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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 930

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transients | Posted 10/27/2010 4:12:30 PM | message detail
dang, you're right. Prime doesn't have a great day vote either though.

L4D is more of a 360 game than a PC game -- or at least it's more of a 360 game than Half-Life 2 is. I'd expect it to be a good day vote game. Bioshock's another game that feels like it should be popular with the night vote but it shines in the day. that's just how 360 shooters are.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/27/2010 4:15:34 PM | message detail
Well, Prime in a day match pretty much *has* to be stronger than Prime in a match where Europe+Asia for an hour matter for like 50% of the vote.
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/27/2010 4:19:13 PM | message detail
While it's 50% of the vote for the hour, the hour alone brings in the worst vote total.
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GotD Bracket: 12/14 Today's Matches: GTA3 & HL2
creativename | Posted 10/27/2010 4:26:40 PM | message detail
So NoDicePwn is Albion? This Dissidia hype from him makes so much more sense now...

Didn't Albion always used to put "Albion" in his sig?

From: TheCodeisBosco | #203
You have some good points about Battlefront II - though the "It's Star Wars" factor didn't really help Darth Revan earlier this year - but personally, I think BioShock will pull through.


Well, in retrospect, Revan actually ended up stronger than even our highest expectations for him. No one realized Terra wasn't complete crap anymore. Due to - ironically - Dissidia boost, presumably.

But yes, I'd be pretty surprised if Bioshock lost there.

From: WarThaNemesis2 | #252
Well, Prime in a day match pretty much *has* to be stronger than Prime in a match where Europe+Asia for an hour matter for like 50% of the vote.


I haven't looked at Prime's trends, but this is actually not the case with Samus. Everyone always assumes she's bad in night matches because of that hour. However in actuality, she's one of the most balanced characters ever, because of her strong early vote. Like charmander said, her bad hours in the night aren't important hours, whereas the Power Hour draws in huge vote totals. It's a question of "1st 12 hours vs. 2nd 12 hours", not "night vs. day".
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paerarru | Posted 10/27/2010 4:27:43 PM | message detail
Hello, contest wise ones.

I actually have a contest related question.

You folks might have already figured this one out. Probably.

Do you think a 4 seed will be beat? ...how about a 3 seed?

How safe is KOTOR from DMC, do you think? Don't you think there's a good chance DMC will beat it?

Thank you. I'm only a mote.
NoDicePwn | Posted 10/27/2010 4:28:57 PM | message detail
I think there is one thing we've learned today, though... Half Life 2 is unlucky to draw a day match with Prime. Man this ASV is atrocious
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 10/27/2010 4:32:21 PM | message detail

From: paerarru | #055
Hello, contest wise ones.

I actually have a contest related question.

You folks might have already figured this one out. Probably.

Do you think a 4 seed will be beat? ...how about a 3 seed?

How safe is KOTOR from DMC, do you think? Don't you think there's a good chance DMC will beat it?

Thank you. I'm only a mote.


Unles KOTOR MASSIVELY tanks on the switch from 4ways to 1v1s, it should school DMC. DMC3 just got done sucking against a game not released outside Japan, after all.
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NoDicePwn | Posted 10/27/2010 4:32:25 PM | message detail
Didn't Albion always used to put "Albion" in his sig?

I normally do that with new accounts till people start to know who I am. I figured I've been on this account long enough that people know its me.
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TheCodeisBosco | Posted 10/27/2010 4:36:10 PM | message detail
I'd expect it to be a good day vote game.

Left 4 Dead actually seems to have a really good day vote. It gained a decent amount of % against God of War during the ASV, and Ellis managed to do the same against the very day-oriented Shepard. And, of course, L4D2 is in the process of shaving quite a bit of percentage off HL2's lead.

Even still, though, I think HL2 is doing well for itself here. I'm still feeling good about taking it over Prime, though God of War is making me a bit nervous.

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paerarru | Posted 10/27/2010 4:59:31 PM | message detail
Unles KOTOR MASSIVELY tanks on the switch from 4ways to 1v1s, it should school DMC. DMC3 just got done sucking against a game not released outside Japan, after all.

I see. That makes sense. DMC didn't show much strength.

So, do you think all the 3 seed and 4 seed matches are pretty much guaranteed for the first round, then?
charmander6000 | Posted 10/27/2010 5:09:19 PM | message detail
So, do you think all the 3 seed and 4 seed matches are pretty much guaranteed for the first round, then?

Doing a quick look it seems like it, but some people think Animal Crossing has a chance against World of Warcraft because its playership is pretty low (35% I think) and it gets anti-voted.

Personally I think less than 35% of the site has played Animal Crossing.
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GotD Bracket: 12/14 Today's Matches: GTA3 & HL2
Haste_2 | Posted 10/27/2010 5:12:52 PM | message detail
Looks like HL2 is going to end just below 75%. That's a bit more reasonable than early on.

Okay, enough with Half-Life 2, Metroid Prime, and Fallout 3.

