GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 928

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XxSoulxX | Posted 10/25/2010 9:31:47 AM | message detail
Wrong. It looked hard to gauge. And you know what? You could have said the exact same thing about Okami before 2009. It looked a lot worse than NMH from its previous polls before that. I do have to wonder where all this strength came from though. Amaterasu was decent but again hard to judge last year and the same is true of Travis(though weaker than Amaterasu, don't get me wrong).

This match was never in question. Okami was going to win easily, it was just a matter of how much it would win by. It's doing pretty impressive right now though.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/25/2010 9:33:18 AM | message detail

From: XxSoulxX | #101
Wrong. It looked hard to gauge. And you know what? You could have said the exact same thing about Okami before 2009. It looked a lot worse than NMH from its previous polls before that. I do have to wonder where all this strength came from though. Amaterasu was decent but again hard to judge last year and the same is true of Travis(though weaker than Amaterasu, don't get me wrong).

This match was never in question. Okami was going to win easily, it was just a matter of how much it would win by. It's doing pretty impressive right now though.


Like I said, I thought Okami would win.

Just in the region of 55-60% with a small chance of upset.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/25/2010 9:34:01 AM | message detail
You mean that thing with literally no viable comparison to Okami?

I really doubt Okami would get killed by Littlebigplanet considering what it did on MGS3. LBP is nowhere near MGS3.

-"significantly" is debatable given last year's complete lack of reliable stats.

Well, it's fodder to mid-carder. That's pretty significant to me.

-there was no comparison to be made. All we had was a very rough idea of their relative popularity. similar sales and reception, makes sense

As we all know, those never work on GameFAQs anymore reliably than just looking at plain contest history. You ignored the most important data. Just give it up.


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*is Dranze*
Dr. Football swept me.
Greyfeld | Posted 10/25/2010 9:34:35 AM | message detail
This is only my second competition, and even I knew that Okami was going to put boot to ass on NMH without doing any research. That's what happens when you actually pay attention to character battles.
Kefka_of_Light | Posted 10/25/2010 9:36:30 AM | message detail
What's the board opinion on L4D vs. GoW?

I've got L4D in my bracket and it's the only match for the next few days that I'm really worried about.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/25/2010 9:37:37 AM | message detail
I'll just say this final thing on the matter.

Basis Dranze, basis!

Oh and there is no contest history to be compared. You made wild assumptions, I actually thought about it. You wound up being right, congratulations.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/25/2010 9:39:08 AM | message detail
What were the wild assumptions? Do you really think a game barely beating Okami's port and being tripled by LBG is an ASSUMPTION for weakness?

That's how you compare game popularity. Polls. Sales and reception don't always work on GameFAQs.
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*is Dranze*
Dr. Football swept me.
ZenOfThunder | Posted 10/25/2010 9:40:17 AM | message detail

From: Kefka_of_Light | #105
What's the board opinion on L4D vs. GoW?

I've got L4D in my bracket and it's the only match for the next few days that I'm really worried about.


God of War should take it. Kratos usually does well in these things and the only time we got to see Left 4 Dead it didn't do too hot. Neither did Louis and Zoey in that vote in, actually...
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TRE Public Account | Posted 10/25/2010 9:40:48 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3471
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3360

I don't see how you could possibly think No More Heroes had a chance. Amaterasu also has a history of beating her expectations time and again.
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ZFS | Posted 10/25/2010 9:42:30 AM | message detail
I wouldn't always rely on polls, because they have just as much chance at leading you astray as anything else. It's usually best to take a bunch of different things into account to get the best result -- reception has been a big part of my reasoning for taking the picks I have this contest. At the end of the day, though, there was zero indication this would be close, or that there was ever any doubt in the winner. Okami is significantly more revered, significantly more appealing, and a much easier game to vote for when a person hasn't played either.

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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/25/2010 9:45:00 AM | message detail
Ugh. I hate getting the matches wrong where the only reason i argue for it in the first place is because I love the game.

