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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 934

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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/1/2010 5:55:29 AM | message detail
Hmmm...Pretty expected performance out of Galaxy here, considering BG&E is one of the weakest games in the bracket, most likely. Not sure what some people were thinking with 80%+ predictions here though. Galaxy's not strong enough for that. And man, you guys are crazy if you think Galaxy can actually put up 40% on TP. I'm not sure it's worth that indirectly, much less with SFF. You guys either really overvalue Galaxy or undervalue TP, probably a bit of both. Twilight Princess isn't a hated game, guys. It really isn't. It still got 62-63% on FFXII and Half-Life 2 last time around, and I probably wouldn't take Galaxy over either of those games.

By the way, Star Ocean vs. BG&E: Who you got?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/1/2010 5:57:44 AM | message detail
Also, there's no way Majora's Mask gets anywhere close to 90% on Wii Sports. It's just not strong enough to do that either.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2625

Even TP at the absolute height of its popularity couldn't break 90% on Wii Sports here (though it came close, 89.38% here). Plus, it's on the same system as Wii Sports. Majora's Mask isn't getting the blowout of the contest.
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FFI3_Lightning | Posted 11/1/2010 6:00:05 AM | message detail
You wouldn't take Galaxy over FFXII? The ****? Fuorway battles are rubbish. Galaxy is stronger than people think. SMG2 came out this year..taht alone has boosted SMG.

And TP isn't hated sure but it doesn't have OoT level SFFing ability. Galaxy can get 40% on TP imo. If you're going purely by zelda/mario fanbases then zelda wins everytime but it's about the games. Remember Lttp and MArio 64? Mario 64 almost won.
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FFI3_Lightning | Posted 11/1/2010 6:00:48 AM | message detail
Majora's Mask isn't getting the blowout of the contest.

I think that's going to Resident Evil 4 imo.

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Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/1/2010 6:02:41 AM | message detail
Based off of what we've seen, I'm not sure TP will SFF Galaxy at all 1 on 1.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/1/2010 6:02:46 AM | message detail

From: FFI3_Lightning | #053
Remember Lttp and MArio 64? Mario 64 almost won.


Yeah, Mario 64 is a lot stronger than Mario Galaxy, too.

Galaxy's not that strong, but I already had this argument with you about GOTY, so I'm not going to bother.
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MoogleKupo141 | Posted 11/1/2010 6:03:33 AM | message detail
Galaxy may not be super strong, but FFXII? I think Galaxy would win that one.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/1/2010 6:03:51 AM | message detail

From: Lightning Strikes | #055
Based off of what we've seen, I'm not sure TP will SFF Galaxy at all 1 on 1.


...What have we seen, exactly?

We haven't even seen TP one-on-one, ever.
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voltch | Posted 11/1/2010 6:04:52 AM | message detail
4 way data means nothing in the end really, for all we know, TP could bomb, like really hard.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/1/2010 6:05:03 AM | message detail

From: MoogleKupo141 | #057
Galaxy may not be super strong, but FFXII? I think Galaxy would win that one.


FFXII's not as weak as you guys think either.

Final Fantasy 12 (2009g) has a strength of 29.16 against Base Link.
Super Mario Galaxy (2009g) has a strength of 22.89 against Base Link.

Final Fantasy 12 60.75% 73,118
Super Mario Galaxy 39.25% 47,239
TOTAL VOTES 120,357
Final Fantasy 12 wins with 60.75% of the vote!
A 25,879 vote margin of victory.

My word, Galaxy looked like crap last year.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/1/2010 6:05:26 AM | message detail
Based off of what we've seen, I'm not sure TP will SFF Galaxy at all 1 on 1.

Why not? While it isn't always true SSBB failing to SFF TP while SFFing SMG does suggest that TP has the potential to SFF SMG.
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GotD Bracket: 20/24 Today's Matches: SMG & GTA4
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/1/2010 6:05:40 AM | message detail
Twilight Princess (2009g) has a strength of 38.69 against Base Link.
Super Mario Galaxy (2009g) has a strength of 22.89 against Base Link.

