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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 932

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NoDicePwn | Posted 10/29/2010 9:28:13 PM | message detail
Fusion also is up 52.7% in Europe. It should get some cuts overnight.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/29/2010 9:28:43 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4089&region=EUR

The last Metroid is in captivity. And drinking some tea.

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DFF
Gooper Blooper | Posted 10/29/2010 9:29:38 PM | message detail
I think this may mean a lot more for RSE than for GSC but who knows.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/29/2010 9:29:41 PM | message detail
By the way, KP, it's really weird that you'd entertain the thought of Fusion possibly winning while maintaining a staunch defense of GSC. No matter how much stronger GSC is than Diamon/Pearl, Majora's Mask would be a lot stronger than Metroid Fusion.
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AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 10/29/2010 9:30:06 PM | message detail
I still don't think it happens, but I've been hoping really hard Majora's Mask beats Pokemon.

I know there's the whole anti-Zelda backlash, but I loved Majora's Mask and I'd really like to see it go far, even if my bracket doesn't have it.
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 10/29/2010 9:30:33 PM | message detail
And DPP recovers.

This match is now boring again.
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Not Wylvane
Haste_2 | Posted 10/29/2010 9:30:47 PM | message detail
I still haven't gotten around to playing Fusion... I am sure it is fantastic. Super Metroid's one of my favorite games. But, as one who skipped the RSE generation, DPP is my all-time favorite handheld game... nonetheless, I am pleased to see Fusion getting such a respectable score.

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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/29/2010 9:31:55 PM | message detail
Honestly, after seeing Call of Duty 4 underperform, D/P/P being not far from Tales of Symphonia isn't that surprisingly.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/29/2010 9:32:40 PM | message detail
Fusion also is up 52.7% in Europe. It should get some cuts overnight.

Again, there are very few votes from Europe so the percentages can change quite a bit. I always remember Metroid/Samus being weak in Europe.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3762&region=EUR
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3810&region=EUR
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/29/2010 9:32:57 PM | message detail
Fusion is one of the most linear Metroids, as far as I know. The fanbase doesn't give it much love because it's tough to circuit break and go all crazy. That was fine with me, though.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/29/2010 9:32:59 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #154
By the way, KP, it's really weird that you'd entertain the thought of Fusion possibly winning while maintaining a staunch defense of GSC. No matter how much stronger GSC is than Diamon/Pearl, Majora's Mask would be a lot stronger than Metroid Fusion.


I entertained the thought of Fusion winning because DP is not GSC. D/P lost to Super Mario Galaxy. GSC almost beat Metal Gear Solid. There is an absolute world of difference between the two.

RE5 and GoW doing well also helped.

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DFF
pjbasis | Posted 10/29/2010 9:33:13 PM | message detail
Guys, calm down.

Gen I and II are ENTIRELY different beasts from III and IV.

Calm down...GSC got this.



RSE on the other hand....haha no.




And after some thinking, I think I might fall to MW2 > Dissidia.
MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/29/2010 9:33:51 PM | message detail
I'm still extremely confused at how MM got a 1 seed. Maybe it will surprise us.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/29/2010 9:34:32 PM | message detail

From: MegatokyoEd | #163
I'm still extremely confused at how MM got a 1 seed.


DRONES

Maybe it will surprise us.


DROOOOOOOOOOOONES
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/29/2010 9:35:12 PM | message detail
Yeah and maybe Galaxy will surprise us it's not like every result so far points towards it being ass

OH WAIT

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DFF
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 10/29/2010 9:35:33 PM | message detail
I'm more confused as to how Metroid Prime and Super Mario Galaxy got 1 seeds (especially since the latter was one of the four most nominated games in the bracket...huh?).
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I have no idea how Metroid: Other M got any scores lower than 60%.
NoDicePwn | Posted 10/29/2010 9:36:23 PM | message detail
Yay pokemon is back to sucking it up now
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AppreciateTrees | Posted 10/29/2010 9:36:37 PM | message detail
Wait, people here seriously went GSC > FFX??

