GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 934
TRE Public Account | Posted 11/1/2010 9:51:38 AM | message detail |
Halo
was the slight favorite in the stats compared to SMS and Halo ended
slightly ahead of SMS as the stats called for. Stats make stupid calls
sometimes but that doesn't mean every single mistake should be blamed
on the stats. --- Dr_Football punted my bracket across the field. Congrats to Dr_Football for winning the Character Battle 8 Guru Contest! |
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Denzokuken | Posted 11/1/2010 9:51:42 AM | message detail |
erm GTA wtf r u doin |
Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/1/2010 9:51:53 AM | message detail |
From: KamikazePotato | #294 I'd say they do, as stats are what we use to form these assumptions. SFIV is a good example, again. I suspect a lot of people would have changed for that if it hadn't merely equalled Persona 4 last year. Of course I'm more talking past polls in general than like, specifically xstats. I'm just saying we shouldn't use these things as an iron rule. --- Something something something ^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig |
MegatokyoEd | Posted 11/1/2010 9:52:38 AM | message detail |
The
major misses we've had this contest to me WERE the logical picks. Even
without stats I would have taken RB2 over Deus Ex, WC3 over Morrowind,
and Disgaea over VC. --- Demyx is better than Axel. http://www.last.fm/user/crazydom |
Gooper Blooper | Posted 11/1/2010 9:52:45 AM | message detail |
Just give up, Emerald. Its not nice to tease people into thinking you have a shot here. Rayquaza's kind of a jerk. This is in character for him. Stupid bike-across-the-collapsing-floor tower. --- And then the car wash cost five dollars. Pokemon Platinum: 1719 9497 5082 Pokemon HeartGold: 2966 0920 7723 |
Hochimihnister | Posted 11/1/2010 9:53:18 AM | message detail |
I dunno man. Charizard being a mother****ing beast happened 1 on 1. Charizard being a beast was only due to joke votes. At normal level, he can get 53% on Kratos which is weaker than 2005 Alucard who got 55% on Kratos |
Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/1/2010 9:53:49 AM | message detail |
Also pardon me if I'm wrong, but I thought we didn't have any Sunshine stats. What are you basing that off of? --- Something something something ^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig |
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/1/2010 9:54:11 AM | message detail |
That's
not Stats. Stats is when you look at how two different games have done
in the past, and then make assumptions based off of that. SFIV looked
like crap last year, and it probably still is crap. But we had never
seen Sonic Adventure 2, so we assumed that it would be less crappy.
That's not Stats, that's Logic. --- DFF |
HaRRicH | Posted 11/1/2010 9:54:32 AM | message detail |
From: LOLContests | #297 I think occasionally, but I wouldn't call him a regular like Lucid in 2005 or EC in 2007. Also, if we had seen SA2 before but not SF4 until this contest, the majority would have favored SF4. Once you look really bad, it becomes much easier to have faith in its newcomer-opponent. --- http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg E-p-o-n-a |
AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 11/1/2010 9:54:54 AM | message detail |
From: Hochimihnister | #306 Wasn't there a game in between there? I would not assume Kratos is static across those two contests... --- http://img.imgcake.com/drakeryn/tiroalecjpgap.jpg |
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/1/2010 9:55:04 AM | message detail |
From: Lightning Strikes | #307 Halo 3 looked equal to or better than Galaxy last year. Galaxy>=Sunshine. Basically the same thing used for this match. GTAIV looked equal to or better than Diamond. Diamond>=Ruby. --- DFF |
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 11/1/2010 9:55:05 AM | message detail |
At normal level, he can get 53% on Kratos which is weaker than 2005 Alucard who got 55% on Kratos 55% on a Kratos with one game to his name. That's a distinctly different Kratos than the one we have now. --- For your health. At least Kupo has class and doesn't MESSAGE the people -Dr Pizza |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/1/2010 9:55:11 AM | message detail |
I
think GTA is the more "stats-y" pick for this match. We actually had
stats on it. Pokemon was the "common sense" pick, because it was an
up-trending series and no one trusted GTA to beat Pokemon in the day. --- Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/ml36gl_th.gif Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world! |
Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/1/2010 9:55:30 AM | message detail |
