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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 927

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/24/2010 10:25:23 AM | message detail
Mother ****er

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Solid Snake, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.
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voltch | Posted 10/24/2010 10:26:21 AM | message detail
TOO EARLY
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Nyoro~n
SubDeity | Posted 10/24/2010 10:35:31 AM | message detail
You know, I don't think this is as crazy as everybody is acting like it is. GameFAQS voters are more knowledgeable and old-school than gamers in general, so a fair number have probably played Mother 3 and a ton of those who haven't still know what it is and know that it's supposed to be good. It's an effect similar to Deus Ex, I'd say.
Justin_Crossing | Posted 10/24/2010 10:35:31 AM | message detail
You know, after Halo 3 > Sunshine, I'm not sure about Paper Mario: TTYD > Gears of War
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MajinZidane | Posted 10/24/2010 10:35:32 AM | message detail
hi voltch
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/24/2010 10:37:07 AM | message detail
Mother 3 just isn't that obscure. I knew what it was and with any game that is actually obscure to Gamefaqs/Nintendo, I wouldn't have known about it.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
Justin_Crossing | Posted 10/24/2010 10:37:11 AM | message detail

From: SubDeity | #003
You know, I don't think this is as crazy as everybody is acting like it is. GameFAQS voters are more knowledgeable and old-school than gamers in general, so a fair number have probably played Mother 3 and a ton of those who haven't still know what it is and know that it's supposed to be good. It's an effect similar to Deus Ex, I'd say.


This is a correlation I can take to the bank with Golden Sun tbqh
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~Acting on Impulse~
Greyfeld | Posted 10/24/2010 10:38:20 AM | message detail
You know, after Halo 3 > Sunshine, I'm not sure about Paper Mario: TTYD > Gears of War

Halo is pretty much the highest rated shooter franchise on this site (maybe tied with CoD), despite consistently being heavily anti-voted. Gears would probably have to fight L4D for last place.
Eeeevil Overlord | Posted 10/24/2010 10:42:18 AM | message detail
Bah, my Oracle predictions have been so bad today. Undershooting Metroid by 10%, overshooting DMC3 by 20%.
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TheCodeisBosco | Posted 10/24/2010 10:43:14 AM | message detail
Mother 3 is avoiding the doubling? Man, aside from Deus Ex winning its match, that's probably the biggest shock of the contest so far!

Gears would probably have to fight L4D for last place.

I'd take Left 4 Dead over Gears of War without a second thought. But of course, I'd strongly consider taking L4D over Paper Mario: TTYD as well, so...

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HALO 3 > SUPER MARIO SUNSHINE:
I blame Arby 'n' the Chief!
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/24/2010 10:44:16 AM | message detail
I don't see how this means anything for Demon's Souls. If anything, it makes me feel better about HL2 > God of War
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Kotetsu534 | Posted 10/24/2010 10:47:09 AM | message detail
Yeah, I expect this just means action games are poor. Still though, I am astounded. Vaguely happy, but astounded!

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Biolizard28 | Posted 10/24/2010 10:47:25 AM | message detail
Again.

This is what you get for using an SFF'd, unliked character as a litmus test for Mother 3's strength.

Yes, unliked. I don't recall anyone but Mother fans giving Lucas any praise in the months leading up to Brawl.
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TheCodeisBosco | Posted 10/24/2010 10:53:02 AM | message detail
If anything, it makes me feel better about HL2 > God of War

I agree with this. I almost had God of War winning this division in my bracket, but in the end, I decided to stick with Half-Life 2... and from the looks of it, that was a smart choice!

Unfortunately though, this makes me feel really anxious about TWEWY/Dead Rising...

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HALO 3 > SUPER MARIO SUNSHINE:
I blame Arby 'n' the Chief!
Greyfeld | Posted 10/24/2010 10:53:46 AM | message detail
If anything, Street Fighter > Sonic, and Halo > Mario should, in my mind, lock in Demon's Souls > MM9.

Before anybody asks, those two matches have proven that people will vote for the game they liked better, rather than voting for the iconic character. And unless I'm mistaken, MM9 sold something like 60k units, while Demon's Souls sold over half a million (many of those in Europe, and this is a night match). Aside from all that, DS has a pretty strong fanbase, and no doubt have spent a lot of time on GameFAQS looking up boss information and world/character tendencies.

Of course, I've lost every contested match thusfar, so feel free to take my opinion with a grain of salt lol.
charmander6000 | Posted 10/24/2010 10:57:30 AM | message detail
You can't argue name factor with Halo and Street Fighter, they're pretty well known too.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 6/8 Today's Matches: MP & DMC3
charmander6000 | Posted 10/24/2010 11:02:24 AM | message detail
Also the 60k seems to be first day sales on the Wii.

Across all three systems it's probably not that far from Demon's Souls.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 6/8 Today's Matches: MP & DMC3
HaRRicH | Posted 10/24/2010 11:04:24 AM | message detail

From: Greyfeld | #015
If anything, Street Fighter > Sonic, and Halo > Mario should, in my mind, lock in Demon's Souls > MM9.