I like GSC over MM and WW, but over FFX and even MSG?
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kinsho3 | Posted 10/29/2010 9:38:14 PM | message detail
Dammit, now I'm worried about R/S/E. It being a day match may actually save it now.......
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/29/2010 9:38:29 PM | message detail
It's got MGS in the day. It would be humiliating to beat two Zeldas only to lose against MGS3/4 in a day match. Really humiliating.
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NoDicePwn | Posted 10/29/2010 9:40:49 PM | message detail
These are some odd updates.

51%
59%
51%
61%
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/29/2010 9:41:23 PM | message detail
The 2 good Pokemon updates were both a combination of Pokemon spiking while Metroid collapses.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 10/29/2010 9:41:43 PM | message detail
Uh guys...TF2, CoD4, and DPP have all disappointed in their matches. Bad sign for Galaxy?
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I have no idea how Metroid: Other M got any scores lower than 60%.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/29/2010 9:43:13 PM | message detail
Galaxy has one of the most set paths in the bracket, so it doesn't really matter. GTAIV is not beating Mario Galaxy 1v1.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/29/2010 9:43:40 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #172
Galaxy has one of the most set paths in the bracket, so it doesn't really matter. GTAIV is not beating Mario Galaxy 1v1.


Why?

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DFF
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 10/29/2010 9:45:54 PM | message detail
So yeah, I just went through the bracket and every veteran game released in '07 or later that we've seen in action has disappointed, with only two exceptions:

-Fallout 3, which was against a PS3 exclusive in a contest where PS3 exclusives have been bombing left and right, and its percent may have been artificially inflated by New Vegas's timely release.
-Halo 3, and even that was probably a disappointment to most of the casuals since one of the biggest FPSs of the decade barely broke 52% on...a third-tier GAMECUBE game???

So Melee will beat Brawl. It's confirmed now, and my bracket is going down the tubes in later rounds. Oh yes it is.
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I have no idea how Metroid: Other M got any scores lower than 60%.
The Mana Sword | Posted 10/29/2010 9:46:21 PM | message detail
In before IT'S FREAKING MARIO.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/29/2010 9:47:15 PM | message detail
Found it.

GTAIV vs. Brawl in Round 1: 35.76%
CoD4 vs. Brawl in Round 2: 38.24%

Using that, GTAIV gets 46.75% CoD4. This actually would outperform what Galaxy got against CoD4 in Round 1 (44.3%).


Galaxy does have the benefit of a day match, and GTAIV has probably fallen off a bit since then. But if GTAIV does well against RSE, and Galaxy does not so great (which signs are pointing to), why not?

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DFF
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/29/2010 9:47:42 PM | message detail
Just trust me on this one. I wasn't even happy with GTAIII's performance; that doesn't inspire me with confidence in IV, which should be weaker. I mean, I'd take Halo 3 to beat GTAIV, and Halo 3 didn't exactly kill Sunshine (52.5%). Plus, Galaxy has the 1-seed on its side. It'll take GTA.
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 10/29/2010 9:48:20 PM | message detail

From: The Mana Sword | #177
In before IT'S FREAKING MARIO.


Because it worked out so well for Sunshine!
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Not Wylvane
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/29/2010 9:48:27 PM | message detail
Man. I thought GTA3's performance was great, and I would take GTA4>3 any day.

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DFF
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/29/2010 9:48:49 PM | message detail
Probably because Galaxy getting SFFed to hell still 46% on GTAIV.

Unless you think Galaxy massively overperformed in the first round.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/29/2010 9:49:39 PM | message detail
*votes, sees results*

R/S/E is boned.

LOL Biolizard
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 10/29/2010 9:49:45 PM | message detail
And now which veterans from '04-'06 have we seen so far? Well:

-Okami, which impressed.
-Tales of Symphonia, which disappointed.
-God of War, which was against Left 4 Dead.
-Half-Life 2, which may have been SFFing its opponent.