Twilight Princess 70.42% 84,518
Super Mario Galaxy 29.58% 35,504
TOTAL VOTES 120,022
Twilight Princess wins with 70.42% of the vote!
A 49,014 vote margin of victory.

Whoo.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/1/2010 6:05:50 AM | message detail
I don't see any evidence of Galaxy being weak from this match, to be honest.

All I see is it tripling an untested, cult game that's overperforming in Europe.

It's impossible to tell if it's doing well or not, especially with BG&E being such a cult game-it'll garner a very devoted fanbase.
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MoogleKupo141 | Posted 11/1/2010 6:07:28 AM | message detail
million dollar question: Psychonauts or BGE? And like... how much difference?
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/1/2010 6:07:44 AM | message detail
I meant in SFF matches.

Or the lack thereof.

Anyway, Galaxy got SFF'd to hell last year, there's no way you can compare it to TP and expect something reasonable. I'm calling it now-Galaxy will break 40% on Twilight Princess.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/1/2010 6:07:51 AM | message detail
I don't see any evidence of Galaxy being weak from this match, to be honest.

At the same time I don't see any evidence that Galaxy is strong from this match. Only reason people aren't calling for its head is that we expect Galaxy to be this weak/strong.
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GotD Bracket: 20/24 Today's Matches: SMG & GTA4
FFI3_Lightning | Posted 11/1/2010 6:10:49 AM | message detail
And LttP is stronger than TP.

All i'm saying is Galaxy is stronger than last year. It will not go down easily to any game in this division.


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charmander6000 | Posted 11/1/2010 6:13:30 AM | message detail
It can't get any weaker I hope.
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FFI3_Lightning | Posted 11/1/2010 6:14:01 AM | message detail
Why the hell do you keep using Base link Comparison stats?

FFXII would 60% SMG? not in a MILLION years would it. Stats are effin useless at times.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/1/2010 6:14:20 AM | message detail

From: Lightning Strikes | #063
I don't see any evidence of Galaxy being weak from this match, to be honest.

All I see is it tripling an untested, cult game that's overperforming in Europe.

It's impossible to tell if it's doing well or not, especially with BG&E being such a cult game-it'll garner a very devoted fanbase.


BG&E is going to be one of the five weakest games in this contest (or bottom 10), almost certainly. Keep in mind that the main character of this game got tripled by Ada Wong.

Honestly, a really strong game would be over 80% without any problems here. Galaxy managing less than a tripling isn't all that impressive because it's a big leap from 75% to 80%.

Also, Galaxy didn't really suffer any LFF in round 1 where it got pounded by CoD4. I mean, it only got 55.40% on Pokemon D/P last year (You know, the game that just got 55% on Metroid Fusion), and if you believe there was any LFF, it does even worse. So we're looking at Galaxy getting only 60% on Metroid Fusion? That's pretty sad.

I know these aren't perfect correlations, but there is abundant evidence that Galaxy isn't a very strong game, and I'm not sure why people keep thinking that it is other than "Man, everyone seems to love this game and it reviewed well everywhere, so it SHOULD be popular!" It just feels like people are being stubborn because they either WANT Galaxy to be popular or they think it SHOULD be popular.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/1/2010 6:15:19 AM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #066
I don't see any evidence of Galaxy being weak from this match, to be honest.

At the same time I don't see any evidence that Galaxy is strong from this match. Only reason people aren't calling for its head is that we expect Galaxy to be this weak/strong.


What I'm saying is this match tells us nothing, and Galaxy is a complete unknown for strength.

What does bearing in mind though is that cult games are overperforming in this contest-even Psychonauts, probably the least played game here, looked alright. The only outright blowouts so far have been against games that are fairly popular but not that liked.

The thing is, the voters aren't dumb. They know the majority of these games, and probably know quite a lot about how they were received, and vote according to that.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/1/2010 6:16:07 AM | message detail

From: FFI3_Lightning | #069
FFXII would 60% SMG? not in a MILLION years would it.


