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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 933

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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 10/31/2010 9:28:15 AM | message detail
So SMG and GTAIV were holding them both back, plain and simple.
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Why did I pick Brawl to win the contest?
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/31/2010 9:31:51 AM | message detail
PLAIN AND SIMPLE
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irriadin | Posted 10/31/2010 9:39:35 AM | message detail
I agree with the sentiment that we're not gonna know who'll win between Melee and Brawl until the day of the match.
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FFI3_Lightning | Posted 10/31/2010 9:40:31 AM | message detail
who is more likely to be antivoted? people said FFVII lost to OoT not because OoT was more popular but because FFVII was more hated.
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/31/2010 9:40:41 AM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #396
Brawl got 62% on CoD in R2 and an awesome 69% in R3, although the non-Nintendo competition and Stand Out Factor obviously helped Brawl (we saw the same thing help Zelda tremendously when it was up against MGS3, RE4, and WoW). If Melee actually approaches that second percentage in a 1v1, then yowza.


SSBB also had SMG to deal with in its first match with CoD4...though I think SSBB beat GTA4 worse there than R1 despite SMG, too, so I don't know how big of a detriment SMG really was.


Either way, this match is a fine counter to the meaningless comparisons we're gonna try making about SSBM/SSBB. SSBM facing Morrowind will hopefully tell us something about how the SSB-winner will compare with FFX and SSBM facing CoD4 should help a little with the SSB-match, though good luck getting something definitive -- especially if this idea of CoD going down recently is legit somehow. SSBB killing VC won't help either.

It's a game of patience for the match we probably care about the most.
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Greyfeld | Posted 10/31/2010 9:40:47 AM | message detail
lol of the 23 "perfect" brackets, only 9 have a remote chance of winning the contest, based solely on their winning pick. So I'm not too concerned at this point :P
Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/31/2010 9:49:58 AM | message detail
I want to say Melee=Brawl. It certainly seemed that way last year.

Who wins could very well be up to who's the bracket favourite.
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TheCodeisBosco | Posted 10/31/2010 9:51:30 AM | message detail
DANG!! Brawl is looking even better than Melee, if you ask me. I still think Melee will pull through, but killing MKDS is a lot more impressive than killing GH2, SFF or not.

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Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 10/31/2010 9:51:50 AM | message detail
Why the match started 1 hour earlier?
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/31/2010 9:55:08 AM | message detail
Why the match started 1 hour earlier?

It didn't start 1 hour earlier. You Europeans went back 1 hour because of DST, so I can understand why you thought it started 1 hour earlier. This site is hosted in the US and DST occurs one week after Europe goes through its DST change.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/31/2010 9:58:20 AM | message detail

From: Safer Sephiroth 777 | #409
Why the match started 1 hour earlier?


Daylight savings

Anyway

The way I see it, both Melee and Brawl are voted for by the same people. You've got a few people who hate Brawl, true, but htey're compensated by the people who haven't played Melee but have played Brawl. Now my theory goes that people who have only played Brawl but not Melee will vote for Melee due to being the predecessor to Brawl, but will vote for Brawl over it because that's the one they've actually played. So the question becomes "do the people who prefer Melee outnumber the people who haven't played it+the people who prefer Brawl". Now, the answer to that could very well be yes, but the more I think about this one the more I regret changing to Melee, especially since if it doesn't win my bracket is royally screwed.
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medicority | Posted 10/31/2010 9:59:42 AM | message detail
huh I totally forgot that I changed my pick to VC. well I guess I didn't let the fanboy in me take over.

having a perfect bracket halfway through round 1 doesn't mean a lot when you have MM or WoW winning the contest.
medicority | Posted 10/31/2010 10:01:00 AM | message detail
as for brawl vs melee I picked brawl because

A. a lot more people have wiis than game cubes
B. consequently brawl sold about twice as much as melee. 4.5 million vs 8.7 million

so I figured brawl would be more popular by sheer number of people that have played it.
Eeeevil Overlord | Posted 10/31/2010 10:01:19 AM | message detail
Happy to lose the point on VC/Disgaea. The better game won, that's what counts!
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Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 10/31/2010 10:09:11 AM | message detail
Oh so you go back 1 hour after a week that is happened here?Strange but okay.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/31/2010 10:13:37 AM | message detail

From: Eeeevil Overlord | #414
Happy to lose the point on VC/Disgaea. The better game won, that's what counts!


Ah, but when you got it right and the better game won.

That is true joy.

http://i54.tinypic.com/169s0w7.jpg

Beas posting again. I do love how the gurus got killed by the casuals again on that one, and VC wasn't even that much of an overall favourite. Honestly I knew it'd be close but I'm shocked Disgaea was such an overwhelming favourite.

Yes I'm very late on posting that second half!
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/31/2010 10:26:33 AM | message detail
Oh so you go back 1 hour after a week that is happened here?Strange but okay.

