GameFAQs Contests

Upon seeing the results of the last two polls, Nintendo announces the release of Mother 3 on WiiWare. In a plan similar to FF4: The After Years, each chapter will be released for $20 each.

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Solid Snake, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.
---
Wylvane
NaturalChemical is a horrible user.

Wheeeeeee
---
Support Otacon (Metal Gear Solid) for Character Battle IX!
http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/1950/banner4otacon.jpg

So, I'm going through all my battle picks, and on every contestable match, I'm switching my pick. I figure since I've missed every contested match so far, picking the opposite for the rest of the competition will probably net me more wins.

Crisis Core > FFXII

---
GT: TriggerTRE // PSN ID: SolidTRE
GOTD SWEET 16: FO3, Halo, MP, GTA3, SSBM, SSBB, Z:TP, KH2, FFX, FFIX, RE4, CC:FF7, MSG3, MGS4, Z:MM, Z:WW

Crisis Core > FFXII

There's something I can get behind. Die, FFXII, die.
---
A pro isn't someone who sacrifices himself for his job. That's just a fool. - Reno, FFVII
http://i25.tinypic.com/2cp5chf.jpg

Crono > Mario
---
Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.

From: Greyfeld | #003
So, I'm going through all my battle picks, and on every contestable match, I'm switching my pick. I figure since I've missed every contested match so far, picking the opposite for the rest of the competition will probably net me more wins.

Instead, those games you switched to will now lose, because the Battle Contest was designed to make you constantly feel like a failure, making you get every debatable match wrong just to spite you.

At least, that's how I'm starting to see it from my end.
---
Wylvane
Ainoxi is a horrible user.

Crisis Core > FFXII

That's not a contested match, there's no way FF12 is losing.

Though i originally had WC3>Morrowind. Gotta change that one.

Instead, those games you switched to will now lose, because the Battle Contest was designed to make you constantly feel like a failure, making you get every debatable match wrong just to spite you.

At least, that's how I'm starting to see it from my end.

Yeah that's how I'm starting to feel too -.-

For the Battle Challenge, some matches are much more acceptable losses than others. Namely, matches around a lot of other debatable matches are not as important, because you're much less likely to end up banking a large amount from those matches anyway. Debatable matches that are surrounded by lots of easy matches- those are critical.
---
Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.

From: red sox 777 | #010
For the Battle Challenge, some matches are much more acceptable losses than others. Namely, matches around a lot of other debatable matches are not as important, because you're much less likely to end up banking a large amount from those matches anyway. Debatable matches that are surrounded by lots of easy matches- those are critical.

Definitely true, but losing all these debatable matches off the bat makes me lose faith in accurately predicting those key debatable matches that I actually need to score on to have a chance of winning.
---
Wylvane
GuessMyUserName is a horrible user.

From: Greyfeld | #008
Crisis Core > FFXII

That's not a contested match, there's no way FF12 is losing.

Though i originally had WC3>Morrowind. Gotta change that one.

Ha, wrong on both counts. I strongly considered taking Crisis Core as it just seemed to perfect an upset. ZackFAQs all over again.

And there's no way Wacraft 3 is losing to Morrowind. People think Morrowind will be as strong as Oblivion for some weird reason.
---
http://i49.tinypic.com/2ry672r.jpg

Definitely true, but losing all these debatable matches off the bat makes me lose faith in accurately predicting those key debatable matches that I actually need to score on to have a chance of winning.

That's exactly the problem.

You know how many points I have right now? Zero. Bupkis. I have 600 points not banked, and Demon's Souls riding for the battle win, and I'll be back to zero come 9 AM. The next debatable match is RE5>ToS tomorrow night, then WC3>Morrowind a couple days afterward (which I know are going to draw a lot of banks), but considering I've missed every debatable match so far it's like "Pfft yeah, I'm totally gonna make it through the gauntlet with points intact."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EDWSeFvIP5s
---
I have no idea how Metroid: Other M got any scores lower than 60%.

Ha, wrong on both counts. I strongly considered taking Crisis Core as it just seemed to perfect an upset. ZackFAQs all over again.