Probably not, but all this "Man Galaxy would beat FFXII easily!" stuff isn't based on ANYTHING. Not one thing. Galaxy has looked like crap in every poll we've seen it in for the last two years, so people are just going off personal feelings that have no statistical basis in anything.

And it's not like I want Galaxy to be weak or anything. I'm probably a bigger fanboy of the games than any of you in here, but man, it feels like people are just in denial about this game.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/1/2010 6:17:13 AM | message detail

From: Lightning Strikes | #071
The thing is, the voters aren't dumb. They know the majority of these games, and probably know quite a lot about how they were received, and vote according to that.


Then Galaxy should be doing a lot better because it's the highest rated game of the last decade.

So I guess we should probably expect GTA IV to crush R/S/E based on that, too.
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 11/1/2010 6:18:54 AM | message detail
Games =/= Characters, but if they were...

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2500

Galaxy would struggle to beat Ada Wong, though I imagine if it got a full 24-hours it'd pass Ada's percentage. Still, not really good for Galaxy.

Seriously, why the **** is one of the best games of this gen so G-d damn weak? ****ing GameFAQs.
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FFI3_Lightning | Posted 11/1/2010 6:19:46 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #070
BG&E is going to be one of the five weakest games in this contest (or bottom 10), almost certainly. Keep in mind that the main character of this game got tripled by Ada Wong.

Honestly, a really strong game would be over 80% without any problems here. Galaxy managing less than a tripling isn't all that impressive because it's a big leap from 75% to 80%.

Also, Galaxy didn't really suffer any LFF in round 1 where it got pounded by CoD4. I mean, it only got 55.40% on Pokemon D/P last year (You know, the game that just got 55% on Metroid Fusion), and if you believe there was any LFF, it does even worse. So we're looking at Galaxy getting only 60% on Metroid Fusion? That's pretty sad.

I know these aren't perfect correlations, but there is abundant evidence that Galaxy isn't a very strong game, and I'm not sure why people keep thinking that it is other than "Man, everyone seems to love this game and it reviewed well everywhere, so it SHOULD be popular!" It just feels like people are being stubborn because they either WANT Galaxy to be popular or they think it SHOULD be popular.


Again...Galaxy IS a popular game. It's just not omega popular like some of the other games. But that doesn't mean it's not popular.

And again this was last year. I think Galaxy is more popular this year. Same with Mass Effect being more popular this year.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/1/2010 6:20:44 AM | message detail
What I'm saying is this match tells us nothing, and Galaxy is a complete unknown for strength.

Which is why we should look at the evidence. You can hope that it does better, but there's nothing pointing to it. If anything SMG is becoming less cared about.


What does bearing in mind though is that cult games are overperforming in this contest-even Psychonauts, probably the least played game here, looked alright.

Batman isn't exactly that strong either.
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GotD Bracket: 20/24 Today's Matches: SMG & GTA4
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/1/2010 6:21:24 AM | message detail

From: FFI3_Lightning | #075
Again...Galaxy IS a popular game. It's just not omega popular like some of the other games. But that doesn't mean it's not popular.

And again this was last year. I think Galaxy is more popular this year.


Why? Galaxy 2? Why would that boost Galaxy 1? This isn't like characters where they get stronger with new releases. It's a different game altogether.
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__Smurf__ | Posted 11/1/2010 6:21:51 AM | message detail
It hardly follows, BG&E is a very good game, Jade is an unspectacular character in it, I certainly wouldn't agree with BG&E in the bottom 5 either.

I'd take all of these to lose comfortably to BG&E

No Mercy
Guitar Hero II
Braid
Rock Band 2
Plants vs Zombies
inFamous
Jet Grind Radio
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/1/2010 6:23:13 AM | message detail
I think you underestimate the strength of Pokemon in multi-option polls. I mean look at this:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3998

I don't normally give those polls much respect, but it does show Pokemon to be a LFF beast. It has a very firm, active fanbase and as a result overperforms in fourways. I don't think DPP only getting 55% on Metroid Fusion shows it as weak as much as it shows how much stronger it is in fourways. The other thing to remember is that SFF matches are determined by fandom preferences. We saw it with Fusion, and you have to ask, which between Galaxy and TP do fans think is the better game?