So what's going to happen to the rest of the '04-'06 veterans?
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I have no idea how Metroid: Other M got any scores lower than 60%.
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/29/2010 9:50:03 PM | message detail
Oh right, and LOL Galaxy
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/29/2010 9:50:44 PM | message detail
Uh, I didn't use any comparisons with Galaxy against Brawl. Just GTAIV against Brawl and CoD4 against Brawl. Unless you think D/P SFFd it in R1 or something, which today doesn't really support!

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DFF
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 10/29/2010 9:52:23 PM | message detail
GTAIV has a decent chance of pulling off the upset but uh.

And I hope Galaxy can at least break 40% on Twilight Princess; it shouldn't even lose that match! Unfortunately, we know it will, nuts.
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I have no idea how Metroid: Other M got any scores lower than 60%.
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/29/2010 9:52:24 PM | message detail
I was responding to "Why doesn't GTAIV have a good chance against Galaxy?"

which, you know, failing to break 55% on a severely SFFed opponent would imply.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/29/2010 9:53:36 PM | message detail
GTAIV also did significantly worse against Brawl that round than in did before, right after CoD4 was added. Not a coincidence.

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DFF
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 10/29/2010 9:55:50 PM | message detail
Not to mention it's funny how badly SFFd Galaxy was by Brawl since Galaxy is basically the unanimous professional pick for best Wii game (well, maybe not now that Galaxy 2 is out, but whatever). The Nintendo Power staff, when compiling their "Best 20 Games on Each Nintendo System", unanimously voted Galaxy as the best Wii game, which didn't happen with any other system. Wowzers.

Twilight Princess and Brawl are closer to Metroid Prime 3 than to Super Mario Galaxy IMO. They probably have the same distance between Galaxy and Other M, for what it's worth. But those are just my opinions.
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I have no idea how Metroid: Other M got any scores lower than 60%.
AppreciateTrees | Posted 10/29/2010 9:56:03 PM | message detail
This makes me worried about RSE but definitely not about GSC. I hear, "they all started sucking after GSC" like 50 times a day everyday.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/29/2010 10:04:43 PM | message detail
Looks like this match will set a record for the lowest vote totals of the contest, a record currently held by Perfect Dark/Conker. 6444 votes after the first hour, where as Perfect Dark/Conker had 7021 after the first hour.

I guess being a handheld vs. handheld match will lead to bad vote totals. It doesn't seem like there's any kind of SFF here, since SFF/LFF matches also suffer from bad vote totals. Although this match is Nintendo vs. Nintendo, so that could also be a contributing factor too.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/29/2010 10:05:28 PM | message detail
I might be remembering wrong, but didn't Prime/WW have crappy votals too?
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 10/29/2010 10:06:29 PM | message detail
http://kotaku.com/5676889/duke-nukem-stripped-from-upcoming-duke-nukem-games

so Duke Nukem just lost his three DS/PSP games

and is being replaced

by a character

named

CAM NASH

...

CAM NASH

...

CAM NASH FOR CBIX
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/29/2010 10:06:54 PM | message detail
I'll nominate him.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/29/2010 10:07:07 PM | message detail
Cam Nash Forever
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/29/2010 10:08:16 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #178
Galaxy does have the benefit of a day match


Too bad Galaxy's day vote sucks! It shouldn't lose to GTA IV, but it'll just show how much Galaxy sucks...still.

And I'm not sure why people are all "Oh no G/S/C doomed" out of this match. D/P/P looked bad last time, remember?
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/29/2010 10:10:48 PM | message detail
It might be a bit early, but I've created the Top 5 lists for the contest so far. I'll upgrade them to top 10 when the round it over. Hopefully I didn't miss anything.