If you had to choose one of the following, which would you choose? Which seems the most ridiculous?

Zelda: TP > Smash Bros. winner
Kingdom Hearts winner > Zelda:TP
Majora's Mask > GSC
GTAIV > Mario Galaxy

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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 10/27/2010 5:13:24 PM | message detail

From: Haste_2 | #062
Kingdom Hearts winner > Zelda:TP


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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 10/27/2010 5:13:46 PM | message detail
Logically speaking? KH Winner>TP

As a fanboy? MM>GSC

Never happening? GTAIV>Galaxy
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/27/2010 5:14:18 PM | message detail
Kingdom Hearts winner > Zelda:TP

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GotD Bracket: 12/14 Today's Matches: GTA3 & HL2
IngmarBirdman | Posted 10/27/2010 5:27:11 PM | message detail
Integrated circuits used to be good... Then video games happened! OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOoh...

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The Real Truth | Posted 10/27/2010 6:09:25 PM | message detail
3 more hours
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/27/2010 6:13:39 PM | message detail

From: paerarru | #055
Hello, contest wise ones.

I actually have a contest related question.

You folks might have already figured this one out. Probably.

Do you think a 4 seed will be beat? ...how about a 3 seed?

How safe is KOTOR from DMC, do you think? Don't you think there's a good chance DMC will beat it?

Thank you. I'm only a mote.


Braid has a shot at Persona, that's about it. KotOR > DMC is a mortal lock.
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TheCodeisBosco | Posted 10/27/2010 6:14:04 PM | message detail
Zelda: TP > Smash Bros. winner

In my opinion, that's about as likely as Tony Hawk 2 > Final Fantasy X.

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Half-Life 2 > Metroid Prime "aww yeah"
Pondos | Posted 10/27/2010 6:19:37 PM | message detail

From: TheCodeisBosco | #069
Zelda: TP > Smash Bros. winner

In my opinion, that's about as likely as Tony Hawk 2 > Final Fantasy X.


Yet it's still more likely than GTAIV > SMG
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/27/2010 6:24:57 PM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #068
Braid has a shot at Persona


Oh, how I wish this was true.
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transients | Posted 10/27/2010 6:27:11 PM | message detail
I don't see why SMG is untouchable there. if it can lose to COD4, it has a shot at losing to GTA4.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/27/2010 6:40:13 PM | message detail

From: HaRRicH | #071
Oh, how I wish this was true.


I still don't get why people are so high on Persona. So it managed to beat SF4 in a format it should excel in, big whoop. And Mega Man 9 basically disproved any of that "downloaded game = weak" garbage
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transients | Posted 10/27/2010 6:40:53 PM | message detail
...but Mega Man 9 is weak
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xyzzy
charmander6000 | Posted 10/27/2010 6:41:36 PM | message detail
It barely lost to GTAIV with SSBB in the poll.

Then again GTAIV's performance against SSBB went down when you added CoD4 despite adding SMG.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 12/14 Today's Matches: GTA3 & HL2
charmander6000 | Posted 10/27/2010 6:42:27 PM | message detail
MM9 isn't that strong plus Braid is nowhere near MM9.
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creativename | Posted 10/27/2010 6:51:12 PM | message detail

From: NoDicePwn | #258
I normally do that with new accounts till people start to know who I am. I figured I've been on this account long enough that people know its me.


I guess everybody other than me probably did :) That's what I get for not being around for any of the off-season. (or most of the in-season even, for that matter...)

From: charmander6000 | #301
Doing a quick look it seems like it, but some people think Animal Crossing has a chance against World of Warcraft because its playership is pretty low (35% I think) and it gets anti-voted.


Where are you getting the playership number from? Is this from data that's available via My Games or something? I'd love to see this for other games.
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creativename | Posted 10/27/2010 6:51:57 PM | message detail
Oh wait. That's probably just from some "have you played warcraft" poll isn't it? Duh. Never mind then :)
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/27/2010 6:52:01 PM | message detail
There was a "Have you played WoW" poll of the day.
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 10/27/2010 6:52:20 PM | message detail
Tifa gets Dissidia art and they're still just as big!

http://cache-03.gawkerassets.com/assets/images/9/2010/10/tifa_02.jpg

Other art:

http://cache.gawkerassets.com/assets/images/9/2010/10/tifa_01.jpg
http://cache-01.gawkerassets.com/assets/images/9/2010/10/cloud.jpg
http://cache-02.gawkerassets.com/assets/images/9/2010/10/sephiroth.jpg
http://cache-02.gawkerassets.com/assets/images/9/2010/10/cecil_02.jpg

*can't wait for next character battle omg*
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NoDicePwn | Posted 10/27/2010 6:56:57 PM | message detail
Braid is gonna make Persona look like an elite game. Thats how bad Persona is gonna beat that thing. Braid will be lucky to get 25%
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/27/2010 7:00:36 PM | message detail
I've been out all day, and... can't say I'm happy about this HL2 day vote. Eesh.
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redrocket | Posted 10/27/2010 7:05:05 PM | message detail
I don't see why SMG is untouchable there. if it can lose to COD4, it has a shot at losing to GTA4.

lol wut?