Semantics Though I should have phrased it better myself But you know what I mean! --- Something something something ^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig |
TRE Public Account | Posted 11/1/2010 9:55:40 AM | message detail |
Also pardon me if I'm wrong, but I thought we didn't have any Sunshine stats. What are you basing that off of? If you don't think there are any stats for SMS, why are you calling Halo vs SMS a stats pick? --- Dr_Football punted my bracket across the field. Congrats to Dr_Football for winning the Character Battle 8 Guru Contest! |
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/1/2010 9:55:58 AM | message detail |
No, I really don't. --- DFF |
Dilated Chemist | Posted 11/1/2010 9:56:03 AM | message detail |
Don't **** with GTA! --- GT: TriggerTRE // PSN ID: SolidTRE GOTD SWEET 16: FO3, Halo, MP, GTA3, SSBM, SSBB, Z:TP, KH2, FFX, FFIX, RE4, CC:FF7, MSG3, MGS4, Z:MM, Z:WW |
AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 11/1/2010 9:56:26 AM | message detail |
From: Lightning Strikes | #307 People were arguing GotY polls (which I don't put much faith in personally but hey). But if you're saying we didn't have any stats, how are you possibly arguing that SMS was favored by stats? --- Gamefaqs' #1 Testicle Bettor: Proud owner of many testes http://img688.imageshack.us/img688/6553/alec.png |
Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/1/2010 9:56:44 AM | message detail |
From: TRE Public Account | #315 Because of what I already explained Semantics --- Something something something ^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig |
Hochimihnister | Posted 11/1/2010 9:56:44 AM | message detail |
55% on a Kratos with one game to his name. That's a distinctly different Kratos than the one we have now. They are basically the same strength. Kratos only got 60% on Tails. Tails! |
red sox 777 | Posted 11/1/2010 9:56:46 AM | message detail |
If
the stats topic hasn't won a contest in 6 years, it's because there's
like 50 people who post here fairly frequently and 30,000 people making
brackets site-wide. Also, you can't blame stats for getting matches wrong where one of the entrants wasn't in a contest before! And I think we're confusing logical reasoning with intuitive reasoning in many cases too. --- Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest. |
SuperAngelo128 | Posted 11/1/2010 9:57:00 AM | message detail |
Kinda interesting how Pokemon is screwing people in the other direction this match --- ~ Ange |
Gooper Blooper | Posted 11/1/2010 9:57:38 AM | message detail |
It's super-effective! --- And then the car wash cost five dollars. Pokemon Platinum: 1719 9497 5082 Pokemon HeartGold: 2966 0920 7723 |
AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 11/1/2010 9:57:50 AM | message detail |
From: Lightning Strikes | #319 See, I don't even see what you're arguing here any more. --- http://img.imgcake.com/alecoweenpngam.png http://img.imgcake.com/alecpngym.png |
LOLContests | Posted 11/1/2010 9:58:53 AM | message detail |
By
focusing on the close matches, you're ignoring the fact that the
board/stats people absolutely own the rest of the site when it comes to
most of the other matches. Don't forget that over 20% of the site
thought that Mother 3 would win its match. Tos > RE5, and GoW > L4D are also gimmees, that would not have been, had people not followed the stats/previous contests. --- "Ahem! There is *sand* on my *boot*!"--Kefka Dr. Football beat me, Yesmar in the 2010 Guru Contest! |
Hochimihnister | Posted 11/1/2010 9:58:55 AM | message detail |
There
was stats for SMS. We saw it get like 5% and lose to animal Crossing in
that 2004 or whatever GOTY poll. And logic would dictate that SMS would
have only gotten weaker since then. We saw Halo 3 do decently in the
games contest while we saw SMG suck it up. And once again, logic would
dictate that even SMG would be leaps and bounds ahead of SMS |
Dilated Chemist | Posted 11/1/2010 9:59:33 AM | message detail |
Expect GTA4 to break the 200 vote barrier here. --- GT: TriggerTRE // PSN ID: SolidTRE GOTD SWEET 16: FO3, Halo, MP, GTA3, SSBM, SSBB, Z:TP, KH2, FFX, FFIX, RE4, CC:FF7, MSG3, MGS4, Z:MM, Z:WW |
red sox 777 | Posted 11/1/2010 9:59:38 AM | message detail |
Well,
Lightning Strikes, past results are a great indicator of future
performance, if that's what you mean. They're not perfect of course,
and our ability to interpret them is really far from perfect, but yeah,
results are consistent over time. --- Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest. |
AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 11/1/2010 9:59:56 AM | message detail |
Basically, are you saying having that having knowledge of previous contests is a BAD thing? Because if we ignore previous contests, we're basically just guessing based on popularity, and you'd expect Halo and Modern Warfare 2 to make the elite eight. And there's no way people who do that will do better than people in this topic. --- http://img.imgcake.com/drakeryn/tiroalecjpgap.jpg |