I've thought the same thing for awhile, but two things:

1) MM9 was received very well. SMS and SA2 were not (even if SA2 was, 3D Sonic was not).
2) Halo 3 and SF4 have big brand names behind them. Demon's Souls does not.

Still a toss-up in my book. Rooting for MM9 (which I think was actually closer to a million-seller than 60,000), but I'm gambling on DS and hope I don't lose a nice streak of points.
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/24/2010 11:05:23 AM | message detail
In North America only too. Also 140k in one week

Though looking at other places that number seems to be disputed.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 6/8 Today's Matches: MP & DMC3
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/24/2010 11:08:28 AM | message detail

From: HaRRicH | #018
2) Halo 3 and SF4 have big brand names behind them.


Bigger than Mario or Sonic? No, especially not in Halo's case.

Also, LOL action games

ToS > GoW confirmed

LOL Capcom games that aren't RE4

Demon's Souls > MM9 confirmed
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ZeBoXeS | Posted 10/24/2010 11:08:31 AM | message detail
The only match I fear is Morrowind vs Warcraft 3. I'm afraid the Blizzard fans will overpower the game, even though I think that Morrowind deserves to be Game of the Decade.

It's surely better than Oblivion, at any rate.
Greyfeld | Posted 10/24/2010 11:09:22 AM | message detail
that's why i said take my opinion with a grain of salt ;)

Though I still think DS has a better rally factor than MM9.
Greyfeld | Posted 10/24/2010 11:11:09 AM | message detail
an Mario or Sonic? No, especially not in Halo's case.

That's another thing. Mario lost to Halo in a night vote, where Halo is the bomber of all bombers. If that doesn't say "we vote for the better game" then I don't know what does.
hylianknight3 | Posted 10/24/2010 11:12:03 AM | message detail
Dang, we lost France and Bolivia to Devil May Cry.
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SubDeity | Posted 10/24/2010 11:12:05 AM | message detail
Since people have mentioned that Mother 3 is being blown out in Asia, I think now would be a good time to mention that the main Asian voting bloc is the Philippines, not Japan.
SubDeity | Posted 10/24/2010 11:13:01 AM | message detail
Also, this match furthers my theory that the American Heartland is, for some reason, classic RPG territory. Mother 3 is still holding on in SD and Wyoming.
Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/24/2010 11:16:35 AM | message detail
what the hell kind of correlation can you possibly take from this match and put it into that match

Less popular Nintendo-handheld JRPG vs. more mainstream Capcom action game.

The key difference though, is that TWEWY isn't nearly as obscure as Mother 3, it sold OK, while Dead Rising isn't nearly as liked or popular as DMC3
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/24/2010 11:18:49 AM | message detail
Bigger than Mario or Sonic? No, especially not in Halo's case.

Okay maybe not as many people have heard of Halo compare to Mario/Sonic, but once you get high enough it stops mattering.

If you wanted to go with name value not mattering you should be looking at Deus Ex > Rock Band 2
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 6/8 Today's Matches: MP & DMC3
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/24/2010 11:21:30 AM | message detail

From: SubDeity | #026
Also, this match furthers my theory that the American Heartland is, for some reason, classic RPG territory. Mother 3 is still holding on in SD and Wyoming.


That's awesome.

Can someone who has played Mother 3 explain how good it is? Remember, I'm like the biggest EarthBound fan around. So if I liked that, will I like M3?
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TheCodeisBosco | Posted 10/24/2010 11:22:09 AM | message detail
Yeah, as a Dead Rising supporter, this match is definitely a buzzkill. I'm trying to stay optimistic - Neku lost to Laharl, after all - but man, DMC3 is looking really lousy here, and Dead Rising should be a couple notches below it.

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HALO 3 > SUPER MARIO SUNSHINE:
I blame Arby 'n' the Chief!
Big Bob | Posted 10/24/2010 11:22:45 AM | message detail
Can someone who has played Mother 3 explain how good it is? Remember, I'm like the biggest EarthBound fan around. So if I liked that, will I like M3?

Take everything you hate about jRPGs and throw it out the window, leaving only the good stuff. That's Mother 3.
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/24/2010 11:22:50 AM | message detail
That's another thing. Mario lost to Halo in a night vote, where Halo is the bomber of all bombers. If that doesn't say "we vote for the better game" then I don't know what does.

Just because Halo choked in the past doesn't mean it'll lose to anything. Plus people who have played Mega Man 9 generally liked it as well.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 6/8 Today's Matches: MP & DMC3
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/24/2010 11:24:34 AM | message detail

From: Big Bob | #031
Can someone who has played Mother 3 explain how good it is? Remember, I'm like the biggest EarthBound fan around. So if I liked that, will I like M3?

Take everything you hate about jRPGs and throw it out the window, leaving only the good stuff. That's Mother 3.


As someone slogging through DQ9 with a solo minstrel, I find it hard to believe Mother 3 throws out everything about JRPGs that sucks <_<
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 10/24/2010 11:25:39 AM | message detail

From: Big Bob | #031
Take everything you hate about jRPGs and throw it out the window, leaving only the good stuff. That's Mother 3.