It's not just a popularity contest, it's about voter preference as well, especially in SFF matches.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/1/2010 6:24:08 AM | message detail
BG&E isn't going to beat anything comfortably, I'd imagine.

But still, if not bottom 5, probably bottom 10.
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MoogleKupo141 | Posted 11/1/2010 6:24:20 AM | message detail
Keep in mind that the main character of this game got tripled by Ada Wong.

the main character of FFXII got less than 10 % in a poll ;>_>


I'm actually retroactively scared of FFXII. It beat KH2 for best PS2 game in 2006

or I'm more scared for KHII

either way

something.
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MoogleKupo141 | Posted 11/1/2010 6:25:31 AM | message detail
What does bearing in mind though is that cult games are overperforming in this contest-even Psychonauts, probably the least played game here, looked alright.

no way is Psychonauts the least played game

that's totally Mother 3
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/1/2010 6:27:30 AM | message detail

From: Lightning Strikes | #079
I think you underestimate the strength of Pokemon in multi-option polls. I mean look at this:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3998


Man, a series poll? That doesn't have much of anything to do with Galaxy or D/P as individual games. D/P got crushed by CoD4, and we just saw CoD4 get 63% on Sands of Time. That isn't a very popular game. I don't understand this "Pokemon is stronger in 4-ways!" stuff because we tried to use that argument for the last Character Battle and Pikachu, Charizard, and Missingno rocked faces.

and you have to ask, which between Galaxy and TP do fans think is the better game?


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3728

Looks like TP, and by a pretty wide margin.

Man, how in the world do you end up dead last behind Wind Waker with Twilight Princess in the poll? That's pathetic.
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FFI3_Lightning | Posted 11/1/2010 6:28:03 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #072
Probably not, but all this "Man Galaxy would beat FFXII easily!" stuff isn't based on ANYTHING. Not one thing. Galaxy has looked like crap in every poll we've seen it in for the last two years, so people are just going off personal feelings that have no statistical basis in anything.

And it's not like I want Galaxy to be weak or anything. I'm probably a bigger fanboy of the games than any of you in here, but man, it feels like people are just in denial about this game.


All i'm saying is that lets wait until next round to determine SMG's strength THIS year in 1v1 tournament. BGE isn't a complete unknown game..it was actually fairly popular back in the day, so of course it's going to get some votes.

Also Galaxy was pretty strong in the GOTY polls in 2007 wasn't it? So it wasn't weak in everything.

From: Not_Wylvane | #074
Games =/= Characters, but if they were...

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2500

Galaxy would struggle to beat Ada Wong, though I imagine if it got a full 24-hours it'd pass Ada's percentage. Still, not really good for Galaxy.

Seriously, why the **** is one of the best games of this gen so G-d damn weak? ****ing GameFAQs.


WTF are you talking about? never use gamesvs characters.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/1/2010 6:28:09 AM | message detail

From: MoogleKupo141 | #081
Keep in mind that the main character of this game got tripled by Ada Wong.

the main character of FFXII got less than 10 % in a poll ;>_>


Balthier did not!
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/1/2010 6:28:40 AM | message detail
That poll shows more how different the Pokemon fanbase is from the rest of Nintendo.

It's not just a popularity contest, it's about voter preference as well, especially in SFF matches.

Which basically makes it a popularity contest.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 20/24 Today's Matches: SMG & GTA4
Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/1/2010 6:28:56 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #073
Then Galaxy should be doing a lot better because it's the highest rated game of the last decade.

So I guess we should probably expect GTA IV to crush R/S/E based on that, too.


This implies critics mean anything, and fans actually liked GTAIV.

Neither are especially true.

Also Jade is not an apt comparison for BG&E, and no I would not expect it to be in the bottom 5 games for this contest.