Dilated Chemist | Posted 11/1/2010 10:00:31 AM | message detail |
Not quite. --- GT: TriggerTRE // PSN ID: SolidTRE GOTD SWEET 16: FO3, Halo, MP, GTA3, SSBM, SSBB, Z:TP, KH2, FFX, FFIX, RE4, CC:FF7, MSG3, MGS4, Z:MM, Z:WW |
JaKyL25 | Posted 11/1/2010 10:00:48 AM | message detail |
From: LOLContests | #297 Sometimes, but I'm more of a lurker. I don't often have anything to add, I just take all the hard work you guys have done and apply my own twist on common sense to it. <_< Rest assured I am here and I am reading! --- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. http://i.neoseeker.com/n/2/nintendo_quality_seal.jpg |
Swarles_Barkley | Posted 11/1/2010 10:01:22 AM | message detail |
Funny
that the people who use stats often should be receiving flak for
performing badly in this contest - for that very reason - when this
contest probably has the most newcomers since the dawn of stats. Shouldn't the stats topic's bad performance here relatively to previous contest be, if anything, a vindication of the use of statistics? I'm a little puzzled how anyone could cite this contest for disregarding stats in general or not using them at all anymore. --- Character is who you are when no one is watching. |
The Real Truth | Posted 11/1/2010 10:01:44 AM | message detail |
Actually,k
GoW would have been a gimme even if I didn't pay attention to contests
at all. ToS > RE5 would have been a tossup though, and even more so
because I dislike both games. --- GameFAQs isn't going to be merged in with GameSpot or any other site. We're not going to strip out the soul of the site. -CJayC |
LOLContests | Posted 11/1/2010 10:02:21 AM | message detail |
Woah,
I just saw that 57% of brackets took RE5 to win its match! Kind of
surprising, since in cases where a contest veteran (especially one that
has won a match) goes up against a newbie, the brackets support the
veteran. Weird that they were on RE5's side in this match. --- "Ahem! There is *sand* on my *boot*!"--Kefka Dr. Football beat me, Yesmar in the 2010 Guru Contest! |
Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/1/2010 10:02:42 AM | message detail |
Forget it I don't want to reiterate, but what we have here is simply myself meaning something different to what you think I mean. From: LOLContests | #325 See, stuff like that is just violation of all common sense stats or no. >_> --- Something something something ^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig |
The Real Truth | Posted 11/1/2010 10:03:12 AM | message detail |
Because Tales is still obscure. --- GameFAQs isn't going to be merged in with GameSpot or any other site. We're not going to strip out the soul of the site. -CJayC |
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/1/2010 10:04:31 AM | message detail |
I
always thought that GTA4 was the common sense pick here. Least popular
Pokemon vs. a game thats showed itself to be a pretty popular game? I
didn't get the R/S/E pick here. I thought GTA4 would be closer to
Galaxy than R/S/E. --- http://myanimelist.net/signature/RyanSaotome.png |
__Smurf__ | Posted 11/1/2010 10:17:07 AM | message detail |
The
problem with the stats topic is the sheep mentality, when something is
a favoured at the lower to mid end of the strength spectrum it tends to
be something that the vast majority pick based on the fact that they
feel everyone else is picking that too and that makes up their mind for
them, At the higher end people have more stats to work with so they
have a stronger case to support their own ideas. Its just very funny
seeing matches like say VC/Disgaea where almost everyone who expects
Disgaea to win doesn't expect it to win by more than 55% and yet 4
times the number of people picked Disgaea for the guru. It's a bit
silly. --- Smurf , The cream of Sonic fanboyism. |
red sox 777 | Posted 11/1/2010 10:18:38 AM | message detail |
Uh, this match isn't over, not even close. It looks, like, dead even right now. Pokemon will pick up 1% or so with the ASV. --- Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest. |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/1/2010 10:19:33 AM | message detail |
From: __Smurf__ | #338 To be fair, I picked Disgaea as a 1 point favorites pick. --- `·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.· http://i188.photobucket.com/albums/z277/raptorlc/ahhhh.jpg |
pjbasis | Posted 11/1/2010 10:21:14 AM | message detail |
Feelin pretty good about changing my battle picks to VC and GTA4 now. Someone change my mind to MW2 quick! |
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/1/2010 10:24:27 AM | message detail |
Pokemon is trying to do whatever it can to stall until the ASV. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ! |