And there's no way Wacraft 3 is losing to Morrowind. People think Morrowind will be as strong as Oblivion for some weird reason.

FF12 and CC are both unpopular titles, but 12 has more exposure, being a console title, and has a ton of people that love the game. I think I could count the number of people on one hand that I've talked to that actually thought Crisis Core was more than just "decent."

I have no idea about the other match... Warcraft 3 is the better game, but Morrowind (again) has more exposure, being multiplatform. Also, I wouldn't expect most WoW players to actually know what Warcraft 3 is.

And to top off my thoughts, you strike me as the sort of person that would intentionally feed people bad advice to screw up their brackets.

Currently I'm planning to bank either on WWF No Mercy/Fire Emblem: Path of Radiance (would be banking a streak of 14) or Pokemon RSE/GTA IV (streak of 18). The matches up until the No Mercy/Fire Emblem match look pretty clear-cut except for Warcraft III/Morrowind, so with some luck I'll actually be able to have a choice of whether or not to bank come No Mercy/Fire Emblem.
---
Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.

Curse you, Mega Man!

Bass, do something about those votals now!

It looks like the late night North America votes keep tacking on the lead for MM9, and if trends continue, Europe and Asia will help DS cut some of those numbers back over the course of the night. But I'm like 95% sure the numbers won't be high enough to swing the lead over. And even if it was, the morning vote would swing it back in MM9's favor. So yeah, this match is pretty much locked up.

DS can probably cut a couple of hundred votes through the night if Europe continues to favour it, but unless it improves in North America it has no chance.

---
I predict and analyse the Game of the Decade contest here:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56817040

thing is, it's not even MM9 picking up steam, it's DS dropping off. It's not even getting 200 votes per update at this point.

I am liking this Greyfeld fellow and I hope he sticks around when the contest is over.
---
"If only there were some way I could have sex..." -SmartMuffin

And yes I read your name as Greyfield for like 2 months
---
"Oh because God is going to roll into a ball and attack Articuno. Really.
He's ****ing God." -Sir Chris

o.O say what?

*Is afraid... very afraid*

I'm not planning on banking until Pokemon Ruby/GTA4. All matches till then I feel pretty confident in.
---
http://i56.tinypic.com/o5thna.jpg
http://i51.tinypic.com/33kbvba.jpg

And Demon's Souls just lost Europe.

If there was any hope of a comeback by anybody, it's squashed now. Guess I'll have to take my chances on a long streak after tonight's match is over.

*sigh*

Yeah, I should just retire from these contests. 7/11 after this match.

My next upset is...LBP > GTA3.

Yeeeeeeaaaaaaaah
---
Completely decimated by Dr. Football in the Guru Contest!

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Metal_Gear_Solid_4_vs_Portal_vs_BioShock_vs_LittleBigPlanet_2009

Considering LBP got doubled by Bioshock last year, I don't think you'll be seeing that upset happening.

From: Greyfeld | #027
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Metal_Gear_Solid_4_vs_Portal_vs_BioShock_vs_LittleBigPlanet_2009

Considering LBP got doubled by Bioshock last year, I don't think you'll be seeing that upset happening.

Oh look, it's LBP's worst nightmare sharing the poll with it: Metal Gear Solid 4.
---
http://img.imgcake.com/leonpngpe.png
http://img.imgcake.com/squalloweenpngem.png

If it makes you feel any better, after this match I'll be 6/11. Fortunately, I have DS losing to Okami in round 2, but the bottom half of my Division 1 is totally borked.

Oh look, it's LBP's worst nightmare sharing the poll with it: Metal Gear Solid 4.

Considering the disparity in gameplay types between LBP and MGS, I think the "Sony Exclusive Factor" is probably a very very small part of LBP's bad showing.

I could be wrong, but logic tells me that only the most fanatical of fanboys would split votes that way... which is only really a very vocal minority.

From: Greyfeld | #030
Considering the disparity in gameplay types between LBP and MGS, I think the "Sony Exclusive Factor" is probably a very very small part of LBP's bad showing.