But about Jade, let's put it this way. Only people who have played BG&E will vote for Jade, but people who have heard of BG&E but not necessarily played it can vote for it. On top of that people need to have liked Jade to vote for her, but people can like the game and not Jade, and vote for the game fine.

Also I do expect BG&E to be more popular now-there's rumblings of a sequel, an updated rerelease is coming soon, and it's a steam game.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/1/2010 6:29:14 AM | message detail

From: FFI3_Lightning | #084
All i'm saying is that lets wait until next round to determine SMG's strength THIS year in 1v1 tournament. BGE isn't a complete unknown game..it was actually fairly popular back in the day, so of course it's going to get some votes.

Also Galaxy was pretty strong in the GOTY polls in 2007 wasn't it? So it wasn't weak in everything.


Yeah, if you want to say "Hey look at this older data, it totally trumps our most recent data!" go ahead, but that's pretty silly.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/1/2010 6:30:39 AM | message detail
All i'm saying is that lets wait until next round to determine SMG's strength THIS year in 1v1 tournament. BGE isn't a complete unknown game..it was actually fairly popular back in the day, so of course it's going to get some votes.

Take a look at the GotY polls if you want, BGE probably had one of the worst performances for a game that's in this contest.
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voltch | Posted 11/1/2010 6:31:03 AM | message detail
I never knew we based Xstats on games by having them measure up to base link.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/1/2010 6:32:04 AM | message detail

From: voltch | #090
I never knew we based Xstats on games by having them measure up to base link.


The Base Link thing is pretty useless. Don't pay any attention to that. It's just there for silly people who like to do pointless Games vs. Characters comparisons.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/1/2010 6:33:43 AM | message detail
Also, stop comparing games and characters. I never once mentioned the Pokemon characters, as they're impossible to compare to the games. But I fully expect the games to disappoint relative to expectations, and will laugh with great mirth when Majora's Mask beats Gold/Silver/Crystal.

Great mirth!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/1/2010 6:34:29 AM | message detail

From: Lightning Strikes | #092
Also, stop comparing games and characters. I never once mentioned the Pokemon characters, as they're impossible to compare to the games. But I fully expect the games to disappoint relative to expectations, and will laugh with great mirth when Majora's Mask beats Gold/Silver/Crystal.

Great mirth!


Well, I think the whole "Performs better in 4-ways" argument is pretty silly anyway because we haven't seen much evidence of it yet.
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FFI3_Lightning | Posted 11/1/2010 6:35:43 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #077
Why? Galaxy 2? Why would that boost Galaxy 1? This isn't like characters where they get stronger with new releases. It's a different game altogether.


Of course it's gonna boost it..probably not by that much but it's certainly gonan boost it, it's friggin sequel of the same name. It's not gonna make it weaker is it?

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Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/1/2010 6:35:46 AM | message detail
You can't ignore my mirth Leon
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/1/2010 6:36:43 AM | message detail
Galaxy is weak. MM is not beating GSC. These are very simple things to understand.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/1/2010 6:37:03 AM | message detail

From: FFI3_Lightning | #094
Of course it's gonna boost it..probably not by that much but it's certainly gonan boost it, it's friggin sequel of the same name. It's not gonna make it weaker is it?


No, but it's not going to make it stronger either. Do we really think FFXIII boosted FFVII or something, and now FFVII could beat OoT in a rematch?

Well, maybe someone does, but yeah.

From: Lightning Strikes | #095
You can't ignore my mirth Leon


Man, I hope G/S/C loses as soon as possible! I don't want Pokemon to do well!

But I'm just trying to be objective.
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MoogleKupo141 | Posted 11/1/2010 6:37:20 AM | message detail
Of course it's gonna boost it..probably not by that much but it's certainly gonan boost it, it's friggin sequel of the same name. It's not gonna make it weaker is it?