COD4 would probably double GTA4.

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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/27/2010 7:07:04 PM | message detail

From: redrocket | #083
I don't see why SMG is untouchable there. if it can lose to COD4, it has a shot at losing to GTA4.

lol wut?

COD4 would probably double GTA4.


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3492

I don't think SMG is losing to GTAIV, but I don't think it'll look good either.

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Pondos | Posted 10/27/2010 7:20:12 PM | message detail
I think you guys are all missing the fact that GTAIV won't get past Pokemon.
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transients | Posted 10/27/2010 7:22:10 PM | message detail
yeah SMG should beat GTA4. but it's more likely that it'd lose than TP beating a Smash game.
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xyzzy
charmander6000 | Posted 10/27/2010 7:28:12 PM | message detail
I think you guys are all missing the fact that GTAIV won't get past Pokemon.

Unless you expect GTAIV to take a nasty drop since last contest (not a crazy idea) then you'd have to give RSE a chance against SMG, especially if you think it'll easy get over GTAIV and give GSC the win in this contest.
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GotD Bracket: 12/14 Today's Matches: GTA3 & HL2
red sox 777 | Posted 10/27/2010 7:29:41 PM | message detail
TP beating a Smash game isn't unthinkable. It got, what, 47% on Brawl directly last time?
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/27/2010 7:31:50 PM | message detail
Actually, here's something interesting.

GTAIV vs. Brawl in Round 1: 35.76%
CoD4 vs. Brawl in Round 2: 38.24%

Using that, GTAIV gets 46.75% CoD4. This actually would outperform what Galaxy got against CoD4 in Round 1 (44.3%).

Is this GTA4 vs. Galaxy a day or a night match?

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DFF
HaRRicH | Posted 10/27/2010 7:33:01 PM | message detail
Braid has good reason to boost since its terrible showing in 2008's GotY since it's been released on the PS3 and PC since then, and it's no longer at its once-controversial price either (though every game that's not new gets a price-cut). It's also only one seed under MM9, which is far and away the biggest downloadable title here (though seeding =/= strength and they're both low seeds). If MM9 can beat DS, Braid's breaking 25% with ease...

...but there's little way I see it winning. P4's gonna be weak, but Braid's kind of amazing by making it it into the contest by skipping the vote-ins. Tim was also one of the weakest characters we've seen since SB led the contests, though that was before Braid went multi-platform. Either way, it's gonna be bad. It's just a matter of how much worse off than P4 it is...and if it somehow beats P4, fantastic, but that won't mean anything close to it being strong.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/27/2010 7:34:14 PM | message detail
If Braid beats Persona 4, does that mean Braid > Street Fighter 4? :P
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transients | Posted 10/27/2010 7:34:25 PM | message detail
a night match.
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creativename | Posted 10/27/2010 7:34:57 PM | message detail

From: Pondos | #405
I think you guys are all missing the fact that GTAIV won't get past Pokemon.


Yeah, I thought Pokemon was favored over GTA4? Why are people suddenly talking like GTA4>Pokemon is a given? I have Pokemon there, then Galaxy beating it. How should that Pokemon's strength compare to the other Pokemons?

I don't think Pokemon>GTA4 means GSC wins the contest. In fact I think there's very little chance of GSC winning the contest because it won't beat the Smash winner - but I could see it being MGS4 and FFX.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/27/2010 7:36:05 PM | message detail

From: transients | #092
a night match.


Heh, it might actually be possible then. Although SMG seems to be a night game too, so that doesn't mean as much.

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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/27/2010 7:36:35 PM | message detail
To me, GTAIV/RSE is Halo 3/Sunshine Part 2.

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creativename | Posted 10/27/2010 7:36:43 PM | message detail
*beating MGS4 and FFX

From: WarThaNemesis2 | #451
If Braid beats Persona 4, does that mean Braid > Street Fighter 4? :P


I don't really buy that Persona 4=SF4. I didn't even before SF4 won.
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Justin_Crossing | Posted 10/27/2010 7:37:41 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #095
To me, GTAIV/RSE is Halo 3/Sunshine Part 2.


I don't think RSE is as big of a black sheep as Sunshine is >____>
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Big Bob | Posted 10/27/2010 7:38:14 PM | message detail
It's not "Pokemon vs. GTA", it's "The worst Pokemon generation" vs. "the best-selling GTA game". [citation needed]
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/27/2010 7:40:19 PM | message detail
GTAIV looked a good bit stronger than D/P least year. D/P>R/S/E. It seems kind of simple to me.

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DFF
Qwaar | Posted 10/27/2010 7:40:19 PM | message detail
I hope Ulti is wrong on this, as I have MP going very far in this contest.
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