But honestly, I'm shocked there was a Crew majority after the stunt Mother 3 pulled yesterday. If you wanted a good argument for the strength of downloadable games, or people voting for something they've never played, that was basically the perfect example.

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DFF
Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/25/2010 9:48:15 AM | message detail
You're doing it again.

You assume LBP is weak, or that Okami would do any better in that poll based off of its 2006 appearance.
You assume the more played version would be weaker(remakes usually are, but higher selling ones are untested)
You assume I didn't do the research!

I'm just saying, a gap this big comes completely out of left field. NMH is basically untested, but what tiny shreds of knowledge there are did not suggest this.
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Kotetsu534 | Posted 10/25/2010 9:49:32 AM | message detail
I didn't think it was possible for Okami to overperform relative to expectations again!

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I predict and analyse the Game of the Decade contest here:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56817040
Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/25/2010 9:50:26 AM | message detail

From: Kotetsu534 | #113
I didn't think it was possible for Okami to overperform relative to expectations again!


Always bet on Ama
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/25/2010 9:50:37 AM | message detail
Oh, and hooo boy Okami. Metroid Prime had better watch out. Being completely serious here.

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DFF
NoDicePwn | Posted 10/25/2010 9:52:16 AM | message detail
Potato, I am sorry Demons Souls lost. I know how much you love that game and I even nommed it for you. :(
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/25/2010 9:52:26 AM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #115
Oh, and hooo boy Okami. Metroid Prime had better watch out. Being completely serious here.


Before this match, I would have though SO3 was comparable to both. After this match, I don't know what to believe anymore.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/25/2010 9:52:39 AM | message detail
You assume LBP is weak, or that Okami would do any better in that poll based off of its 2006 appearance.

I'm talking about its 2009 appearance against MGS3. Why do you keep referencing prior to 2009 and not after it?

I didn't say LBP is weak, but you'd be crazy to think it'd give MGS3 a close match while being in the same exact contest. SFF or not, it's not close to it in popularity.

You assume the more played version would be weaker(remakes usually are, but higher selling ones are untested)

Ports generally do worse than their original games. This has been said thousands of times to you for quite a while now and you admitted to this once. I don't see why this is hard to accept.

I'm just saying, a gap this big comes completely out of left field.

It does have you have no idea how to interpret contest history and think sales is all there is. Most people predicted a killing, actually.
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*is Dranze*
Dr. Football swept me.
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/25/2010 9:53:32 AM | message detail
Thanks, Albion.

I would take NMH>SO3 by a little bit. But Okami might be scoring some SFF here. But isn't it a night match?

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DFF
MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/25/2010 9:55:16 AM | message detail
Cult SFF ftw.
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*is Dranze*
Dr. Football swept me.
Kotetsu534 | Posted 10/25/2010 9:56:11 AM | message detail
In Europe, Okami came second in that fourway with MGS3/WoW/Halo 2.

Make your time, Prime. (Half-joking)
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I predict and analyse the Game of the Decade contest here:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56817040
Ultimaphazon | Posted 10/25/2010 9:57:27 AM | message detail
Let's not get carried away here. Okami > Prime isn't happening. It would wreck all brackets, and I would still love every second of it, but that's just not going to happen.

Star Ocean is a lot stronger than NMH. Okami could put up 45%, but I doubt it gets much closer than that.

Fun fact: my first instinct was actually taking Okami out of its division. Then I decided that that was a real bias pick, and picked it to bow out to Prime.
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NoDicePwn | Posted 10/25/2010 9:57:30 AM | message detail
Make your time, Prime. (Half-joking)

I'm not even sure if you should be joking. Prime is a joke in Asia and really bad in Europe. With it being a night vote, well... stranger things have happened, haven't they?
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/25/2010 9:59:21 AM | message detail
I have already answered all of those before and see where this is going. I hate when debates turn into two guys repeating themselves endlessly.