It's not going to anything it. If had just been released this week, it would have an effect based on increased traffic from fans of the series, but however many months past its release we are? SMG2 should have somewhere in the neighborhood of absolutely no effect on SMG
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/1/2010 6:38:45 AM | message detail
Match XXVI: (8) Pokemon Ruby/Sapphire/Emerald vs. (9) Grand Theft Auto IV

Information

Name: Pokemon Ruby/Sapphire/Emerald
Year: 2003
Previous Performance: N/A

Name: Grand Theft Auto IV
Year: 2008
Previous Performance: SpC2k9 – 3rd in round 2

Analysis

While this match has Halo 3/SMS written all over it, Pokemon RSE has a much better chance at winning. Still that doesn’t excuse the board for taking Pokemon RSE with over 70%, though a lot of people have flipped over the decision since the contest has begun, but will their indecision cost them their battle points?

The third generation of Pokemon is considered to be the weakest. The games came out at a time when Pokemon was extremely hated and the game itself was met with mixed reactions between the fans. The release of Emerald and FireRed/LeafGreen helped the games a lot, but the damage was done plus when the Pokemon hate started to die down people came back to FireRed/LeafGreen instead of the third generation. Even though the hate is no longer there it hasn’t been filled with love either.

Grand Theft Auto IV is known as the most overrated game of the generation by many people due to the game being highly praised by reviewers. In the previous contest the game had a decent performance against Brawl in the first round, but dropped quite a bit with the addition of Call of Duty 4 despite Super Mario Galaxy also being added. This would suggest that Call of Duty 4 holds some SFF power over Grand Theft Auto IV or maybe it was because in the first round to most people there were only two options, Brawl or not-Brawl.

Last contest had Grand Theft Auto IV finishing pretty close to Pokemon DPP which suggests that RSE is in big trouble, but the one thing Pokemon RSE has going in favour would be a drop in strength for Grand Theft Auto IV and that is possible. Between 2008 and 2010 Niko Bellic took a hard hit in strength, but since the previous games contest was in 2009 how much of his strength loss between the years was before the game contest and how much was it after.

In 2008 Niko was only 5 months old which is usually not too far from around the time when characters have hit their peak strength before going downhill. Grand Theft Auto IV was a game that was quickly forgotten by the masses as the game failed to live up to hype, just take a look at some of the polls Grand Theft Auto IV was considered about equal to Metal Gear Solid 4 at the best game in the first half of the year. I feel that a majority of loss strength that Niko suffered was before the game contest in 2009 because games tend to take a sharp dive in strength after their first year. While it’s possible Grand Theft Auto IV has taken a hit since then it won’t be quite as close to the hit Niko suffered between character battles.

Like Mario Pokemon isn’t invincible and it can lose. RSE does have the better chance at winning than Sunshine did earlier this contest, but I feel that Grand Theft Auto IV will pull it off in a similar fashion that Halo 3 did. Pokemon does have the advantage of this being a day match, but time of day isn’t going to shift major percent points.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Grand Theft Auto IV > Pokemon RSE

charmander6000’s Prediction: Grand Theft Auto IV wins, 53.22% - 46.78%

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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 20/24 Today's Matches: SMG & GTA4
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/1/2010 6:41:04 AM | message detail
Oh right, forgot yesterday's chart:

Time | SSB Brawl | MKDS | Votes
0:05 | 82.50% | 17.50% | 697
1:00 | 82.81% | 17.19% | 7541
2:00 | 83.56% | 16.44% | 6446
3:00 | 83.60% | 16.40% | 6007
4:00 | 83.32% | 16.68% | 5287
5:00 | 83.64% | 16.36% | 4737
6:00 | 83.71% | 16.29% | 4303
7:00 | 82.19% | 17.81% | 3745
8:00 | 82.03% | 17.97% | 3478
9:00 | 83.10% | 16.90% | 3313
10:00 | 84.65% | 15.35% | 2997
11:00 | 84.07% | 15.93% | 2937
12:00 | 82.46% | 17.54% | 2605

You don't normally see a lot of deviations at high percentages, especially in a weekend match, so nothing much to see here.
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