Top 5 Biggest Blowouts
1. Super Smash Bros. Melee – 87.16% vs. Guitar Hero II – 12.84% (R1) – 74.32%
2. Fallout 3 – 81.00% vs. inFamous – 19.00% (R1) – 62.00%
3. Half-Life 2 – 74.48% vs. Left 4 Dead 2 – 25.52% (R1) – 48.96%
4. Metroid Prime – 73.34% vs. Star Ocean 3 – 26.66% (R1) – 46.68%
5. Batman: AA – 72.50% vs. Psychonauts – 27.50% (R1) – 45.00%

Top 5 Biggest Night Vote Gaps
1. Super Smash Bros. Melee – 35469 vs. Guitar Hero II – 5223 (R1) – 30246
2. Fallout 3 – 33402 vs. inFamous – 7837 (R1) – 25565
3. Metroid Prime – 30391 vs. Star Ocean 3 – 11050 (R1) – 19340
4. Batman: AA – 28821 vs. Psychonauts – 10933 (R1) – 17888
5. Perfect Dark – 22647 vs. Conker’s BFD – 12777 (R1) – 9870

Top 5 Biggest Day Vote Gaps
1. Half-Life 2 – 35766 vs. Left 4 Dead 2 – 12254 (R1) – 23512
2. Okami – 35156 vs. No More Heroes – 14074 (R1) – 21082
3. God of War – 33027 vs. Left 4 Dead – 17556 (R1) – 15471
4. Devil May Cry 3 – 33538 vs. Mother 3 – 18174 (R1) – 15364
5. Halo: Combat Evolved – 32794 vs. Ninja Gaiden – 18090 (R1) – 14704

Top 5 Closest Matches
1. Team Fortress 2 – 50.03% vs. Fable – 49.97% (R1) – 0.06%
2. Morrowind – 50.45% vs. Warcraft II – 49.55% (R1) – 0.90%
3. Street Fighter IV – 50.75% vs. Sonic Adventure 2 – 49.25% (R1) – 1.50%
4. Deus Ex – 50.76% vs. Rock Band 2 – 49.24% (R1) – 1.52%
5. Tales of Symphonia – 52.17% vs. Resident Evil 5 – 47.83% (R1) – 4.34%

Top 5 Smallest Night Vote Gaps
1. Tales of Symphonia – 20805 vs. Resident Evil 5 – 19077 (R1) – 1728
2. Halo 3 – 22476 vs. Super Mario Sunshine – 20315 (R1) – 2161
3. Mega Man 9 – 20447 vs. Demon’s Souls – 18134 (R1) – 2313
4. Uncharted 2 – 23433 vs. Legend of Dragoon – 17393 (R1) – 6040
5. Grand Theft Auto III – 22576 vs. LittleBigPlanet – 13847 (R1) – 8729

Top 5 Smallest Day Vote Gaps
1. Team Fortress 2 – 30893 vs. Fable – 30856 (R1) – 37
2. Morrowind – 25522 vs. Warcraft III – 25066 (R1) – 456
3. Deus Ex – 25117 vs. Rock Band 2 – 24365 (R1) – 752
4. Street Fighter IV – 27481 vs. Sonic Adventure 2 – 26673 (R1) – 808
5. CoD4: Modern Warfare – 28969 vs. PoP: Sands of Time – 17075 (R1) – 11894

Top 5 Most Popular Night Polls
1. Halo 3 vs. Super Mario Sunshine (R1) – 42791
2. Metroid Prime vs. Star Ocean 3 (R1) – 41441
3. Fallout 3 vs. inFamous (R1) – 41239
4. Uncharted 2 vs. Legend of Dragoon (R1) – 40826
5. Super Smash Bros. Melee vs. Guitar Hero II (R1) – 40692

Top 5 Most Popular Day Polls
1. Team Fortress 2 vs. Fable (R1) – 61749
2. Street Fighter IV vs. Sonic Adventure 2 (R1) – 54154
3. Devil May Cry 3 vs. Mother 3 (R1) – 51712
4. Halo: Combat Evolved vs. Ninja Gaiden (R1) – 50884
5. Morrowind vs. Warcraft III (R1) - 50588

Top 5 Least Popular Night Polls
1. Perfect Dark vs. Conker’s BFD (R1) – 35424
2. Grand Theft Auto III vs. LittleBigPlanet (R1) – 36423
3. Mega Man 9 vs. Demon’s Souls (R1) – 38581
4. Batman: AA vs. Psychonauts (R1) – 39754
5. Tales of Symphonia vs. Resident Evil 5 (R1) – 39882