I should add that GotY polls and character battle results are almost uncomparable due to the number of entrants. That's worth mentioning. You can compare games to each other via them, but that's it.

Otherwise I'm ending this here as all you're doing is misinterpreting or worse, ignoring, what I have said.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/25/2010 9:59:39 AM | message detail
Why is Star Ocean stronger necessarily stronger than NMH? It lose to Jet Grind Radio and Plants vs. Zombies in the vote-ins.

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DFF
Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/25/2010 10:01:16 AM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #125
Why is Star Ocean stronger necessarily stronger than NMH? It lose to Jet Grind Radio and Plants vs. Zombies in the vote-ins.


Part of the reason people call this SFF.

It does make sense, as they are both semi-cult Wii action games.
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Ultimaphazon | Posted 10/25/2010 10:01:53 AM | message detail
It lost to JGR and PvsZ in a match with 3 other jrpgs. I think SO3 suffered some serious LFF/SFF in that votein.
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NoDicePwn | Posted 10/25/2010 10:02:15 AM | message detail
It does make sense, as they are both semi-cult Wii action games.

Okami isn't getting its votes from its 2 year late Wii port.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/25/2010 10:04:32 AM | message detail

From: NoDicePwn | #128
It does make sense, as they are both semi-cult Wii action games.

Okami isn't getting its votes from its 2 year late Wii port.


Even though that made up most of the player base? Why wouldn't it?
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/25/2010 10:04:50 AM | message detail
should add that GotY polls and character battle results are almost uncomparable due to the number of entrants.

Even so, NMH not getting killed in the match Okami was in is a stretch. Amaterasu is also a more recognizable character than Travis on GameFAQs.

At the very least, nothing still pointed to NMH winning. Nothing at all did if you want to take that route. Even sales wise, it looks like it only sold a few ten thousands more.. which isn't really that significant.





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*is Dranze*
Dr. Football swept me.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/25/2010 10:07:23 AM | message detail
And to top off my thoughts, you strike me as the sort of person that would intentionally feed people bad advice to screw up their brackets.

Not at all. Perfect example: if people had listened to me in 2007, noone would have been burned by Pikachu's run. I have my bad picks too, but definitely more of my seemingly off-the-wall picks pan out than not. The problem is, the ones I do get wrong often screw me over big time.

Also, what's the deal with Capcom the last 2 years? Every Capcom entrant has looked great the last 2 contests. I think Okami might give Metroid Prime a run at this rate.
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Blairville | Posted 10/25/2010 10:33:15 AM | message detail
Okami's doing this well because Ammy is in MvC3, of course!

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ZFS | Posted 10/25/2010 10:36:21 AM | message detail
It does make sense, as they are both semi-cult Wii action games.

Okami is far more of a PS2 action game than it is a Wii one. The Wii version sold decently, but its first run on the PS2 in America equaled what the game did total on the Wii.

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Haste_2 | Posted 10/25/2010 10:54:50 AM | message detail
Aw yeah, I called it: Okami beats NMH worse than DMC beats Mother 3! ...in my mind and in the Oracle. Granted, I'm doing horrible in it...I'm just doing bold predictions rather than trying to strategize this time ;)...I guess the reason is because I thought I'd do bad if I tried because I've been out of the contest loop for so long. I think I would have done quite well if I tried, in this early retrospect. Ah, well.

Okami beats NMH worse than DMC beats Mother 3. Remember though that Okami is just a touch below Halo 2 which was just a bit behind the other Halos strength-wise, so Okami isn't that bad. Actually, NMH is a bit weaker than I honestly expected, though. Cult-game SFF, clearly! ;)

There's no way Okami is beating Metroid Prime, though. Then again, this IS GameFAQs contests we're talking about, so anything could happen. =P Sure, you could use the logic of NMH > SO3 to say MP > Okami, but remember we have to factor in our expectations of Okami and MP themselves, as well. It's a major fallacy to judge an entrant's strength purely on their opponent. Of course, I know you guys are only showing the possibilities, and also often exaggerate.