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/1/2010 10:24:41 AM | message detail |
Speaking of Stats, let's see what happens when you take the vote-in polls and factor in anything that's faced them so far! Half-Life 2: 50% Assassin's Creed: 43.95% Super Mario Galaxy: 41.53% Devil May Cry: 38.68% Left 4 Dead 2: 25.52% Beyond Good and Evil: 20.94% Metroid Prime: 50% Uncharted 2: 48.62% Halo: Combat Evolved: 48.41% Legend of Dragoon: 41.43% Star Wars Battlefront II: 41.07% Mario Kart DS: 39.12% Ninja Gaiden: 34.42% Plants vs. Zombies: 31.45% Jet Grind Radio: 27.22% Star Ocean 3: 26.66% (Brawl excluded for obvious reasons) God of War II: 50% Pokemon Diamond: 43.54% Tales of Symphonia: 41.60% Resident Evil 5: 39.79% Metroid Fusion: 39.15% Infamous: 26.27% Didn't do the last set as they haven't seen any action outside of Melee stomping Guitar Hero. --- DFF |
MegatokyoEd | Posted 11/1/2010 10:24:54 AM | message detail |
The
thing is that there was no real argument for Valkyria. It's never
looked good in a poll(as far as I know), has sold less than the first
Disgaea, and Laharl had looked stronger than usual the last two
contests. Disgaea was the safe pick there 100%. --- Demyx is better than Axel. http://www.last.fm/user/crazydom |
Redtooth | Posted 11/1/2010 10:29:11 AM | message detail |
B8 regulars, as well as stats regulars, finish in the top 10/top 50 consistently every single contest. How is that not thanks to having stats and previous contests to work out of? --- I thought I'd never change, but Dr Football beat me into shape! |
TRE Public Account | Posted 11/1/2010 10:31:40 AM | message detail |
The
problem with the stats topic is the sheep mentality, when something is
a favoured at the lower to mid end of the strength spectrum it tends to
be something that the vast majority pick based on the fact that they
feel everyone else is picking that too and that makes up their mind for
them, At the higher end people have more stats to work with so they
have a stronger case to support their own ideas. Its just very funny
seeing matches like say VC/Disgaea where almost everyone who expects
Disgaea to win doesn't expect it to win by more than 55% and yet 4
times the number of people picked Disgaea for the guru. It's a bit
silly. That's not necessarily a bad thing. We get called out whenever we get it wrong and this leads to a massive loss in points. However, when we get it right it's a big win. A example of the top of my head would be Squall vs Auron from the previous contest match. They looked to be close in strength and they were. We went into "sheep mentality" mode and sided with Squall with nearly 80% and killed the overall bracket makers who only had 36.82% support for Squall. I could probably find some other examples as well. --- Dr_Football punted my bracket across the field. Congrats to Dr_Football for winning the Character Battle 8 Guru Contest! |
pjbasis | Posted 11/1/2010 10:34:30 AM | message detail |
What
are you talking about? Valkyria being a far more well received game
than disgaea and potentially having a similar fanbase as a playstation
anime influenced SRPG counts for something right? And disgaea may be that series where people like the series but not really any one particular game, like kirby. |
Haguile | Posted 11/1/2010 10:34:51 AM | message detail |
From: MegatokyoEd | #344 It beat Disgaea when they were in the same poll before. And that was before VC got an anime. has sold less than the first Disgaea Are you sure? I remember JC talking about the opposite. I agree that it might have been the safest pick, but yeah there were some arguments for it. The quality of those arguments is up to debate though. How good is Pokemon's ASV usually? |
ZFS | Posted 11/1/2010 10:34:57 AM | message detail |
Valkyria
Chronicles actually rebounded nicely, in terms of sales, after it got a
pricecut. That's not the reason it won, but it managed to go above 100k
in the US. The thing about that match, and why I took VC to win, was
that Valkyria has enjoyed more current popularity than Disgaea. The
people that have played it adore it, the people who haven't played it
have at least probably heard of how good it's supposed to be. And
between the both of them, VC and Disgaea, VC has far more appeal to
those who have played neither. --- The whole object of travel is not to set foot on foreign land; it is at last to set foot on one's own country as a foreign land. |
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 11/1/2010 10:36:02 AM | message detail |
Are you sure? I remember JC talking about the opposite. VC had a big sales surge recently, but I still haven't been able to find numbers for Disgaea's sales. --- For your health. At least Kupo has class and doesn't MESSAGE the people -Dr Pizza |