That was back when MGS4 and LBP were the PS3 games, so I think there's a chance MGS4 hurt it pretty bad.
---
Support Morrigan Aensland (Darkstalkers) for Character Battle IX!
http://img713.imageshack.us/img713/9302/banner5morrigan2.jpg

Anyway, hopefully I'll be back here in 36-ish hours (and six hours ahead, now I'm gonna know how all these Euros feel!), and I'll be catching up on this topic, including Okami's big win over NMH, ToS handily winning over RE5, and GoW getting a scare from L4D!
---
Support Barret Wallace (Final Fantasy VII) for Character Battle IX!
http://img687.imageshack.us/img687/3834/banner1barret.jpg

From: Greyfeld | #027
Considering LBP got doubled by Bioshock last year, I don't think you'll be seeing that upset happening.

I take offence at the notion BioShock isn't a powerhouse!
---
<.<

lol

Here's a confession for you. I've never played Bioshock, because I get freaked out easily and have problems with nightmares.

You have robbed yourself of one of the greatest experiences one can have.
---
I brand you a fool.

*Shrugs* I'll live. I prefer to avoid waking up in a hyperventilating panic.

Bioshock isn't scary.

Man, I'm just looking through the Guru (holy crap my bracket was finally added), and more people took Mario Sunshine to the division finals than Halo 1. And even more have Uncharted 2 winning there. Looks like taking Fallout 3 > Halo in the Northeast Division will net me some big points.
---
http://i49.tinypic.com/2ry672r.jpg

Also surprising is how much of a favourite Half-Life 2 is to get to the end of its division.
---
http://i49.tinypic.com/2ry672r.jpg

If MM to the Final Four pans out, you're in good shape BT!
---
I've seen things you people wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain.

From: Greyfeld | #015
And to top off my thoughts, you strike me as the sort of person that would intentionally feed people bad advice to screw up their brackets.

Nah, Turtle is just that dumb. He makes good picks sometimes, but who doesn't? Even those of us who are more unconventional don't take him seriously.

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #038
Man, I'm just looking through the Guru (holy crap my bracket was finally added), and more people took Mario Sunshine to the division finals than Halo 1. And even more have Uncharted 2 winning there. Looks like taking Fallout 3 > Halo in the Northeast Division will net me some big points.

That said, I'm starting to regret having Uncharted 2 over Halo 1. Even though I know Uncharted 2 was overrated by the GotY, somehow I forgot that Halo 1 was never really that weak to begin with and still let Uncharted 2's supposed strength influence me.

I'll still get three points I guess, but my only hope is that Halo 3 is actually the strongest Halo and beats both Halo 1 and Uncharted 2. That or Uncharted 2 is actually strong after all and beats Halo 1.
---
Wylvane
Coffee Ninja is a horrible user.

after watching DMC3 suck so badly with Mother 3, Halo's 65% on Ninja Gaiden doesn't really look so good. not sure what to make of that pack, but it seems like a tossup between UC2 and Halo to me.
---
xyzzy

Today's match, however, makes Uncharted 2, LittleBigPlanet, and inFamous (and Fallout 3 by extension) look bad, however, for their positions. So Uncharted 2 will likely defeat Street Fighter IV, but then what?

Also for what it's worth the (lol) x-stats from the previous contest suggest that Half-Life 2 is going to the Final Four, and to be fair if PS3 exclusives continue to look bad for the rest of the contest, well, you only have to think that Fallout 3 isn't as potent as it looks.

So I've basically given up on LBP > GTAIII, but I still have faith in RSE > GTAIV because Pokemon should be strong.

Wait Ngamer said that he took Prime to reach the final four, right? Wowzers.
---
I have no idea how Metroid: Other M got any scores lower than 60%.

sooo Okami is still got a stronger base than No More Heroes right?

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

RSE is without a doubt the weakest pokemon.

Okami > Metroid Prime confirmed.
---
Wylvane
Not_Wylvane is a horrible user.

Mother 3>NMH!
---
Uguu~

I'm feeling confident about my Okami> MM9 Pick now.
---
You may take Mr. Rogers down, but I will be back and become more powerful than you ever imagine
"tgs is taking it alone"

gamefaqs loving Okami is awesome. MM9 getting destroyed next round.
---
...