Top 5 Least Popular Day Polls
1. CoD4: Modern Warfare vs. PoP: Sands of Time (R1) – 46044
2. Half-Life 2 vs. Left 4 Dead 2 (R1) – 48020
3. Okami vs. No More Heroes (R1) – 49230
4. Deus Ex vs. Rock Band 2 (R1) – 49482
5. God of War vs. Left 4 Dead (R1) – 59583

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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 17/20 Today's Matches: Pokemon DPP & FE: PoR
charmander6000 | Posted 10/29/2010 10:10:59 PM | message detail
Top 5 Highest Individual Night Votes
1. Super Smash Bros. Melee (R1) – 35469
2. Fallout 3 (R1) – 33402
3. Metroid Prime (R1) – 30391
4. Batman: AA (R1) – 28821
5. Uncharted 2 (R1) – 23433

Top 5 Highest Individual Day Votes
1. Half-Life 2 (R1) – 35766
2. Okami (R1) – 35156
3. Devil May Cry 3 (R1) – 33538
4. God of War (R1) – 33027
5. Halo: Combat Evolved (R1) – 32794

Top 5 Lowest Individual Night Votes
1. Guitar Hero II (R1) – 5223
2. inFamous (R1) – 7837
3. Psychonauts (R1) – 10933
4. Star Ocean 3 (R1) – 11050
5. Conker’s BFD (R1) – 12777

Top 5 Lowest Individual Day Votes
1. Left 4 Dead 2 (R1) – 12254
2. No More Heroes (R1) – 14074
3. PoP: Sands of Time (R1) – 17075
4. Left 4 Dead (R1) – 17556
5. Ninja Gaiden (R1) – 18090

Top 5 Most Impressive Night Losers
1. Super Mario Sunshine (R1) – 20315
2. Resident Evil 5 (R1) – 19077
3. Demon’s Souls (R1) – 18134
4. Legend of Dragoon (R1) – 17393
5. LittleBigPlanet (R1) – 13847

Top 5 Most Impressive Day Losers
1. Fable (R1) – 30856
2. Sonic Adventure 2 (R1) – 26673
3. Warcraft III (R1) – 25066
4. Rock Band 2 (R1) – 24365
5. Mother 3 (R1) – 18174

Top 5 Least Impressive Night Winners
1. Mega Man 9 (R1) – 20447
2. Tales of Symphonia (R1) – 20805
3. Halo 3 (R1) – 22476
4. Grand Theft Auto III (R1) – 22576
5. Perfect Dark (R1) – 22647

Top 5 Least Impressive Day Winners
1. Deus Ex (R1) – 25117
2. Morrowind (R1) – 25522
3. Street Fighter IV (R1) – 27481
4. CoD4: Modern Warfare (R1) – 28969
5. Team Fortress 2 (R1) – 30893

Top 5 Easiest Matches to Predict
1. Fallout 3 vs. inFamous (R1) – 93.66%
2. Metroid Prime vs. Star Ocean 3 (R1) – 92.44%
3. Super Smash Bros. Melee vs. Guitar Hero II (R1) – 90.66%
4. CoD4: Modern Warfare vs. PoP: Sands of Time (R1) – 89.03%
5. Batman: AA vs. Psychonauts (R1) – 84.80%

Top 5 Hardest Matches to Predict
1. Morrowind vs. Warcraft III (R1) – 32.76%
2. Deus Ex vs. Rock Band 2 (R1) – 36.61%
3. Tales of Symphonia vs. Resident Evil 5 (R1) – 43.87%
4. Mega Man 9 vs. Demon’s Souls (R1) – 54.91%
5. Team Fortress 2 vs. Fable (R1) – 61.39%


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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 17/20 Today's Matches: Pokemon DPP & FE: PoR
charmander6000 | Posted 10/29/2010 10:14:20 PM | message detail
5. God of War vs. Left 4 Dead (R1) – 59583

Should be 50583
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 17/20 Today's Matches: Pokemon DPP & FE: PoR