Yes, you got it correct. Until the US and Canada goes through the DST change, Europeans have 1 extra hour to vote in day matches before they start going to sleep.
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Gooper Blooper | Posted 10/31/2010 10:26:35 AM | message detail
I'm certain Mario Kart DS would beat the crap out of Guitar Hero II, but of course SFF had to mess up everything.

I dunno. I picked Brawl but I have this feeling Melee will win. No way to be totally certain until match day.
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pjbasis | Posted 10/31/2010 10:29:42 AM | message detail
I don't see why people crying THIS IS SUPPOSED TO BE SFF are thinking that could only work in Brawl's favor.

Perhaps MKDS has leeched some Nintendo support hmmm?
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 10/31/2010 10:37:45 AM | message detail
Brawl with 83% on MKDS?

LOL THAT MEANS BRAWL IS DOOMED TO WIN THE CONTEST AMIRITE GUYZ?
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Gooper Blooper | Posted 10/31/2010 10:41:41 AM | message detail
Brawl with 83% on MKDS?

LOL THAT MEANS BRAWL IS DOOMED TO WIN THE CONTEST AMIRITE GUYZ?


Completely. It needs at least 98% to even avoid the doubling.
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Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 10/31/2010 11:09:56 AM | message detail
Has ever been a match when someone/something won by over 90%?
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Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 10/31/2010 11:11:31 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1606
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/31/2010 11:21:53 AM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #396
Brawl got 62% on CoD in R2 and an awesome 69% in R3, although the non-Nintendo competition and Stand Out Factor obviously helped Brawl (we saw the same thing help Zelda tremendously when it was up against MGS3, RE4, and WoW). If Melee actually approaches that second percentage in a 1v1, then yowza.


Well, the first one was an underperformance, and the second one was probably an underperformance, so Melee needs to land somewhere in the middle, at the very least.
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Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 10/31/2010 11:22:12 AM | message detail
MAN!Over 95%?Okay I know it is Zelda but still...
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/31/2010 11:23:59 AM | message detail

From: Lightning Strikes | #416
Beas posting again. I do love how the gurus got killed by the casuals again on that one, and VC wasn't even that much of an overall favourite. Honestly I knew it'd be close but I'm shocked Disgaea was such an overwhelming favourite.


When Board 8 has no idea about either game, there tends to be a consensus pick, and everyone sort of flocks to that because it's the popular pick.
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Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 10/31/2010 11:26:57 AM | message detail
That's not necessarily limited to games/characters we don't know, though. Board 8 overwhelmingly supported Squall over Auron in CB8 despite almost everyone expecting the match to be a toss up (and it really did end up to be a close match).
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/31/2010 11:30:02 AM | message detail

From: Team Rocket Elite | #427
That's not necessarily limited to games/characters we don't know, though. Board 8 overwhelmingly supported Squall over Auron in CB8 despite almost everyone expecting the match to be a toss up (and it really did end up to be a close match).


Well, it also happens a lot when Board 8 isn't sure who will win. A lot of people started picking Squall, and so the rest who weren't sure flocked to it.
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Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 10/31/2010 11:30:37 AM | message detail
Well at the matches this board has lost:

RB VS Deus EX=36% got it right so the board is okay
SA2 VS SFIV=More than 70% got it right so the board got owned.I originally had SFIV too.
DS VS M9=54% got it correct so that is again okay
WC3 VS M=Less than 32% got it correct,the board is okay
NM VS FE=Over 70% got it right so the board got owned again
VC VS D=Around 58% got it right so meh.

So we have 2 matches that the prediction percentage was ver low so it is okay,2 that the prediction was around 50% so yeah and 2 matches that the prediction was over 70% which the board got owned.So it is not that bad.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/31/2010 11:37:23 AM | message detail
It's not just about the casual's percentage, but our percentage as well. Like, 80% of the gurus picked Disgaea. A massive 38% more than how many picked that overall. That has to be the board's worst loss so far.
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LOLContests | Posted 10/31/2010 11:37:54 AM | message detail
Mega Man 9 and Path of Radiance were the favorites on the board, IIRC.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/31/2010 11:38:00 AM | message detail

From: Lightning Strikes | #430
It's not just about the casual's percentage, but our percentage as well. Like, 80% of the gurus picked Disgaea. A massive 38% more than how many picked that overall. That has to be the board's worst loss so far.


LOL Sunshine/Halo 3
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/31/2010 11:43:42 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #432
LOL Sunshine/Halo 3


So it is, though more of us got that one right.

I didn't get that one though. -_-
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/31/2010 11:46:06 AM | message detail
Oh, and I meant to say.