No, that's actually Chrono Trigger, but this is an interesting statement anyway. Everything I've heard about it has been hugely positive.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/24/2010 11:25:45 AM | message detail

From: TheCodeisBosco | #030
I'm trying to stay optimistic - Neku lost to Laharl, after all


Man, I don't know why people bring this up. Frank West would have a hard time beating Laharl based on his contest history.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/24/2010 11:29:49 AM | message detail
Last night's chart:

Time | M. Prime | Star Ocean | Votes
0:05 | 80.14% | 19.86% | 1012
1:00 | 76.80% | 23.20% | 7522
2:00 | 73.96% | 26.04% | 5000
3:00 | 72.09% | 27.91% | 3795
4:00 | 70.60% | 29.40% | 2854
5:00 | 71.36% | 29.03% | 2339
6:00 | 69.16% | 30.43% | 2202
7:00 | 70.38% | 29.62% | 2063
8:00 | 70.45% | 29.55% | 2139
9:00 | 73.13% | 26.87% | 2650
10:00 | 73.31% | 26.69% | 3226
11:00 | 74.43% | 25.57% | 3759
12:00 | 74.85% | 25.15% | 3892

The trends here are pretty easy to see. Great Power Hour for Prime, terrible deep night vote, and great morning vote. This is about what we expected.
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Big Bob | Posted 10/24/2010 11:37:25 AM | message detail
Well, to clarify,

-No random encounters
-Battle system that's more than just "mash Attack repeatedly"
-Magic and skills that are actually useful
-Storyline is both hilarious and touching
-Awesome soundtrack
-****ty inventory system that gives you more stuff than you could reasonably be expected to carry

All comes together to create Mother 3.

...Though I'll admit that I've only played it for like 2 hours. My best friend's been bugging me to play through it for a while, and he's half the gamer I am.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/24/2010 11:43:59 AM | message detail

From: Big Bob | #037
Though I'll admit that I've only played it for like 2 hours.


...

This is worse than the people today saying God of War is doomed.
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Greyfeld | Posted 10/24/2010 11:44:41 AM | message detail

Just because Halo choked in the past doesn't mean it'll lose to anything. Plus people who have played Mega Man 9 generally liked it as well.


Halo has repeatedly proven to have low-midcarder showings on this website. The fact that it won over Mario (even bad mario), during a night vote, speaks volumes to a game contest's tendency to bring out less series-voting than the average character battle.

Which is why I'm saying that Demon's Souls actually has a chance tonight, despite its opponent being Mega Man.

Again, I've lost every contested match thusfar, so take my opinion however you want.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/24/2010 11:49:43 AM | message detail
inb4 mm9 wins the board vote and TANKS
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/24/2010 11:53:42 AM | message detail
Even though MM9 is the board favourite and I have it in my bracket I do feel that DS should have been the favourite going in as its potential is a lot higher than MM9's.

I also see what you mean in the name brand can only do so much and I agree (Dark Link won't be near elite, CC won't win over FFXII ect.), but MM9 is different from SMS because the game is actually liked.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 6/8 Today's Matches: MP & DMC3
charmander6000 | Posted 10/24/2010 11:54:56 AM | message detail
inb4 mm9 wins the board vote and TANKS

It has to win the board vote (and decently) to have any chance.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 6/8 Today's Matches: MP & DMC3
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/24/2010 11:58:38 AM | message detail
Not to mention, this is a night match. MM9 is going to get hurt by Europe badly.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3447&region=EUR
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3453&region=EUR
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3456&region=EUR
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3478&region=EUR
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3481&region=EUR
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3494&region=EUR

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3750&region=EUR
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3804&region=EUR
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3831&region=EUR
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3844&region=EUR

So yeah, good luck, Mega Man.
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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 10/24/2010 12:00:38 PM | message detail
So much for Mother 3 being a joke! I'm glad it's doing decently.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 10/24/2010 12:05:09 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #038
...

This is worse than the people today saying God of War is doomed.


Against HL2 it is! ^_^
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pjbasis | Posted 10/24/2010 12:07:29 PM | message detail
This match does concern one thing for sure.

Brawl > everything

Clearly the strength of Mother 3 is a result of Lucas and Brawl.
Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/24/2010 12:25:33 PM | message detail
Again, I think it's more just peope knowing there's a big online stink about Mother 3. They've probably heard about it online. I think in general we give the voters too little credit.

From: TheCodeisBosco | #030Neku lost to Laharl, after allt.


Not only did he still look better than Frank West, if you go by this year's vote-in polls, Sho Minamimoto looked stronger than he did.

A(very popular admittedly) side character from TWEWY outshone the main character of Dead Rising.
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ZFS | Posted 10/24/2010 12:37:22 PM | message detail
Paper Mario: TTYD > Gears of War

Wait what why would take this

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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/24/2010 12:38:18 PM | message detail

From: ZFS | #048
Paper Mario: TTYD > Gears of War

Wait what why would take this


Gears of War is weaksauce.
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ZFS | Posted 10/24/2010 12:39:17 PM | message detail
Gears of War can be weaksauce all the same, but it ain't losing to Paper freakin' Mario. Come on now.

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