Okami's looking great to beat MM9! I was kind of worried yesterday about how MM9 won despite its HORRIBLE box art... because, you know, MM9 will probably do better next round.

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/25/2010 10:57:40 AM | message detail
I expected Okami to get out of this fourpack, based solely on Amataweraseryu's performance in the character battles, but this is really impressive. Then again, it could just be No More Heroes being bottom of the barrel fodder, but we'll see what Okami can do to MM9 next round. If it can break the doubling, I'd consider it a serious contender to upset Metroid Prime.
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Greyfeld | Posted 10/25/2010 11:39:51 AM | message detail
I should add that GotY polls and character battle results are almost uncomparable due to the number of entrants. That's worth mentioning. You can compare games to each other via them, but that's it.

I would take L4D over NMH.

Your opinion is bad, and you should feel bad.
HaRRicH | Posted 10/25/2010 11:40:32 AM | message detail
Did I hear "cult SFF" and "Wii SFF" be used seriously to describe today's match? Come on, gang.

Impressive performance by Okami though. I have to still favor MP pretty easily -- I'll take it to beat Halo 3 after SMS got ~47.5% while we saw Okami lose to Halo 2 last year -- but Okami may still impress. It may break 45% if things go well. I don't see the need to fret though, unless DMC3 impresses and MM9 blows it next round...and even then, the only shocker to come from those happening compared to our pre-contest expectations would be Mother 3's strength.
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TheCodeisBosco | Posted 10/25/2010 11:41:25 AM | message detail
Okami's looking more impressive than Prime?

...this freakin' contest, man.

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OOF
My bracket's on life support already. :\
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 10/25/2010 11:59:26 AM | message detail
Cult SFF, that's a new one! Thank you B8.
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FFI3_Lightning | Posted 10/25/2010 12:16:51 PM | message detail
I wonder which is more popular here..Okami or SOTC?SOTC sold way more in reality but but are quite popular here as cult classics.


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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/25/2010 12:25:44 PM | message detail
It's also possible that Okami is getting the Yushin Okami vote.
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Ultimaphazon | Posted 10/25/2010 12:33:29 PM | message detail
I think SotC > Okami on this site.
Which means: gogogo SotC > MGS2 upset train.
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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 10/25/2010 12:34:33 PM | message detail
If I'm counting right, Prime/Okami should be on a Wednesday morning. So no weekend reprieve for Nintendo. I can't quite see it happening, but I'd be really happy if it did.
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Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 10/25/2010 12:53:30 PM | message detail
Can anyone tell me why Okami is doing okay in these contests?I don't get it.
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Greyfeld | Posted 10/25/2010 1:06:47 PM | message detail
Can anyone tell me why Okami is doing okay in these contests?I don't get it.

It's like Zelda, but even more Japanese.
Ultimaphazon | Posted 10/25/2010 1:27:21 PM | message detail
It's like Zelda, but so much better.

Fixed it for you.
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NoDicePwn | Posted 10/25/2010 1:40:25 PM | message detail
Man, I wouldn't of thought that the kiddies would favor No More Heroes so significantly over Okami..
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/25/2010 2:41:15 PM | message detail
Canada doesn't seem to care about Okami. Shadow won last year while Luigi got 65%.
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GotD Bracket: 8/10 Today's Matches: MM9 & Okami
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/25/2010 3:00:40 PM | message detail
Heh, Canada is singlehandedly bringing North America to below the world average.

Though to be fair, I didn't play either of those games, so I didn't even bother voting.
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transients | Posted 10/25/2010 3:01:53 PM | message detail
it's a Wii game. Wii games always do well in the daytime.

except Galaxy! man Galaxy is so weird that I could see it making a huge comeback. I wish it got a more interesting path.
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