors actually vote in all 127 matches or almost all of them. Here is an interesting poll:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3661

You are looking at 35.51% of the site visitors who are able to vote in both matches per day. As for how many of them actually vote in both matches each day, I don't know.

Another way to look at this is to look at the vote distribution for night matches and day matches from the last contest:

Night Matches - North America - 70.56% / South America - 2.35% / Europe - 18.30% / Asia - 5.12% / Oceania - 3.53% / Africa - 0.14%
Day Matches - North America - 81.28% / South America - 2.82% / Europe - 12.20% / Asia - 1.87% / Oceania - 1.75% / Africa - 0.08%

For the continent poll (poll 3954), here were the vote distribution for the first 12 hours and the second 12 hours:

First 12 hours: North America - 68.17% / South America - 2.51% / Europe - 19.08% / Asia - 5.17% / Oceania - 4.56% / Africa - 0.51%
Second 12 hours: North America - 80.52% / South America - 4.29% / Europe - 11.38% / Asia - 1.89% / Oceania - 1.51% / Africa - 0.41%



Those numbers are fairly similar to the vote distribution seen in night matches and day matches, although South America overperformed significantly during the day. In the continent poll, South America averaged 4.29% over the course of the last 12 hours of the poll, while 3.34% was South America's record in a day match. South America overperforming in the last 12 hours of that poll could be the result of North American voters being more likely to vote for "South America" in the last 12 hours of the poll compared to the first 12 hours. And as for Africa, about 2/3rds of the Africa votes weren't even from Africa, so the Africa percentages for the continent poll are greatly overinflated.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!

If over 50% who voted in one match voted in the other, the best case scenario would be saying that just under half of the Night Votes (26294) were unique and the remainder voted in both, and add that total to the Day Total and you get 99542 unique votes in the Winter 2010 Contest. Looking at the previous totals, that's far enough off that it raises some flags to me, and personally suggests to me that the overlap can't be that great.

If you run the calculation the other way (Assume that half the Day Voters voted in both and take that away and add the remainder to the Night Votes) it gets even worse - 89213 unique votes.

...Is there any reason to think the votals have decreased that significantly?


Going from past trends roughly 55% of votes are cast during the first 12 hours meaning vote totals would have averaged 95618 votes.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 20/24 Today's Matches: SMG & GTA4