That is more a testament to how shockingly we're doing in some of these matches relative to everyone else more than anything. A 50% gap? Seriously?
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FFI3_Lightning | Posted 10/31/2010 11:59:52 AM | message detail

From: medicority | #413
as for brawl vs melee I picked brawl because

A. a lot more people have wiis than game cubes
B. consequently brawl sold about twice as much as melee. 4.5 million vs 8.7 million

so I figured brawl would be more popular by sheer number of people that have played it.




You got your Melee''s numbers wrong. I think it sold 4 million in US alone, either way Brawl sold maybe 2 million more than melee max if that. Sales are irrelevant because both games were huge successes. Plus it's Gamefaqs....I think nostalgia is slighty favoured in some areas and this is where i think Melee will pull through.

But in the end it won't be a suprise whoever wins...unless one of them breaks 60% or something ridiculous like that.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/31/2010 12:46:11 PM | message detail
Yeah, sales numbers don't mean anything for Melee/Brawl.
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__Smurf__ | Posted 10/31/2010 1:02:11 PM | message detail
To be fair Sonic, Disgaea, Rock Band etc all kept it close so they justified it being a debated match. There was nothing embarrassing picking the wrong winner there since little separated them.

There WAS something wrong with the people who backed No Mercy because that got flat out humiliated.
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_foolmoron_ | Posted 10/31/2010 1:07:13 PM | message detail
Aww yeah my Valkyria pick launched me up 100 spots in the Guru list

I made the best risks. SFIV, Valkyria dominated, GTAIV, ToV, and UYA will also pull through eventually. If only RE5 had won, all my risks in round 1 would be correct.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/31/2010 2:37:53 PM | message detail

From: __Smurf__ | #437
To be fair Sonic, Disgaea, Rock Band etc all kept it close so they justified it being a debated match. There was nothing embarrassing picking the wrong winner there since little separated them.

There WAS something wrong with the people who backed No Mercy because that got flat out humiliated.


It's more the fact that they were such overwhelming favourites, largely due to arguments posted on the board, that makes it bad for us, and I say this having picked SA2 and Rock Band 2.

However, you're definitely right about the No Mercy pickers. I don't normally say this about results, but what were you thinking? And the people who picked it were so sure it would win, many saying PoR outright had no chance. I'm not normally the type to harp on people's mistakes, but that's definitely as bad as it gets.
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Julian_Caesar | Posted 10/31/2010 2:47:16 PM | message detail
What about F-Zero vs Dragon Age? I've got the next three battles picked (including this one) and I'm pretty sure about the next 8-9 after that one...but i have no clue about that match. Does anyone have any sort of idea as to how that one will turn out?

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KinzoUshiromiya | Posted 10/31/2010 2:48:38 PM | message detail

From: Lightning Strikes | #439
I don't normally say this about results, but what were you thinking?


Fanboy throwaway pick. Because No Mercy is worth it tbqh.


Also Melee confirmed to win the contest yet?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/31/2010 2:49:19 PM | message detail

From: KinzoUshiromiya | #441
Fanboy throwaway pick. Because No Mercy is worth it tbqh.


Listen to this man.
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/31/2010 2:50:44 PM | message detail
Back after a 2-day retreat. What's happened in contestland?
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
red sox 777 | Posted 10/31/2010 2:57:28 PM | message detail
Reactions:

Pokemon DPP > Metroid Fusion: Expected, DPP didn't do quite as well as I'd expected.
Fire Emblem > WWF No Mercy: Shocking. Fire Emblem winning isn't shocking, but it breaking 70% is.
Valkyria Chronicles > Disgaea: Surprising to me, not too surprising.
Brawl > Mario Kart DS: Okay, hard to tell which game is more impressive between Melee and Brawl.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
PoncedeLeonhart | Posted 10/31/2010 3:00:04 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #443
Back after a 2-day retreat. What's happened in contestland?


People are starting to worry about G/S/C after D/P/P essentially confirmed that what it did in the last contest was legit and not really much LFF between it and Galaxy.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/31/2010 3:04:17 PM | message detail
Pokemon DPP > Metroid Fusion: Expected, DPP didn't do quite as well as I'd expected.

This match result also has us worrying about RSE's chances to defeat GTAIV, even in a day match.
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Magic8Squall | Posted 10/31/2010 3:05:43 PM | message detail
GTAIV always had a good chance of winning that match though.
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XxSoulxX | Posted 10/31/2010 3:09:25 PM | message detail
GTAIV/RSE is a funny match because neither game are strong. The battle is based on who can suck it up the least.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 10/31/2010 3:11:04 PM | message detail

From: XxSoulxX | #442
GTAIV/RSE is a funny match because neither game are strong. The battle is based on who can suck it up the least.


That kind of match already burned me yesterday :(
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 10/31/2010 3:20:25 PM | message detail
omg guys I just remembered

ryo hazuki was in Sonic & Banjo racing

that means he's got more recent appeal then TP

uh ohhhhh
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